Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[Thor665]

Vote: HeWhoSwims

I actually find it interesting all the shade I'm getting - seriously none of you have ever seen a fake IC claim before? I've seen it less than fake day vig, but I've seen it more than once.

@Flubber - don't make up meta when you're town.

this is you casting doubt on Flubbers claim. Also, note you give no reason for voting HeWho.

So your second claim is I was trying to get people to not believe the claim *AFTER* the mod had confirmed it?

[Thor665]

And I did explain my vote when Moneybags asked me about it.

[mozamis]

and why EP?
looks to me like EP is todays lynch bait.

You've played enough to know that lynchbait is non-alignment telling, so why are you wasting my time with this point? How does it apply to EP and not tex? Yesterday was Flub and HWS also lynchbait?[/quote]

lol i'm sorry to "waste your time" by asking you to justify your scum read of EP.
Which you dont do, you just ask me another question!
maybe it does apply to tex, i dont know. obviously it just depends on who scum are setting for todays mislynch. My guess is that your going for EP. So why do you think he is scum?

problem you have which you cant avoid is that you are a decent ecpereienced player who spent almost the entire day tunnelling the same player. Where were your doubts, suspicions of other players?

[mozamis]

So your case is predicated on me having a bad plan you can't even describe?

Vote: Mozamis

lol you have not suspected me all game!
this is flailing lol
no, your plan was bad, you describe dit and i agreed with you.
my case on you is that you tunnelled one player nearly all of day 1 and didnt suspect anyone else, and didnt push Hewho AT ALL. Out of character for you, you are the sort of player who DOES push their reads, that was clear form your Flub push.
WHAT HAPPENED TO YUR EP VOTE WHICH YOU GAVE NO REASON FOR LOL

[mozamis]

And I did explain my vote when Moneybags asked me about it.

yes, your reason was you were "sheeping town who isn't arguing something that i think is unlikely".
then you have 5 posts until end of day when you never push Hewho. This seem sweird from someone who had pushed someone hard all game.

[mozamis]

thoor cast doubt on flub on 923 before mod confirme dit
anyway thor is scum can we lynch him befor ehe drowns the thread with his politico, scummy BS lol
you'll note how he is nto game solving in anway - niot poushing me, not pushing Ep. Just "legalistic" scum on the defensive "yeah but prove it moz, prove it, prove it" lol

[Thor665]

@Moz - you are correct, I have not suspected you all game.
But your case on me is really incredibly shallow and you should recognize it deserves attention since you're harping on me to explain my vote reasoning at the same time, this shows awareness that vote reasoning is a valid scumhunting tactic in your mind.

And your reasoning on me is a laugh.

My reason for scumreading EP is as already presented - lurk.
I'll add wagon analysis.

That makes it vastly stronger than your case on ,e.

923 did not cast doubt - it stated my personal value call. I never encouraged anyone else to revote or to hold their vote.

[Thor665]

And I did explain my vote when Moneybags asked me about it.

yes, your reason was you were "sheeping town who isn't arguing something that i think is unlikely".
then you have 5 posts until end of day when you never push Hewho. This seem sweird from someone who had pushed someone hard all game.

That ignores this post also.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 7#p9898727

Your case on me is also still apparently that I'm an utter idiot with no good plans.

[Maxous]

I think the best place to start looking is at the 4 remaining who did not vote for HWS. While it's certainly possible that scum bussed HWS, I think it's unlikely that both scum voted there.

I didn't like Beefster yesterday and I don't like the way he started today assuming that EP was scum and then looking for EP's partners. Then backing off.

VOTE: Beefster for now, but I'm looking forward to Max's long-promised case on EP, as well as EP's long-promised catch up.

are you gonna ignore practically half the playerlist??

[Maxous]

Oh, one more thing, I haven't read 50% of this game so caveats etc etc but I think RC is scum

surely this is a town slip?

i highly disagree and would go as far as to say i think it is an attempt to fish for town-cred.
He expected to die last night so he was certainly aware of transcend's vig claim.
Why not RC'S?

