Ok, Karnage's post was NAI then. But still, mafia probably noted that TRQ was a mason with that initial joke.
If that is the case, I believe there is an SE player in the scum duo. I don't see
Scum!Newbie
selecting their kill out of the potential vocal threats, unless he has an argumentative condition to beat these players later, which means a non-newbie player there.
In post 1294, clidd wrote:Conclusion: Mafia was aware that TRQ's claim had been true since the beginning of the day. What happened next, such as reactions, self-confidence and proactivity that TRQ demonstrated only confirmed this feeling.
ok, so if you think the mafia realized trq is mason from the begining, does that tell you any closer on who the mafia *is*?
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:30 pm
by clidd
Datisi doesn't fit that profile, so a scum between Skitter and Menalque is highly likely.
I would like to hear Menalque's replacement on the current lynch and the reason for his vote.
In post 1294, clidd wrote:Conclusion: Mafia was aware that TRQ's claim had been true since the beginning of the day. What happened next, such as reactions, self-confidence and proactivity that TRQ demonstrated only confirmed this feeling.
ok, so if you think the mafia realized trq is mason from the begining, does that tell you any closer on who the mafia *is*?
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:41 pm
by Datisi
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:41 pm
by Datisi
i'm probably being dense right now. will return to this later.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:50 pm
by clidd
In post 1264, Marashu wrote:Wow, ok, the day's just starting and I'm already L-2.
I have a reason for thinking that I was wrong about skitt and that she is town. Also, Mena pivoting from town to town as scum doesn't make sense to me either so Mala is probably town as well. So that means the scum has to be in {clidd, Dat, Mad, word}.
I don't like how Mad jumped onto my wagon right away today. On D1 she jumped from Wu to me back to Wu, but then Mena was talking about how she was super town because of that. I know we can't ask him, but can anyone else explain how that action is town?
clidd/Mad and clidd/word make sense to me. so does Dat/Mad but less so. clidd/Dat doesn't make too much sense to me (clidd clearing Dat was based on Wu being scum, and with that pairing both know that Wu would be town). The dynamic between Dat/Mad on D1 and again today doesn't feel like they would be a team. Dat/word and Mad/word are possible - I don't remember much interaction there of note so I think I'd need to review that.
Why would
Scum!Marashu
suspect Maduisha? I understand the suspicion about my slot, but I believe it is illogical for him to raise doubts about someone who has a bigger townread by the majority.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:55 pm
by clidd
I'm going to take a break too. Time to prepare coffee in the meantime.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm
by Malakittens
Planning on giving my full run down tmrw
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:40 pm
by clidd
Ok.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:43 pm
by clidd
I've been thinking.. Statistically speaking, is it possible that all three SE players are town ?
I believe that in practically every game I played there was at least 1 scum SE, but I didn't see it in the forum rules as something mandatory.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:22 pm
by clidd
My alternative theory suggests
[Skitter, Menalque, Datisi]
as towns because of their period of posts between 135 to 174 where there was a short town dynamic dialogue among the trio.
And considering that Maduisha is potentially town too, PoE would suggest
[Marashu, Word]
as both scums.
However, this scenario would be very utopian and far from the game state we are in.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:26 pm
by clidd
Another theory would be that both wagons were town yesterday
(Town!Marashu, Town!GeneralWu)
, so there would be a big implication on Skitter being scum for not predicting this and persisting in his push today. The possibility of Menalque being scum would not be ruled out, but it would be more timid compared to Skitter, since Menalque's push was significantly more dense and illogical since
Scum!Menalque
would be aware that
Town!Skitter
would be in a position to detect his inconsequential movement, therefore, he would be more cautious in encouraging the directing of votes from one wagon to the other. There was a motivation for that too (981, 994). The partner is something that would depend on who is killed during the night, because of PoE.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:38 pm
by clidd
In any case, there is always a chance that I made a mistake in my personal read selection, so I’m looking forward to seeing what Malakittens will bring to us tomorrow.
Skitter remains the slot that I feel most uncomfortable about possibly going to lylo, considering that she is a player who normally advances to the late game as scum frequently.
And yes, Marashu is the main lynch today in all scenarios.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:39 pm
by clidd
That's all, going to bed now.
