Mini 1496: The Cash Cabd (Game Over)

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Wait til after mc to lynch. But beast can go first and popcorn, I guess.

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The end of that day made me think RT and SoS quickhammered their buddy.

interesting. unless you think both of us are scum (making this game 9:4 lol), you must think at least one of us legitimately thought that any further discussion D3 was pointless.

I cannot see why that doc heal would happen.

i have a couple theories about why i may have been targeted, outside of being super obvtown.

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i'm kind of interested in seeing what titus's logic for either sos or i being scum is, actually.

because if sos is scum and they didn't kill nacho (who left no obvious clues as far as i can tell that sos knew he was a doctor) then they're either playing some extremely gambity scum game or they're town. and unless you think i'm scum doing some sort of no kill gambit for whatever reason, it's extremely likely at this point that i'm not scum.

sad thing is i think cephy was right about titus being the one supplying AK with the town drugs.

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well, cephy thought it was more likely that titus is scum, i think he's the town drug supplier and AK is a junky.

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hm. maybe it's not town drugs. maybe cephy was right.

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no, i've still yet to claim. i was hoping the remaining scum would be creative with their claim, but they're most likely hiding amongst the VT claims.

i was considering fake-claiming here, but seeing as i expect the next night kills to be nacho followed by me, i don't really see the point. also, if we cannot figure out the last scum without the help of PRs, then sadface.

i'm an odd-night cop, first night was natirasha, last night was beast (inno).

i'm unsure whether a godfather makes any sense here, but i'm thinking beast isn't the play today.

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that would be rather odd. it would require one scum faction missing a kill N1, both scum factions missing their kill N2, and the SK missing his kill N3.

it's more likely we have 1 scum faction here.

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SK doesn't make a whole lot of sense either unless it's a bulletproof godfather SK. there are too many counters to it, otherwise (cop, hider, crosskills). also goon+1-shot strongman is underpowered vs town power + possible crosskills

at least i think. i'm not all that good with balance, though.

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so i'm thinking it's:

miller doctor + ON-cop + EN-compulsive-hider + 1shot-compulsive-neighbouriser

vs

1-shot strongman + goon + ???

rolecop was a possibility i considered, which would make sense if they rolecopped me early on and tried to kill me N2/N3. or it's possible they figured me out because of how i was almost blatantly crumbing it multiple times over the last couple days.
roleblocker i'm thinking is unlikely unless the roleblocker is really, really bad.
encryptor is possible if there was a shred of truth to nati's final post. but i'm thinking that was mostly wifom, so i'm ignoring it for now.
and godfather is the obvious other possibility as a partial counter to the investigative power town has.

N1 kill was too weird to be scumkill imo.

i dunno. i think it was partially PR hunting and partially due to dessew's suspicions (maybe). remember at the start of D2 nati talking about how NKA suggested brian scum? lololol

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Mario needs to post or replace out, really.

Dessew's main scumspect was Brian Skies. The nk fits in with my perception of Brian Skies, but as usual with NKA, >WIFOM. Move Skies down a tier in my reads for now.

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i'm also inclined to believe that beast's willingness to die today is a minor town tell at least, since he realised his slot is probably screwed anyway. i'm thinking the chance that was a gambit is unlikely.

so today i'm going to be focusing on rereading {titus, ns, prohawk} mostly. i'm thinking nacho and gif are very likely town here, and i'm still thinking AK doesn't make a lot of sense as scum (especially with nati, after the way the start of D2 played out, didn't really look like scum talking to each other).

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also i spent the entirety of D2 attempting to create links to nati, which i was only partially analysing at the time, so i need to go back and read that again

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ok. i'll look at it. in the mean time, you should look at how AK interacted with nati, especially at the start of D2, and tell me how likely you think that is to come from scum buddies (especially if you think encryptor is a very real possibility).

the way they talked to each other, especially AK getting all antsy about nati not helping them lynch NS, didn't really look like scum-scum interactions to me.

plus the batshit crazy reads they've had all game didn't strike me as being particularly scum-motivated.

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which posts do you think could have been better suited for day-chat instead of an in-thread conversation?

i'll go back over it when i have the energy to, which is not right now.

