remind me to post about the setup there once the actual flip happens because I have thoughts on the validity of day roles
also I specced that from 4p, it was pretty tight and I feel like I would've made the wrong call in 3p based on you and kyouko's last posts
main reason why im so skeptical of this interaction between titus/math where math is shielded by titus (?) while titus knows the very last time before this game they were town against scum!math she got pocketed to no end and manipulated to take me down with her
This is actually fair and a valid criticism...to a point.
Just because I read Math wrong before, it doesn't invalidate what I am seeing. It makes any meta argument less persuasive but I'm largely not townreading Math by meta.
Second, I have been fooled by you before too which is, under your logic, grounds to be suspicious of you.
Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:01 pm
by MathBlade
I think tbh if it was normalized the way I think it should have been it would have never gotten to 4p. I can react well when I have time but I am horrible when it has to be immediate. Both Calculasia and that game had that problem.
I just have a rare scum loss now
Sad Mathy gonna play more Humankind.
Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:01 pm
by MathBlade
In post 2203, MathBlade wrote:I think tbh if it was normalized the way I think it should have been it would have never gotten to 3p. I can react well when I have time but I am horrible when it has to be immediate. Both Calculasia and that game had that problem.
Gonna be doing some reading, but also just gonna be around if anyone has anything for me
Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:05 pm
by Lukewarm
I have iso'ed Alch now.
Spoiler:
Alch’s opening pinged me quite a bit because of the being very buddy buddy, but he later mentioned that this was his first game in a long time, so ehh
Alch’s early interaction with Umlaut does not stop them from being partners imo. It is pressure on him, but it is not the kind of thing that would ever have gotten umlaut eliminated, so does not really look like it could not come from partners.
47 pings me - but in a way that I am finding hard to articulate. The line about looking for pocket attempts on page 2 feels strange. He also undercuts his own earlier comments about umlaut here, making the earlier stuff even less anti-partner then before.
114 - His theory on Seanzie feels like some convoluted logic. Possibly trying to come up with ways to look like he is sorting? I would need to look at other games to know if it was +scum for him.
Looking at his iso, as opposed to in the main thread, I am seeing Meg’s point on him more (314). There are lots of posts, but his iso feels a bit empty? Like I am not seeing anything being said with any feeling of conviction, and there is a decent amount of what looks just like busy work.
Like, asking other people to explain their reads, while not having a ton of reads with explanations behind them himself. Would be interested in looking at his past games for the tone thing. (not to self for latter)
Digging at T3’s softs could be pr hunting, but… it is actually pretty blatant if it is. I thing scum would try to be more subtle about it?
465 - I am back at the lack of conviction thing… Like, I cannot remember the last post he made about flubber being scummy, or scum casing them, or asking them questions. But he is just sitting on that wagon. Ngl, it feels like scum sitting on a wagon, but not wanting to be the leading voice on it (note to self, really, really meta dive this)
527 - omg. Math asks him why he isn’t pushing that idea, and his response is “I did push that back in post 47” 47??
665 - This feels like an interesting place to jump off the flubber/prism wagon, and for an odd reason. Like he has been camped on that slot for a case he made in post 47, but my 658 is what does it for him to leave?
Pointed out by someone else, day 2 he was sitting with me on the chaos counter wagon to umlaut, while also calling umlaut scummy. In a chaos scum world, I don’t think that Alch ever makes this play. In a chaos town world, maybe?
-----
That is not to say that everything was scummy in the iso. Frankly, most of the iso was pretty benign. A couple things that stood out as +town to me were
There were a few places that our thinking aligned, with chaos day 1, and then we had near identical reactions to the chaos pr claim.
1183 seems like a town post. Like, we are not supposed to speculate on replacements, but here he did it to town lock a slot I also think is town, so, weird place to push out on when he could have just, not said this
He is defending me, which feels nice x.x
On a look back, I can kind of see a progression on me, so it is a little less alarming. I think that this is also part of that lack of conviction thing from day 1. Even though he made posts that implied a town read building up on me, he was not very loud about it, so I did not even know it was there until suddenly he was defending me
-----
There is very suddenly a lot of conviction on Chaos day 3. Which looking through his iso, stands out a lot, because there was so little conviction on anything prior to that x.x
Is this the place where scum!Alch finally decides to change his style, and lead the miselim on a claimed pr?
