Musician Mafia: Guitarists GAME OVER

[Grendel]

Im guessing Bambi is cult now then?

-/-/-/-/-

@Lavender

who did you doc?

[Grendel]

im floored that both dave and pooky were both town. Im not even sure what else to say atm.

Besides the obvious that im terribad at this game.

[Grendel]

idk what towns chances are even to win now. The safest thing is would be a no-flip and hope that scum and cult trade shots i think...

Are there other reasonable scenarios town can win?

[Grendel]

you're at 3 members rn, regardless the rest of the rosters composition. dont you win once you have 50% of the roster culted?

Town cant win even if we hit mafia this day phase b/c that would put 3 non-cult, to 3 cults, and cult wins by default.

Unless im misunderstanding and town still wins in that situation?

[Grendel]

Lavender has confirmed doc protects under their belt.

pisskop/Gamma/Bambi are cult

Unless A50 is lying about bieng 3rd party scum basically has to be Tipain here. Or i guess they could be scum togather but i think its more likely theres only one left. Im kinda inclined to believe A50s claim atm.

[Grendel]

you're at 3 members rn, regardless the rest of the rosters composition. dont you win once you have 50% of the roster culted?

Town cant win even if we hit mafia this day phase b/c that would put 3 non-cult, to 3 cults, and cult wins by default.

Unless im misunderstanding and town still wins in that situation?

I guess what im wanting to know is if 3 cult, and 3 non-cults, are together with no scum left. Is that a shared victory, or does cult win alone?

b/c i know in a situaion where there are 2 cult, and 3 non-cults, and no scum, would be a win for both town and cult if im understanding that correctly. But first cult win-con was tied to tying with remaining living players , and that was solo win. Hence Pisskop going for that at first and not townsiding until he realized it was a thing he could do.

[Grendel]

if Town cant win along side cult in a 3:3 senerio then i will probably no vote today, and hope for a cross shot between factions. :/

-/-/-/-

Pre-edit

Woooow, so scum really didnt target into the cult last night. What a weird play on their part.

Thanks for the info and protect Lav

[Grendel]

To clarify I was expecting mafia to try and widdle down cult some last night. I figured that was scums only way to win here. No cult flip last night I thought maybe Lav prevented a kill on pisskop or something.

I feel like I outted enough info that I might as well role claim. Im a vigilante, Drew, and pooky are my kills. I may or may not have one shot left.

I waited to use my shots once the PoE pool had shrunken down and I felt more confidant in my reads. I wish i had used it sooner to ax Tipain before i 2nd guessed myself there later in the game. :death:

[Grendel]

Ethier scum and i both shot Pooky, or they attepted to hit me agian last night, and Lav protected me.

Unless there are some options im missing here

[Grendel]

Im just really confused why scum would opt to shoot pooky over a cult investigator ://///

in fact I'd say that pisskop was probably a better kill then me last night as well. Becuase his power was outted, and i was just conf!town at the time.

What a weird world we live in lol

[Grendel]

TIpainn, maybe if you are scum you should be truthful about it~

if you arent scum then whowh is?

[Grendel]

GAmmmmaaaa!

Tell me more thoughts and things! gimmie the down low

[Grendel]

It basically has to be Tipain, or a50 is a lier

-/-/-/-/-/

idk what you mean by askew Gamma. I tried to get people not to focus on it yesterday b/c i wanted to be able to shoot agian tonight without risk of mafia rb

I noticed something weird about him and Nopow when i was first starting to read the game but i got distracted by everything else happening.

It circeled back around when i was doing my reread right before Day... whichever day Rude was flipped. That was why I came into that day screaming for Rude and nopow to flavor cliam.

[Grendel]

Grendel, you are my only town read left. I know nothing. Let the fuckers kill each other.

VOTE: no lynch

I want you to be town... but idk man. if it is nt you who it it?

