Mini 318 - Simon Mafia! Over!
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With the hunt for Anti-Simon Operatives grinding down to a halt due to lack of new information, a deadline is imposed:
August 25
. At deadline, another no lynch will occur unless we have another vote for an extention. If granted, the extention will be at the cost of another day .Vote Count
Drummer
- 2 - (Cogito Ergo Sum, petroleumjelly) Not Voting: Ameliaslay, MrBuddyLee, Ibaesha, Machiavellian-Mafia, mikeburnfire, Drummer
8 alive, 5 to lynch
Tonight's Lockout Floor will be
RED
and
GREEN
"All claims so far are truthful."
(Letter found taped to the front entrance on Day 1)
Last edited by Vaughn on Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
On a Mafia-diet :wink:
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Drummer being scum does not force Amelia to be scum.petroleumjelly wrote:1.) If Drummer is scumwith Amelia, his 'confirmation' of Amelia's role-blocking means nothing (i.e. he could be scumclaimingto have been role-blocked, so that he does not have to fake three "investigations" today).
But there was no way for Amelia to know that. She would have been SCREWED if you did have a night action, so why would she take that risk?2.) I couldnotconfirm Amelia's claimed role-blocking on me. I don't know if I was role-blocked at all, because I made no night actions.
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That was not my point. My point is that if Drummer is scum, then there was probably onlyMBF wrote:Drummer being scum does not force Amelia to be scum.
one
role-blocking on Night One, and not
two.Most people call themMBF wrote:But there was no way for Amelia to know that. She would have been SCREWED if you did have a night action, so why would she take that risk?
gambits
, Mike, and I don't think it would be a bad one. The scum had already missed their kill for Night Two: they were at a distinct
disadvantage. The scum could have decided beforehand that if one of their kills were ever blocked for whatever reason, they would run a gambit implicating somebody (in this case,
me
) to see if they could get an easy lynch (and they almost did). After I had essentially led the charge on a mislynch of Pie the day before, I think I was a pretty good target for a wagon directly afterwards. When I had come up innocent, who's to blame Amelia afterwards? "Well, I blocked him, but I couldn't know
whether or not he was scum or if my block helped. I never said my role-blocking stopped a kill, you all just started voting him before I could do anything." See how that works? If I had claimed a night-action, it would have been my word against Amelia's.Either way, I
don't
think Amelia is the lynch for today, so we can save this discussion for tomorrow.I'm tempted to semi-direct night actions, but since there will only be seven players tonight, I think M-M should track whoever he wants to track (although tracking either myself or MBL will be fruitless, seeing as the both of us will be locked in our rooms this coming night). Amelia can role-block whoever: if she is town, she still has the possibility of stopping a kill. Keeping the scum guessing is the way to go, I'm thinking.
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Drummer]Mafia traitor? I assume you mean something about neutral who turns scum? Why would there not be a reason? His role is *incredibly* suggestive of that possibility in my opinion. If you don't want to see what's right there, then I can't make you.[/quote] As I stated, the mafia has a very specific flavour, they're Anti-Simon Operatives. Taking that into account, no, he doesn't make sense as a mafia traitor. [quote= wrote:Huh? How would gaining another scum player be a "weakening" affect on the scum? My friend, that's just dumb. Gaining more people makes the mafia stronger, wouldn't you think?This comment was made in response to your comment about Amelia possibly being a scum rber. I mentioned these facts because I feel they are practically irreconcilable with the notion that you're town and Amelia's a scum rber.2 normal mafia + traitor is weaker than 3 mafia. I wasn't talking about 3 mafia + traitor, as that is not a relevant scenario. If you read the part of your post I was responding to, it should be obvious what I was talking about.
Drummer wrote:And on your third point...I really don't know what you're talking about with an insane cop. Are you reading two different games at once again? You know how that confuses you. I seem to recall Fritz's role having to do with being a doc, nothing about cop.
If you had bothered to read the next line(or hadn't chosen to ignore it), it should be obvious I was drawing a parallel. Insanity itself does not make one anti-town.
[quote="Drummer]Um, ok. Is there somewhere you were going with this? I'm starting to get the impression that you're wildly misreading my posts just because you're so certain I'm scum.CES wrote:You do realize Machi and Mike have also claimed to be blocked, in all likelihood by a scum rber?
Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Either Ibby or CES is red if we're 3-3-3-3, as Amelia, Drummer and MBF have all gotten off night actions.
PJ and I cannot murder anyone tonight or be killed most likely, so we pretty much shouldn't be a target of anyone.
Amelia- RB
Drummer- color cop
MBF- fumigator
Ibby- ?
CES- ?
M-M- tracker
If we have MBF fumigate someone we think is protown (say, M-M) with the post restriction gas, we can confirm that either:
1) PJ and MBF are scum
2) both MBF and his target are town
or 3) that MBF and his target are BOTH scum.
If we have M-M track Amelia and Amelia block Drummer, then we don't have to worry about any of those three killing tonight.
This leaves Ibby and CES, one of which is locked in tonight if we're 3-3-3-3. If there's a kill tonight, we may be able to figure out who did it by process of elimination.
Assuming there are three scum, at this point scum knows just about everyone's floor color unless M-M and PJ are scum. We should discuss the possibility of no-lynch and color claim. Since whoever's on red and green will be locked in, we can't rely on their night actions going through, but we don't know who we can't count on right now.
PJ and I cannot murder anyone tonight or be killed most likely, so we pretty much shouldn't be a target of anyone.
Amelia- RB
Drummer- color cop
MBF- fumigator
Ibby- ?
CES- ?
M-M- tracker
If we have MBF fumigate someone we think is protown (say, M-M) with the post restriction gas, we can confirm that either:
1) PJ and MBF are scum
2) both MBF and his target are town
or 3) that MBF and his target are BOTH scum.
If we have M-M track Amelia and Amelia block Drummer, then we don't have to worry about any of those three killing tonight.
This leaves Ibby and CES, one of which is locked in tonight if we're 3-3-3-3. If there's a kill tonight, we may be able to figure out who did it by process of elimination.
Assuming there are three scum, at this point scum knows just about everyone's floor color unless M-M and PJ are scum. We should discuss the possibility of no-lynch and color claim. Since whoever's on red and green will be locked in, we can't rely on their night actions going through, but we don't know who we can't count on right now.
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My points on MBF gassing someone rely on my suspicion that a scum fumigator wouldn't be given something so lame as a gas that makes you post colors. Also, MBF has been "confirmed" as protown by Thok, but his recent behavior hasn't seemed entirely protown to me. Thus my continuing doubt of his alignment.
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Wow, I have already gone over why I thinking No-Lynching is very suboptimal move at this point in the game.
As it is, I am getting the feeling that you are trying to stall a Drummer-lynch.
Also, why should we No-Lynch today simply to
1.) It means that Drummer will not be forced to give another 'investigation' tomorrow, because he will claim to be role-blocked by Amelia
2.) It means that AmeliaSlay's actions will (once again) only be verified by Drummer
3.) It means that the fact that Machiavellian-Mafia is supposed to track AmeliaSlay will mean
4.) It means that if MBF targets Machiavellian-Mafia with his gas, it will do nothing because M-M will have died, which will of course be awfully convenient for you as you will be able to try and throw suspicion on him some more
That is an absolutely
1.) Putting the town in a
2.) Taking away the point of my ability (to stop quicklynches, and to keep townspeople in the game)
3.) You take away the possibility of confirming my role
The fact that the Drummer-lynch is going so slowly is
I do not want to color-claim today. I would rather give the town optimal chances on somehow having the scum miss their kill tonight. I also do not want to No Lynch, and my reasons have already been presented.
PJ wrote:That said, I think it is actually to our advantage to have an even number of players at this point. For example, we lynch scum today, and scum have a successful kill overnight, leaving six players. The scum somehow get a quicklynch on town: I veto the lynch, and scum kill at night, and that leaves five players for the next day, and at least one scum very likely to be outed. We may be in LyLo, but I have a lot of hope that we can still pull out a win from this if we play our cards correctly. The hardest part will probably be a lynch on scum today. I think the scum will probably fall like dominoes afterwards.
PJ wrote:It is more than possible that we could lynch scum today, and scum could (for whatever reason) miss their kill tonight. Since we have eight players right now, that would leave us with seven players tomorrow.
