Mini 821 - A Death in the Family - Game Over
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- Flava Flave
- Flava Flave
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Flava Flave
- Goon
- Goon
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- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Santos, this is on us. We have to agree in order to win. I personally have gotten a town feel from Francis all game. I figured Sho must be scum, but I don't want to rush to conclusions. FTR, not that it matters, but Sho wasn't targeted last night. Hmm.
Something is telling me it's Francis and I'm pretty sure that's who you want to vote, Santos. Problem is, I'm gonna feel like a dumbass if I vote Francis and I was right about Sho this whole time.
What do you think?
Something is telling me it's Francis and I'm pretty sure that's who you want to vote, Santos. Problem is, I'm gonna feel like a dumbass if I vote Francis and I was right about Sho this whole time.
What do you think?
Town: 3-5
Scum: 1-2
3rd party: 2-0
For the sake of MMM's happiness and my own, my sig has been placed here in a more condensed way. I apologize for the old sig and promise to have changed my ways for the better. <3 MMM
Scum: 1-2
3rd party: 2-0
For the sake of MMM's happiness and my own, my sig has been placed here in a more condensed way. I apologize for the old sig and promise to have changed my ways for the better. <3 MMM
"It" is "the last scum" or "the person Santos wants to vote for"?Flava Flave wrote:Something is telling meit's Francis...
If you think I might be scum, what makes you think that?
I think I can make a case for why I should seem less likely than Sho to be Juls' scum buddy to you two. Mostly based on day 1. I've already presented an argument for the Juls-Sho scum team.
I feel like I should clarify why I've been ignoring Sho - I have nothing to convince him of, so I really don't care about what he claims to believe. Responding to
him
is useless. The only reason I would respond to the points he's raised against me is if either of you actually believe he's made a decent argument, hence the question in my last post.- Flava Flave
- Flava Flave
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Flava Flave
- Goon
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- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Santos
- Santos
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Santos
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: August 22, 2008
- Location: Santa Barbara
As for Day 1, I am thinking Sho because Francis couldn't give a crap about lynching someone so fast. Why?
If I were scum looking for scum, then I would probably look for a lurker on day 1 to target the first night. But since Day 1 ended so fast, it makes sense that scum had a harder choice of finding their scum partner at night because there was nothing to go on but random guesses Night 1.
That make sense?
That is why I am leaning towards Sho. Francis...extremely town in the beginning, unless you can prove me wrong, Flave.
If I were scum looking for scum, then I would probably look for a lurker on day 1 to target the first night. But since Day 1 ended so fast, it makes sense that scum had a harder choice of finding their scum partner at night because there was nothing to go on but random guesses Night 1.
That make sense?
That is why I am leaning towards Sho. Francis...extremely town in the beginning, unless you can prove me wrong, Flave.
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- Sho Minamimoto
- Sho Minamimoto
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Sho Minamimoto
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Your basically presenting an argument that I can't defend against.Santos wrote:As for Day 1, I am thinking Sho because Francis couldn't give a crap about lynching someone so fast. Why?
If I were scum looking for scum, then I would probably look for a lurker on day 1 to target the first night. But since Day 1 ended so fast, it makes sense that scum had a harder choice of finding their scum partner at night because there was nothing to go on but random guesses Night 1.
That make sense?
That is why I am leaning towards Sho. Francis...extremely town in the beginning, unless you can prove me wrong, Flave.
All I can say is "That is wifom" but nothing else can be said on the matter.
This is my latest masterpiece. I call it: "Myself!"
One mafia win and one mafia loss... CRUNCH! I'll add it to the heap!
One mafia win and one mafia loss... CRUNCH! I'll add it to the heap!
- Flava Flave
- Flava Flave
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Flava Flave
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- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Hmm. Well, you're right that Francis looked townie as hell early on. I think I made the mistake of keeping my early read and sticking with that and not paying enough attention to his later play. Sho hasn't really done anything scummy, but I labeled him as scum before by process of elimination.
Worth noting that if Sho is scum, it means no scum were on the Day 1 quicklynch. Francis was the first vote. Nothing scummy about that, but probability leans towards Francis being scum there. Day 2 shows Francis not voting at the time of the lynch with Sho and Juls both on the mislynch. On Day 3, we lynched scum in Juls. Sho was first on the lynch. Francis was 3rd. Juls was voting Sho.