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:43 pm
by Maduisha
In post 1293, skitter30 wrote:
it's, in some scenarios, much better to try to divert the lynch off of your partner than to just let it be, especially if you don't think you'll get flak for it later on
Okay, but do you actually think scum!Menalque does this? I mean expecting to not get the spotlight right after doing that while playing with people that know how he plays and were watching him carefully already. I really don't think him playing as scum would ignore the fact that you were already paranoid of him, at the very least.
In post 1311, clidd wrote:I've been thinking.. Statistically speaking, is it possible that all three SE players are town ?
I believe that in practically every game I played there was at least 1 scum SE, but I didn't see it in the forum rules as something mandatory.
There's no such rule, no. All combinations are possible.
as towns because of their period of posts between 135 to 174 where there was a short town dynamic dialogue among the trio.
And considering that Maduisha is potentially town too, PoE would suggest
[Marashu, Word]
as both scums.
However, this scenario would be very utopian and far from the game state we are in.
...I find that PoE quite disturbing, actually.
I originally pushed mad to vote mar instead of gw on 810 for the same reasons she pointed out, and voted him myself until factors completely exogenous to me or mar (gw voting mar, wich actually disturbed me quite a bit) made me change my mind (wich, retrospectevely as skitter points out, was a wrong decision). I rly cant follow your train of thoughts from your own perspective on this, to consider that more likely than a scum on those 3.
Btw the possibility of no SE scum is 5/12, wich is quite high actually.
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:32 am
by Datisi
If you've got anything you want to talk about word, I'm around. I think we're mostly waiting for Mala's revision of the game and vote explanation, so. I don't think I've got anything to add in the meantime.
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:40 am
by word321
Yeah, I think we r all in the same boat on that. Mens slot is being suspected by a lot of players after all.
Im still trying to follow the events of the game. As I see, mar is going to be the next lynch.
What do u think about maras flip?
as towns because of their period of posts between 135 to 174 where there was a short town dynamic dialogue among the trio.
And considering that Maduisha is potentially town too, PoE would suggest
[Marashu, Word]
as both scums.
However, this scenario would be very utopian and far from the game state we are in.
...I find that PoE quite disturbing, actually.
I originally pushed mad to vote mar instead of gw on 810 for the same reasons she pointed out, and voted him myself until factors completely exogenous to me or mar (gw voting mar, wich actually disturbed me quite a bit) made me change my mind (wich, retrospectevely as skitter points out, was a wrong decision). I rly cant follow your train of thoughts from your own perspective on this, to consider that more likely than a scum on those 3.
Btw the possibility of no SE scum is 5/12, wich is quite high actually.
That would only be valid for me if there was any evidence that
Scum!Word
would not be able to deliver his partner via buss. I don't see any difficulties in redirecting votes either.
But, fortunately, there are other indications that point to the improbability of the scenario that I suggested. The kill try, for example, is one of them.
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:50 am
by Datisi
if mara flips green, then the town is about to have one of the most painful 5p lylos. i remember vaguely thinking "one scum in mara/skit" due to reasons i can't even fking remember right now, but in all honesty i would have to reread a good portion of the game to even know where to start.
if it's a red flip, then i guess mena!slot is the most logical partner.
In post 966, Menalque wrote:Do we think that claiming VT is likely from scum!mara here?
this post (right after mara claimed VT) is bothering me. nobody (other than wu, who flipped green so it doesn't really matter) went "ah yes Mara claimed VT, scum would fish for PRs, mara is Town". If Mara flips red here, then I guess it implicates mena!slot even more?
having typed this out however, now there's a point that scum potentially knew we had Masons.
at this point i don't even know. i just want to hear *something* from mena's replacement i guess.
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:50 am
by word321
In post 1320, clidd wrote:The kill try, for example, is one of them.
In post 1320, clidd wrote:The kill try, for example, is one of them.
What do you refer as "kill try"?
Correction: ''kill''.
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:27 am
by Marashu
In post 1301, clidd wrote:If that is the case, I believe there is an SE player in the scum duo. I don't see
Scum!Newbie
selecting their kill out of the potential vocal threats, unless he has an argumentative condition to beat these players later, which means a non-newbie player there.
Could you explain this for me? Because this sounds a lot like you're patting yourself on the back here.