That would leave us with an extra lynch for the town. Instead of being only to lynch three players of our choice, we would have four maximum lynches, which would be a monumental help to the town. By keeping the possibility open that scum could miss their kill tonight, I think we would be in better shape than by claiming today, where we will likely end up lynching the same person anyways. It's doubtful we would have that possibility at all if we were to mass-claim today.
PJ wrote:Lynching scum today means that:
1.) I will be able to protect against quicklynches tomorrow
2.) Gives me the opportunity to prove my role tomorrow, should anybody (such as MBL) still be in doubt
PJ wrote:Lynching scum today gives the opportunity for an extra lynch tomorrow, or at least somewhere along the line if we have a successful protection or if scum try to kill somebody on a locked floor.
I think there are more advantages to a lynch today than a no-lynch. We could still lynch AmeliaScum today, and Drummer will still have another result by tomorrow, and we will still be able to test his claimed role to a reasonable extent.
Like MBL, I am still of the opinion that there is probably a protective role somewhere, and I would much rather keep that person's identity and floor color hidden. That may be our ticket to having seven players tomorrow (the same objective of No-Lynch), except this way, we could possibly have one scum dead, instead of none at all.
You say that MBF's recent behavior hasn't seemed "entirely town". But MBF's recent behavior pretty much consists of suggesting a No-Lynch, and saying that he thinks AmeliaSlay is pro-town due to the role-blocking information we have in the game. You have been doing much the same thing: suggesting No-Lynch, and saying who you think is town. I fail to see the difference, and I am finding your comment towards him rather hypocritical.PJ wrote:1.) No-Lynching today takes away the opportunity for me to prove my role at all, so it doesn't exactly require "faith" in my role. I can't even use my role tonight, seeing as I'm locked in and all. If you want my ability to be proven at all, the only way to do so is to lynch scum today, and to have scum somehow miss their kill either tonight or a later night.
And also, it isn't so far-fetched that scum could eventually miss a kill. If not tonight, it's possible that we'll lynch another scum tomorrow, and then either scum will try to kill somebody who is protected, might try to kill somebody on a locked floor, and it is extremely possible that if we get the scum down to one member, they will have a 1/4 chance of being on the locked floor, and unable to perform their kill. The possibility is very much open. A No-Lynch takes that possibility away without question.
2.) See above. Lynching scum today means that a kill on M-M would take away one town role (unless he is protected, of course). I would much rather keep the scum guessing and unconfident if at all possible, rather then telling them exactly what the set-up is.
3.) The advantage works if we lynch scum today. My thought is that AmeliaSlay is scum. Of course that's not confirmed: it's doubtful we'll have any "confirmed scum" in this game until perhaps endgame, if there are confirmed townspeople. Drummer does not have to be town for my plan to work: but since you seem hell-bent on letting Drummer having another investigation tonight, I am saying that lynching scum today (presumably not Drummer), he will still have an investigation tomorrow that we could test. Capiche?
4.) Of course, that's obvious. The Doctor could be locked in the Red Floor. We have no way of knowing that: mass-claiming would only tell the scum whether or not they have to worry about an unlocked Doc.
Even if it's true that we have a Doctor locked on the Red Floor right now, then the scum still have to worry about a Doctor. And in that case, they still might try to kill who they think is the Doctor (which would fail, as the Doc would be in the locked floor), or they might be scared off from killing a more confirmed person (such as M-M or yourself, as scum might fear either of you having protection), worrying that the Doctor could be unlocked.
As it is, I am getting the feeling that you are trying to stall a Drummer-lynch.
