Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[HoldenGolden]

Ok can we move away from the "everyone is toxic" stance (which you know is false kirari from our wagonomics game) and focus on what is actually going on and the fact floof still wants to 1v1.

First business, ya or nay, LL claim is legit

[Kirari Momobami]

No one is questioning your claim LL, scum are just celebrating in their PT at the free win you're giving them

[HoldenGolden]

Stay positive friends

[humaneatingmonkey]

I always want D1 to end fast, independent of my role or alignment. I hate D1.

yeah sure LL we dont want to damage that TPR meta

[SE hat]

There's a few things I think you can tell in someone's posting, for instance very confident they won't get lynched is PR tell, some people lurk the background the games and don't try to participate much (relying on role to sort stuff out), players more skeptical of claims are often more likely PR depending on context of setup

[/SE hat]

[clidd]

so she can say that her number of posts isn't indictive of whether or not she's scum? because you're saying here right now that she couldn't be scum because she has exceeded her scum-quota of posts. that means she's burdened with a lower post count meta as scum.

No, that’s not it. It's just that I remember a past game where I metaread a player called 'Datisi' and compared the number of posts he had in some games as town on the D1~D2 stage with the game we were in. The number exceeded the total he used to type in games as scum and based on that I had a TL on it, which proved to be correct later. Well, it's just a flashback.

[humaneatingmonkey]

LL's claim is legit. I think there's merit to his early claim, as it's a good point that Kirari somehow crumbed all the TPR in column A.

[humaneatingmonkey]

But is it the most effective time to claim? Not really. Kirari's lynch can be achieved without claiming PR.

[clidd]

But I confess that it is mediocre to convert a mathematical value into a read.

[HoldenGolden]

@ Cli2d

The issue with meta reading kirari (which I've learned this game) is that they are more than able to change their playstyle to whatever they want. It pinged me earlier how different they were from their wagonomics alt I played with, but then after some reading this accounts playstyle is totally different in general.

[Kirari Momobami]

I'm not accepting a 1v1 with psycho yoof when clidd is like naked scum

Peaches replaces out because, as scum, she knows that town is telling her to replace out and that gives her permission to do so

Clidd replaces in and does NOTHING except TMI that my mason soft is unlikely

He is unable to find me town throughout day 2 despite the fact that as the strongest player in the game outside myself he should be capable of doing so

Partner is less certain but I'm pretty sure he's spent the majority of the game pocketing town and less theatering with his scumbuddy and I'm kinda inclined right now to think that monkey would be the best bet for partner given the minimum number of interactions and placement in clidd readslist but I'm frankly not thinking that clearly right now, I thought I was at a point where I could solve and re-evaluate today and now I'm deciding if I should just sitequit frankly

[LuckyLuciano]

Clidd, can we focus on solving instead of whether Kirari is trying to establish meta reads for the future? It's kinda bad for people to be intentionally playing towards a meta anyway, unless that meta is one where their town and scum ranges strongly overlap and therefore the meta is useless in reading them game-by-game.

Pedit: Sure, Kirari could have been lynched without me claiming, but if we lynch him then we're lynching goon and there's a 40% I'm either NK'd or RB'd, as mafia would be splitting their night actions tonight. By claiming I die tonight, but I also get to preflip Kirari red and give my most sincere attempt to solve.

[Kirari Momobami]

Pedit: Sure, Kirari could have been lynched without me claiming, but if we lynch him then we're lynching goon and there's a 40% I'm either NK'd or RB'd, as mafia would be splitting their night actions tonight. By claiming I die tonight, but I also get to preflip Kirari red and give my most sincere attempt to solve.

So throwing in two totally different ways
-Slayer's gambit on your inno
-Deliberately eating night kill as TPR

By what metric right now are you playing to wincon?

[Kirari Momobami]

Clidd, can we focus on solving instead of whether Kirari is trying to establish meta reads for the future? It's kinda bad for people to be intentionally playing towards a meta anyway, unless that meta is one where their town and scum ranges strongly overlap and therefore the meta is useless in reading them game-by-game.

That clidd has not already solved me but is instead saying *random noise* is precisely why he is scum

[LuckyLuciano]

By claiming I die tonight,

but I also get to preflip Kirari red and give my most sincere attempt to solve.

Honestly, I like you less and less the more you post.

[Kirari Momobami]

Clidd as town would look at this game and say, "huh okay Kirari is town, let's take a step back guys."

Instead he's like... "well meta isn't really clearly indicative... but you know I dunno guys, not really sure, are you sure that YOU all want to lynch her, townies?????"

[Kirari Momobami]

By claiming I die tonight,

but I also get to preflip Kirari red and give my most sincere attempt to solve.

Honestly, I like you less and less the more you post.

pre-flipping me red while giving a "sincere attempt to solve" is a contradiction in terms

You are pre-flipping green as red so that all the work you put in when you get killed generates maximum confusion for town

This is why you don't claim guilties on innocents or pre-flip in VCA just because of a hunch.