[Maxous]

FTR, Thor is not getting town-cred for the HWS lynch.
He did not "create the situation", while there wasn't a guarantee HWS would be lynched, it was entirely plausible and his scumbuddies would of surely known that

[Maxous]

whodio you track RC?

transcend

RC that was a terrible track, Transcend was practically confirmed town.

this is on the first page of Day 2

*regarding Errant scumreading RC*

[Maxous]

i think i'm really warming up to the possibility of Athena!scum.
particularly as herself and HWS barely talked about each-other at all yesterday

[RadiantCowbells]

ftr I'm just watching interactions for a bit then I have something of note to say.

[texcat]

I think the best place to start looking is at the 4 remaining who did not vote for HWS. While it's certainly possible that scum bussed HWS, I think it's unlikely that both scum voted there.

Do you think it's more likely that both scum voted him or both scum didn't?
Because it's super safe to expect one in each location, so...

Also, still hate Beef wagon.

I would normally say both off the wagon, but with only 4 unknowns off the wagon, it seems unlikely.

I think the best place to start looking is at the 4 remaining who did not vote for HWS. While it's certainly possible that scum bussed HWS, I think it's unlikely that both scum voted there.

I didn't like Beefster yesterday and I don't like the way he started today assuming that EP was scum and then looking for EP's partners. Then backing off.

VOTE: Beefster for now, but I'm looking forward to Max's long-promised case on EP, as well as EP's long-promised catch up.

are you gonna ignore practically half the playerlist??

This is a bad mischaracterization of what I said. I never said I was going to ignore anyone. I said I thought the best place to

start

looking was at you 4.

i think i'm really warming up to the possibility of Athena!scum.
particularly as herself and HWS barely talked about each-other at all yesterday

Is this so you don't have to present your much promised case on EP?

[Thor665]

I think the best place to start looking is at the 4 remaining who did not vote for HWS. While it's certainly possible that scum bussed HWS, I think it's unlikely that both scum voted there.

Do you think it's more likely that both scum voted him or both scum didn't?
Because it's super safe to expect one in each location, so...

Also, still hate Beef wagon.

I would normally say both off the wagon, but with only 4 unknowns off the wagon, it seems unlikely.

Obviously scum had a lot of alternate options - but what makes you think it slightly likely that zero scum bussed?

[texcat]

Obviously scum had a lot of alternate options - but what makes you think it slightly likely that zero scum bussed?

Shrug. Anything's possible.

[Maxous]

a)

Spoiler: Errant #178

Mozamis

: Townread the page 1 entrance. Also townread his string of posts at the top of page 3. That reads like gamesolving to me.

---

Thor

: Push on Maxous seems a bit weird. People are cagey with their reads, it happens all the time. Especially early game—like this push is a stage prop to bolster the impression of a strong entrance. It could just be the “aggressive early game” that he’s talking about? Either way I hope I’ll get a better sense of him pretty quickly, seems like a guy who puts cards on the table. Or at least appears to.

---

Moneybags:

36 and 46 are posts that make me go “yes, good, reasonable, smart. I want to trust this guy” but at the same time, he’s also very on the sidelines, voice of reason, kind of guy. The kind of guy that’s endgame scum. Definitely expect people to start townreading him. (Update: I was right. Bunch of townreads just because the dude seems well put together, that's definitely something to worry about.) Will wait and see where he falls, but 46 “I’m not looking to pin everyone down…” is a small thing to keep in mind for me.

---

texcat

: That line thing looks like a smart way to format posts. In fact, I’m doing it right now. Thanks texcat. I'll give it a test run, see if I like it.

---

PenguinPower

: I agree, the Thor opening case is weak. My first thought was echoing Moneybags-- “Penguin sheeps Thor on Maxous, perhaps he’s trying to direct Thor’s focus off of him?” But maybe not so much.

61 rings true for me. If Thor really does open like this all the time, then I guess there really isn’t much to do about it from his point of view other than move on.

---

Beef

: The Beef's reads on 91 make me wonder about what you think about Penguin's vote on Maxous. I would hesitate to pin down reads on either Penguin or Thor but they definitely do lean slightly in the direction of the beef, although I suspect that it is for different reasons.

