Mini 821 - A Death in the Family - Game Over


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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:19 am

Post by Artem »

Sho wrote: Mod are the 4 people definitely townies?
To clarify: the partner of each lone goon is NOT one of the disclosed four names. The four names are not guaranteed to be vanilla townies, they are simply of pro-town aligned players. (In other words, the mafia is not able to infer the power roles, or lack thereof, from the provided names.)
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:55 am

Post by Artem »


Santos has been prodded as per rule 22.
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:46 pm

Post by Santos »

I will claim during our mass claim.
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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2009 2:36 pm

Post by Flava Flave »

Ok. Juls, Sho, Francis, Santos, my results from last night.

Juls is up.
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2009 3:04 pm

Post by Juls »

I am having a busy week and will probably not post again until Saturday or Sunday. But, I am a townie. And @Francis, I was saying that I thought Raivann should have claimed his target BEFORE we went to night.
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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:12 am

Post by Santos »

I can wait til Saturday or Sunday.
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:17 am

Post by Juls »

Sorry...maybe I wasn't clear.
claim: townie
. As in Vanilla, Simple, Powerless....I will still post Saturday or Sunday but the claims can go on until then I think.
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 12:17 pm

Post by Raivann »

Sho, Whats the percentage that the scum found each other last night?
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:55 pm

Post by Flava Flave »

Sho, claim.
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 12:10 pm

Post by Sho Minamimoto »

Raivann wrote:Sho, Whats the percentage that the scum found each other last night?
Hm... Let's see. I can safely assume that the scum would believe the claims yesterday. Two dead townies. The odds that all four of those are on both of their lists are about .9995835%. Given that as of last night, and today, there were 6 players, that means that for each list, they need...hm... 6-2-1=2 people on they're list who are not the two power roles. Also, they would have checked someone on their list is 0. Therefore, they only need 1 power role not on they're list to claim. The odds any person is on that list is 1/(9-2)=14.2857143%. So, the odds scum found each other last night:
IF there is at least one claimed power role not on their list:
99.0004165%
the odds of this being true is:
85.7152857%

So the odds the scum have found each other is exactly:
84.85848985%

With such an obscenely high number, I think we should assume scum have found each other. Even if they have not found each other, there is a 100% chance that today they know who the other is. The good and the bad:
If they have not found each other, 1/3rd chance of kill if we mislynch assuming doc doesn't visit them.
Since the odds say they have found each other though, it is best to lynch since the threat is probably non-existant (that we give them the night kill ability by destroying one on the team.)

My claim: I am a townie. Francis, you're up.
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:08 pm

Post by Francis »

Townie.
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:15 pm

Post by Juls »

Sho Minamimoto wrote:
Raivann wrote:Sho, Whats the percentage that the scum found each other last night?
Hm... Let's see. I can safely assume that the scum would believe the claims yesterday. Two dead townies. The odds that all four of those are on both of their lists are about .9995835%. Given that as of last night, and today, there were 6 players, that means that for each list, they need...hm... 6-2-1=2 people on they're list who are not the two power roles. Also, they would have checked someone on their list is 0. Therefore, they only need 1 power role not on they're list to claim. The odds any person is on that list is 1/(9-2)=14.2857143%. So, the odds scum found each other last night:
IF there is at least one claimed power role not on their list:
99.0004165%
the odds of this being true is:
85.7152857%

So the odds the scum have found each other is exactly:
84.85848985%

With such an obscenely high number, I think we should assume scum have found each other. Even if they have not found each other, there is a 100% chance that today they know who the other is. The good and the bad:
If they have not found each other, 1/3rd chance of kill if we mislynch assuming doc doesn't visit them.
Since the odds say they have found each other though, it is best to lynch since the threat is probably non-existant (that we give them the night kill ability by destroying one on the team.)

My claim: I am a townie. Francis, you're up.
I don't know if these percentages are meant to be serious but I have a hard time having faith in someone who thinks 6-2-1=2.

Looks like we only need Santos to claim now...
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 1:08 am

Post by Santos »

Townie
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 5:44 am

Post by Raivann »

hmmm now what?
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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 3:19 pm

Post by Francis »

Flava tells us who he targeted.
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:53 am

Post by Artem »

Day 3, Votecount 1


No lynch will occur at deadline


Not voting (6): Juls, Flava Flave, Sho Minamimoto, Francis, Raivann, Santos


With 6 present, it takes 4 to force somebody to sign the warrant.

Deadline is Saturday, August 26th, 5:00pm EST.
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:03 am

Post by Flava Flave »

Well. No one targeted Juls and then told us the truth. That means Juls was targeted by scum who hadn't found each other yet. Scum couldn't have found each other Night 1. The chances that they didn't find each other last night are remotely low. The only way Juls is town is if one of the scum thought she was scum. The only options scum had last night were Sho, Juls, and Francis unless they didn't believe a claim. Hmm. What does everyone think about this?

FTR, if I wasn't clear, I targeted Juls.
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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 9:53 am

Post by Sho Minamimoto »

Flava Flave wrote:Well. No one targeted Juls and then told us the truth. That means Juls was targeted by scum who hadn't found each other yet. Scum couldn't have found each other Night 1. The chances that they didn't find each other last night are remotely low. The only way Juls is town is if one of the scum thought she was scum. The only options scum had last night were Sho, Juls, and Francis unless they didn't believe a claim. Hmm. What does everyone think about this?

FTR, if I wasn't clear, I targeted Juls.
I think it fits perfectly into my theory.

@Juls: 6-2-1=2
You are correct. Starting number was supposed to be five, since one wouldn't include his or herself. (I think this is my error.)