All in all, I can see scum Alch.
There is nothing there that stands out as particularly townie, and on a basic level, the lack of conviction stuff would be +scum. Leaving options open and avoiding being tied to miselims. But I kind of would want to meta him to make sure that that is not just alch's posting style / tone in general.
Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:11 pm
by Lukewarm
In post 1001, ChaosOmega wrote:
And skipping ahead a bit, I don't know what to make of 784. It seems like you're trying to kill wagon momentum on me, which doesn't really make sense at all for scum you to do. There is a bit of a weird defensive vibe like you need to justify moving from me to Meg, but I don't see why scum you just doesn't stay on me here. UNVOTE:
Just finished page 32, taking a break for a bit, but I feel a bit lost at this point.
I looked back for the last thing that Chaos said about me day 1, and I guess it makes more sense then I thought for him to not target me Night 1.
@Chaos, I am still interested in hearing what from day 1 lead to your decision to target Umlaut. I don't think answering that could reveal your role?
Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:33 pm
by Lukewarm
Doing an umlaut iso now, and ctrlF searching for other players names, to see if it looks like partners or no.
Vulture*
DkKoba
Spoiler:
ALL interactions / thoughts
In post 199, Umlaut wrote: I preliminarily like Vulture for town but there's not enough there for a strong read.
In post 330, Umlaut wrote:Chaos seems generally town to me but I'm putting him in the same "need to see more" department as Vulture.
In post 1033, Umlaut wrote:Sort of want to put my vote on Meg by PoE (I think Vulture and Chaos have both looked towny to me at various points) but I'd be lying if I said I had reasoning for that
Yeah... This looks like a partner to me.
-----
Alchemist21
In post 39, Alchemist21 wrote:Do you have a read on Seanzie's coyness? You entered the thread going straight for flubber and didn't really react to Seanzie's posts.
Not really. Coyness isn't really a tell, town and scum alike do that all the time.
The read itself... is not exactly impressing me but I don't expect much from a page 1 read.
In post 187, Aristeia wrote:Umlaut feels like he has purpose and direction that is going somewhere - he feels quite motivated to catch bad guys.
I absolutely disagree with this. Please provide evidence.
looks like I'm mindmelding w/ titus
Titus comes in and backs Flubbed up.
Flubber comes in and backs Titus up.
And both were for issues y’all were in the minority on. I don’t think 2 scum buddies would be this blatant with each other but it’s really feeling like at least one of you is scum.
VOTE: Flubber
Why Flubber over Titus? Just because he's leading?
Could be a partner interaction. Both of the last 2 could easily be light partner distancing, in a way that would not endanger Alch.
----
Gamma Emerald
Spoiler:
ALL interactions / thoughts
In post 330, Umlaut wrote: Need to think more about T3, Titus, Gamma.
In post 806, Umlaut wrote:Gamma, it seems like Math has already conceded the point that such a setup is unlikely-to-impossible, why (within the context of the game) do you need any more from him than that?
There is just too little here to really say anything about it.
-----
Datisi
Spoiler:
All interactions / thoughts
In post 199, Umlaut wrote:Datisi probably town. If anything I'm mildly paranoid about being buddied but that's not a behavior I would really expect from scum!Datisi toward me anyway (though my experience with scum!Datisi is limited so I'm really just guessing there).
In post 199, Umlaut wrote:If anything I'm mildly paranoid about being buddied but that's not a behavior I would really expect from scum!Datisi toward me anyway (though my experience with scum!Datisi is limited so I'm really just guessing there).
ok i'm gonna ask
why are you guessing that there?
Not totally sure, just gut I suppose. I guess I'd expect scum!Datisi to think of me as someone he can get away with scumreading since as far as I can recall you've been at least
somewhat worried about
my slot in pretty much every game we've ever played together.
Dats being Umlaut's stongest town read in his first semi-read list does not look like a partner imo
------
Seanzie*
MathBlade
Spoiler:
In post 36, Umlaut wrote:A non-ridiculous reading is "there is something in Alchemist's posts that Seanzie didn't like and he's being coy about what exactly" and not "posting = bad," and I have a hard time believing the latter is really what you thought he meant even for a second.
In post 39, Alchemist21 wrote:Do you have a read on Seanzie's coyness? You entered the thread going straight for flubber and didn't really react to Seanzie's posts.
