Page 68 of 89
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:24 pm
by Nero Cain
i feel like not flipping town and just going straight for scum is a much better strat.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:28 pm
by redtea
In post 1673, Nero Cain wrote: In post 1667, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: In post 1648, Nero Cain wrote:I didn't really remember cyrus claiming that but if that's what you guys think why in the world am I the one getting pushed?
You getting pushed is unrelated to Cyrus claiming PGO. You say it like because Cyrus is the one that claimed PGO you shouldn't be getting pushed. They're not related at all
the point is that you guys are pushing Thor as a Cyrus buddy for claiming Cyrus' role but I'm being pushed instead of him and I'm like "what in the world?" Like its pretty obvious this is a scum push b/c town doesn't think like that.
okay. okay it's like. it's like this.
that's one (1) theory.
and we also have other theories.
that we're pursuing over that one.
according to my theory, i am limming within the pool of {nero, kyouko, rmh} today. You'll notice that that theory does not include thor. I almost broadened the pool to include him, but decided that I shouldn't, as it is still likely there is one within that pool of 3, whether or not thor is scum.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:29 pm
by redtea
In post 1674, Nero Cain wrote:
no offense red but I think you have a kinda hard to understand playstlye. I don't really get your case on me and SSBM doesn't either, I guess. Though I understand why you are scum reading her more than me.
i mean. maybe? my poe was formed based on meta for reasons explained. Like. That's it.
also I am not sr'ing her more than you and i'm not sure where you got that
especially since i am
you know
voting you
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:33 pm
by Nero Cain
1673 was directed at SSBM and Mar WHO are pushing that. SSBM might not be though. She said she wanted to policy lim there which is iffy language I think and I asked for clarification a few posts ago but was ignored.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:33 pm
by redtea
where are dragon and dwlee when you need them
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:35 pm
by Nero Cain
but yeah, pushing Thor as a Cyrus buddy and then voting not Thor seems pretty disingenuous to me.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:36 pm
by redtea
In post 1678, Nero Cain wrote:1673 was directed at SSBM and Mar WHO are pushing that. SSBM might not be though. She said she wanted to policy lim there which is iffy language I think and I asked for clarification a few posts ago but was ignored.
ooooo okay.
well. I think kyouko is sr'ing you for the way you're sr'ing her.
why marashu thinks you're thor's partner is a good question though.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:36 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
I responded to these already: see 1585.
In post 1585, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: In post 1569, redtea wrote:wait how is that order exactly the same except for gamma
...is this how cyrus picks his scumreads????? and I crazy, am I doing something wrong?
Just drawing the wrong conclusion - if you put the reads in order it makes sense that the earliest reads will be placed on players that have made fewer posts, because they happened earlier in the game
I'm not as active on the weekends - if those 3 posts you directed me to are the entire reason you're SRing me, I have 2 questions, if not, I'd like to know any other reasoning you have.
1. Have you seen my 1585? I don't think it got a response from you but I assumed you would have seen it. I get what you're trying to do if you're town, but I think it's wrong to.draw the conclusions you did because the data is going to look that way every time. The earlier someone was scumread by someone else, the fewer posts that first person will have before the second person SRs him/her/them.
2. Now that you've seen it, do you have a counterargument? I feel like your POE is drawn from a questionable foundation and I know I'm town and am fairly certain RMH is as well. I'm glad you have Nero within your POE and are voting him right now because I think he's scum, but I don't like how you got there, and I dont like that I'm there with no.other explanation (aside from the ??? conclusion drawn from the theory about Cyrus's playstyle, which imo is debunked easily by 1585) after how you treated me D1, and I dont like that RMH is there either.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:38 pm
by Nero Cain
In post 1677, redtea wrote:also I am not sr'ing her more than you and i'm not sure where you got that
especially since i am
you know
voting you
ppl usually vote their highest scumread so maybe that's where I got it? How many of my games have you read to meta scumread me?
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:41 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 1673, Nero Cain wrote: In post 1667, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: In post 1648, Nero Cain wrote:I didn't really remember cyrus claiming that but if that's what you guys think why in the world am I the one getting pushed?
You getting pushed is unrelated to Cyrus claiming PGO. You say it like because Cyrus is the one that claimed PGO you shouldn't be getting pushed. They're not related at all
the point is that you guys are pushing Thor as a Cyrus buddy for claiming Cyrus' role but I'm being pushed instead of him and I'm like "what in the world?" Like its pretty obvious this is a scum push b/c town doesn't think like that.
It's possible he is a Cyrus buddy, but that's not the end of discussion and thoughts for the day. You're acting like trying to.solve is scummy. You've been mudslinging since D1 and it's a very stark contrast to how you played in large 233 where you were town, and that's all I have to go off with you. I've played games with you years ago before I took a long break from mafia but I don't remember details about those games
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:41 pm
by redtea
In post 1680, Nero Cain wrote:but yeah, pushing Thor as a Cyrus buddy and then voting not Thor seems pretty disingenuous to me.
