Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)

[Raskolnikov]

It's not a hard clear and the slot did legitimately lurk through most of the game non-nonchalant, but that's more anti-town than necessarily malicious... I guess the argument could be that impoetic lost motivation/lurked BECAUSE of d1 rb lynch but historically lynches like this are coinflips.

I would at least see the replacement if possible.

[Impoetic]

This is a liability lynch (oops) rather than a scum lynch, meaning mafia gets a free day even though I'm still considering subbing out (have been posting without being caught up so I'm pretty sure I'm further behind than you think, Shannon -- though the potential subber-inner would be that far behind too, they'd most likely be better than me) so the fact that I *am* subbing out should be cause for unvote unless you actually SR me, which I don't remember people voicing while I was actually active (except that brief wagon at d1 which dissipated just as briefly).

I'm beginning to think that with daytalk on shannon could have placed a quick vote on you to make your wagon look too easy/fast so that it would break up. Other people could reason it was my vote that did that but I know that if any vote was placed intentionally to make the wagon dissipate it was shannon's. That's when you followed up saying something like "wait don't speedlynch me guys I just saw like 3 votes" (quoting from memory) and then the wagon broke up soon after

Is that really the more obvious conclusion than "people crowded on the wagon because they could"? And does scum daytalk ever actually go that fast? Like, do scum really do things like that? Especially considering if shannon and I were the scumteam we wouldn't know that would be the result, and would be adding to the wagon? Normally when people talk about voting to influence other votes, it's "add pressure to the wagon and exploit group psychology".

Besides, you're saying if I'm scum, so is shannon, but there are arguments against shannon and the argument against me is, again, that I'm a liability, but I'll probably sub out anyway. This is just pre-flip associative tells, which leads me back to my previous post stating that any votes on me at this point should be due to actual scumreads.

Why didn't sub out or do more ages ago? I have been nagging you to vote since d1

That's what I'm asking myself.

[Impoetic]

For the record, when I was actually posting, I was trying to find a vote. I just couldn't find a good one.

Also, Rask replaced drealm, right? I had written down somewhere that drealm was town and I'm starting to think the disregard for the mechanics is towny from rask, too.

[Impoetic]

That came out wrong. I was looking at everyone posting and I couldn't pin down any reads that I felt comfortable pushing. It was bad, I know, and I realized that at the time, too.

[Raskolnikov]

The case atm from titus is impoetic is scum because titus got no result on her and shannon started attacking titus (before titus revealed). Otherwise titus herself said she'd consider roleblock as the explanation about as likely if not more.

But it is possible titus was roleblocked and shannon took it as opportunity without the explicit target being relevant.

Consider the following:

why is titus alive?

If you leave a claimed PR alive you're intending to mislynch them or at least have it as an option. And you follow up on this either directly attacking them or otherwise casting shade.
The pool of people that makes is Shannon, TTTT, ssbm_kyouko and partially drone.

Of all of these shannon's stance on titus hasn't really made sense (d2 wagon) whereas I think I can follow the progression of kyouko and sort of TTTT. Drone did vote titus but his logic was entirely on other things; if you're going to leave someone alive to take issue with you don't attack them for entirely different reasons or even back off in under 3 hours (2168), so I don't think he really qualifies.
Shannon didn't vote titus (shannon's style in general seems to be coming in at the end with the "compromise" vote rather than leading anything though) but cast a ton of shade and focused on the theory and the places that make sense for this. Read 2309. Shannon throughout isn't having an independent drive or views but focuses on public opinion, what "everyone" thinks is a good idea and I believe trying to bring our focus to specific areas where it shouldn't be.

Titus's theory mostly hinges on shannon scum anyways but I think titus being roleblocked and having been a pre-planned target is more likely here.

[Sesq]

@Sesq do you consider Impoetic a compromise lynch, or do you 100% oppose it?

I think Impo's town who is new and approaching things overly-skeptical. Also, most of this wagon has derived from her being away for the first bit of this day which seems illegitimate. I'd need more convincing.

I'd like Drone to actually speak up. Still.

[Drone]

@Sesq do you consider Impoetic a compromise lynch, or do you 100% oppose it?

I think Impo's town who is new and approaching things overly-skeptical. Also, most of this wagon has derived from her being away for the first bit of this day which seems illegitimate. I'd need more convincing.

I'd like Drone to actually speak up. Still.