Not really. Coyness isn't really a tell, town and scum alike do that all the time.
The read itself... is not exactly impressing me but I don't expect much from a page 1 read.
In post 42, Umlaut wrote:Why should I make any kind of post toward Seanzie? I read the thread, I saw Flubber joining a convenient wagon for disingenuous reasons, I voted him.
In post 735, Umlaut wrote:Ugh I need to play this game but now that I'm so far behind it's hard to get myself to do it
I like MathBlade's very active and engaged entry to the game but haven't really thought in detail about
what
he's saying
In post 1224, Umlaut wrote:Oh look I'm getting wagoned. I could jump on Chaos if it's him or me but I haven't seen any good reason to suspect him aside from "read this other game to see his meta" which I'm just not going to do.
In post 1212, MathBlade wrote:I really don’t like the fact me and a top scumread are both thinking it’s a weird kill so maybe it’s just not?
This is a very weird line of thought. Why on earth would someone else thinking it's a weird kill mean it isn't one, scumread or not? What exactly is the connection here?
The page 2 strong chain saw does not seem like something you actually do for a partner, especially not for the reasons flubber voted them. And then in post 40, that seems like an easy way to drop a town read on sean, and he chooses not to. Does not look like a partner to me.
-----
Aristeia
Spoiler:
In post 199, Umlaut wrote:Aristeia somwhat town too, just on tone and style; I like her coming in with an early readlist in 185, I like that she had immediate answers when asked to explain those reads, and honestly I don't see scum ever choosing to explain their top townread as "they're town because I would be sad if they're not."
He only has one post about her before he hits e-1. So, hard to really say? But gth, I would say that this is in response to ari giving him a town read just before that, not because she is his partner.
----
Titus
Spoiler:
In post 205, Umlaut wrote:Titus, what are you actually scumreading about me? The way you're picking that alone out of all Aristeia's reads, you must feel pretty strongly about it.
In post 237, Umlaut wrote:
Why Flubber over Titus? Just because he's leading?
In post 240, Umlaut wrote:So does "at least one of you is scum" just mean "...because Flubber is scum" or do you have a model of that exchange where Titus is scum and Flub is town?
Something about that phrase pings me, because I don't see how Flubber returning Titus' townread/mindmeld/etc. can possibly reflect badly on
her
.
In post 330, Umlaut wrote:Need to think more about T3, Titus, Gamma.
Give me the tl;dr on Chaos? (I realize this is kind of a silly phrasing given Chaos has all of 6 posts but you know what I mean)
That's the problem. Town Chaos is more leadery or tries to be.
I can only recall one game I've played with Chaos (years ago), and he was town in that game and was pretty much like this. Maybe his meta has changed though?
------
Does not look like partner interactions to me.
205 does not look partnery. The reach out in the 700s also looks like a proper reach out to her.
ChaosOmega**
Skipping
-----
Flubbernugget
Prism
Not_Mafia* Not doing all interactions for this one lol
Spoiler:
In post 330, Umlaut wrote:Going to be AFK at least until tomorrow sometime, but still occasionally skimming.
Chaos seems generally town to me but I'm putting him in the same "need to see more" department as Vulture. Somewhat good feelings about Luke as well, coming from his interactions with Datisi. Need to think more about T3, Titus, Gamma.
In post 36, Umlaut wrote:A non-ridiculous reading is "there is something in Alchemist's posts that Seanzie didn't like and he's being coy about what exactly" and not "posting = bad," and I have a hard time believing the latter is really what you thought he meant even for a second.
More votes on Flub plz
I don't see this being a partner. This very nearly killed flubber x.x
In post 2095, Lukewarm wrote:who do you want to kill if Chaos is off the table now?
Probably Koba or Alch atm
Accidentally quoted where I quoted before instead of the original
In post 2094, Aristeia wrote:who do you want to kill if Chaos is off the table now?
Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:42 pm
by Lukewarm
I feel like I have parsed through what Titus has been talking about this game. And understand why she has dats and math both as town for it.
I think that Titus must be town at this point for it, so I am with her on the Titus, Dats, Match all town front.
Outside of that angle, I have been feeling ari for town, and I have NotMafia townlocked after the umlaut flip
That leaves Gamma, Koba, and Alch. (ignoring chaos)
I have been vaguely thinking of him as town this game, but not really sure why. I need to do an iso dive on him, but that is not happening tonight.