Idk, sometimes if i'm convinced someone is scum, and is widely considered so by town, i don't mind putting their slot on the backburner and trying to find someone else to lim who is both scummy and seems like their flip would be more informative.
but i don't know all the details of what kyouko thinks about limming thor against limming others atp
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:42 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
And I'm not ignoring anyone's posts, I don't play as much on the weekends
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:44 pm
by Nero Cain
Why did you want to policy Thor? Why are you voting not Thor?
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:46 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 1674, Nero Cain wrote:
no offense red but I think you have a kinda hard to understand playstlye. I don't really get your case on me and SSBM doesn't either, I guess. Though I understand why you are scum reading her more than me.
I understand where it came from and I thought they had seen my 1585 and since they didnt dispute it I assumed they saw my post and realized "oh yeah, that does make sense. I need to.go back to the drawing board." Otherwise I would expect some kind of response. So I was surprised to see they were still SRing me some 100 posts later, when it seems to now be based on something I did toDay. I feel like my play toDay has been the same as yesterDay, so I'm suspicious of the read
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:49 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
I would policy thor so we dont have to wonder if hes really PGO or if hes a Cyrus partner. I'm not voting him because I scumread you, and Thor is just painful to deal with near ELO. He, as PGO, could only ever hurt town at this point. If he's really PGO, scum know he is and arent going to shoot him. Some town with weaker PRs like the even night tracker James rolled might try to check him at some point thinking their role may be best used in that way.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:50 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
And if he's PGO we could end up losing any townies that try to check him
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:58 pm
by Nero Cain
but you were town reading Thor when he was a claimed pgo and then changed your tune when Mar started pushing his "theory" so it seems like no more than opportunism to me.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:58 pm
by Nero Cain
What is your scumread on me based on?
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:59 pm
by Dwlee99
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 1:03 pm
by Nero Cain
oh booo. no one is going to target him. this post is very
LAMIST
.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 1:07 pm
by redtea
oooookay. I see where the confusion is.
So what it is is that it was redundant to include all three scales. I only needed the first and the either of the subsequent ones. The data is still *relevant*.
Alright here's an edit.
redtea wrote:some relevant info:
Here's the amount of direct interactions cyrus has had with each player/slot.
Mega/Gamma is kept separate for obvious reasons (highlighted blue to stand out).
Scale 1
Most
:
T3
- 29
: Dwlee99 - 27
:
JamestheNames
- 24
: ssbm_kyouko - 14
: Marashu - 14
: Thor - 11
: SirCakez - 10
: Dragon - 10
:
redtea
- 7
:
Nero Cain
- 6
:
Robert
- 4
Least
Mega/Gamma - 5
Here's Cyrus's scumreads sorted by number of posts between their first and being scum read/leaned by cyrus
Scale 2
:
ssbm_kyouko
- 20
:
nero cain
- 27
:
rmh
- 146
: gamma - 225
: thor - 293 (if
not
counting his very first post)
: thor - 452 (if counting his very first post)
: dwlee - 590
: me (redtea) - 674
: meg - 1081
: dragon - 1128
If I'm certain, based on Cyrus's meta, that within his first three stated scumreads, one of them will be his partner, that means that based on that second scale, at least one of {ssbm_kyouko, nero cain, rmh, as highlighted} is his partner.
The first scale provides supporting evidence and helps to sort that pool. The three fewest interactions he has are with me, cain, and rmh. I know I'm town, so I don't include myself. Next after myself would be dragon, but Cyrus sr'd him, and did so very late. Cyrus doesn't seem to sr his partners late, he either does it early or not at all (the latter of which is rarer). So I exclude Dragon. After that the list gets messy, so I more or less disregard it.
Kyouko, while technically on the higher end of interactions, is still separated from the third most- james- by 10 interactions, putting her at the higher end of an average amount of interactions with him.
So, since she didn't have a relatively extreme amount of interactions with him, I'm still willing to include her, since I give more weight to when the sr is first given than the number of interactions. Since her place in the pool isn't as set-in-stone as nero and rmh however, I'd rather start with one of those two. Before doing this meta, I thought maybe RMH could've been being honest about being double vig. After meta-ing, I have more doubts, but I could still believe it. So, I vote Nero, who I don't have any qualms about voting.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 1:09 pm
by redtea
who do you feel like voting today. What're your reads. We're going in circles and im dying
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 1:10 pm
by Dwlee99
In post 1695, redtea wrote:If I'm certain, based on Cyrus's meta, that within his first three stated scumreads, one of them will be his partner,
Have played with Cyrus, p sure this is wrong
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 1:11 pm
by Dwlee99
In post 1696, redtea wrote:
who do you feel like voting today. What're your reads. We're going in circles and im dying
I'm not really sure. There's a lot of words. Probably don't want to kill Kyo though
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 1:26 pm
by Gamma Emerald
In post 1697, Dwlee99 wrote: In post 1695, redtea wrote:If I'm certain, based on Cyrus's meta, that within his first three stated scumreads, one of them will be his partner,
Have played with Cyrus, p sure this is wrong
it's also a goofy assumption