Also, why should we No-Lynch today simply to
role-block Drummer
?! That means we cannot confirm Drummer's ability any further, and if AmeliaSlay and Drummer are scum together, you are basically giving them the perfect out
. I am really
not liking this. FoS: MrBuddyLee
. I think we may have found the third man of the scumgroup right here.If AmeliaSlay is scum, there is nothing stopping her from KILLING MACHIAVELLIAN-MAFIA. And do you know what
that
does?1.) It means that Drummer will not be forced to give another 'investigation' tomorrow, because he will claim to be role-blocked by Amelia
2.) It means that AmeliaSlay's actions will (once again) only be verified by Drummer
3.) It means that the fact that Machiavellian-Mafia is supposed to track AmeliaSlay will mean
nothing
, because he will not be able to give his results anyways
4.) It means that if MBF targets Machiavellian-Mafia with his gas, it will do nothing because M-M will have died, which will of course be awfully convenient for you as you will be able to try and throw suspicion on him some more
That is an absolutely
horrendous
plan with a gigantic flaw. If you are going to suggest plans like that again, I would highly suggest you take into account more scenarios than you are currently doing. You can't just give plans without considering the worst case, and the Achilles' Heel of that plan is if Machiavellian-Mafia is killed (which I'm sure the scum would have thought about long before me posting this here), pretty much the only
thing we have achieved is:1.) Putting the town in a
real
state of LyLo2.) Taking away the point of my ability (to stop quicklynches, and to keep townspeople in the game)
3.) You take away the possibility of confirming my role
The fact that the Drummer-lynch is going so slowly is
really
making me feel good about it. I think are finally on our way to catching scum.I do not want to color-claim today. I would rather give the town optimal chances on somehow having the scum miss their kill tonight. I also do not want to No Lynch, and my reasons have already been presented.
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Vaughn wrote:With the hunt for Anti-Simon Operatives grinding down to a halt due to lack of new information, a deadline is imposed:.August 30
Mod:
Why does this say august 30 while the title of thread says august 25? When is the real
deadline?It's the
25th
, nice catch!Like I mentioned before, no lynch is an uber-bad idea right now since we don't seem to have a vig and the only way for us to get rid of scum is lynching.MBL wrote:Assuming there are three scum, at this point scum knows just about everyone's floor color unless M-M and PJ are scum. We should discuss the possibility of no-lynch and color claim. Since whoever's on red and green will be locked in, we can't rely on their night actions going through, but we don't know who we can't count on right now.
And color claiming is a very bad idea as well since scum have no problem in claiming truthfully and all it will do is to out the protown players that will not be locked tonight.
Also MBL we should not direct the night targets for tonight since the scum can just counter them by using their abilities such as ROLEBLOCKING and KILLING. I think it is best to just keep scum guessing and hopefully they miss.
The end justifies the means.
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I'm not necessarily saying we should no-lynch. I'm pointing out that since we have two floors locked, we probably only have four people who can kill tonight and four people who can be killed. If we know who's capable of blocking etc. tonight, we may be able to lock scum down to the point where they can't do anything without being spotted.
Two on blue, M-M and one other person on yellow are probably the only people capable of killing tonight. If one of you on yellow or blue is protown, you know this narrows possible scum who can kill tonight down even further. If we block/track, there should either be no kill tonight or a kill we can easily track.
So let's discuss what's possible before we decide to lynch someone who may or may not be town. Should we ask Drummer what color he's on, for example? If scum wants to kill tonight, M-M is an infinitely more desirable target for them than Drummer (assuming both are protown), but if Drummer's town then that would possibly enable scum to identify the remaining floors people are on. If Drummer's scum then we gain information and lose nothing.
I'm not advocating a position, I'm saying we should discuss and see if we have an easy win.
Two on blue, M-M and one other person on yellow are probably the only people capable of killing tonight. If one of you on yellow or blue is protown, you know this narrows possible scum who can kill tonight down even further. If we block/track, there should either be no kill tonight or a kill we can easily track.
So let's discuss what's possible before we decide to lynch someone who may or may not be town. Should we ask Drummer what color he's on, for example? If scum wants to kill tonight, M-M is an infinitely more desirable target for them than Drummer (assuming both are protown), but if Drummer's town then that would possibly enable scum to identify the remaining floors people are on. If Drummer's scum then we gain information and lose nothing.
I'm not advocating a position, I'm saying we should discuss and see if we have an easy win.
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At this point I am pretty sure I know where all but 4 people are for sure, unless someone's lied.
If Amelia, Drummer and Ibby, for example, are scum, they know what floor EVERYONE is on.
If M-M, Drummer and MBF are scum, they know where everyone is unless Drummer and MBF are both on blue, in which case they know all but two for sure.
