Mini 821 - A Death in the Family - Game Over


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Post Post #175 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:05 pm

Post by Francis »

I'm not so dull that I don't realise that the people who really need to make a decision today are Raivann, Flava and Santos. Things are pretty clear to me, as they should be to you and Juls if you were town.

Your hand of suspicion is meaningless and senseless. How can I possibly be anything other than scum to you right now?
Sho wrote:In fact, your above post looks like scum trying to ally him/herself with the town.
What?
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Post Post #176 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 7:25 am

Post by Raivann »

I think we should lynch today, but we should also be careful not to put 2 votes on anyone until we have a consensus
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Post Post #177 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 10:31 am

Post by Sho Minamimoto »

Francis wrote:I'm not so dull that I don't realise that the people who really need to make a decision today are Raivann, Flava and Santos. Things are pretty clear to me, as they should be to you and Juls if you were town.

Your hand of suspicion is meaningless and senseless. How can I possibly be anything other than scum to you right now?
Sho wrote:In fact, your above post looks like scum trying to ally him/herself with the town.
What?
You're posting indicates your suspicions of who, to you should be the obvious scum, but your lack of vote looks like someone trying to appeal to the power roles, and thus confirmed town's, by asking for approval before voting anyone.
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Post Post #178 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 10:43 am

Post by Santos »

Juls, would you support a Francis lynch today?
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Post Post #179 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:37 am

Post by Juls »

@Santos: I realize there are two people (in my eyes) that are likely scum. Sho and Francis. Would I support a Francis lynch today? He is one of my two candidates. I need to do the read I suggested yesterday (hopefully will get that done tonight). I was not really believing Raivann's claim until we all claimed and since only two power roles have claimed I figure they are telling the truth, otherwise town is significantly underpowered. So right now I would be willing to lynch Sho or Francis because they are likely the only two scum left. There are things in recent posts from both of them that bother me.

Francis: Suggesting a no lynch is scummy. We have six players left. If we no lynch then best case scenario says we start the day with 5 (2 scum, 3 town). No lynching would likely result in a Raivann or Flava death. Also, it stymies Raivann's ability. He is taking a major chance if he tries to confirm one more person because if he dies and scum kill someone else then it is game over. Major scumpoints from this one!

Sho: Saying that Francis is trying to appear like he is buddying townies seems like a weak attempt to bus Francis. He gives a HoS to Francis but his vote is on me based on his "theories" and "statistics". What exactly is your case on me Sho?

I am going to try to do a reread tonight.
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Post Post #180 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 1:25 pm

Post by Flava Flave »

I don't have much time and will respond fully later, but we are lynching today. If we don't, a known town aligned player (me, Santos, Raiv) will die and Raiv could die if he targets scum. We won't be any closer to finding scum.

Vote Juls


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Post Post #181 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 2:22 pm

Post by Raivann »

So assuming Juls flips scum...

I protect Sho.
Flava watches Francis.

Would that work ?
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Post Post #182 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 3:05 pm

Post by Raivann »

Flava when you watch someone can you tell if they were targeted and if they target someone else?
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Post Post #183 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 5:14 pm

Post by Artem »

Day 3, Votecount 2


Juls (2): Sho Minamamoto, Flava Flave

Francis (1): Santos


Not voting (3): Juls, Francis, Raivann


With 6 present, it takes 4 to force somebody to sign the warrant.

Deadline is Saturday, August 26th, 5:00pm EST.
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Post Post #184 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:40 pm

Post by Francis »

Flava, I don't think Raivann should target anyone other than his confirmed innocents from now on anyway.
Juls wrote:Francis: Suggesting a no lynch is scummy. We have six players left. If we no lynch then best case scenario says we start the day with 5 (2 scum, 3 town). No lynching would likely result in a Raivann or Flava death. Also, it stymies Raivann's ability. He is taking a major chance if he tries to confirm one more person because if he dies and scum kill someone else then it is game over. Major scumpoints from this one!
No.

6 alive means a 33% chance of lynching scum.
5 alive means a 40% chance of lynching scum.
Therefore, 5 alive is better. This is ignoring the fact that the same three possible scum would probably be alive anyway. I think our powerroles have limited and even negligible utility at this point too. (See below.)

