Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[Beefster]

@Transcend: just NK money.

[RadiantCowbells]

No. Bad.

[Beefster]

More votes on moz.

[Klick]

Implied earlier, but I'm VT.

Phone ISO re-evaluation of mozamis reveals that his thought process is very consistent. I want to go with RC's push but I'm really not seeing mozamis flipping scum right now.

I implore people to join me on texcat. It's not lurking that bothers me here at all; it's the fact that his vote has been on Flubber literally all game and the initial push was terrible in the first place. I think it's a better direction to go in than anything else that's being pushed.

I'm also willing to join a Thor flash wagon if that winds up happening.

[RadiantCowbells]

Please trust me.

[RadiantCowbells]

This is the kind of read MS is systemically bad at. I wouldn't expect anyone to scumread mozamis.

[Klick]

I'll join if no other lynch can happen, or if it's him vs Beefster or something. I really don't think moz is scum. But if he does get lynched and flip scum you'll get massive kudos from me.

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't have the energy to pull an org 13 or whatever but moz is scum

[RadiantCowbells]

I say that but org 13 was only so hard because I was low energy the entire game but

[HeWhoSwims]

Moz. I've explained my thought on my votes. I've gone days in other games without voting. And I realise I'm lacking on scumleans but so many possible scum members also have stuff working in favour of them. I also think I've shown reads at least 3 times now and I feel I've explained them but feel free to inquire.

We can call people "lynchbait" but it doesn't change their role PM no? If they're acting scummy in a way then they could be scum regardless of whether it's their normal playstyle or not. Surely tex (and EP? idk) lurk in their town games but lurking as scum certainly wouldn't hurt any scum player known to lurk.

If we lynch moz and he flips town I'm turbo vigging coa

Jsyk my dude sir.

Why exactly? Didn't quite see the association there. COA has been tr on moz right and the other way around? I wouldn't necessarily see it as a T-S interaction?

COA is super town

Why the "super town"? I'm null / very slight townlean here. What did you think of her silence earlier? You've not mentioned her as much aside from a few early game protown arguments (which hold up by the way).

I don't think a mafia game has had me laughing as hard as at 911 . I... see the arguments here but I think early game Money was really open and elaborate and all, allowing himself to be read by everyone and their mother ya know. I'd lean towards that being townish.

Claim: VT

If we assume there's scum between Beef/Moz/COA/Money my order of suspicion would be COA>Moz/Beef>Money at this point but that order's a tad wobbly. Beef has an okay case on Moz I guess. And RC having this real strong moz scumread ticks me off because RC is essentially conftown (otherwise we're seeing a CC this gameday), and an experienced player so maybe he's seeing stuff me or others aren't seeing - but RC why don't you do a solid defense?

[RadiantCowbells]

THERE'S NOTHING TO DEFEND MYSELF AGAINST.

THERE ARE NO SCUMREADS OF ANY VALUE ON MY SLOT.

[HeWhoSwims]

Once again for clearness

Claim VT

UNVOTE: Flubbernugget

I know I've stuck to 1 post/day. I've been busy for the past week and I prefer writing longer posts over 1 liner posts anyway.

pedit RC what does this mean? Surely you can have valid/good scumreads...?

[RadiantCowbells]

...

there are no scumreads of any value targeting my slot

my scumreads are of great value tyvm. anyone who thinks I'm scum is bad or scum.

that said I don't think anyone besides mozamis actually thinks that I'm scum, so anyone who thinks I'm scum is scum.

[RadiantCowbells]

why do you think my priority should be defending myself when I am literally confirmed town?

[RadiantCowbells]

like ignoring the fact that I'm confirmed town nothing mozamis has said in my direction is worth even my time to read, let alone a refutation

[HeWhoSwims]

You misunderstood me I think... Maybe defend is the wrong word but I meant explain your moz scumread more because it's so strong. I mean - any discussion helps the game I'd think? And odds are you are either tonight's NK or N2's so why not get out your full thoughts anyway.

pedit: oh. Yea it doesn't make sense to scumread you at this point. If you're scum somehow we're getting a CC and there is none so, eh. A quick CTRL+F on moz' ISO tells me he's at some points such as 869 847 doubting your reads moreso than your alignment. I personally don't see any wrong with that... conftown =/= correct by default.

[RadiantCowbells]

yeah but being rc = correct by default

[HeWhoSwims]

I see. Thanks for the explanation.

(But... no chance you're doing some case thing on moz?)