If you look at Sho's vote, he basically follows my results with the conclusion that Juls is scum. Sho seems like an insightful player. Why not entertain the possibility that Juls is town who was targeted by scum? Then again, Sho uses percentages to show just how unlikely that is. He made the same assumption I did. But, if he's scum, of course he comes to that conclusion because Juls is a likely lynch anyway and he wants to look better by bussing.
Yeah, I'm really leaning Francis after a better look at this game.
You know what? I'm convinced.
Worth noting that if Sho is scum, it means no scum were on the Day 1 quicklynch. Francis was the first vote. Nothing scummy about that, but probability leans towards Francis being scum there. Day 2 shows Francis not voting at the time of the lynch with Sho and Juls both on the mislynch. On Day 3, we lynched scum in Juls. Sho was first on the lynch. Francis was 3rd. Juls was voting Sho.
If you look at Sho's vote, he basically follows my results with the conclusion that Juls is scum. Sho seems like an insightful player. Why not entertain the possibility that Juls is town who was targeted by scum? Then again, Sho uses percentages to show just how unlikely that is. He made the same assumption I did. But, if he's scum, of course he comes to that conclusion because Juls is a likely lynch anyway and he wants to look better by bussing.
Now I find this interesting. Looks like a "well, my scumbuddy is being lynched, might as well" followed by a statement that Raiv will be killed anyway. And Raiv was killed. I'm trying to WIFOM this, but I don't fully understand why Raiv, and not me, was killed. And Raiv could have possibly won us the game by targeting Francis or Sho now that I think about it.Francis wrote:Eh. I don't understand why our confirmed players don't want to no lynch, but I guess there isn't a huge difference anyway.
Vote: Juls
, there's no point in targeting Sho or me. Whichever of us is scum will just kill you anyway. PLEASE just protect Santos or Flava.Raivann
Yeah, I'm really leaning Francis after a better look at this game.
You know what? I'm convinced.
Vote Francis
Town: 3-5
Scum: 1-2
3rd party: 2-0
For the sake of MMM's happiness and my own, my sig has been placed here in a more condensed way. I apologize for the old sig and promise to have changed my ways for the better. <3 MMM
Scum: 1-2
3rd party: 2-0
For the sake of MMM's happiness and my own, my sig has been placed here in a more condensed way. I apologize for the old sig and promise to have changed my ways for the better. <3 MMM
"We interrupt this program for an important news break. The city has recently fallen a victim to a series of killings. Earlier this morning, Flava Flave and Santos were found dead in their homes. Both were part of a controversial investigation conducted by the Shreriff Artem.
The Sheriff was found in a pool of his own blood by his sergeant, who is currently under questioning by the Internal Affairs. According to the sergeant, the Sheriff was investigating possible connections to a recently deceased mafia lord. The investigation involved a series of suspects signing voluntary search warrants, which led to the arrest of Juls.
Juls has escaped her temporary cell in the sheriff's office, possibly with the help of her accomplice, Sho Minamimoto. Both are wanted by the police. The suspects are assumed to be armed and dangerous. Please call the number on the screen if you have any information that could lead to their capture."
The Sheriff was found in a pool of his own blood by his sergeant, who is currently under questioning by the Internal Affairs. According to the sergeant, the Sheriff was investigating possible connections to a recently deceased mafia lord. The investigation involved a series of suspects signing voluntary search warrants, which led to the arrest of Juls.
Juls has escaped her temporary cell in the sheriff's office, possibly with the help of her accomplice, Sho Minamimoto. Both are wanted by the police. The suspects are assumed to be armed and dangerous. Please call the number on the screen if you have any information that could lead to their capture."
Francis was a
townie
.Flava Flave and Santos have been endgamed.
Juls and Sho Minamimoto win the game for the
mafia team
.-----------------------------------------------------------
Role assignments:
Juls - Lone goon
Sho Minamimoto - Lone goon
Flava Flave - Weak Watcher
Raivann - Weak Doctor
Santos - Townie
Herodotus - Townie
Francis - Townie
Zilla - Townie
arelian - Townie
Juls knows that {arelian, Santos, Francis, Raivann} is town.
Sho knows that {Flava Flave, Herodotus, Francis, arelian} is town.
Lone goon kills are determined by die rolls. 5 or 6 yields a kill.