I thought I made it clear that if we no lynched, Raivann should only protect Santos or Flava. So no, I wasn't stymieing Raivann's ability at all.

And then there's the fact that killing Raivann would confirm Santos and Flava and that trying to get a successful kill on either of those two would only be 50% likely. Please don't make me repeat myself again. It clutters the thread. :p


Raivann, I've tried thinking it through and I don't think you're going to be able to give us another useful investigation. The only way I can think of you being able to confirm anyone is by not dying. Even if you did die, the only way to confirm that it wasn't by nightkill is to have Flava watching you. BUT, the obvious move for scum who knows you're targeting them is to kill you anyway so Flava sees you being targeted, which negates the whole exercise.

I think you're better off protecting Santos or Flava on the off chance Sho/Juls decides to kill one of them instead.

What do you think? Does what I'm saying make sense to you? I don't want to go to night until everyone's agreed on the best course of action.
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Post Post #185 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:44 pm

Post by Francis »

We need to work the game mechanics out - if there's a way for our power roles to win us the game without fail, I'm not seeing it.
Raivann targeting anyone other than Flava or Santos is unlikely to give the town any useful info unless scum don't kill him tonight.

I think this is just going to come down to deciding which of Sho, Juls or I is most likely town.
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Post Post #186 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:53 pm

Post by Santos »

Francis, your plan to no lynch is speculative. So what's the scenario for you lynching someone today
if
you were going to advocate a lynch on a scummy player?

What should our people with power roles do if we lynch a townie?
What should they do if we hit scum?

Juls and Sho, same questions^ please.
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Post Post #187 (ISO) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 10:48 pm

Post by Francis »

Speculative? I think it's consistent with everything we know about the setup. Assuming all town players have claimed truthfully, my suggestions take into account what I'd say is the logical play of all the roles left in the game. I think we're at a point in the game where we can be very calculating about increasing the odds of a town victory. E.g., Raivann targeting anyone other than you or Flava is not worth the risk - 2/3 chance of dying - when he could
know
that he won't die by targeting you two instead.
Santos wrote:So what's the scenario for you lynching someone today
if
you were going to advocate a lynch on a scummy player?
Juls seems the lynch with the most weight behind it. I've explained that the scumteam of Juls and Sho is obvious to me now.
Santos wrote:What should our people with power roles do if we lynch a townie?
If we lynch a townie I can't imagine how we won't lose the game. Scum will kill Raivann and Day 4 will start with 2 scum and 2 town. We'll be endgamed.
Santos wrote:What should they do if we hit scum?
Same as I've said. Raivann should protect you or Flava on the chance scum decide to go for one of you at night. I don't think Flava's role has much utility anymore besides learning whether or not Raivann's death was the result of a nightkill.
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Post Post #188 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 6:26 am

Post by Santos »

Sho would like to see Juls hang.
Francis would like to see Juls hang.

Waiting on Juls' response to my question. She stated that her choices of 'the two candidates' require a read on both of them...or thats the impression that I got.

Juls, who would you want lynched today?


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Francis wrote: If we lynch a townie I can't imagine how we won't lose the game. Scum will kill Raivann and Day 4 will start with 2 scum and 2 town. We'll be endgamed.
So we lose even if scum aren't able to find each other?
Same as I've said. Raivann should protect you or Flava on the chance scum decide to go for one of you at night. I don't think Flava's role has much utility anymore besides learning whether or not Raivann's death was the result of a nightkill.
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Post Post #189 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:32 am

Post by Sho Minamimoto »

The above is all quite obvious Francis, but what you fail to see is that you increase the scums ability to quick hammer. It is 100% obvious that Raivann is the only potential night kill tonight because if his attempts to play hero, whil potentially losing the game for town, is something that scum would worry about. So, the advantage to scum is to kill someone, and Raivann is the most dangerous to their position.

Such speculation, while obvious, is stupid and pointless. If we plan to win, we must wittle down the three players who could actually be scum and not give scum a chance to eliminate an all-but-100%-confirmed player.
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Post Post #190 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 12:07 pm

Post by Flava Flave »

Raivann wrote:Flava when you watch someone can you tell if they were targeted and if they target someone else?
I see if they were targeted.

