421 Smalltown 2: Scrubs Mafia! Game Over!


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Post Post #200 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2007 4:56 am

Post by Glork »

The switch means that you tracked
Glork
to
Glork and Thesp
. Nobody except Thesp and his scumbuddy have any idea what Thesp did.

You sent "Thesp" in as your target.
I switched Thesp and Glork.
That means that you actually targeted "Glork."
Thus, the result you got back was "Glork and Thesp."
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Post Post #201 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2007 5:04 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

OK, got it. And therefore Zindaras' reasoning in post 196 (and not just his conclusion) is wrong.
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Post Post #202 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2007 5:12 am

Post by Glork »

Correct. You both seemed to think that you still tracked Thesp to Glork/Thesp, which is wrong.
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Post Post #203 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2007 5:20 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Well I'm glad we've got that sorted out.

Now Glork, since you are confirmed town, please tell me who to vote for.
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Post Post #204 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2007 5:20 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

That was a joke BTW.
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Post Post #205 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2007 7:20 am

Post by Zindaras »

Mr Stoofer wrote:I don't like that post, and not just because of the last 3 words.

First, Zindie presents his 3 "explanations" as being the only ones possible, but they omit a number of others, including:

4: DragonsofSummer is scum
5: PBuG is scum and didn't kill (for fear that if something went wrong it would be obvious he was scum).
6: PBuG is scum and tried to kill me but Zindie saved me.

And no doubt there are others I have missed...
I omitted 4 because I believe that if DoS were scum, he would've been the guy making the kill last night. I can't see PBuG-Thesp scumgroup not trying to finish the game. Also, option 6 is completely impossible.
Secondly, I don't like the way Zindaras dismisses out of hand the possibility that he could be scum. Especially since that would explain why the Scum haven't targeted the doc for 3 nights...
They probably have different priorities.
Glork wrote:Also... we don't
know
whether Thesp made the mafia kill. Stoof tracked
ME
instead of Thesp, don't forget; so I don't know why we're assuming that Thesp made a kill at all. In fact, given that yesterday he accurately predicted that I targeted Stoof on the previous night, I would expect Thesp to
NOT
make the kill so that he could report an accurate Watcher-result.

Consider this possibility:
PBuG targets Glork, Thesp targets Stoofer.
Zindie protects against Thesp's kill; PBuG's kill redirects to Thesp; Thesp dies.
Nobody (except possibly me) is cleared right now. And you two are using a flawed premise in that you're assuming that Thesp made "the Mafia's kill" last night.
Ah, I get it now. Yeah, I was completely wrong. Can't divulge anything from tonight.
Zindie -- I explained why I didn't want to use my ability N0. We had a pair of info roles which I didn't want to mess up at the start of the game. It should be apparent that my usage of the Bus Driver ability has been as a protective role -- I've consistently targeted one player whom I thought was town and one player whom I thought was scum. I have no possible way of using the ability like that on N0.
I probably would've randomed it. I'm not entirely sure about the math, but I think it could've helped.
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Finished: 159 (120 Town, 33 Mafia, 5 Other, 1 Cult, 4 Cultivated)
68 Wins, 71 Losses
Town: 52 Wins, 54 Losses (2 Wins as Cult)
Mafia: 13 Wins, 15 Losses (1 Win as Cult)
Other: 3 Wins, 1 Loss (1 Win as Cult)
Cult: 0 Wins, 1 Loss
Cultivated: 4 Wins, 0 Losses
59 Survived, 31 Lynched, 60 Killed
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Post Post #206 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 4:50 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Mod
: can we have a sharp, painful prod on DragonsofSummer, please. He hasn't posted here for 8 days yet he's been active on the site.
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Post Post #207 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 6:37 am

Post by Rainbow Brite »

hi there, i'm rainbow brite, and i'm acting as a backup to seol who's acting as a backup to adele. mods are lovely things, i'm sure you'll agree - and you can't have too much of a good thing eh?

prod sent.

:D
hey, a sig!
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Post Post #208 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 8:53 am

Post by DragonsofSummer »

Sorry Guys. I've been checking I just kept missing that new info had developed in the thread because I never saw it anywhere near the top of the page. Thanks for the prod.

Looking back something occurs to me... is there any chance that this statement from P-Bug after my lynch vote on day two means anything?
PBuG wrote:DoS, thanks for the stupidity.
It almost feels like he thinks he just won the game to me...