Night 1 targets
: Flava Flave -> Hero
Juls -> Hero (Die roll: 5)
Sho -> Santos (Die roll: 3)
Rivann -> Santos
To Juls I wrote:
"This is definitely not them", you think as you eye the stuffed animal collection sitting on Herodotus's dresser. "Damn!... Alright... let's get out of he--". Your thoughts are interrupted by the voice behind you: "Hey! Who are you supposed to be?". You slowly turn around, hand in your pocket, gripping the blade of a balanced knife. Herodotus, wearing Bugs-Bunny pajamas, was standing halfway down the hall. He raised a shaking finger: "You! You're one of those people in the sheriff's office!". A dark smirk comes across your face: "Am I now?". The blade flashes briefly in the moonlight and plunges into Herodotus's neck.
As you exit the building, wiping your knife on a handkerchief, you catch a brief glimpse of somebody sprinting off. Has somebody seen you?
To Flava I wrote:
Fear paralyzes you as you observe a dark stranger throw a blade across the room with deadly aim. Herodotus chokes and slowly collapses on the floor. You peel yourself away from the window. "Oh my god.... ", you think, "oh my god....". Your instincts take over and before you know it, you're running down the street, away from this horrible mess.
To Sho I wrote:
A fishtank, a vinyl record collection, an unfinished glass of milk on a coffee table. "No", you think standing over Santos, who passed out on a couch in front of the TV, "I doubt this guy ever killed anything bigger than a mosquito". You eye the wet spot of drool accumulating next to Santos's mouth and quietly make your exit.
To Raivann I wrote:
You peek inside Santos's living room window, only to find him peacefully napping on a couch. You glance at the sky. "Half an hour before sunset. Tops", you think and continue on your way to the sheriff's office. "I should grab some coffee on the way," you think and smile at the idea.
To Santos I wrote:
Something's wrong. You lay awake for a while and try to pinpoint the feeling. Something's definitely wrong. Then it hit you. Somebody's been at your house during the night. The clues are very subtle: a half-open drawer, a relocated book, a few other things out of place. Somebody's definitely been here while you were asleep. A shiver goes down your spine.
As you get up from the couch on which you dozed off, you think you hear footsteps on the gravel outside. You nervously make your way to the window and peek outside. Nothing. Feeling distraught, you start to get ready to head to the sheriff's office.
Night 2:
Juls -> Sho
Sho -> Juls
Flava -> Juls
Raivann -> Flava
Goons meet: http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/MfLbeh7kHxk4j
To Flava I wrote: You lean against a window and peer into Juls's living room. Inside, you see a dark figure standing by the door. You squint trying to make out the face but, alas, to no avail. The only thing you're sure of is that it's not Juls. Still shaking from the events of last night, you decide to not stick around to find out what's about to happen.
Back at your apartment: as you insert the key inside the lock, you think you hear footsteps behind you. Quickly turning around you see..... nothing.... You make an effort to calm yourself down and enter your apartment, giving one last look to the outside before closing the door.
To Raivann I wrote: "There he is. Alive and well...... and.... shaking?", a slight frown passes across your face as you watch Flava. "I wonder what's wrong...". You spend a few more minutes observing the nervous pacing of Flava and then wander off into the night, puzzled by what you've seen.
Night 3
Raivann -> Flava
Flava -> Sho
Sho -> Raivann
To Flava I wrote: You yawn. It's been eight hours of watching Sho's windows and.... nothing. Absolutely nothing. Nobody going in, nobody coming out. "God... I hope I can squeeze in a nap during another one of these boring meetings," you think and shuffle off into the morning sunrise.
----------------------------------------To Sho I wrote: Seeing Juls get cuffed and led away caused some rage in you, but you managed to calm down a bit. "Let the night come. I'll show them all... first this group of buffoons, then the fatty sheriff himself."
As you prepare for your night's deed, you get a glimpse of a shadow in the bushes outside. "Hmm...", you think. "Somebody's watching. I'll have to be careful about my exit". Dressed in black, head to toe, you manage to get access to the rooftop of your apartment complex and climb down a ladder on the back of the building.
Mod comments:
I really enjoyed watching the game. I was surprised that the mafia were not pushing for a Raivann lynch during Day 3. The setup did not favor "safe" mafia play, so I thought that fake-claiming vanilla made the game for the mafia harder than it would have been if they fake-claimed power roles and focused suspicion on Raivann, who was under much suspicion during Day 2, and possibly Flava Flave.
