is probably a town vanilla tbh but in the absence of any major scumtells, I don't have a problem with pushing him overboard if he's going to be a liability; we need the final group of players to be people whose judgment we can rely on
this post is kinda bad but I don't think it comes from scum most of the time?
just feels like a thought a town is more likely to have
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:12 pm
by Chemist1422
In post 185, Mr Oobsy wrote:There's nothing to be gleaned from random votes. Everyone's trying to find meaning where there cannot possibly be any. Then arguing about the non-existant meaning they think they found. Without power roles sharing clues nobody can hope to accomplish anything but random lynch and hope they flip
In post 180, Mr Oobsy wrote:I just remembered we can vote for no lynch. Please join me everyone!
VOTE: NO LYNCH
no
this is funnier to me than it should be
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:14 pm
by Chemist1422
I'm remembering half the game by avatars at this point but I have oobsy and detective pikachu avatar as my top two town rn
micc/skitter probably same level but I have a higher level of expectation for their scum games so they're actually lower
leaves uh
leu/farren/norwegian/someone whose name started with a j I think
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:15 pm
by Chemist1422
jamelia that was it
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:16 pm
by Chemist1422
my ego wants to vote jamelia for calling me inactive when they're 7-posting but that's probably not an overall great move+they had a couple posts I liked
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:22 pm
by Chemist1422
there were a couple posts from farren that I disliked but they overall weren't bad?
In post 175, Leucosticte wrote:Dyrenz -- seems okay, leaning slightly scum maybe just because stylistically they remind me of someone who was scum last game
who do they remind you of ?
Good question, I probably should've put their name so that I'd remember in case anyone asked. It wasn't a game on this site, though.
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:05 pm
by Mr Oobsy
In post 191, skitter30 wrote:
because scum can win the game by no lynching each day and killing a townie each night. it'll take like five phases i think for them to win, but it'll happen eventually - much slower than if they got some mislynches along the way
in contrast, if town doesn't lynch, they have no way of removing scum from the game
there's literally no way to win by constantly no lynching
We don't need to lynch a
Town
for clues because a
Town
is dying tonight regardless. You're implying we would lynch a
Mafia
but the odds are overwhelmingly against that.
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:04 pm
by Jamelia
Me being “inactive” I was just at work and honestly I just don’t have that much to contribute because I have no clue what to poke at. I read the rules and everything but nothing is like “oh wow, I need to ~investigate~.”
I just got home from work and I have time to write a full analysis of what people have said and literally trying to be as specific as possible.
In post 181, Farren wrote:I would not describe Norwegian as cautious and somewhat passive, from what I've seen so far in this game.
why is this a voteworthy offense?
Because I don't believe that's an actual reason for a read.
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:09 pm
by Farren
In post 186, Dyrenz wrote:We're definitely beyond random voting at this stage. Votes made, at least some of them anyway, are calculated and based on intuition/hunches.
Farren has, at least twice now, piggybacked Micc's reads specifically regarding me.
Jamelia reminds me of someone from my last game who flipped scum, so while I might be reading her as slightly scummy, I'm worried it's just reminding me of my last game.
I've agreed with some of what Micc has said regarding you, yes.
In post 191, skitter30 wrote:
because scum can win the game by no lynching each day and killing a townie each night. it'll take like five phases i think for them to win, but it'll happen eventually - much slower than if they got some mislynches along the way
in contrast, if town doesn't lynch, they have no way of removing scum from the game
there's literally no way to win by constantly no lynching
We don't need to lynch a
Town
for clues because a
Town
is dying tonight regardless. You're implying we would lynch a
Mafia
but the odds are overwhelmingly against that.
The lynch isn't random. We're not rolling dice to see who gets sent to the gallows. Voting at the beginning was arbitrary, yes, but we have to start somewhere. The arbitrariness doesn't last - and hasn't lasted. People make arguments. People make decisions. We judge people based on what they say - or don't say, as the case may be.
Maybe we get it wrong. But it's another source of information - and one that has its basis in public. One that's far more likely to provide us with useful information than anything the NK can provide.
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:22 pm
by Farren
In post 203, Chemist1422 wrote:I'm remembering half the game by avatars at this point but I have oobsy and detective pikachu avatar as my top two town rn
micc/skitter probably same level but I have a higher level of expectation for their scum games so they're actually lower
leaves uh
leu/farren/norwegian/someone whose name started with a j I think
Why do you have Dyrenz as Town?
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:07 pm
by NorwegianboyEE
In post 179, Dyrenz wrote:
After re-reading Norwegian's ISO, I think it a light town read at best. My best reasoning being that his play style seems similar to mine (cautious, somewhat passive) and I just responded positively to that. Of course, now I'm thinking my slow and steady play style isn't always the most efficient way to hunt scum. Might drop him to a null read though, as his posting is more reactive than inquisitive.
You are correct. My posts tend to be more reactive in general. It’s the way i play most of the time. I’ve tried to be more outgoing before but it usually ends in me getting lynched by mafia because i might get erratic or obsessive over those i believe to be mafia. Therefore i am intentionally trying to tone down my language and behaviour so i can stay more calm and collected about this whole thing.