What are you trying to achieve with this post?

[JaeReed]

VC 3.06

Impoetic (4)

: Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Drone, TTTT

-- L-1!

shannon (1)

: Raskolnikov

Drone (1)

: Sesq

NOT VOTING (3)

: Impoetic, gerryoat, shannon

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-03 16:47:00)

[Raskolnikov]

Follow along shannon here

D2 - We should wagon titus for information. Titus is scummy for acting the same way I saw her play before and also all this claim and theory stuff but nvm she's okay (it's not going anywhere, fuck it).
D3 - It's complicated and there's a bunch of things you could interpret from this, anything is possible, but it's seems more likely titus is scum here and/or fakeclaiming. Now I personally have no idea, I'm not sure what to make of all this, I'm just putting it out there that we should look at this very closely. Titus is wrong or lying here.

The read doesn't work start to finish, put yourself in the point of view... first you thinks she's scummy for being obtuse but also just wants a wagon for funsies. Then after she literally was l-1 and had to claim, mmm I'm not sure about these role mechanics let's get all the details here, entirely new theory and speculation approach which kind of throws out what shannon said before, and vague theoretical analysis as opposed to play judgement, finally ending on a gut townread.
Now d3 that's gone and she goes heavily into why titus is lying and more likely scum than not although not going as far as to act on it.

As an overall read there's no consistent basis as to why shannon scumreads titus or talks about her in general, it shifts from one thing to another based on the situation but the result is generally just casting shade. There's not really momentum there or deeper reasoning behind it, even though the information itself and theories are very detailed and complex there isn't one solid continuous thread in it. Even earlier too when she discarded her fluffyrabbit strongest d1 townread when titus subbed in and never spoke of it, which is why that sequence was interesting to me too. There's no common line of thought from start to finish, things earlier just sort of disappear and fade away, never mentioned again, to be replaced by other new things but overall her views stay roughly the same.

I think shannon wasn't originally intending to continue to scumread titus into today (ended yesterday with a gut townread onto her), but on deciding not to kill her she revived her read to throw some shade onto her and possibly get that lynch. It makes sense as to why the read is so disjointed and doesn't follow from start to finish, from the original push to that townread to today.

Compare ssbm_kyouko. Kyouko seemed to LEGITIMATELY want to push titus for information based on his titus-impoetic theory, and when I asked more he gave reasoning regarding titus's d1 play around rb and her behaviour in general. Solid reasoning, also given kyouko isn't familiar with titus stylistically (unlike shannon) that's a legitimate view for kyouko. He followed up on that theory/associations later too without being prompted which shows he is genuinely thinking about it. Switch to LUV based on luv's claim, then today he does start on titus and does talk about the role, but he also goes back and references d1 and his train of thought before. It's consistent, it follows, and though he speculates mechanics and theorycrafts it isn't 100% of what he does. There's backbone and a basis behind it if you look at it.

Compare to TTTT. TTTT didn't say anything about scumreading titus until today and did vote her, but TTTT did not try to make titus look bad in any way. You could argue "this doesn't look right" might be casting shade but it's a stretch there. After talking with titus a bit and hearing the target of impoetic he seems okay with it, but at no point do I really see him try to "make her look bad" or influence public opinion against her despite his vote there. He's a little reserved and I don't know much about him, but I don't see his stance as malicious.

Drone as I mentioned voted titus for all of 3 hours before moving to shannon and the titus vote was on logic unrelated to her claim or being alive so it doesn't really fit the motivation either. I don't townread drone but even then that stance wouldn't make sense as the sole scum to take advantage, it's not nearly enough. Drone I've thought about as a shannon partner given his scumread turned into a townread when the wagon on her took off but shannon could just as easily be with any of the many lurker slots too and I scumread her a lot more.

[shannon]

@Sesq do you consider Impoetic a compromise lynch, or do you 100% oppose it?

And with 11 days left, there's no way anyone should be on a compromise lynch, especially as a hammerer.

Totally agree.

This is a liability lynch (oops) rather than a scum lynch, meaning mafia gets a free day even though I'm still considering subbing out (have been posting without being caught up so I'm pretty sure I'm further behind than you think, Shannon -- though the potential subber-inner would be that far behind too, they'd most likely be better than me) so the fact that I *am* subbing out should be cause for unvote unless you actually SR me, which I don't remember people voicing while I was actually active (except that brief wagon at d1 which dissipated just as briefly).