I'm looking forward to any feedback that you guys have about the setup. I will be working on an extended version, which will hopefully be run in Spring 2010 as a large themed.
Thanks for playing!
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The setup and game theory if you care:
Name:
A death in the familyPremise:
Two goons have been working for the same godfather, but they've never met. Now that the godfather is dead, it is their job to find each other amidst the town chaos.Set up:
9 players:
2 lone goons
1 weak watcher
1 weak doctor
5 townies
The roles:
(In other words, if night-target is a townie, there's a 33% chance of a kill. If the night-target is the second goon, both goons are notified and become a regular scum team.)- Each night you may choose to visit a player's house. If that player is the other goon, you meet, allowing the two of you to night-communicate from then on and all your future night-kills will have 100% chance of success (but you will only be able to submit 1 NK as a team). If the visited player is a townie, then there's a 33% chance that the player will spot you and you will have to kill them. (Your kill still has 33% chance of success if the other goon finds you the same night.)Lone goon
If your partner is lynched at any point in the game, you will stop your search and begin killing the townies (1 per night) to avenge your partner's death.
Based on your previous work, you know for certain that your partner is not one of {list of 4 randomly chosen townies}.
- You're a nosy individual. Each night you may choose to peek inside another player's house to see if they have a visitor. Unfortunately, you've never been good with names, so you are unable to identify the person visiting (if there is one). You may not target yourself.Weak Watcher
- Each night you may visit another player and if you find that player fatally wounded, you will be able to fix them up back to their feet. But you must be careful: coming face to face with a mafia member will result in your own death. You may not target yourself.Weak Doctor
- Each night you stay at home, do a crossword puzzle, read a chapter from your favorite novel and doze off to a well-deserved rest.Townie
Theory
:Probability of a nightkill with lone goons, assuming different night targets:
0 kills - 4/9
1 kill - 4/9
2 kills - 1/9
Expected number of kills per night with lone goons: 0*4/9 + 1*4/9 + 2*1/9 = 6/9 = 0.66, which is less than 1, giving the scum an incentive to find their partner.
If a goon targets another goon, they effectively forgo their NK for that night, lowering the expected number of kills. This is offset by a newly formed scum team which will have 100% chance of success from then on.
Game balance:
If the mafia act independently:
Day 1 - 2 mafia, 7 townies
Assume a mislynch, no successful doc protection
Day 2 -
a) 4/9 chance of 2 mafia, 6 townies (no NK)
b) 4/9 chance of 2 mafia, 5 townies (1 NK)
c) 1/9 chance of 2 mafia, 4 townies (2 NKs)
Assume a mislych in case of a) or b) and a no-lynch (best play for 2m-4t) in case of c), and no successful doc protection.
Day 3 -
a) i) 16/81 ~ 20% chance of 2 mafia, 5 townies (no NK on N1, no NK on N2)
a) ii) 16/81 ~ 20% chance of 2 mafia, 4 townies (no NK on N1, 1 NK on N2)
a) iii) 4/81 ~ 5% chance of 2 mafia, 3 townies (no NK on N1, 2 NK on N2)
b) i) 16/81 ~ 20% chance of 2 mafia, 4 townies (1 NK on N1, no NK on N2)
b) ii) 16/81 ~ 20% chance of 2 mafia, 3 townies (1 NK on N1, 1 NK on N2)
b) iii) 4/81 ~ 5% chance of 2 mafia, 2 townies (1 NK on N1, 2 NK on N2)
c) i) 4/81 ~ 5% chance of 2 mafia, 4 townies (2 NK on N1, no NK on N2)
c) ii) 4/81 ~ 5% chance of 2 mafia, 3 townies (2 NK on N1, 1 NK on N2)
c) iii) 1/81 ~ 1% chance of 2 mafia, 2 townie (2 NK on N1, 2 NK on N2)
Day 3 - Total
~20% chance of 2 mafia, 5 townies - Safe
~45% chance of 2 mafia, 4 townies - Soft LyLo
~30% chance of 2 mafia, 3 townies - LyLo
~5% chance of 2 mafia, 2 townies - Loss
In other words, assuming mislynches on the first two days and lone goons, the game has 75% chance of being in (soft) LyLo by Day 3. There's a 5% chance of the game not making it to Day 3, but that is offset by the 20% chance of LyLo being postponed for another day.