[Grendel]

^if its not you who is it* @Tipain

sorry I'm drinking. Maybe I should go to bed

[Grendel]

Gamma do you know if 3:3 cult and non-cult(but no scum) still win togather? or is it cult solo win?

[Grendel]

Bambi and dave didnt mention you visiting them either Galreon. :/

I just dont see why town vigs dbg over like... idk most of the roster. She was one of the most town looking players...

Wait didnt we have a dayvig this game? who yall powerroped?

THat was an item that Galreon got from starbuck, not his real role lol

-/-/-/-/-

My vig cliam was fake btw

My real role is Mirror. Anybody visiting me at night has their power redirected back onto themselves; this includes Night kills. THe NOPOW, and Drew deaths are both mine by virtue of those players attempting to shoot me.

I was hoping to try and draw more night kills by acting like I had active kill power yesterday and today. Hence the vig fake cliam.

I didnt realize that my role would make me unrecruitable. If i had known that then I probably would have said so yesterday. :/

Also i guess that this technically means that LAV is disconfirmed as town, but I still TR them for history of visiting highly likely nk bait like DGB, and then me after i won that 1v1 w/ rude. Which lines up with what a town protective would do.

[Grendel]

Wait! You are a Vig!! You could've put me out of my misery last night!!!! And you opted to shoot Pooky over me??

Spoiler: Read my lips!

If i had kill power i would have targeted you last night over pooky tbh

Sorry dude

[Grendel]

if there are only two cult alive right now then i would say that finding a flip today is much better then a no-flip.

Im pretty happy to vote between Tipain and A50.

[Grendel]

ACtully reading things more throuhgly i probably could have kept running with the vig cliam and found a way to work things out.

I ruined a perfectly good gambit

-/-/-/-/-

Pisskop trying to gladiator me here is a waste of resourses. I think its better to try and pin down last scum.

[Grendel]

The cult keeps ignoring the 3:3 question i put to them earlier which kind of confirms my worries that cult solo win if they control 50% of the roster.

So if we are wrong on scum, and scum chooses not to shoot cult tonight then its gg and cult wins alone.

I hope whoever is scum is reading this attentively lol. They have no choice but to shoot cult tonight if they want to have any chance at wining.

-/-/-/-/

Im not saying this becuse I dont want cult to win. I just want to make sure town wins as well.

[Grendel]

@Bambi, what power did you use last night

[Grendel]

Pisskop, who do you think is scum rn?

It factually can't be me b/c drew"s role pm clears me of that. I dont really care atm if you think im indie, as long as we hit scum today (and theres only one left) that argument doesn't even have to take place.

[Grendel]

Phaser. And my last power is Delay.

Hopefuly that doesn't act like the delayed modifer. :death:

[Grendel]

Pisskop, i dont think you are crazy for thinking I was a maf/sk after i claimed vig in thread, and your recuit failed last night. Your reaction makes sense here.

I guess the vig fake cliam was a play i shouldnt have done in retrospect. Tho, I thought it was a good idea at the time. :/

[Grendel]

but why would lav shoot pooky?

Pooky was all in Lavs pocket this game

[Grendel]

Hmm... i mean i guess Lavenders night actions could be explained from the pov of scum role blocker, or blocking variant. :/

I meant to meta Lavender a while ago when i saw that chikfilp was hard TRing lavender over it. I guess thats what i gotta look into tomarow.

[Grendel]

I posted a nice accumulation of links jsyk

whats jsvk?

-/-/-/-/-/-

i read Lav's tmk one completed scum game, and a couple of her town games. idk what chkflip was talking about b/c Lav's play seems pretty interchangeable as both alignemnts.

i stand by the feelings that pooky is a weird kill for Lav to make, but Ill mull over some things.

[Grendel]

Doing this post to say:

@Grendel: So you had me doing all this crazy stuff calculations with a fake claim?? *BIG SIGH* (Actually but ALSO *BIG SIGH*)

ngl i winced when i saw your meaty effort post a couple pages back. Sorry if you invested a great deal of time on it. D:

[Grendel]

prod-dodge

Past couple days were rough, and the next couple irl days are looking rough. I should be back in full force after that.

