In post 1163, Eragon wrote:who do you think keyser is town?
i could see having some reasons for a town lean, but willing to put in heaven im suprised tbh.
good tone and his ate at the end of d2 felt genuine, seems interested in scumhunting similarly to other games i played with him.
w/ volxen and tw, tw's read had a lot more nuance and progression? and i feel like he had a large role in like setting those players as scumread, whereas volxen is just like "yeah a few of these points why eragon is townreading creature are kind of wrong" at a time when i think creature and eragon are considered the scummiest players here, and says "Any why doesn't he consider the possibility that Keyser could be pushing him as scum as well? Why is Keyser the only person on his wagon that gets a free pass?" while quoting creature openly entertaining the possibility keyser is scum. tw's reads feel a lot more developed than volxen's in this regard and also his entire reason for pushing eragon and keyser as scum is essentially "they make sense as buddies with creature" but he's also like "I'm like 99.99% certain that there is at least one scum among {Keyser, Creature, Eragon}. I don't see a world where they are all town." which doesn't actually account for how his push was revolved around creature and preflip associations.
his push today is basically just "people on the Creature wagon are scum" which seems like a really surface level view and doesn't at all account for the possibility that scum might have just stayed off the wagon which happens regularly in games generally.
i'm tired right now so sorry if none of this makes sense.
@Ausuka, do you really think my conclusion about their being scum on Creature's wagon is unreasonable? Even in games with the usual town:scum ratio (e.g., 7:2, 10:3, etc.), I still believe that in the vast majority of cases, townies don't get lynched without scum involvement, especially on day one where the most votes are required to achieve a lynch. I have done this kind of VCA analysis, as town, in multiple newbie games that I have played.
In this game, I believe this applies even more-so than usual because the town:scum ratio is 6:3 rather than 7:2, and a third of the original playerlist is scum. To put it in perspective, there are only 6 townies, so if Creature's mislynch wagon was all-town, it would mean that 100% of his fellow town players all voted to lynch him, and that the scumteam is {Keyser, Eragon, Labrat}. I'm 99.99% confident that isn't the case.
I furthermore concluded that Irrelephant isn't the sole scum on Creature's wagon, because his vote didn't really make a significant difference in the outcome of day one (i.e., Creature would have been mislynched even if Irrelephant did not place the hammer vote). So what is wrong with my conclusion that there is scum among {TW, Dr. J, Ausuka} based on VCA? Do you really think I should be entertaining the notion of a {Keyser, Eragon, Labrat} scumteam at this point?
I'm not saying that no scum are on the Creature wagon; I'm saying that there may be 1 or 2 scum off it. The only reason the Creature wagon couldn't be all-town is that LabRat and Keyser were both outside it; I've played plenty of games with no scum on the d1 mislynch wagon. Town aren't actually all that good and townies suspect other townies all the time. It's perfectly reasonable to suppose that over a majority of townies would elect to lynch somebody, especially somebody acting suspicious. It's possible for Irrelephant to be the only scum on the wagon for example and I don't think it's possible to rule it out, even if there's a limited number of possible scumteams containing him.
Even ignoring accuracy, saying "in this game with 3 scum out of 9 players, there's probably 1 at least scum in {Ausuka, Jekyll, worst, volxen}" isn't really a helpful point and is also the only alignment-hunting you've done today.
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:39 am
by LabRat01
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I’ve been catching up since some time, planning to prodge till I finish
Keyser is still scum. Haven't read much, but there wasn't anything on the thread till now that would make me change my mind
gonna be back when I finish
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:14 am
by Keyser Söze
You said my interactions with Creature and TW were scummy on D1... what’s your current read on TW? Still strong town?
Just because I did not share your read on Creature and TW on D1 doesn’t mean I am scum.
I have play history with both Creature and TW (nearly almost miss-read them) - so why does my struggle to understand them equate to scumminess (I’m not going to approach those two specific slots the way you did, they’re never easy reads).
Basically I thought scum would be likely to want to be near the end of the wagon to not be associated with the lynch. So I felt a bit concerned that you were seemingly moving 'down' the wagon from #0 to #5
I've also had concerns in the past about you buddying me a bit. So overall I am townreading you less than I was.
Why does a scum thought process lead towards me thinking that aggressively tunnelling him all day and encouraging the list to lynch him while using my vote to sort people resulting in it ultimately shifting backwards down his wagon = not being associated with the lynch?
This isn't even level 0 thinking. It's level -0.5. I genuinely don't think it makes any sense.
There's a couple of conventional scumtells on the Creature wagon via vca and I am not one of them. Wanna have another go?
Basically I thought scum would be likely to want to be near the end of the wagon to not be associated with the lynch. So I felt a bit concerned that you were seemingly moving 'down' the wagon from #0 to #5
I've also had concerns in the past about you buddying me a bit. So overall I am townreading you less than I was.