Either way, i want to be helpful by writing huge lines of statistics or something, but i’m afraid i’ve got nothing so far. The scumtells are way too subtle by this point for me to want to double down on anyone in particular except for Chemist.
Maybe i can try to analyze posts so far and post my reads? But don’t take it too seriously if i post it, as it will simply be based upon the language and general helpfullness of those who have posted so far.
In post 173, Micc wrote:yall, I think Dryenz is scum. More people should vote him.
Apparently you picked the wrong person's name to practice your spelling on.
I'm assuming your read on Dyrenz has worsened since you voted for him, given that you're now actively rallying for his lynch. What has he done since then to cause that?
Besides what I outlined in the post where I voted, Dyrenz's post 186 came across as deflection to me. He didn't engage in answering any of the questions I asked, and brushed the things I didn't like off as a playstyle thing.
He also threw in reads on two players without giving analysis, along with analysis on a player without a read. His thoughts don't feel natural to me.
In post 214, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Maybe i can try to analyze posts so far and post my reads? But don’t take it too seriously if i post it, as it will simply be based upon the language and general helpfullness of those who have posted so far.
Learning how to make reads is something that comes with time.
because scum can win the game by no lynching each day and killing a townie each night. it'll take like five phases i think for them to win, but it'll happen eventually - much slower than if they got some mislynches along the way
in contrast, if town doesn't lynch, they have no way of removing scum from the game
there's literally no way to win by constantly no lynching
We don't need to lynch a
Town
for clues because a
Town
is dying tonight regardless. You're implying we would lynch a
Mafia
but the odds are overwhelmingly against that.
The odds are overwhelmingly against lynching mafia on any given day. Waiting until Day 2 doesn't change that, it just brings the game from 9 players to 8 players which is from 3 mislynches needed for scum to win to 2 mislynches.
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:38 pm
by Micc
Actually, since your almost certainly planning to counter with something related to information from power roles, consider this:
Lynching on day 1 is like having a free cop shot. There’s a 2/9 chance the moderator will come back with a Mafia result and 7/9 chance for Town. Why wouldn’t you take the free cop shot when regardless of taking it or not, the game is going to move from 3 mislynches to 2?
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:21 pm
by NorwegianboyEE
Farren: My initial thought is: "this guy posts a lot". I like him, a lot of his observations make sense. And while i don’t mind him being suspicious of me, i do think his reason is a little BS. I do not see myself as being particurarly "aggressive" in this game. But i’m hoping it’s just his way of putting pressure on the mafia. If he is genuine he might be one of the strongest mafia hunters we have, so i’d prefer him to stay alive for as long as possible.
Jamelia: His main contribution is defending Chemist, which makes it odd to me that some people here has put him as a strong townread. I could easily see what he is doing as mafia motivated. If he is mafia and knows Chemist is townie, maybe he’s defending him against the accusations to gain townie points if Chemist’s flip is revealed? Other than defending Chemist he has mostly been playing the "look how new i am at this guys!" Which doesn’t necesarily indicate towniness. I personally see him as neutral for now.
Leucosticte: I really like his posts. A lot of valuable intel to be gathered from his iso. And he has put a lot of my thoughts into text form.
Mr Oobsy: This guy isn’t Semi-experienced but new?! Wow. He seems very competent. I’m not sure I agree with all of his analysis, but they are definitely thought-provoking. His no lynch idea is dumb though, either it’s just a noobie mistake or he’s mafia trying to influence town into making mistakes. Hopefully it’s not the latter. (Off-topic question: is this your first mafia game or do you have off-site experience like I do?)
Micc (SE): He is acting like a good senpai should with giving out lots of newbie tips and tricks for how mafia works, how to weed out mafia, etc... His main gripe is with Dyrenz it seems, and he puts Skitter30 as a townread. I’m feeling a neutral vibe from him. I want to put him higher into the list, but he could also be abusing people’s trust in him to make us mislynch, and that’s one of my biggest worries right now. It is why I am trying not to let people influence my decisions too much in this early stage of the game.
Skitter30 (SE): Well she was initially voicing the same concerns i had with Chemist.
So this of course, automatically makes her a townread.
/s
No but seriously, a lot of good points in her iso. (But i do want to know why she suddenly did an 180 by declaring me to "actually be kinda scummy.")
Also... She won an award for "best scum team"?? /autolynch (Nah jk)
Dyrenz: Hmm... My intuition says this guy is kinda scummy based solely on the fact that his playstyle reminds me of myself as a scum player. But i don’t want to feed my paranoia this early in the game. I’m keeping him neutral for now. Because i want to see what the town’s current pressure on him yields and take it from there.
Chemist1422 (SE): I’ve talked a lot about why i scumread this dude already, no point in repeating myself. I also get the vibe that most of his posts were quite low-effort initially. Only later in the game has he at least given us some reads and observations to work with. So he is finally getting some townie points from me, but still a minor scumread since i don’t see anyone else that’s been acting with this guys level of suspiciousness yet.
