Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)

[shannon]

Here I was all excited to be first posting today, and it turns out I'm dead! Oh well.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well, Shannon dying helps. Will color VCs once I get home, I'm at lunch at work atm

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also kinda annoyed that Titus didn't explain she could only inherit town roles because that was one of the reasons I thought her claim was fake, was that she might inherit strongman

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Feeling drone/Rask for scum rn. I suggest we try to find both scum today while we have 3 town alive, then we can vote

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: Context around when Drone L-1ed Titus in VC 2.08

Is this why you wanted me to not out our private talk?
The only possible claim Titus can make now is town Neighbour btw.
So no need to wait for their claim at all.

Titus is at L-1 do not hammer yet.

could see one of shannon or drone being last maf with lil uzi. not sure which

Aha.

agree gerry but titus first to sort the shit because I'm leaning shannon town LUV scum atm but not sure

drone saying to hammer without that claim is fucked though, but let's not let it distract

we're on course

agree gerry but titus first to sort the shit because I'm leaning shannon town LUV scum atm but not sure

drone saying to hammer without that claim is fucked though, but let's not let it distract

we're on course

What is so fucked about it?
I told you, there's only one possible claim Titus can make.
Anything else would just clarify she's scum.

that's for her to say is what is fucked

I am the universal backup. The mod did tell me the bulletproof was used. My role isn't inconsistent with a one shot tracker, just makes it highly improbable. I wanted to punt on setup spec until I could find a way to do it without outing my role. That's also why I had to sort Gerry and his knowledge.

Scum managed to rolefish me though. They wouldn't pile on though if Drone wasn't scum though.

So Drone/Uzi/one more.

I am the universal backup. The mod did tell me the bulletproof was used. My role isn't inconsistent with a one shot tracker, just makes it highly improbable. I wanted to punt on setup spec until I could find a way to do it without outing my role. That's also why I had to sort Gerry and his knowledge.

Scum managed to rolefish me though. They wouldn't pile on though if Drone wasn't scum though.

So Drone/Uzi/one more.

Are you countering Drone's Neighbor claim here?
it isn't real clear.
And why aren't you voting LUV if it's highly improbable your roles are compatible?
and what does this have to do with sorting Gerry?

No. I am Drone's Neighbor but intended to play that close to the vest.

Again, you misinterpret (I hope). Our roles are inconsistent, but not unlikely. I never got attacked until I fingered Drone, so Drone is more likely scum.

Gerry claimed the bulletproof was used. I wanted to see whether he believed a strongman existed due to play or knew a strongman was in play because he was scum.

DRONE GET THE FUCK BACK ON THE FUCKING RB LYNCH THIS FUCKING INSTANT DO YOU FUCKING UNDERSTAND ME

No good reason.
We have him claimed, I rather believe his claim than yours for the sake of the matter.

this doesn't make sense at all - the rb BP claim STINKSLIKESHIT and while transcend's timing and way he goes about all that is awful, it was still obvi-town and didn't seem fake at all

ugh

I don't fucking know

titus

ever see yourself voting LUV?

You ever see yourself commenting substantively on Drone?

booomcha-deflection!!!

he's definitely scum if you're not

if you're not scum then drone is and LUV is not and well things will sort...

I mean, I was the last to speak in our neighbourhood, expressing surprise at rb's flip. You could engage me there at night, yet you chose not to.
What you did today is essentially casting shade on me and abusing my trust in you (I believed the rates for

1 scum in 2 neighbours

is very very low) to try and lynch me.

I really don't understand your line of thinking if you're town.

Bolded reads as a slip to me after seeing Titus flip. Anyone else read it that way or am I confbiasing extra hard here?

[Drone]

VOTE: Shadonra

[Drone]

Hey.
My bad.
VOTE: Kyouko

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VC 1.34 (FINAL)

rb

(7)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7

, ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq,

gerryoat

, ironstove,

TTTT

-- LYNCH!

gerryoat

(1)

: Drone

Lil Uzi Vert

(1)

:

Titus

Transcend

(1)

:

shannon

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Unless rb was getting double bussed, Sesq and Rask should be able to eliminate Kyouko+Rask and Kyouko+Sesq, respectively

Also Drone do you have any kind of case or partner suspects? There are still 2 scum left

[Drone]

Lil Uzi Vert

(5)

:

TTTT, gerryoat

, ssbm_Kyouko,

drealmerz7,

Titus

-- L-1!

Hey guys look me in the eyes and tell me that Titus and I are both town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Lil Uzi Vert

(5)

:

TTTT, gerryoat

, ssbm_Kyouko,

drealmerz7,

Titus

-- L-1!

Hey guys look me in the eyes and tell me that Titus and I are both town

VC 2.08

Titus

(5)

: ssbm_Kyouko,

drealmerz7, Lil Uzi Vert

,

shannon

, Drone

-- L-1!

Lil Uzi Vert

(2)

:

gerryoat, TTTT

NOT VOTING (4)

: Impoetic,

Titus

, ironstove, Sesq

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

TTTT is V/LA until the 12th.

Also I noticed yesterday you latched onto Titus after I posted that, you clearly intended to use it to try to mislynch me today. Prior to that you seemed disinterested in voting Titus

[Drone]

I was interested in voting Titus last day because, as I outed she didn't target anyone.
There's no town motive in doing that.
She then asked me to fake a target.