There's a couple of conventional scumtells on the Creature wagon via vca and I am not one of them. Wanna have another go?
suppose you englighten me? I'm not familiar with many "conventional" scumtells tbh.
Sorry friend you're gonna have to explain why you think I'm scum (refer the parts of that post you snipped for no reason).
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:39 am
by the worst
I guess that dream also had her owning up to to being a mastina alt so... grain of salt
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:51 am
by ManateeDude
Did you know?
Vicuñas are the non-domesticated ancestors of llamas
Votecount 2.02
Time till end of heaven phase 1: (expired on 2018-11-22 15:30:00)
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:28 am
by Keyser Söze
In post 1230, the worst wrote:I guess that dream also had her owning up to to being a mastina alt so... grain of salt
In post 1230, the worst wrote:I guess that dream also had her owning up to to being a mastina alt so... grain of salt
Is Mastina fond of slimy players?
I mean... Probably sometimes... but also Labby probably isn't mastina
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:34 am
by Ausuka
Yeah, Labrat isn't mastina.
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:36 am
by Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde
I'm absolutely happy with Keyser. I'm townreading him at the moment and more so than tw or lab. Volxen... I'm not sending someone to heaven based on meta. I'd rather send a townread to heaven
VOTE: Keyser
As for the rest, by POE scum must be among them though I am not discounting my possible townreads, tw and labrat, I'm a bit shaken in those by scummy things I've seen
Basically I thought scum would be likely to want to be near the end of the wagon to not be associated with the lynch. So I felt a bit concerned that you were seemingly moving 'down' the wagon from #0 to #5
I've also had concerns in the past about you buddying me a bit. So overall I am townreading you less than I was.
Why does a scum thought process lead towards me thinking that aggressively tunnelling him all day and encouraging the list to lynch him while using my vote to sort people resulting in it ultimately shifting backwards down his wagon = not being associated with the lynch?
This isn't even level 0 thinking. It's level -0.5. I genuinely don't think it makes any sense.
There's a couple of conventional scumtells on the Creature wagon via vca and I am not one of them. Wanna have another go?
Basically I thought scum would be likely to want to be near the end of the wagon to not be associated with the lynch. So I felt a bit concerned that you were seemingly moving 'down' the wagon from #0 to #5
I've also had concerns in the past about you buddying me a bit. So overall I am townreading you less than I was.
There's a couple of conventional scumtells on the Creature wagon via vca and I am not one of them. Wanna have another go?
suppose you englighten me? I'm not familiar with many "conventional" scumtells tbh.
Sorry friend you're gonna have to explain why you think I'm scum (refer the parts of that post you snipped for no reason).
I've explained it to the best of my ability already. Am I that bad at communicating?
To reiterate, someone just looking at that wagon vote count would naturally look at who was first and who was last on the wagon in most detail. Especially if they hadn't been paying attention they might conclude that someone near the middle was just sheeping Thinking specifically of those who replaced in near day end and might not have seen that you had been pushing him all day. It might not make much sense but it was what I saw on the surface of it all
I'm not saying I scumread you, as I've said I townread you less because of this and a few other thing
*hits head against wall repeatedly
inb4 you ask me to explain it again
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:27 am
by the worst
mmmkay I think we look at wagons very differently. it wasn't really clear why you thought I was ever scum off wagonomics
American Presidents squad can probably back me up, vca on scum!me is a mess
thinking about Keyser but still kinda uncomfortable with him being the heaven 1 pick. if anyone actually objects to Labby please lmk?
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:29 am
by Keyser Söze
Only problem with Labby in heaven is that they would send me to hell (martyr kill).
So I want to go through their s/read of me with them.
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:34 am
by the worst
actually fair point. Labby should probably be a part of sorting you.
Somehow I've gone from having tonnes of townreads to paranoid scumreading nearly everyone.
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:35 am
by the worst
who's like
just town here?
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:48 am
by Keyser Söze
While Irrelephant is away, let's talk about him
Mean things only
No one is Nauci-town this game.
Even a slot like me is in contention for heaven on D2!
ye I agree
I'm disappointed in myself for how d1 went down but I still feel like the most obvious town here. Still, I don't want to go to heaven (Creature correctly identified that my reads aren't good enough to win the game from there)
who are the wolves on wagon tho
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:16 pm
by Keyser Söze
You and Irrelphant
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:17 pm
by Keyser Söze
LabRat off it
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:17 pm
by Keyser Söze
That is the hottest take you'll hear all game.
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:21 pm
by volxen
If we are sending someone off of Creature's wagon (Keyser, Labrat, Eragon) to Heaven, then I will need to ISO all three of them as I still haven't ruled out any of them from being scum.
@Keyser, would you send Labrat over Eragon to Heaven?