If Amelia, Ibby and PJ are scum, they know where everyone is unless Amelia and Ibby are both on blue, in which case they know all but two for sure.
My point is that scum pretty much knows where everyone is already. Town doesn't, and it's interfering to some extent with our ability to plan. Should we mass floorclaim?
If Amelia, Drummer and Ibby, for example, are scum, they know what floor EVERYONE is on.
If M-M, Drummer and MBF are scum, they know where everyone is unless Drummer and MBF are both on blue, in which case they know all but two for sure.
If Amelia, Ibby and PJ are scum, they know where everyone is unless Amelia and Ibby are both on blue, in which case they know all but two for sure.
My point is that scum pretty much knows where everyone is already. Town doesn't, and it's interfering to some extent with our ability to plan. Should we mass floorclaim?
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Fine, fine, I can agree to a color-claim. Here's what we know so far:
Pie_is_Good, Unnightkillable Townie, Dead
MrBuddyLee, ???
Fritzler, Placebo Doc, Dead
Machiavellian-Mafia, Tracker
Thok, Daytime Investigator, Dead
The_Holy_Thom, Amnesiac-Inventor, Dead
PetroleumJelly, Lead Investigator
We also know that none of MikeBurnFire, AmeliaSlay, or Drummer are on the Red Floor, due to night actions (although it actually has just occured to me that Drummer
I can see the argument that the scum probably already know (or have a very good idea) of where everybody is floor-wise anyways, so I will agree with a floor-claim simply so discussion on it does not stall the game to the point where we end up accidentally No-Lynching (especially since we are going to need the full five votes in order to achieve a lynch as opposed to some lesser number: I fully intend for us to catch scum today, rather than twiddling our thumbs talking about our floor colors only find the thread closed and no decision to be had).
Deadline is appraoching fairly quickly (six days from today, by my calander), and I know I probably will not be able to post for the remained of today (Saturday) because I will be moving back to school.
Red
:Pie_is_Good, Unnightkillable Townie, Dead
MrBuddyLee, ???
Yellow
:Fritzler, Placebo Doc, Dead
Machiavellian-Mafia, Tracker
Blue
:Thok, Daytime Investigator, Dead
Green
:The_Holy_Thom, Amnesiac-Inventor, Dead
PetroleumJelly, Lead Investigator
We also know that none of MikeBurnFire, AmeliaSlay, or Drummer are on the Red Floor, due to night actions (although it actually has just occured to me that Drummer
could
be in Red if he is scum and simply faking investigations to begin with).I can see the argument that the scum probably already know (or have a very good idea) of where everybody is floor-wise anyways, so I will agree with a floor-claim simply so discussion on it does not stall the game to the point where we end up accidentally No-Lynching (especially since we are going to need the full five votes in order to achieve a lynch as opposed to some lesser number: I fully intend for us to catch scum today, rather than twiddling our thumbs talking about our floor colors only find the thread closed and no decision to be had).
Deadline is appraoching fairly quickly (six days from today, by my calander), and I know I probably will not be able to post for the remained of today (Saturday) because I will be moving back to school.
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This deception still bothers me. You say your intention was to run me up to a claiming number of votes to see if I'd lie about my floor color. I find that an extraordinarily weak reason for misleading town.Drummer wrote:MBL--I'm voting you for reasons besides your posting. I suppose you deserve to know that much.
And your reason would be? You and M-M both claimed to have been locked in your rooms on night 1. How does that fact in any way help you determine that he's telling the truth? It would require that there are two roleblockers, something there is not any evidence for in this game other than yours and M-M's N1 claims.Drummer wrote:I also have a reason to believe Machiavelli is telling the truth about his being locked in his room. Not sure what I think of his alignment, but pretty sure he's tellling the truth.
Pretty flippant statement for a pro-town player to make.Drummer, on Fritz wrote:Even if he's the wrong lynch, he's useless in this game.
You repeated this reasoning for finding CES innocent twice... if you turn up scum I will see this as repetition of a weak excuse for finding a scumpartner protown. Also, within a week of calling CES most innocent you suddenly found him most scummy. That's a stark change in a short period of time.Drummer wrote:I find CES least suspicious at the moment since VitR seemed so pro-town to me.