[Grendel]

That's what I'm sayin, based on their claim they need three members before they can kill, however we don't know for certain if it's true or not!
So isn't the best solution to just see the Cult Leader's role card? (^o^)

main concern with that is that if there are two cult alive rn, (and that makes sense given pisskop's interactions with me earlier), so if we flipped one, and mafia shot the other tonight, then wouldnt that mean we lost a role with investigative abilities, and screwed town-siding indie out of their win-con for no reason?

[Grendel]

By which I mean I will invariably commit honorable sudoku because no one is gonna vote with me, except maybe A50, and he's probably a scumfuck xD.

Why priorize 3rd party when you're that confidant A50 is mafia?

[Grendel]

Im not v keen on flipping a cultist today. I'd rather try to hit mafia.

i should try and do some thinking about what the game plan should be for tonight based how things could play out today.

[Grendel]

@Gamma & Pisskop

What happened to doing VCA?

I was looking forward hearing your thoughts.

[Grendel]

Well, whatever. I ain't town so I don't really care if town wins or loses. Bambi being against a cult shred certainly points towards him NOT being SCUM, but there's always the chance he was the true cult recruit of last night. (His theory about a "hidden" 3rd cult member is an interesting take). Also TD's suggestion that Gamma's claim was "in reverse" and that Gamma is the true CL also makes sense, and especially so since Gamma himself admitted he sent NPOM to kill Grendel.

Now in light if that I may have 2 "dim" additional points that may support TD's theory: a) Gamma has a history with PL in the field of cult stuff, and it makes more sense that Gamma would claim as the leader not as a follower (which is what he did before; claiming as a recruit), and b) PK trying to shred Grendel after they had failed to kill him makes more sense than them trying to recruit him after the failed kill.

I thus now think PK did recruit Bambi and

the cult are going for the solitary win

Now let me tell you a theory of my own (that

does

support TD's theory, and "maybe" Bambi as a last night recruit): As a novice mod, if I wanted to include Cult in my setup, I'd either limit their recruitment to X shots or give them a maximum membership cap. The third option is to make them play against everyone else (i.e. I probably won't even have a "Mafia" team, but this option is already proven false in this game).

But seriously, I don't care what Town does at this point. I have resigned to having registered my 2nd loss as 3P in 2020, so if you want to end the game today with a Cult exclusive win you go for it.

This line of reasoning lines up with an indie whose win-con is reliant of getting shot. He just saying what he says to pad out the game.

He could still be scum... I GUESS. But 3rd party seems more likely rn.

Really the only think that stops me from 100% thinking A50 is indie, and not scum. Is his mid game apathy that dosent really line up with somebody who needs to be night killed to win.

[Grendel]

@Tipaindeath

How good are you are faking tinfoily townie paranoia as scum?

-/-/-/-/-

I really want Lav to be town, but i dont really know anymore. I think at the very least that if she's scum then shes not running solo. I dont think solo Lav goes for a weird wifom kill on Pooky last night. So by virture of that I would say shes a bad flip for today.

[Grendel]

Historically my VCA skills are really hit and miss... ://///// I was hoping to watch some first hand from people that seem to know what they are doing lol.

[Grendel]

That's what I'm sayin, based on their claim they need three members before they can kill, however we don't know for certain if it's true or not!
So isn't the best solution to just see the Cult Leader's role card? (^o^)

main concern with that is that if there are two cult alive rn, (and that makes sense given pisskop's interactions with me earlier), so if we flipped one, and mafia shot the other tonight, then wouldnt that mean we lost a role with investigative abilities, and screwed town-siding indie out of their win-con for no reason?

A) What makes you think pisskop can't recruit even if he was eliminated? Didn't he claim he can do that?
B) If you do think pisskop was lying about this detail, why are you trusting the rest of his claim?