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FoS:PBuG
"I want you to hit me as hard as you can."
-Tyler Durden
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Post Post #209 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 9:15 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Glork, knowing what we know now, is the following scenario plausible: Thesp targeted me for a kill and I was saved by Zindie; PBuG tried to kill you but the kill rebounded onto Thesp?

I know I should be able to work this out for myself but I've not had much luck with understanding your role so far...

And I'm not saying that I think that that happened; it just occurred to me as a scenario as I was preparing a post in response to DoS' post above.
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Post Post #210 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 9:21 am

Post by Glork »

Yes, Stoof, that is entirely plausible. The way my role works is as follows:
I target players A and B.
Anybody else who
would have
targeted A (i.e., anyone who sends "I target A" in some form as their night choice) ends up targeting B.... and vice versa.

In fact, the scenario you just posed is exactly what I said earlier, in Post 198:
Glork wrote:Consider this possibility:
PBuG targets Glork, Thesp targets Stoofer.
Zindie protects against Thesp's kill; PBuG's kill redirects to Thesp; Thesp dies.
It's still distinctly possible that PBuG/Thesp was in fact the scumgroup. DoS's observation of PBuG's post is interesting. I would very much like PBuG to respond to that post. It's possible that Zindie and I turned the tables on what should've been an auto-loss...
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Post Post #211 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2007 8:05 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

This game seems to be stalling, and I don't know why...

I don't usually like doing this but to get the game moving, I'll post a list of my suspects in order. I know other people like to do this and perhaps it will get some discussion going.

Glork is cleared, I believe. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think it's possible for him to be scum after last night.

That leaves DoS, PBug and Zindaras. We have (at least) two lynches left and so at worst that gives a 67% chance of success. Putting those 3 in order I'd say:

1. PBuG
2. DragonsofSummer
3.Zindaras.

I would not be astounded if any of these 3 were scum, but I'd put PBuG and DoS roughly equal (PBuG slightly ahead) on the scumminess scale, with Zindaras some way behind.

Discuss. Please!
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Post Post #212 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2007 8:14 am

Post by Glork »

Mod(s): Prod PBuG, please
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Post Post #213 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2007 4:42 am

Post by PBuG »

Stoofer, you completely omitted yourself as if you are cleared.
DragonsofSummer wrote:
PBuG wrote:DoS, thanks for the stupidity.
It almost feels like he thinks he just won the game to me...

Major
FoS:PBuG
I was talking about the huge mistake of hammering him so quickly. Maz was town, if you forgot. I wasn't the only one upset about the hammer.

I really don't understand why I'm so obnoxiously scummy when, from what I can see, the scummiest thing I can see of my actions was the huge mistake of the ability I chose - if I had taken the cop role, we'd have won by now in all likelihood. Yeah, I screwed up.

But, I have an idea. This hinges on thinking there's one scum left, and putting your faith on me with the possibility of repercussion for me. We lynch one out of Zindaras, Stoofer, and DoS, and then choose someone for me to vig. If I don't do what you ask, you lynch me.
rolandofthewhite (5:40:28 PM): It would be weird living with Thesp. All the hookers murdered and skin lying around. :(
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Post Post #214 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2007 11:00 am

Post by Glork »

Fail, PBuG. If we mislynch one of Zindaras/Stoof/DoS, and there's a nightkill + misvig, then there will be 2 left tomorrow and the scums will have won.

And the interpretation that DoS got from your post was "thanks for being stupid and hammering the townie for us... now we win the game"... if indeed you were Thesp's scumbuddy. Of course we noticed that Maz was town. :roll:

I'm thinking that DoS might be the play today. However, I am far from certain enough of this to lay down a vote. And anyway, I want to be the hammer today, because I may very well have some end-of-day thoughts to share, depending on how today shakes down.
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Post Post #215 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2007 11:01 am

Post by PBuG »

Ah. Point.
rolandofthewhite (5:40:28 PM): It would be weird living with Thesp. All the hookers murdered and skin lying around. :(
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Post Post #216 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2007 10:43 pm

Post by Mr Stoofer »

I'm
very
nervous about letting PBuG survive to another night. If we lynch PBuG today and he is town, we get another lynch tomorrow. If we let him live and he is scum... It's Game Over.
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Post Post #217 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2007 1:08 am

Post by Glork »