Dude, you claim to have investigated M-M night 3. You got yellow, he said he was on yellow Day one. You knew your sanity. Something is not right with you.Drummer, day 4 wrote:If you're going to floorclaim, I'd rather if you do it before I reveal who I checked out. I can test my sanity that way(though I don't see this type of cop as having those issues).
All these quotes lead me to believe you're scum. Quite possibly with Amelia and CES.
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I was locked in my room.MrBuddyLee wrote:M-M, Drummer, MBF, can you guys please give us the flavor of the blocks that happened to you?
I do. It'll probably prove that we have to RB'sDo we want to know who M-M tried to track night 2?
Also, blue floor.
"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill with rope and a slim majority."
Flash Guide to Mafia and Flash Mafia Roles
Um. Well, I guess we just disagree. A crazy person could be SK too, not necessarily needing the flavor of the mafia.CES wrote:As I stated, the mafia has a very specific flavour, they're Anti-Simon Operatives. Taking that into account, no, he doesn't make sense as a mafia traitor.
Moron. I never even suggested that idea. You're making crap up. Or English isn't your first language. I never said anything like mafia traitor.CES wrote:2 normal mafia + traitor is weaker than 3 mafia. I wasn't talking about 3 mafia + traitor, as that is not a relevant scenario. If you read the part of your post I was responding to, it should be obvious what I was talking about.
You
misinterpretted me. I mean, c'mon, I'm not an idiot who thinks that mafia losing a man is beneficial.I wish I could respond to more of your post...but frankly I can't tell who said what. I emphatically agree with your idea to preview your own posts.
MBL--You wanted to know about my block flavor. I simply found that my own door had been locked. Not really any flavor involved.
WOAH! You're right, that's screwed up. I cannot explain this.MBL wrote:I was also somewhat surprised that Drummer was able to target me with his ability night 2, considering I'm on a locked floor.
I wasn't thinking about what caused the door to be locked. I was just thinking about the similarity of what had happened to us.MBL wrote:Drummer wrote:I also have a reason to believe Machiavelli is telling the truth about his being locked in his room. Not sure what I think of his alignment, but pretty sure he's tellling the truth.
And your reason would be? You and M-M both claimed to have been locked in your rooms on night 1. How does that fact in any way help you determine that he's telling the truth? It would require that there are two roleblockers, something there is not any evidence for in this game other than yours and M-M's N1 claims.
I don't really care. My tolerance had run out for players who don't even try.MBL wrote:Pretty flippant statement for a pro-town player to make.Drummer wrote:Even if he's the wrong lynch, he's useless in this game.
I agree with MBL that the scum ought to know the floors pretty well by now anyway. So I'll let you guys know that I'm on blue floor.
- mikeburnfire
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mikeburnfire
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I can.Drummer wrote:WOAH! You're right, that's screwed up. I cannot explain this.MBL wrote:I was also somewhat surprised that Drummer was able to target me with his ability night 2, considering I'm on a locked floor.
Vote Drummer
"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill with rope and a slim majority."
Flash Guide to Mafia and Flash Mafia Roles
- mikeburnfire
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mikeburnfire
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Actually,
If Ibby and Amelia are on Yellow and green respectively, then I believe the three scum are among {Drummer - PJ - Ibby - CES (orMBL)}
If Ibby and Amelia are on Green and yellow respectively, then I believe the three scum are {Drummer - Ibby (or PJ) - CES (or MBL)}
If both of them are on the same floor or either of them is on red or blue, then I'm willing to bet that somebody is lying.
Unvote
. I still think you're scum, but I'm going to wait until Ibby and Amelia claim.If Ibby and Amelia are on Yellow and green respectively, then I believe the three scum are among {Drummer - PJ - Ibby - CES (orMBL)}
If Ibby and Amelia are on Green and yellow respectively, then I believe the three scum are {Drummer - Ibby (or PJ) - CES (or MBL)}
If both of them are on the same floor or either of them is on red or blue, then I'm willing to bet that somebody is lying.
"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill with rope and a slim majority."
Flash Guide to Mafia and Flash Mafia Roles
- Machiavellian-Mafia
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Machiavellian-Mafia
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