Sorry for the typo/mis-thought, but I can guarantee the accuracy of my figures.

@Flave: Do you think scum failed to find each other?
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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:41 pm

Post by Juls »

Flava Flave wrote:Well. No one targeted Juls and then told us the truth. That means Juls was targeted by scum who hadn't found each other yet. Scum couldn't have found each other Night 1. The chances that they didn't find each other last night are remotely low. The only way Juls is town is if one of the scum thought she was scum. The only options scum had last night were Sho, Juls, and Francis unless they didn't believe a claim. Hmm. What does everyone think about this?

FTR, if I wasn't clear, I targeted Juls.
Scum could also be trying to get two night kills in one night. (i.e. Not finding each other on purpose. If successful it would end the game). This would require silent cooperation so I think we should look through Sho's, Francis's, and for thoroughness sake, please feel free to look through my posts to see if there are any bread crumbs that could be interpreted as "don't find me".

I can't really defend against someone targeting me when I have no way of knowing scum's motivation. By your own theory they had a 50/50 chance to hit scum and still could have picked wrong. It really sucks because we are in LYLO and if you mislynch me the game is probably over.
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:05 pm

Post by Sho Minamimoto »

Juls wrote:
Flava Flave wrote:Well. No one targeted Juls and then told us the truth. That means Juls was targeted by scum who hadn't found each other yet. Scum couldn't have found each other Night 1. The chances that they didn't find each other last night are remotely low. The only way Juls is town is if one of the scum thought she was scum. The only options scum had last night were Sho, Juls, and Francis unless they didn't believe a claim. Hmm. What does everyone think about this?

FTR, if I wasn't clear, I targeted Juls.
Scum could also be trying to get two night kills in one night. (i.e. Not finding each other on purpose. If successful it would end the game). This would require silent cooperation so I think we should look through Sho's, Francis's, and for thoroughness sake, please feel free to look through my posts to see if there are any bread crumbs that could be interpreted as "don't find me".

I can't really defend against someone targeting me when I have no way of knowing scum's motivation. By your own theory they had a 50/50 chance to hit scum and still could have picked wrong. It really sucks because we are in LYLO and if you mislynch me the game is probably over.
Meh... my theory makes it about a 85% chance that whoever the long goon targeted last night is the other lone goon. Hm...

It doesn't account for human error and actually makes the assumption that both goons target each other. I am merely reinforcing my theory with the results since Flava is confirmed by Raivann and the claims seem real. I find very little, roughly 1%, reason to suspect either.

I am going to go ahead and put faith behind my reasoning:
Vote Juls
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:51 pm

Post by Santos »

Vote: Francis
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:52 pm

Post by Santos »

Juls, would you advocate lynching Francis?
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:38 pm

Post by Francis »

Sho and Juls as scum makes sense.
Both, but Juls especially, are being far too passive given how spelled out the game should be to the three of us. Either Raivann is lying scum, or the other two he hasn't targeted
are
the Goons
. There is no grey area here, yet both are still talking about the
possibility
that I am scum with the other while appearing to have little to no doubt about Raivann's claim.

This much makes sense to me, so I would be comfortable lynching either Sho or Juls.

Santos, Raivann and Flava should consider whether they want to lynch or no lynch today.

There are benefits to no lynching. Scum have limited options for the nightkill:
- Raivann - First choice since he's a protective role. But killing him will confirm Flava and Santos as innocent beyond doubt.
- Flava/Santos - Scum have a 50% chance of failing to kill because they are Raivann's obvious and only good protection choices for tonight and onward (definitely won't result in his death).

If I were one of Santos, Raivann and Flava, I'd probably be voting no lynch for peace of mind. Not sure that lynching scum has any real benefit over no lynching today.

Lynch -> possible mislynch, town loses.
No lynch ->possibly start next day with more info. Still lylo, but nothing lost, but better odds of lynching scum, etc.
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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:53 pm

Post by Sho Minamimoto »

Francis wrote:Sho and Juls as scum makes sense.
Both, but Juls especially, are being far too passive given how spelled out the game should be to the three of us. Either Raivann is lying scum, or the other two he hasn't targeted
are
the Goons
. There is no grey area here, yet both are still talking about the
possibility
that I am scum with the other while appearing to have little to no doubt about Raivann's claim.

This much makes sense to me, so I would be comfortable lynching either Sho or Juls.

Santos, Raivann and Flava should consider whether they want to lynch or no lynch today.

There are benefits to no lynching. Scum have limited options for the nightkill:
- Raivann - First choice since he's a protective role. But killing him will confirm Flava and Santos as innocent beyond doubt.
- Flava/Santos - Scum have a 50% chance of failing to kill because they are Raivann's obvious and only good protection choices for tonight and onward (definitely won't result in his death).

If I were one of Santos, Raivann and Flava, I'd probably be voting no lynch for peace of mind. Not sure that lynching scum has any real benefit over no lynching today.

Lynch -> possible mislynch, town loses.
No lynch ->possibly start next day with more info. Still lylo, but nothing lost, but better odds of lynching scum, etc.
Passive? I am at least voting one of the obvious scum. For Mr. Agres

In fact, your above post looks like scum trying to ally him/herself with the town.

HoS: Francis.
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One mafia win and one mafia loss... CRUNCH! I'll add it to the heap!
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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:54 pm

Post by Sho Minamimoto »

Ebwop:
For Mr. Agressive, you sure are a lot of talk and a lot of lacking action.
This is my latest masterpiece. I call it: "Myself!"

One mafia win and one mafia loss... CRUNCH! I'll add it to the heap!
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