I'm beginning to think that with daytalk on shannon could have placed a quick vote on you to make your wagon look too easy/fast so that it would break up. Other people could reason it was my vote that did that but I know that if any vote was placed intentionally to make the wagon dissipate it was shannon's. That's when you followed up saying something like "wait don't speedlynch me guys I just saw like 3 votes" (quoting from memory) and then the wagon broke up soon after

@Impoetic: It's not good asking me to unvote you, since I'm not voting you. I said that they should take my vote as though it was on you, but someone else has voted since - my intention was to L-1 you to get you participating, not to hammer you.

The case atm from titus is impoetic is scum because titus got no result on her and shannon started attacking titus (before titus revealed). Otherwise titus herself said she'd consider roleblock as the explanation about as likely if not more.

But it is possible titus was roleblocked and shannon took it as opportunity without the explicit target being relevant.

Consider the following:

why is titus alive?

If you leave a claimed PR alive you're intending to mislynch them or at least have it as an option. And you follow up on this either directly attacking them or otherwise casting shade.
The pool of people that makes is Shannon, TTTT, ssbm_kyouko and partially drone.

Of all of these shannon's stance on titus hasn't really made sense (d2 wagon) whereas I think I can follow the progression of kyouko and sort of TTTT. Drone did vote titus but his logic was entirely on other things; if you're going to leave someone alive to take issue with you don't attack them for entirely different reasons or even back off in under 3 hours (2168), so I don't think he really qualifies.
Shannon didn't vote titus (shannon's style in general seems to be coming in at the end with the "compromise" vote rather than leading anything though) but cast a ton of shade and focused on the theory and the places that make sense for this. Read 2309. Shannon throughout isn't having an independent drive or views but focuses on public opinion, what "everyone" thinks is a good idea and I believe trying to bring our focus to specific areas where it shouldn't be.

Titus's theory mostly hinges on shannon scum anyways but I think titus being roleblocked and having been a pre-planned target is more likely here.

@Rask: I have no idea why Titus is alive. As scum, there's no way I'd leave a claimed PR alive, I wouldn't be that confident in my ability to mislynch them (especially Titus). We also have to ask why Transcend was killed N1 for having claimed a PR with way less powers than what he actually had, but Titus has been left to live with scum fully knowing what powers she has. To me, it makes sense that Titus is scum.

My general style isn't coming in with a compromise lynch, at all. The reason I've not voted Titus is because I'm still trying to weigh it up in my head. If she's being truthful, I don't want to lose what seems to be our last PR shot. And as SSBM has said, there's a way in which Titus' result and interpretation makes sense, and I'm still trying to get more information.

But Titus being alive, plus the 'no result' result, looks really bad to me. Like I said before, it looks like what scum would do to try to get away with the claim. Similarly, if she doesn't trust me, I don't get why she didn't investigate me last night. I also don't get why a 'no result' on Impoetic is being treated as a guilty, and how she's leaping to make the connection to me. It makes no sense unless she starts from the false premise that I'm scum, but if she thought that, why not check me for a gun? Why not jailkeep me and see if there's still a death?

If I'm focused on public opinion, it's because I've seen it work as a town strategy. I've been in a game that was won because, although some of the Town had scum reads on each other, we collectively agreed to lynch the *one person* everyone agreed on, and that ended up being the right person a few days running. I think that's what's going to be needed here. So yes, I'm trying to feel out whether people are on Impoetic as a compromise, whether it's just a LYLO strategy, etc. I'm not fence sitting, I'm trying not to rush judgment.

The other thing I've been trying to do is establish a strategy that will allow us to get the maximum information from each night and claim. If we'd not lynched LUV yesterday, he could have followed Titus and we'd have had more info about what really went on. If we'd known that Titus had targeted Impoetic last night, for real, then that would have changed today's whole focus.

Actually now what I think is a good idea is to look at who was on the LUV lynch and why.