I was also going to respond to the "investigative role" bit, but it'd become messy WIFOM. Like, from YOUR PoV (according to your claim) you are practically guaranteed not to be NK'd or culted tonight. Iirc you firmly believe Lav is Town. You have 2 claimed Cult members, so it's between me, TD & Bambi.

Even more, since there was a kill last night I'm guessing Bambi has yet to use "Delay", which sounds like the Scum NK/Cult recruitment will be resolved a night later anyway. So, you basically can verify the Cult AND go for the Mafia elimination before Scum can kill or Cult can recruit.

But I will acknowledge this could become messy because pisskop was trying to sell you as Scum, and I'm not sure who bought the possibility and who didn't. (I know I didn't, but that's about it)

RE-A) Well, the after-death recruit seemed like a bluff to me b/c it sounds unprecedented? I dont think it cant be true but im skeptical. The other things he said about his cult I think i've heard of similarities elsewhere. Those are things that i have a concrete idea how they can be balanced and play out.

RE-B) Im willing to believe that he is bluffing on that one aspect while still being able/willing to work with town b/c there are instances where players will omit or add aspects to their role for the sake of night time mind games.

The night play, and how the delayed motifier will affect it is a question mark for me. Im inclined to agree that it gives everyhting a delayed modifer tonight. I keep fprgeting that she is using that power tonight lol.

I think Pisskop came to the correct conclusion that im town after you talked to him, and i outted my real role.

[Grendel]

@Grendel: two reasons behind the vote 1. They dared me to and that pissed me off. 2. We don't know that when they win town wins with them, and there may well be three of them right now if bambi is the third, so any lynch outside cult may end the game in favor of cult and not with town.

@Grendel: I am not sure A50 is scum. I am not sure of anything in this game anymore. I think I've made that pretty clear.

@Grendel: When I'm scum I am WAAAAY more tunnely than this, and probably a smidge less paranoid. It's self-meta, but hey, you asked for it xD.

If bambi is his 3rd cult then that situation of him pushing a failed recruit on me makes no sense from a day play perspective.

If i wasnt the exact role i was ei mirror, then I'd think he was trying to endgame town by pushing a fake result. WE'd be 1v1'ing rn, and that seems really stupid considering how im bascially conft!town, or atleast Conf!notscum. THeres no way he wins that. If his game plan was to quietly recruit one player, and push a fake gulity on another to sweep, he'd do it on a player he could win a 1v1 agianst. The fact he dosent is enough to verify that he's not lying about who his night action last night.

[Grendel]

Yeah Delay is my last one. But I think it might be the opposite of Tuner which started the day early. It might give us 2 night phases instead.

that is a possiblity i havent thought about.

[Grendel]

Yeah, same thing I said to rude applies to grendel, if you are 3P in all this you really do need to hardclaim it now, because it looks like we are after rude first, but if rude flips green then you're gonna die mate. Like, if he is an idiot and doesn't claim and flips gray then MAYBE you get to live, but if you're gray you gotta tell us.

Honestly at this point if rude flips red I am like 75% tempted to call this a gambit and powerlynch grendel ANYWAY.

I keep coming back to this line of thought by Tipain when Rude and i were 1v1ing.

It seems like really weird choice for scum to make. hmm

[Grendel]

*Bambi Jay*

Tell me your thoughts on Tipaindeath rn

[Grendel]

I think tipain is more likely to flip scum here. VOTE: Tipaindeath

I'm not opposed to getting A50 flipped today though. If he is a 3rd party night jester then he could be a problem down the road. For instance mylo scum negotiations , or king maker situations. Otherwise he is bluffing scum, but I find that less likely then 3rd party.

I feel obligated to mention that is mechanically impossible for bambi to be Solo scum bc scum don't have mutitasking. She couldn't use her powers and preform the nk.

Lav also unlikely Solo scum for reasons I previously mentioned in another post

[Grendel]

@lavender/b]

If cult is flipped today you should cover last cult member tonight. If anybody else is flipped you should target into me to redirect the protect onto yourself.

