removing folks who are a lot more likely to be eliminated than NKed atp {mcat, lld, gamma, megazu, dwlee???} + myself for obvious reasons (also i STILL feel like i kinda fit into the first category a little
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high nk equity: {unwnd, gork, pooky}
mid nk equity: {dannflor, house}
low nk equity: {kazyan}
between these categories haaallpp: {dwlee}
not NKs (elims): {mcat, lld, gamma, megazu}
of those in the high NK equity box, there's a few reasons i protected unwnd:
an aside:
i will protect gork or pooky 100% of the time if i think they're likely to be NK'd over anyone else. i'd rather clear them than see them die or whatever. but, frankly, i wouldn't shed a tear if either of them flipped. they're both active, and assertive, but they both fit in that earlier category i spoke about earlier where their read baseline formed much earlier in the day. i happen to know that i'm town so i'm aware that there's issues with
shea
the status quo PoE. i'm also noting that if LLD is town, scum are in a wonderful position to coast on the current thread tone and hope things shake out. MCat is similar to Navi. regardless of his alignment, the flip is underwhelming. that said i'd still like to hit scum so like,
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unwnd
unwnd and I found each other very very late on d1. this creates a couple of problems for scum: not to be too self-serving, but i am both a TPR and my reputation for lategame townplay is like, not bad? if inconsistent. so i'm a very good early miselim! the other side to unwnd finding me is that unwnd showed an ability to reconsider reads in a fairly significant way, and also make decisions which contradict the status quo. this is a sign of a player who is likely to be a long-term problem, if town.
Gorky
assuming he's town: our magnificent and beloved protagonist Gorkington (not ironic, you are great gork) is like. such an obvious nightkill via thread presence that there's no reason any scumteam shoots him unless they don't really believe in their ability to control narrative at any level. there's a few reasons why it's not worth making.
- given he showed signs of enforcing the status quo late d1, removing him means a lower % of living players are enforcing the status quo. a chaotic zeitgeist is scary for scum, and i think gork is currently like.. not predictable exactly? but has a fairly steady read trajectory and is hard to shake.
- if my assumption that i'm a high-equity miselim is correct: he isn't reevaluating his read on me, so removing him would remove another quiet yell of "roast duck!"
- via thread presence he's a rly obvious kill and in a theme that just looks like a magnet for protective roles.
Pooks
pooky is widely townread but fairly unlikely to actually be shot unless scum are just culling the herd. he could fall one bracket, but i spent a bit of time contemplating protecting him, so i've left him where he is. the decision i reached is that he's probably never actually going to be n1'd here because even if his reads *are* good, he has shown no ability to reevaluate. unless he fixes his trajectory fairly soon he's just going to continue to lose credibility. he spent the last few days of d1 drunkenly spamming about roast duck so i don't really think there's any chance he's sitting on some like, epic turnaround which scum didn't see coming.
if you can't work out why a player is in the high NK equity box, read this post again and then dispute it qualitatively rather than throwing questions at me, please. happy to field any other questions.
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