[humaneatingmonkey]

okay so let's use Day 2 as a discussion on what's gonna happen next if Kirari flips town or if Kirari flips scum.

If Kirari flips scum, 3b is the next lynch for sure.
If Kirari flips town, it's LYLO.

We need to pre-pick our lynches because we have the benefit of a pre-D3.

[clidd]

Clidd as town would look at this game and say, "huh okay Kirari is town, let's take a step back guys."

Instead he's like... "well meta isn't really clearly indicative... but you know I dunno guys, not really sure, are you sure that YOU all want to lynch her, townies?????"

No, the point is that nothing you typed gave me the image that you are town, so I'm looking for information on the meta about you. If you think I'm scum, then I'm sorry, but besides the terrible performance you had in this game, your reads are not helping either.

[humaneatingmonkey]

The day ends with a Kirari lynch. No doubt about it. clidd, Yooh, LL, me, or maybe Holden are already down to do it.

Kirari, let's assume you flip town, what do you think is gonna happen next?

[clidd]

Clidd as town would look at this game and say, "huh okay Kirari is town, let's take a step back guys."

Instead he's like... "well meta isn't really clearly indicative... but you know I dunno guys, not really sure, are you sure that YOU all want to lynch her, townies?????"

Another problem with you being town is that I would have to be wrong on my PoE and one of my TRs would be scum.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Let's move on. This squabble is pointless and toxic. What's done is done. Let's please remember that this is a newbie game and there is a learning curve to playing mafia. Let's just discuss improvements at endgame.

[Kirari Momobami]

besides the terrible performance you had in this game, your reads are not helping either.

which read are you disagreeing? are you disagreeing LL is town like I have said all day?

Aside from that, I think it's now mathematically confirmed I have voted both members of the scum team at some point

So sorry but it's unlikely that I have been unwilling to at least consider the scum as scum -- so why are my reads "not helping"?

[clidd]

besides the terrible performance you had in this game, your reads are not helping either.

which read are you disagreeing? are you disagreeing LL is town like I have said all day?

Aside from that, I think it's now mathematically confirmed I have voted both members of the scum team at some point

So sorry but it's unlikely that I have been unwilling to at least consider the scum as scum -- so why are my reads "not helping"?

OK, if you're town, tell me who's scum outside of your Scum!Clidd theory.

[clidd]

I need 2 names.

[Kirari Momobami]

Incidentally the only slot I have not voted this whole game is the confirmed town, I think? Who now wants to slayer's gambit me because apparently I'm "open-wolfing" for actually solving the game

Clidd/3bounty
Clidd/Yooh
Clidd/humaneatingmonkey
Clidd/HoldenGolden
3bounty/Yooh
3bounty/HEM
3bounty/HoldenGolden
Yooh/HEM
Yooh/Holden
humaneatingmonkey/HoldenGolden

OK let's say we posit that Yooh's freakout at me was town-indicative. Sure, LL is freaking out and he's town. I don't know why people are LOSING THEIR SHIT because I'm trying to avoid getting mislynched but whatever.

I don't think we can really hard town Yooh but he did kinda push boundaries of what I'd expect from scum this game

Compare that to 3B -- he did the sorta-slayer's gambit with Alora yesterday, recognized Alora needed to go, didn't really like my defense, but did argue for some sort of lynch and consolidation yesterday. Maybe not hard town but I honestly liked his tone most of day 1. Today him side-lining but supporting the smear on me very very quietly could swing either way

Holden -- 1016 is a pretty dedicated white knight. If so, I'll take it. I'm fine tossing Holden for the moment as a contender.

That momentarily gets us to:

Clidd/3bounty

Clidd/Yooh

Clidd/humaneatingmonkey

Clidd/HoldenGolden

3bounty/Yooh

3bounty/HEM

3bounty/HoldenGolden
Yooh/HEM
Yooh/Holden
humaneatingmonkey/HoldenGolden

HEM has been very reasonable. I like a lot of the things he's said. He did want to push me at EoD yesterday. If Alora was not going to go through, then that could have been an attempted pocket of Alora. In any case it's possible he'd want towncred. The question is, was it too much activity to be scum? Would scum want to destabilize the planned mislynch that much? Maybe? Scum often whiteknight. I can't really hard eliminate HEM as scum-possible but maybe with a closer reread of his iso I could find town. I remember disliking his RVS, kinda liking his Who townread, and the night kill makes a it more sense if HEM is town and scum were killing UTRs. So not my ideal candidate for scum but not eliminated.

If we're saying simplest PoE explanation right now, and *are willing to give Yooh benefit of the doubt* that he has crossed a line out of scum territory (which I am not sure I want to do) then solve would be clidd/3B

Additional risks being that Holden was hard white knighting me earlier, but it's such a hard white knight it'd surprise me at least a little