So, poe, I am down to koba or alch for the day
Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:43 pm
by Lukewarm
In post 2214, Lukewarm wrote:I have been vaguely thinking of him as town this game, but not really sure why. I need to do an iso dive on him, but that is not happening tonight.
main reason why im so skeptical of this interaction between titus/math where math is shielded by titus (?) while titus knows the very last time before this game they were town against scum!math she got pocketed to no end and manipulated to take me down with her
This is actually fair and a valid criticism...to a point.
Just because I read Math wrong before, it doesn't invalidate what I am seeing. It makes any meta argument less persuasive but I'm largely not townreading Math by meta.
Second, I have been fooled by you before too which is, under your logic, grounds to be suspicious of you.
I'm tossing you several branches of logic that should tell you im town and you're intentionally swatting them aside in favor of maintaining this tunnel
main reason why im so skeptical of this interaction between titus/math where math is shielded by titus (?) while titus knows the very last time before this game they were town against scum!math she got pocketed to no end and manipulated to take me down with her
This is actually fair and a valid criticism...to a point.
Just because I read Math wrong before, it doesn't invalidate what I am seeing. It makes any meta argument less persuasive but I'm largely not townreading Math by meta.
Second, I have been fooled by you before too which is, under your logic, grounds to be suspicious of you.
I'm tossing you several branches of logic that should tell you im town and you're intentionally swatting them aside in favor of maintaining this tunnel
Tossing me a branch would be answering my questions.
Telling me I've been wrong in the past is just a fact, not sound logic.
Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2021 3:05 am
by Datisi
In post 1032, Umlaut wrote:I'm a bit lost and trying to find something intelligent to say, but I saw this
In post 1006, Lukewarm wrote:To be frank, when my top scum read decides to omgus scum read me back, I don't think it is all that beneficial for me to engage in a 1v1 with that person directly.
and found it absolutely hilarious given how my last game with Luke went
In post 1033, Umlaut wrote:Sort of want to put my vote on Meg by PoE (I think Vulture and Chaos have both looked towny to me at various points) but I'd be lying if I said I had reasoning for that
In post 1033, Umlaut wrote:Sort of want to put my vote on Meg by PoE (I think Vulture and Chaos have both looked towny to me at various points) but I'd be lying if I said I had reasoning for that
can you read meg iso and say what you think? there have been PLENTY points on why meg could be scum.
I'll do this in the next 24 hours, pls yell at me if I don't.
these are the last three posts from umlaut on d1, and they are made after the vc in 1025. and like. i'm not sure. vulture wagon did fall down a little bit when math had recently moved to meg, but both titus and prism were very vocal about meg being town. i feel like there was at least some danger in meg wagon collapsing and vulture picking up steam instead.
while i guess it's possible umlaut was preparing to jump on meg wagon if need be (1033) and was waiting to see if that will actually be necessary, that feels like a potentially worse outcome than just like. voting meg immedaitely?
still think this is somewhat +town for koba, but it's not as conclusive as i wanted it to be
main reason why im so skeptical of this interaction between titus/math where math is shielded by titus (?) while titus knows the very last time before this game they were town against scum!math she got pocketed to no end and manipulated to take me down with her
This is actually fair and a valid criticism...to a point.
Just because I read Math wrong before, it doesn't invalidate what I am seeing. It makes any meta argument less persuasive but I'm largely not townreading Math by meta.
Second, I have been fooled by you before too which is, under your logic, grounds to be suspicious of you.
I'm tossing you several branches of logic that should tell you im town and you're intentionally swatting them aside in favor of maintaining this tunnel
I just skimmed through your iso, and I think the only "branches of logic" I can find are:
-scum!koba would not stop the Chaos wagon, and
-Titus has a terrible read rate of you, so her scum reading you = your town.
Am I missing something else?
I looked back, and the first time you mentioned Chaos was in 1681, which was after he revealed he was a pr and dats quoted where he softed it the day before. Which, I don't think it is very convincing that scum!Koba would ever push a town!Chaos after the claim.
And I don't think that the second point is very convincing at all, since we also can try and sort you by virture of vulture (Titus tried to lead a wagon there day 1), and she appears to be somewhat poe'ing her way to you as well.