No, Stoof, read the rules. Since PBuG is in the
Mafia
and is not the
SK
, he can only make a Mafia kill
OR
make a Vig-kill. There will be a maximum of one death tonight, regardless of who the scum is:
Rules wrote:The Mafia have to choose someone to send to kill; that's
instead
of their usual nightchoice, and they are trackable/whatever as such
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Post Post #218 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2007 7:48 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

OK. Scratch post 216. Sorry.
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Post Post #219 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2007 9:15 am

Post by PBuG »

Okay, now think about this: If I'm mafia, what would my motives have been to take a vig power? Yeah, the mafia would have gotten an extra kill until Thesp was lynched, but here's another thing: I was first allowed to use my power the same night I got it. Why wouldn't I have used it then? It's not just one-shot.
rolandofthewhite (5:40:28 PM): It would be weird living with Thesp. All the hookers murdered and skin lying around. :(
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Post Post #220 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2007 10:58 am

Post by Zindaras »

Mr Stoofer wrote:That leaves DoS, PBug and Zindaras. We have (at least) two lynches left and so at worst that gives a 67% chance of success.
That you omit yourself as far as suspicions go is fine by me, but not taking yourself into account when calculating chances is absolutely bonkers.

I'll be frank here. I have no clue who the scumbag is. PBuG's role choices are odd to say the least, DoS's inactivity worries me, and Stoofer's posting just feels really scummy to me.

There is no real plan to clear anyone. There are a few things that could work, but they'd involve the scumbag not knowing about what we're planning to do, which is quite difficult to do.

So, it's all down to behaviour, as it probably should be. At the moment, the way Stoofer's posting makes me shiver, so if I'd have to cast a vote right now, I'd go with him.
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Finished: 159 (120 Town, 33 Mafia, 5 Other, 1 Cult, 4 Cultivated)
68 Wins, 71 Losses
Town: 52 Wins, 54 Losses (2 Wins as Cult)
Mafia: 13 Wins, 15 Losses (1 Win as Cult)
Other: 3 Wins, 1 Loss (1 Win as Cult)
Cult: 0 Wins, 1 Loss
Cultivated: 4 Wins, 0 Losses
59 Survived, 31 Lynched, 60 Killed
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Post Post #221 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2007 12:30 pm

Post by PBuG »

I'd vote for either Stoofer or Zindaras. I am starting to lean more towards Stoofer.
rolandofthewhite (5:40:28 PM): It would be weird living with Thesp. All the hookers murdered and skin lying around. :(
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Post Post #222 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2007 9:35 pm

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Zindaras wrote:
Mr Stoofer wrote:That leaves DoS, PBug and Zindaras. We have (at least) two lynches left and so at worst that gives a 67% chance of success.
That you omit yourself as far as suspicions go is fine by me, but not taking yourself into account when calculating chances is absolutely bonkers.
I was just talking out loud, as it were.
From my POV
the calculation is correct, because I know 100% that I am Town and 99.999999% that Glork is Town. The post you quote [211] was me setting out my position for the sake of getting the discussion going again.

I can well see that if you are Town, then the math from your POV is completely different.
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Post Post #223 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2007 9:36 pm

Post by Mr Stoofer »

PBuG wrote:I'd vote for either Stoofer or Zindaras. I am starting to lean more towards Stoofer.
Is that based on anything but OMGUS? You haven't identified anything, so far as I can see.
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Post Post #224 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2007 9:49 pm

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Ignore my previous post. This is what PBuG has said about me so far:
PBuG [172] wrote:I'm in agreement with Glork that everyone is pretty suspicious, and Glork is the only player I trust (and, by association, Stoofer).
PBuG [177] wrote:Glork is the only player that seems legitimately pro-town to me. I don't think Stoofer is definitely town, but I trust Glork's judgement thus far.
PBuG [192] wrote:Stoofer is mixed. On one hand, he was very against Vitamin, and tried to hasten his lynch. On the other hand, there are a few actions where it looks like Stoofer is testing the waters with a particular scummy line of thought and then pulls it back when there is discontent, but this is VERY subject to interpretation. Also, Stoofer seems to passively suspect me; he slightly argues for me being scum, but never really does much about it. Plus, in the past, I have attempted to hasten a scumbuddy's lynch to make myself appear as town, and successfully often.
PBuG [221] wrote:I'd vote for either Stoofer or Zindaras. I am starting to lean more towards Stoofer.
It looks to me as though the real reason he is "suspicious" of me is because of my suggesting that he is scum (i.e. OMGUS).
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