AK's reads have been spot on so far.

^

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i'm going to assume titus unintentionally left out the fact that brian and natirasha were among AK's stronger town reads, and cephy was one of AK's strongest scum reads.

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to quote just a few of the posts that you apparently missed where AK made their reads on them blatantly obvious...

Spoiler:

What are you thinking about Nati?

(I know)

i do think he is town.

RT - brought up some good points, about him saying that he had HP as town... but yet, still put him in the 'need to hear from pile' as opposed to his town pile.. way back when.

but i think Nat's posts come across as genuine.. and like i said, his 875 kinda sounds like defeated town.. the whole "so be it"

it is definitely helping that he's got NS as scum. because i very much think NS is scum. if i'm wrong on that... i will have to re-adjust. but another reason i have Titus as town, is his take on NS as obvscum, as well... that combined with the fact of fuz's aTe.

what are your thoughts on Nat? you've been kinda back and forth/unsure?

i was saying to Prohawk, in response to his question on why Brian is town to me. is that i have liked all of Brian's posts. i still think Brian is town. and i'm partially sus of PH for pushing a wagon/lynch vote on him.

(NS, prohawk, cephir and possibly SOS) is my pile. everyone else is town... i think

i guess my issue is, is that i have all of Nat, Brian, and Titus, as town. as well as Rebel and RT. This is why i'm getting my back up with you.. you seem just too uncertain on all of those players.

tl;dr the only flip they've

actually

been right about is DB (and perhaps dessew, since they called him town at one point, except their last post was saying dessew isn't a town read).

so when you say that you like AK because their reads have been spot on, i chuckled a little.

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reading stuff tonight

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why does it take the threat of lynch for you to give your current reads, ns? :/ not to mention no one even listens to a dead player's reads, lolol

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Vote: notscience

Prohawk, I don't think they landed on the wagon either. Why are you voting AK?

General absence last game day and this game day is troubling to me topped off with trying to get me lynched on a false premise. NS isn't a terrible lynch and would be my second choice.

Pro hawk, I pretty much dropped my suspicion esp after the Brian lynch.

are you guys still suspicious of NS or...?

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@Prohawk,

if you're ISOing nati+AK, everything from about post #663 onwards at the start of D2 is what i think looks unlikely as scum-scum interaction. the way AK talks to Nati about NS, and their other reads, didn't really look like scum talking to a buddy.

apart from the nati stuff, i'm also thinking the way in which they've been attacking players this game (particularly their confidence in some cases, and lack of confidence in others) doesn't really make me think scum pushing an agenda.

i haven't really looked at brian+AK interactions, but that's low on my priority list today.

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i'm totally fine with the NS wagon actually.

i'm pretty tired atm so i'm sort of skimming ISOs now, but i'm sort of PoEing ns as remaining scum here.

i'm busy for the next liiiiiiike 18 hours and then i'm gonna be tired as fuck but i'll try to get around to giving some ISOs a proper read after that, or when i'm taking breaks. whatever.

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Well Nati was scum but still he claimed hider and cleared titus.
Based on the situation that time, I don't think he was covering his scumbuddy

i thought about this a little over the night phase and figured it was more null than anything. i'm thinking titus could be town for other reasons, though.

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hmm. if it isn't ns (and atm i'm thinking all signs point to ns), then i don't really know who it is.

i'm going to pretend i'm still considering other options today while i wait for ns to post something.

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ffery pegged rt as a power role, told me to protect him, and then no killed?
that seems a wee bit unlikely.

jesus christ, i was thinking this too, but now you've made me think about it again and i'm paranoid of it. that would actually be a brilliant play.

i mean... i think it's more likely gif is town, but that would actually be a really good player if they had me pegged as either a non-investigative PR or a limited investigative PR.

what night did you claim doc to them, btw? N2 or N3?

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actually i don't see a point in dragging out this day when i'm unlikely to change my mind here.

nacho and gif are almost certainly town. i'm not convinced a godfather doesn't exist, but i'm currently thinking it's more likely beast is town. and i can't figure out who among AK, prohawk and Titus makes any sense as scum here.

Vote: notscience

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i don't believe ns actually thinks that was the hammer.