[Grendel]

@pisskop

A50 is probably an indie, why not consolidate onto Tipain who looks like real scum rn?

I'd rather A50 be your recruit choice. That way A50 still can win with the "town/cult coelution" if the game continues.

plus im wary that if we let tipain!scum live at this juncture he will game throw by not shooting cult tonight. Based off his recent A50 vote.

[Grendel]

I think tipain is more likely to flip scum here. VOTE: Tipaindeath

I'm not opposed to getting A50 flipped today though. If he is a 3rd party night jester then he could be a problem down the road. For instance mylo scum negotiations , or king maker situations. Otherwise he is bluffing scum, but I find that less likely then 3rd party.

I feel obligated to mention that is mechanically impossible for bambi to be Solo scum bc scum don't have mutitasking. She couldn't use her powers and preform the nk.

Lav also unlikely Solo scum for reasons I previously mentioned in another post

GDI, man! It's not about what's

likely

anymore. It's about "what if

the unlikely is true

?". You're adamant to take the risk of handing the game to the Cult.

I get that you suspect TD, and I get that you also suspect me to a lesser degree. Fine. I accept that. Now THINK:

What if <whomever we shred> flips NOT SCUM

? And what if Cult DO recruit a third member tonight? That would be GAME BLOODY OVER! With six alive (even disregarding the Scum NK) Cult will already have achieved their win con. The problem is if Scum DO kill outside of the bloody Cult. THAT is YOUR problem.

Now let me tell you about mine:

Assuming TD is not currently culted and we shred him, scum canNOT afford to shoot me lest the Cult DO succeed in recruiting a third. This means I am NOT going to get shot tonight either.

The

only

way you keep

everyone

happy today is by shredding a

bloody cultist

. That way you are guaranteed

there is a tomorrow

in this game.

I don't have the slightest idea why you want to take that leap of faith and try to shred Scum today instead. If you succeed, that's GOOD, and it may even end the game in your favour (and I still lose). If you fail (to shred scum) though, you are forfeiting the game yourself (and I bloody still lose).

So, let me ask you this question: Are you willing to end the game today/tonight regardless of the outcome? Or are you trying to end it with a TOWN win?

its not a forfeit unless the game moves into night phsae instead of ending, and scum decide to not shoot cult tonight.

I guess that wanting to hit scum right this minute is risky since If im wrong then scum can king maker tonight and let cult win. But idk why mafia would do that outside of spitefulness.

[Grendel]

*@pisskop and Gamma*

Actully now that i think about it, why did you guys choose to try and recruit me last night? I thought you agreed to use your powers like a cop shot?

you also said that either of you can recruit right? you dont require the leader?

[Grendel]

I doubt the mod is going to clarify but if

@Baker

feels like confirming for us that the cult win-condition does not create a loss for town, I am willing and happy to hear it.

I think it's OBVIOUS that if they are alive at ENDGAME it means someone else won, and thy win WITH that "someone else".

NOPM role pm, and this post by baker clearly means that town and cult can win together. I felt the need to double check.

-/-/-/

Trying to recruit the most town read player on the roster after saying you;d try and recruit scum the day prior seems really underhanded to me. I dont like what they implies about cult's original plan for today.

UNVOTE:

[Grendel]

Maybe the best path for today is flip a cultist / have lav cover remaining cultist tonight / cult recruits A50 tonight.

unless is the recruit takes priority over, or executes simultaneously as, killing shots. if thats the case then lav can cover me tonight and not worry about protecting cult b/c last cult can recruit even if they also die that night.

@The Baker

If mafia shoot a player attempting to recruit at night, does the recruiting ablity still go through?

[Grendel]

out of the two cultists I'd probably flip pisskop today b/c I feel like he's less willing to work with town then Gamma is.

Heck, Gamma was the one who wanted to out and townside in the first place.

[Grendel]

page top

ngl im still supremely tempted to flip tipain win or lose haha. I've lost steam, and most the others have as well.