[Raskolnikov]

Shannon continued, read progression specifically

D2 -> D3 details

The d2 original wagon she said was partially for

information

(stuff like WAGON analysis etc) and partially for her behaviour. The former is we know as a FACT is not true given she never mentioned it again or went into detail as to what she got from it; when I asked she gave 2020 but she said nothing about any one of those things she describes there EVER, and she couldn't answer specifically what she learned. She said "this was my thought process here" when it straight up wasn't by any observation, and you can look at her ISO and see this. The latter falls apart when I look at it too if you actually read the meta I linked, and even shannon agrees in 2107 it wasn't anything unusual for what she remembers. So she forgot that I guess when she took issue with it earlier? So that doesn't go anywhere either.
Everything here kind of falls apart when I give it the slightest scrutiny but no one cares to look beyond the surface.

Then after that initial part where titus claimed shannon didn't say much beyond getting a ton of info about the role mechanics, trying to direct titus's night actions, and suggesting she should be lynched if still alive next day. But not really scumreading her and then ending the day on a gut townread.

Move onto d3:

Prima facie I'd say that we should ask for a claim from whoever Titus' target was, and then discuss whether it's plausible and lynch the hell out of it if not. If the target flips town with no modifier that would suggest a no result, then Titus is a no-brainer lynch the next day.

I'm clearly out of the loop here, can anyone explain?

So this is the first post. Don't actually think this makes sense if shannon's scum with impoetic ascetic; in that case this would be bussing which she later hard-backtracked on?
This DOES make sense if titus was roleblocked and shannon is okay with lynch said target. This is before titus revealed target. Shannon could intentionally omit the roleblock possibility if a town is framed in this manner.

Titus then votes shannon for the omission and shannon kicks into gear here. She goes into possibilities, then goes into VCA and brings up me+drone team, then into 2258 taking issue with titus's logic around ascetic (issues shannon would still easily see if scum, if partner is RB rather than ascetic, although this post is actually okay). She works hard here when under threat and I think one of her first priorities was to figure out if the target is/isn't her.

THEN impoetic is revealed, shannon says regarding titus 2309 (I have no idea which way it goes) and is sort of whatever on impoetic. I don't have time to re-read impoetic (2300), treat my vote as if it's on her (2316). Her issues with the ascetic logic and titus? Eh whatever after hearing it's impoetic. I would NOT go along with a lynch lead by my SCUMREAD especially when I just spent all that time going over why the logic is completely flawed and dodgy fmpov. What the fuck?

Impoetic feels like LUV where no-one gives a fuck and if he's town nothing comes of it and probably no one ever talks about it again (except that had some justification because his role claim retraction).

[Raskolnikov]

@Shannon

If you think titus is scum why do seem so okay/meh with lynching impoetic with her just now??

[Impoetic]

@Titus: If I recall correctly I thought you were scummier than some others day 1 primarily due to townreading RB and your claim being a powerful PR in a mini normal (which shouldn't have too many, I think? not sure) when you were about to get lynched, but felt/feel hesitant actually stating that

You thought Titus was scummy during day1 for TRing RB?
That implies your day1 thoughts leaned to rb being scum
just read your day1 iso and nope
you literally took no stance on either Titus or rb day1
when rb was at L-1 you wrote 1324
That's it.

that was d2

No it wasn't.
unless by "that" you mean something other than what we are talking about...

forgot to respond to this earlier

my scumlean on titus was d2.

[Impoetic]

I don't get how no report = a guilty

why would scum leave you alive if

[Impoetic]

I don't get how no report = a guilty

why would scum leave you alive if only one of them were protected from being checked? Like, with roleblocker it makes sense, but with ascetic, there would have to be one scum that could be guiltied, so how does no report = a guilty on me? it just means scum roleblocked you...

[Titus]

Shannon continued, read progression specifically

D2 -> D3 details

The d2 original wagon she said was partially for

information

(stuff like WAGON analysis etc) and partially for her behaviour. The former is we know as a FACT is not true given she never mentioned it again or went into detail as to what she got from it; when I asked she gave 2020 but she said nothing about any one of those things she describes there EVER, and she couldn't answer specifically what she learned. She said "this was my thought process here" when it straight up wasn't by any observation, and you can look at her ISO and see this. The latter falls apart when I look at it too if you actually read the meta I linked, and even shannon agrees in 2107 it wasn't anything unusual for what she remembers. So she forgot that I guess when she took issue with it earlier? So that doesn't go anywhere either.
Everything here kind of falls apart when I give it the slightest scrutiny but no one cares to look beyond the surface.

Then after that initial part where titus claimed shannon didn't say much beyond getting a ton of info about the role mechanics, trying to direct titus's night actions, and suggesting she should be lynched if still alive next day. But not really scumreading her and then ending the day on a gut townread.