---

Klick

: The entrance at 95 is godly. Bella is a solid push, I missed it during my read but can def get behind the reasoning. My thoughts on mozamis are exactly that.

---

Flubber

: I'm running out of steam at this point and reading through Flubber vs. Thor is definitely starting to blur together. I'll probably go back and pick through page 5 at some point. At this point in time my gut is telling me to town lean this dude.

In fact, skimming through the later pages I'm definitely not gonna be able to process all those chunky posts so I'm gonna take a break and come back to it in a couple hours.

Reads as of right now? I have pretty comfortable townreads on Klick and mozamis. No real scumreads as of yet but I def want to scrutinize Moneybags first priority, maybe Bella and Flubber too. Shrug. I'm more comfortable calling Penguin town than Thor. We'll see when I get caught up entirely.

writes a lot of words but not too much content to sink into. This one isn't too bad though

b)

Spoiler: Errant#252

8 hour drive!

Beefster:

142 is pretty standard scumposting in my book. Tosses out a "possible scumread," qualifies it as just nothing later on when pressed to explain now that he can appease with a townread. Obviously not always scum here but I'm saying I think it's a bad post.

I'm actually not opposed to an Athena wagon in theory, but why the vote?

Moneybags:

I feel like scum would be more focused on "how can I subtlety change my mind on this" rather than just an outright 180.

I'm not saying you're wrong statistically but I'm also going to say that scum is capable of being a lot (to the point where an observation like this is useless to me) more unpredictable in this regard than you think. Especially when they don't think about this kind of stuff.

Flubber:

Your sudden focus on texcat doesn't make sense to me. What about her catchup that you reference in 179 is weird? Is it just lack of content?

It's atypical to have this many town reads, yes.

It's bound to happen with this dense of a game, especially when D1 reads/lynches so often boil down to "who isn't doing a lot."

VOTE: Maxous
Definitely the most agreeable leading wagon to me so I'll just join in. Don't rly have a solid read because he's terse but I can see scum playing like him-- throwing out a lot of opinions on certain posts or players for ultimately surface level reasons without presenting any cohesive gameview. No heart in his hunting.

This was worse. There was plenty to talk about at the time and he talked about very little and kinda just sheeped onto my wagon

c)

Hm, I feel like my posts are getting ignored here. I also didn't get really get any responses that I'm satisfied with from my questions. Is it my posting style?

I feel like this question comes from scum a lot under pressure. Responds to a single one-off vote from Beefster with a flurry of posts, questions about why she's being ignored, classic "it's not me, it's my playstyle" line... idk, seems like a disproportionate reaction.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

A weak vote considering we were 13 pages into the game at this point with plently going on.
nitpicky and i feel disingenuous.

d)

I get a sense that he's consciously trying to be the biggest player in the game, I don't know how I feel about that.

You shouldn't get a sense of that.
I'm blatantly doing it.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Then why bring it up at all if it's meaningless to you?

Thor got this one covered

e)

Spoiler: Errant #499 & #501

You're saying that I *don't* overtly appear to be trying to control the conversation and exert my will on the gamestate?

Yeah-- never mind. My original thought was "Thor is pushing every single point loudly even though some of them seem really dumb" but in hindsight that doesn't really seem like an important thing

[PenguinPower] seemed content to treat the game as a debate rather than as a game of mafia, and his response to my pointing that out was an utter misrepresentation.

Could you do me a favor and point me to this?

I split up what I would normally make as one post into multiple to see if it would get people to read what I was saying more. You're interpreting all of the posts there as a reaction to Beefster, but that isn't the case.

That may definitely be true, but my point is that I think that your reaction in general is something I think is a plausibly common reaction from scum in your situation.

By the way, why were you "not opposed to my wagon" in 252, made before the post you quoted?

Before the post, you were one of several players who had posted, but had not stuck out or made an impression in anyway. It is common for me to express desire to wagon these people in the early game.

If I were scum, why would I feel the need to insert myself as a "key player" when most people seemed content to just write me off as town and ignore the rest of my posts?

Good point. I'll look back on it and think. I think I might just
UNVOTE:
now-- my mind's kind of changed as of this post. Will see what happens when I read more.