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:51 pm
by Plotinus
baby seal
Mod notes:
[/area]
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:34 am
by NorwegianboyEE
And it case it wasn’t obvious, my number 1 suspect is still Chemist.
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:39 am
by Dyrenz
Alright, it would appear that overall expectations for level of analysis and contribution are much higher from my first game. Our towniest player wrote in 1-2 sentence posts and said I was their highest town read. I've been in the middle ground of effort, which apparently is worse(?) than being low effort. It seems to be giving off the idea that I am pretending to contribute while not giving enough substantive information to back up the reads offered. Allow me to correct my own laziness then.
NorwegianboyEE
- Initial opening onto Chemist, gives and defends reasons for voting. Plays similarly to myself with a cautious, evidence-based voting style. Tries his best to offer analytics, but again like myself is not too good at catching the subtler tells. Mentions my playstyle reminds them of themselves as scum. Has kept vote on Chemist from the beginning, mostly due to having no other convincing voting options in his opinion. Probably town, but the comment on how their scum game reminds them of how I play makes me wonder. -
Null
/
Scum
Micc
- Clearly very experienced SE, offers detailed insight into his aggressive and inquisitive playstyle. Lower end of postcount, but overall every post has substance and pushes his agenda. Seems dead set at this point on lynching me and frankly I'm not entirely certain as to why. I'm playing roughly the same as my last game, albeit with more confidence after my first successful town win, and I was a high town read by almost all players. Probably just difference in playstyle I'm guessing. Micc looks to be trying to lead town which at his experience level is very good for us if he is town but very very bad if he is scum. Null read for now, but to say I don't like him is probably just OMGUS. -
Null
Farren
- He is asking a lot of questions, but not providing much analysis. His given reason for voting me is pretty weak in my opinion, basically is saying "your read is wrong IMO, you're scum!". Reading over his ISO again, might actually be my scummiest read. -
Scum
Jamelia
- Lowest contribution to the town so far. Playing the "wait and see" game without doing much else. Last post stated he would be providing a full analysis on reads soon, so I'll be waiting on that. Overall I don't have a whole lot to go on so I am looking forward to reading his reads. -
Null
Mr Oobsy
- Love the usage of colored fonts and bolded names, makes his posts easy to read through. I really don't like the No Lynch vote, but that could have been a play to get reactions from different people. I really dig his attitude overall. Actively applies pressure with voting instead of sitting on an empty vote. Probably my highest town read. -
Town
Leucosticte
- Experienced in the game but a newbie to the Mafiascum meta. Probably just adjusting to how the meta goes here, but he makes the mistake of trying to make PR reads, potentially endangering important town roles on our first day. Does it again later on as well. Comically, he even put himself in his reads, talking highly of himself. Probably town, just figuring out the forum meta like the rest of us newbies. -
Town
Chemist
- Looking back on it, probably used initial RVS to bait an unwary scum voter. Posts might be short, but they offer substance. Wish he'd offer more opinions on things, but he did mention most of what he's got revolves around PRs and he doesn't want to risk getting people NK'd so maybe he is just playing it safe. -
Town
Skitter
- Highest postcount, albeit many are a short one-liner. Nonetheless, posts have substance and she is actively trying to find scum. Very sorry if I got her pronoun wrong earlier. Scumleans are Norwegian and Farren, which are actually my two most favorable scumleans as well. -
Town
Also, a meta question. Are analytical reads as important as I am making them out to be? The SEs are all, from what I can tell, more focused on narrower lines of inquistion instead of broad analysis.
In post 191, skitter30 wrote:
because scum can win the game by no lynching each day and killing a townie each night. it'll take like five phases i think for them to win, but it'll happen eventually - much slower than if they got some mislynches along the way
in contrast, if town doesn't lynch, they have no way of removing scum from the game
there's literally no way to win by constantly no lynching
We don't need to lynch a
Town
for clues because a
Town
is dying tonight regardless. You're implying we would lynch a
Mafia
but the odds are overwhelmingly against that.
Ok
How do you propose we win this game?
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:44 am
by skitter30
In post 217, NorwegianboyEE wrote:No but seriously, a lot of good points in her iso. (But i do want to know why she suddenly did an 180 by declaring me to "actually be kinda scummy.")
Also... She won an award for "best scum team"?? /autolynch (Nah jk)
I initially thought the way you were posting was townie, but it's only townie if you dont have much mafia experience. Otherwise it's nai imo
I think your chemist push is awful, and misrepy, and scummy
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:46 am
by skitter30
In post 220, Dyrenz wrote:Chemist - Looking back on it, probably used initial RVS to bait an unwary scum voter. Posts might be short, but they offer substance. Wish he'd offer more opinions on things, but he did mention most of what he's got revolves around PRs and he doesn't want to risk getting people NK'd so maybe he is just playing it safe. - Town
I dont get it
Why is this a townread?
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:52 am
by NorwegianboyEE
In post 222, skitter30 wrote:
I think your chemist push is awful, and misrepy, and scummy