[RadiantCowbells]

I'll think about mustering the mental energy to make a case that won't make sense to anyone because yall are so hyper focused on read progression which is easy to fake and you completely ignore the obvious

[RadiantCowbells]

like analyzing poeple's reads is in general the worst way to play mafia

[Moneybags]

Ok we basically have 72 hours left. I know what I'm about to go off and do isn't ideal cause right now it looks like it's between Beef and Moz. However as of right now I'm not really fan of either of those as lynches so I'm going to bring up another case. I'd like to state for the record that I am not in favor of a No Lynch. I don't particularly think Moz or Beef is scum

at this moment in time

, but RC and Flubber seem to think each is, respectively. If it comes down to it I may fold and vote with one of them.
If this happens and whoever we lynch flips town, I expect to be pretty high on the vig list. In preparation of my flip I'm making this post so hopefully I'll be able to have done at least one useful thing all game.

In order of the player list, excluding the 3 PRs and myself:

Spoiler: mozamis

I read Moz as

Leaning Town

. This really shouldn't come as a surprise, I've been saying it all game. He's been incredibly consistent in his behavior and voting patterns. It looks to me like he's just a raw town player. He avoided the flubber wagon cause he (correctly) read him as town. All game he's been voting outside of wagons and trying to do stuff independently. The only reason I have him as LT and not full Town is because this whole game I've been reading far to into everything. My main argument for moz is that surely no scum player would

want

to come off the way he's coming off. It's attracted the attention of a few people and he has a wagon building currently. But that could be me entirely over complicating it. Maybe he looks scummy sometimes cause he's just slipping up, and it's as simple as that.

Spoiler: Thor665

I read Thor as

Leaning Scum

. So first yes, this is a 180 from my last read of Thor. Originally, with minimal context of who Thor is I had him as Null. I think the idea is that he plays like this every game so you can't read him if he doesn't want you to. However in this game it

really

feels like he doesn't want you to. If you play aggressively that's fine, however I have a feeling he's aiming to create more chaos than instigate and apply pressure. If you read his exchange with me I still have no idea what he was trying to get at other than dig for some reason to accuse me. You could equally say he was trying to get me to crack and have a scum-like reaction. He was after flubber for most of the game. He drilled PP (now Transcend) hard early game due to a timing tell which was garbage. Some of his stuff makes sense and is fine. Some of it just doesn't. He's more Null than anything but I have him as Leaning Scum. Mainly because of him failing to do anything of benefit to the town due to being preoccupied with tunneling the IC all day.

Spoiler: HeWhoSwims

I read HWS as

Leaning Town

. Early game he stimulated conversation and made some posts of fair contribution. However once things got crazy they seemed to slide into the background (which could be nothing at all but I'm just pointing it out). I do like how they give more town reads than scum reads. Usually scum would try and be more accusing? He originally read beef as scum in post 237, but by post 354 he had changed beef to a TL. This was before the beef wagon started, which he was never on. He did join the flubber wagon in post 823 and mentions it's because that's where everyone else was going.

I'd like to see what beef flips before assigning HWS a more definite read.

Spoiler: Klick

I think that Klick is

Town

. His posting all game has been very genuine. He had some odd exchanges early on but I think that was just his personality/playstile. He asks questions and has clearly been stating his reads. As a bonus point he's had either a null or town read on Flubber all game. I grilled him a bit ago and his response in 383 is very solid. Has had a longstanding scumread of Tex. I see him contributing regularly. He puts effort in his posts. He's town to me.

Spoiler: texcat

Ok so here we go. I think that Tex is

Scum

. All game I've been writing her off as a lurking player that scum will go for lynchbait. But again I've been overthinking everything. And if someone lurks all the time, well, a broken clock is right at least twice a day right? Eventually it'll work out in your favor, and you can just claim to always do this. Which she does, in post 247.

Post 182, where she insubstantially claims flub is OMGUS voting her, has always bothered me. After flubber replied I did agree, but even then I said that this post was just such a long shot. If you randomly vote someone and they vote you back, for that very reason (as well as from lurking), you can't just say it's OMGUS and call it a day. You're just using it to push a lynch on the person you're randomly voting.

Then what happens after that? I start pushing flub. Thor pushes flub. This is part of the reason I have Thor as leaning scum. Did he try and hammer home the push started by Tex so it's spread between them, and suspicion is alleviated? That's basically a conspiracy theory so I have no idea, but it's something to chew on. Especially if one of them flips red.
I'd also like to note Thor

has never once addressed Texcat this game.

And this is after siding with Tex v Flubber.

Anyways, back to Tex. After being accusing of lurking we see a few low effort posts. She asks some questions. Finally gives reads (for the first time all game) in post 496. Says Thor is town, which is funny cause a lot of other people say he's null. Still riding on scum!Flubber.

And so here's what I really find interesting. It's a little bit of a stretch but I think in context to the above it could be something of substance.

Well, carp. That's a revolting development.
UNVOTE:

I would have cc'd long before now, if I were not VT.

Cc'd who exactly? Why would it have at all made sense to out as the 3rd pr, if that's what you meant?