Move onto d3:

Prima facie I'd say that we should ask for a claim from whoever Titus' target was, and then discuss whether it's plausible and lynch the hell out of it if not. If the target flips town with no modifier that would suggest a no result, then Titus is a no-brainer lynch the next day.

I'm clearly out of the loop here, can anyone explain?

So this is the first post. Don't actually think this makes sense if shannon's scum with impoetic ascetic; in that case this would be bussing which she later hard-backtracked on?
This DOES make sense if titus was roleblocked and shannon is okay with lynch said target. This is before titus revealed target. Shannon could intentionally omit the roleblock possibility if a town is framed in this manner.

Titus then votes shannon for the omission and shannon kicks into gear here. She goes into possibilities, then goes into VCA and brings up me+drone team, then into 2258 taking issue with titus's logic around ascetic (issues shannon would still easily see if scum, if partner is RB rather than ascetic, although this post is actually okay). She works hard here when under threat and I think one of her first priorities was to figure out if the target is/isn't her.

THEN impoetic is revealed, shannon says regarding titus 2309 (I have no idea which way it goes) and is sort of whatever on impoetic. I don't have time to re-read impoetic (2300), treat my vote as if it's on her (2316). Her issues with the ascetic logic and titus? Eh whatever after hearing it's impoetic. I would NOT go along with a lynch lead by my SCUMREAD especially when I just spent all that time going over why the logic is completely flawed and dodgy fmpov. What the fuck?

Impoetic feels like LUV where no-one gives a fuck and if he's town nothing comes of it and probably no one ever talks about it again (except that had some justification because his role claim retraction).

This type of analysis is impossible if you immediately reveal a result. I concur with Rask's thinking but Shannon may have wanted to see if the target was her partner. Only in rare instances, will I auto claim a result.

[Raskolnikov]

Her latest turn especially though WTF

1. scumread someone
2. their logic is total bullshit
3. eh why not, consider my vote there too. haven't re-read them btw so this is based on that logic I just pointed out how ridiculous it was

[Raskolnikov]

@Impo you have to catch-up and give reads though, even just skimming.

I think you're probably town but you have to put some effort in.

[Sesq]

@Sesq do you consider Impoetic a compromise lynch, or do you 100% oppose it?

I think Impo's town who is new and approaching things overly-skeptical. Also, most of this wagon has derived from her being away for the first bit of this day which seems illegitimate. I'd need more convincing.

I'd like Drone to actually speak up. Still.

What are you trying to achieve with this post?

Respond to a question asked of me. Where's that case you had against me? I'm going to keep asking, and voting, until you respond.

[Raskolnikov]

@Sesq why did you unvote me d2 again?

I remember you were scumreading me so what changed?

[Titus]

Sesq, thoughts on Shannon and Impoetic?

[Sesq]

@Sesq why did you unvote me d2 again?

I remember you were scumreading me so what changed?

My major issue was it seeming like you tunneling on shannon, but that was me being bad at reading.

@Titus: with impo, it seems like the wagon today was made on her being away, which seems illegitimate. Would be very surprised if there was no scum on that wagon, seeing how it played out.

as for shannon, seems relatively towny. I don't know, kind of hard to read.

Drone, you know what I'm asking you.

[Titus]

I didn't ask for your thoughts on the Impoetic wagon. I asked for your thoughts on Impoetic.

Also, your read on Shannon isn't much of one either. Have you read Rask's recent posts? Why does Shannon "seem townie"?

[gerryoat]

based on the impoetic i know, she is prob scum. she's voting people more often as town. but it might just be because it's a diff site that she's acting different than i'm used to

[shannon]

@Shannon

If you think titus is scum why do seem so okay/meh with lynching impoetic with her just now??

There's a reason I didn't actually vote, let's put it that way. I wanted to see whether my expressed intention to vote would derail the wagon, given that lots of folks have a scum read on me.

I think the only way anyone will have a town read on me is when I actually flip town. And even then, there will be room for Scum Titus to wheedle her way out of her analysis of me.

On D2 people (self included) were trying to brainstorm ways that Titus and LUV could both either prove their claims via mutually agreed investigations. Titus said that any strategy that relied on her living would be rubbish. And yet, somehow, LUV got lynched and Titus is still alive and giving results...