Ok, I see what Francis is saying about Raiv targeting a confirmed, but I still disagree with no lynching.
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Post Post #191 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 12:25 pm

Post by Juls »

Francis wrote:I thought I made it clear that if we no lynched, Raivann should only protect Santos or Flava. So no, I wasn't stymieing Raivann's ability at all.
Where did you make this clear? I read back and I don't see it anywhere.
Santos wrote:What should our people with power roles do if we lynch a townie?
What should they do if we hit scum?
If we lynch a townie then Raivann needs to protect someone without telling us who because the only chance of us winning would be for Raivann to block the night kill. If we lynch a scum then we have a little breathing room. Flava should try to confirm another towns person (not sure how though at this point) and Raivann can either sacrifice himself to confirm a scum or protect someone without telling us who to try to block the scum kill.
Santos wrote:Juls, who would you want lynched today?
I am strongly in favor of either Sho or Francis. There are two scum and I think those two are them.

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1 2-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

1 = Sho, 2 = Francis
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Post Post #192 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 12:25 pm

Post by Juls »

Vote: Sho
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Post Post #193 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 1:05 pm

Post by Francis »

Santos wrote:Francis would like to see Juls hang.

...

So we lose even if scum aren't able to find each other?
I would just as happily lynch Sho. (I said this in 172.)

I'm pretty sure Sho found Juls last night, so a kill tonight is garaunteed.

Juls:
me wrote:- Flava/Santos - Scum have a 50% chance of failing to kill because they are Raivann's obvious and only good protection choices for tonight and onward (definitely won't result in his death).
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Post Post #194 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 1:49 pm

Post by Raivann »

How bout I protect Sho and Flava watches me?
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Post Post #195 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 5:13 pm

Post by Francis »

Wtf. Have you even read anything we've posted in the last two pages?
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Post Post #196 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 10:39 pm

Post by Santos »

Interesting.

Juls votes Sho.
Sho votes Juls.

Balls in your court, Francis.


I believe we should make him choose as most of us believe for certain that everyone else is pro town. I wouldn't want to make the stupid mistake of voting Juls and then seeing Francis drop the hammer and the thread being closed. ITs just too easy that way.

Francis, we require a vote to who you will
really
be voting for, please.

Also note, guys/gals, that we need to think this one through. Juls went random instead of trying to study which of the two she finds more scummy. I think she's protecting her scum partner which makes us have to wonder: is she bussing, or is she voting against someone who is really town?

1) Voting Sho-town would require an enormous shift of votes, but this would prove Juls is scum and Francis is scum.
2) Voting Sho-scum is an attempt to get Francis to also vote for Sho.
3) Is Francis town or scum?

^this is scummy, what she did. Juls, I thought you were going to read through again? You, as a 'pro town player', are seriously letting the rest of the people wonder why you haven't made a decision yourself as opposed to the roll of the dice?

I call BS. I do not want to put you at L-1 yet because I want to know where Francis will put his vote and then I can try and present a case.
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Post Post #197 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 11:01 pm

Post by Francis »

Eh. I don't understand why our confirmed players don't want to no lynch, but I guess there isn't a huge difference anyway.

Vote: Juls



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, there's no point in targeting Sho or me. Whichever of us is scum will just kill you anyway. PLEASE just protect Santos or Flava.
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Post Post #198 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 11:06 pm

Post by Santos »

Juls is L-1 from death.


Before any more votes go on, what do people think?

I am going to look back and see if there are any connections or distancing between the three of them.
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Post Post #199 (ISO) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 11:13 pm

Post by Francis »

I think Juls is scum with Sho. :p

My strongest case against Sho and Juls is what I posted as soon as the massclaim ended. The game should have been crystal clear to them since neither seemed to have much doubt about Raivann's claim at all (he confirmed Santos and Flava, leaving only two players as possible scum in the eyes of an unconfirmed town player), but they still posted like they were assessing the viability of a Francis-Sho/Juls team. I would personally see that as a dead give away.
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