[Drone]

And yes, out of both of you, she sounded like it.
Adding that to the push from like day 2.
I clearly agreed with the logic of behind the Uzi wagon.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Lil Uzi Vert

(5)

:

TTTT, gerryoat

, ssbm_Kyouko,

drealmerz7,

Titus

-- L-1!

Hey guys look me in the eyes and tell me that Titus and I are both town

Lil Uzi Vert

(5)

:

TTTT, gerryoat

, ssbm_Kyouko,

drealmerz7,

Titus

-- L-1!

Hey guys look me in the eyes and tell me that Titus and I are both town

This VCA.
Is your first good VCA this game.

UNVOTE: Shadonra

We can lynch you both.
There's actually no way Uzi was a full town wagon.

Let us put are votes in between the two of you. Only.

I'll tell you what that "night action" means. It means if we don't lynch Titus today scum!Titus will not kill tonight and tomorrow will be MyLo, and then Titus will claim the person she "jailed" is scum

I'm aware of this.
I'm asking something different.

Fuck it.
VOTE: Titus

Don't hammer yet, please

Why?
Should be clear it either Titus or Kyouko.

Drone

should

stay on Titus today regardless of his own alignment if the neighborhood is real

Town!Drone knows the final D2 wagon was 4 town + Titus and I on LUV
-Logical course of action with 2 lynches left is to lynch Titus and I in succession - one of us is bound to be scum
scum!Drone knows the final D2 wagon was 5 town and himself on LUV
-Logical course of action is to lynch townneighbor!Titus and I in succession because town neighbor flip makes him look better and me look worse, and we'll be the last 2 unconfirmed votes on LUV

This means if Drone unvotes Titus/Myself today they're both scum, because they're both scum if the neighborhood is *fake*. Since Drone is suggesting we lynch within Titus and myself today it means that Titus and Drone are not a team.

Titus, what do you think of this theory?

[shadonra]

I was interested in voting Titus last day because, as I outed she didn't target anyone.
There's no town motive in doing that.
She then asked me to fake a target.

There is if you believe, as Titus appears to have, that I was scum ascetic.

[shadonra]

Not sure who I want between Drone/Kyouko. Leaning Drone. Not sure either is scum actually

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Unless RB was double bussed the team isn't sesq/Rask though. That's from my town pov. This is true from sesq and Rask's town PoVs as well. This means if one of us is town the other 2 can't be scum together, and if one of us is scum the other 2 still can't be scum together. This means ssbm/Rask, ssbm/sesq, and Sesq/Rask are all impossible teams UNLESS you assume RB got double bussed. Seems unlikely to me. We can all still be scum with other players but I can't be scum with drone and that's obvious imo. That leaves my only possible partner to be shad, and I can probably find votes that suggest that's unlikely (because I'm town so I don't have a partner)

[Drone]

Let's be clear here, we kinda lost this.
Titus was right.
Want to vote me? Go for it.
I'm staying Kyouko, or switching Shadonra.
The only two possible lynches for me.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Too soon to vote you, your partner is still up for discussion before that

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So do you think it's shad/Kyouko?

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: kyouko

[Sesq]

VOTE: Kyuoko

FOR CZECHOSLOVAKIA

[Raskolnikov]

3. Lil Uzi Vert, the

Town 2-Shot Follower

was lynched Day 2
5. gerryoat, the

Town Doctor

was lynched Day 3
7. Titus, the

Town 1-Shot Universal Backup Neighbour

was lynched Day 4

lel

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Eww

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This is why you don't vote in LyLo

[Raskolnikov]

I hope we all learned a valuable lesson about VCA here.

VC 1.34 (FINAL)

rb

(7)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7

,

ssbm_Kyouko

,

Sesq

,

gerryoat

,

ironstove

,

TTTT

-- LYNCH!

gerryoat

(1)

:

Drone

Lil Uzi Vert

(1)

:

Titus

Transcend

(1)

:

shannon

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

:

Impoetic

,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

VC 2.20 (FINAL)

Lil Uzi Vert (6)

:

TTTT, gerryoat, drealmerz7, Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Drone

-- LYNCH!

shannon (1)

:

Raskolnikov

Drone (1)

:

shannon

Titus (1)

:

Lil Uzi Vert

NOT VOTING (2)

:

Impoetic

,

Sesq

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

Essentially it's garbage. The whole thing is supposed to be statistical, show you "trends", "x is slightly or moderately more likely than y", not to give any hard and fast rules or conclusions, definitely not as a replacement for actual scumhunting. It can be useful to "suggest" things and often than not can point you in the right direction to get started, but shouldn't be more than a rough guide.

The other problem is VCA was mentioned as a substantial tell all the way back in d1, before the first wagon even got through, before 2nd scum got on. Even if it didn't influence that composition (I'm not sure if he cared about VCA vs just bussing for cred), you have to assume by the end of d2 it would've impacted future VCs, with just how often it was getting brought up. To think you could spam VCA VCA out loud in thread and assume scum would either not notice, or see it but just act exactly as usual and not subvert the VCA in any way, is very naive.

I encourage anyone who plays in future as scum VS anyone bringing up VCA to deliberately do stuff to mess their analysis up so hopefully it just dies altogether from common usage. Even hardcore VCAers probably agree it has to be rare and unexpected to be useful. I could see a decent usage case being, for example, replacing into a game in lylo where it was never mentioned and THEN doing it (but even then watch out).