We almost certainly had an IC in the game. So if I had a PR, for example if I were a jailkeeper, I would have know that either Transcend or RC was lying about their role, and I would have claimed. I guess that's not exactly a cc.

The first posts of hers triggered me cause it feels really weird to me.

What do you mean you would have cc'd?

You say that like ccing was always an option for you.

But because you haven't, you're

obviously

just a VT. Why would that have ever made sense to out, if you were a PR?
The excuse you come up with doesn't cut it for me either. It feels like you made the original comment offhand and realized that as town you would not have had any reason at all to CC.

Why would you, theoretically, assume that we'd have an IC when you are the Jailkeeper? Why would that be a reason to out?

It wouldn't be. It'd be a reason to massclaim sure, but not for you to "cc". Even in your reply you make it sound like you know, or have always known the PRs for this game.

I feel like both these posts are just straight up scum slips. In isolation they might not hold any weight but I think in context of tex's gameplay it's the best lead I have.

Spoiler: Beefster

I read Beef as

Leaning Town

. I've spend the last half of this day just reading way to into his posts and the contexts. I still feel weird about his gambit-y posts. They don't feel genuine to me I guess but I invite you all to ignore that and make of it what you will. I think his voting patterns are most telling. He's never fallen in line with the majority opinion and has gone after his personal pushes and gut reads. He doesn't seem to be concered about where his vote is falling. Which I think is really ironic because that's also why I think moz is town as I said, yet beef thinks moz is scum. Go figure. I don't think lynching beef will get us anywhere because I'm not convinced there was scum on his wagon at all. Someone asked "if the beef wagon was all town, then what on earth were the scum doing?" They were on flubber. At least, one of them was. Anyways to round it out, after taking beef at face value I think he's more likely to be town. He's seems to wear his agenda on his sleeve so I don't feel like he has a lot to hide.

Spoiler: CultOfAthena

I think I'm going to mark CoA as

Leaning Town

. The one thing that's keeping me from making them solid town is that early on they sided with Thor against PP (Transcend). This is an interaction that might lead to something, or it could be nothing at all. That aside, they make good posts and they feel like they care as a VT. Her being frustrated that no one is listening to her posts feels really genuine. To put it in her own words, "why would I feel the need to insert myself as a "key player" when most people seemed content to just write me off as town and ignore the rest of my posts?" She has been bringing original stuff to the table the few times she has been posting this game.

Spoiler: Maxous

I think that Max is

Town

. His posting feels genuine enough. He stuck to his guns and didn't vote either Beef or Flub. I think him calling for a mass claim and questioning the (currently) uncc'd PRs is healthy. He hasn't given me a reason to think he's scummy all game.

Spoiler: Errantparabola

I read EP as

Null.

They currently have 11 posts, half as much as the other 2 lurkers (CoA/Tex). In terms of contribution there isn't much there, but I think their posts are good (as few of them as there are). They seem like they genuinely want to help but just don't have the time. In terms of contribution, all they have really done is make a push on CoA, which they backed off of once they got an adequate response. Due to their real life situations it seems like they are just busy, so I'm not going to put down a definite read here.

VOTE: Texcat

I implore you all to consider this. I feel like it's a significantly better option than anyone else currently on the table.

If I flip before tex,

please

start with her tomorrow.

[RadiantCowbells]

Man given that I am the person here who made a scum career of doing what people think scum would not want to do I would think I should be the one to judge.

[HeWhoSwims]

That seems like a good town post, very open, but I'd like to point out that

He did join the flubber wagon in post 823 and mentions it's because that's where everyone else was going.

The latter half of this is not the case or at least not what I was trying to imply; I was putting out a vote because people wanted me to, and I think/thought that I'd been clear about the fact there were multiple things about flubber that were worrying to me at that time.

Other than this and the fact I TL on Thor, it seems like a townie and very open post to me. There could be arguments for it being Money trying to save his butt but it's still really open.

[RadiantCowbells]

No I really think moneybags is town.

Like I'm pretty close to having the game poed to 50/50 that I can be 100% sure of with the flubber townflip so

maybe I'll just support anyone who I think is below null today.

Mozamis has to fucking go before endgame though you gotta promise me that.

[mozamis]

why do you think my priority should be defending myself when I am literally confirmed town?

1) stop omgusing me. you were calling me town until i asked you lower the aggro.
2) you're not conf. town. Maybe you are town that just made a bad decision. But obviously the jury is still out.

3) i'll vote for anyone apart from Thor and Transcend. Ironically transcend is now one of my strongest TR, as it is very hard to see why he would cc tracker as scum, then fake claim etc It really put the spotlight on him when he was under no suspicion.
So Me, Thor and Transcen are town.
I'll vote anyone else if need be. Think its bit unfair to lynch EP, but whatever.