Where did I discredit Beefster? If by "discredit" you mean "point out how someone is wrong", then first of all those two things are very connotatively different and you'll have to explain why you chose the first phrase over the second, and second – yeah I would be "discrediting" him if that's what you mean.

My thought back then was that you were saying Beefster is superficially reading the post. Which implies that he's just skimming and finding reads to have. Which is, yeah, discrediting.

This post is already meaty so I'm going to continue in the next post

But the Flubbernugget vote is really, really bad. She gave no real indication she had any sort of read on Flubbernugget before the vote.

Note to self to go back and look on this later today. Moneybags is right that your scumreads are easy and wrong that it necessarily makes you scummy.

Actually, you know what?

VOTE: mozamis

COA can wait.

Worst trade deal in the history of trade deals.

Fantastic response. What I had been seeing from you had me worried but I was very much on the fence. I feel your reply was very solid and it's cleared me of any doubts.

I know that I've been consistently suspicious of Moneybags for reasons that are almost entirely gut and probably confbias and I've been annoying about them but this makes me feel very bad.

I doubt there is one scum in Transcend/RC, but that's just a gut thing, I guess we'll see.

Backs down from Athena and doesn't provide much else

[Thor665]

Obviously scum had a lot of alternate options - but what makes you think it slightly likely that zero scum bussed?

Shrug. Anything's possible.

Sure, anything's possible.
What made you consider that one though?

[Transcend]

oops da baby

Gl all.

[texcat]

Obviously scum had a lot of alternate options - but what makes you think it slightly likely that zero scum bussed?

Shrug. Anything's possible.

Sure, anything's possible.
What made you consider that one though?

??
I don't know what you're talking about.

[Beefster]

Meh. Not feeling into reading in detail right now, but I saw a mozamis vote and I want in on that action.

VOTE: mozamis

[Thor665]

Obviously scum had a lot of alternate options - but what makes you think it slightly likely that zero scum bussed?

Shrug. Anything's possible.

Sure, anything's possible.
What made you consider that one though?

??
I don't know what you're talking about.

You can always click in the quote links to backtrack a conversation.
I'm talking about why you would normally expect zero scum on that wagon.

[CultOfAthena]

Transcend makes much more sense as a kill than RC because Transcend's PR is much more powerful than RC's, and we now have an even number of players which is worse than odd.

Anyone in a scum slot would be able to see this. You don't appear to have seen it at all, further cementing my townread on you.

Scum only have reason to fear Transcend's PR if he's scumreading them – otherwise, more dead townies is a benefit to scum, especially when transcend makes a shot like moneybags. This feels like a preemptive defense of suspicion on yourself from Transcend dying before RC.

Also, I'm pretty sure we would still be at an even number of players today if scum killed RC over Transcend.

UNVOTE:

#1194 looks super town to me tbh. That is probably one of the most (surprisingly) genuine out-of-game defenses I have ever seen. Maybe my scumdar is just broken. I dunno. It seemed to be malfunctioning big time on HWS.

You realize that whatever real-life situation is leading to EP's lack of activity (which I fully believe him on) has nothing to do with his alignment, right? I think that him saying he doesn't think people have valid justifications for scumreading him conflicts pretty heavily with him expecting to get lynched such that one of the two opinions must have been faked.

i think i'm really warming up to the possibility of Athena!scum.
particularly as herself and HWS barely talked about each-other at all yesterday

I'll admit that he slipped under my radar, but looking from his ISO at me there's definitely something there – how closely did you look at his ISO and what did you get out of it?

Also @Maxous, did you come to a conclusion at all there on EP? You quoted all of EP's posts and briefly described them, but you didn't really talk

about

them.
Also, definitely agreeing with Thor on 1241 being weak. "It's possible" is not a response to "why do you think this happened".

[Klick]

Transcend doesn't get his

second

shot. Which changes everything. That's why the Vig was made two-shot in this setup, and why vigs are numbered evenly in general. Eventually we could end up in MyLo, where optimal play is to no-lynch. Killing Transcend essentially means town lost a town-controlled kill.