However, out of respect to dead townies in this game I will try and take the safer path.

[Grendel]

Gamma was openly town reading me in thread, going as far as to call me practically conf!town. Why'd he feel a need to cop me? :/

Can you explain in better detail how recruitment works? Does it have to be done by you?

[Grendel]

Maybe the best path for today is flip a cultist / have lav cover remaining cultist tonight / cult recruits A50 tonight.

unless is the recruit takes priority over, or executes simultaneously as, killing shots. if thats the case then lav can cover me tonight and not worry about protecting cult b/c last cult can recruit even if they also die that night.

@The Baker

If mafia shoot a player attempting to recruit at night, does the recruiting ablity still go through?

Leaving this here to ensure baker sees incase he misses this on the page bottom

[Grendel]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... Resolution

Looking at this i'd say that recruitment happens after a night kill. So its probably better for lavender to cover last cult tonight.

@Gamma or Pisskop

can pisskop really recruit after death, or is that a bluff?

[Grendel]

idk why you guys are so insistent on a flip A50 when Tipain is much scummeir, but ok, you do you.

-/-/-/-/-/

Also a note here that bambi's delay action tonight could be like a delayed modifer, and if thats the case then cult recruit as a cop check wont be much help tomarrow. Keep that in mind before trying to insta flip anybody.

[Grendel]

VOTE: A50
I have little assurance this will flip scum but I think we need something

WAIT WAS THAT HAMMER?!

[Grendel]

I was trying the ensure as many folk could win as possible given that no indies in this game rn have win-cons that cant be met along side town. Really rude to ignore what i was trying to do just b/c A50 was getting on your nerves.

I mean i guess A50 _could_ have been scum, but trying to recruit him would've solved that slot.

[Grendel]

Lav needs to cover me

Remaining scum needs to shoot a cult otherwise the game is over for them and town.

[Grendel]

if this ends up being a solo cult win after all i did to work alongside cult for a mutual victory then im going to be pretty upset

[Grendel]

Tbh i was expecting A50 to flip indie, and thought Tipain was final scum. Im sorry for that tipain.

Over all my reads were not great. I think only times I correctly pushed scum were when i was sheeping DGB's Icerint vote. I suspected Drew, but hes play right before he died moved me to think he was town agian. I had A50 in my PoE early on, but i bought his cliam somewhat and that screwed me over. Only thing im happy about was that i got to use my role to reflect two night kills. Mirror is like a much more sadisiying version of PGO, I dont have to worry about hurting most town PR.

A50 claim does feel fake looking back but in the moment I thought it fit in reasonably with the Mod's status as liking funny gimmick role.

[Grendel]

I am really happy to get to experience some players I've seen around over the years but never really played until now. Pisskop, DBG, A50, dave, and Pooky all come to mind.

Im also happy to have met the newer players on this roster as well. Lav's protects where really accurate this game.

Also Gamma, it was a pleasure as always. Really glad that we could win togather. I was worried near the end there that you and pisskop were going for a solo win after all. Sorry about that.

[Grendel]

Wow, it looks like cult really could recruit from the grave. That's interesting :0

[Grendel]

i'll put my MVP to Grendel for coming back on site, 200 plus pages into a game, and actively trying to work it out and solve.

@TPhanie, you can see it in the DT. You had everything figured out. And then got dissuaded. Thought you'd have an aneurysm

Ahhhhhh, thank you! Very nice of you to say!

really if it weren't for our 1v1 resulting in your flip, i might never got the town cred required to draw a nk. So thank you for that! Also congratulations on your win.

[Grendel]

I wasn’t explicitly trying to solo but the goal was just to WIN after having claimed everything. Third time was apparently the charm on townsiding as 3p while having my cards face-up. I’m just glad I was able to legitimately townside in the end, as a solo victory wouldn’t have the same validation level.

cult played very well, and definitely earned their win! You, pisskop, and no power all did great.

Im glad you got a 3rd win under belt.