So, the expected length of the game before (soft) LyLo is:
4 * 0.2 + 3 * 0.75 + 2 * 0.05 = 0.8 + 2.25 + 0.1 = 3.15 days
which is slightly longer, but consistent with the normal pace of 9-player games.
Successful doc protection increases town's chances. (duh)
Weak watcher can be used to clear townies.
The goons finding each other turns the game into a regular 9-player game.
pepoel who spel bad and don't know grammer is jerks
As I told Artem, I should have claimed commuter but unfortunately I was the first to have to claim. So I had to play it safe. I suspected there was one more weak role so I didn't want to get into a CC scenario. Ah well.Artem wrote:The setup did not favor "safe" mafia play, so I thought that fake-claiming vanilla made the game for the mafia harder than it would have been if they fake-claimed power roles and focused suspicion on Raivann, who was under much suspicion during Day 2, and possibly Flava Flave.
That is a surprising outcome to me. Good job sho. I tried hard on the last day to make you guys not know if I was with Francis or Sho. I tried to attack both equally and seeing that Sho was first on my wagon might give him the slight edge to town.
I had also thought about switching to Francis the day that Santos hammered me. I was trying to wait until the day of deadline and switch, hope that Sho would switch and we would get a deadline lynch on Francis and be able to win in night. But not being able to communicate that to Sho made that very risky.
-------------------------------------
Juls
Juls
Thanks Artem. I liked the setup and had fun playing it.
Santos, I thought your play was great in day 2, but hammering like that without letting the player say something first is rarely good play in any situation.
Flava, I'm not sure why that particular quote convinced you of anything. It's not something I would have found compelling for another player. I think it should have seemed reasonable in the context of the rest of my play - I tried again and again to make it clear to Raivann that he should not target anyone other than you or Santos if we no lynched, so a Juls lynch was going to happen one way or another. I don't see why it would appear that I would
Raivann could not have cleared anyone else in night 2 against a competent goon. I considered not bringing night actions up at all on the chance that Sho or Juls wouldn't figure it out, but I didn't think it was worth the risk. I think it's always safest to assume that scum are going to take actions at night that are most likely to be beneficial to their faction and most harmful to the town.
Sho and Juls, well played. Your jobs became harder because of our power roles and, even though I was growing more suspicious of you two, they're the only reason I figured you out as a scum team when I did. You guys did really well to keep the game ambiguous to Raivann, Santos and Flava in day 2.
Sho, do you make arguments as town like you did against me? For the most part, what you raised were complete null-tells that you used very circumstantially. It makes sense since you were scum, but they really were poor arguments and made you look considerably more obvious to me.
Santos, I thought your play was great in day 2, but hammering like that without letting the player say something first is rarely good play in any situation.
Flava, I'm not sure why that particular quote convinced you of anything. It's not something I would have found compelling for another player. I think it should have seemed reasonable in the context of the rest of my play - I tried again and again to make it clear to Raivann that he should not target anyone other than you or Santos if we no lynched, so a Juls lynch was going to happen one way or another. I don't see why it would appear that I would
want
to delay Juls' lynch if I were scum. There was basically nothing to be gained for me, and I thought my posts would have made that clear.Raivann could not have cleared anyone else in night 2 against a competent goon. I considered not bringing night actions up at all on the chance that Sho or Juls wouldn't figure it out, but I didn't think it was worth the risk. I think it's always safest to assume that scum are going to take actions at night that are most likely to be beneficial to their faction and most harmful to the town.
Sho and Juls, well played. Your jobs became harder because of our power roles and, even though I was growing more suspicious of you two, they're the only reason I figured you out as a scum team when I did. You guys did really well to keep the game ambiguous to Raivann, Santos and Flava in day 2.
Sho, do you make arguments as town like you did against me? For the most part, what you raised were complete null-tells that you used very circumstantially. It makes sense since you were scum, but they really were poor arguments and made you look considerably more obvious to me.
- Flava Flave
- Flava Flave
-
Flava Flave
- Goon
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- Joined: April 11, 2009
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Sho Minamimoto
- Sho Minamimoto
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Sho Minamimoto
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 165
- Joined: July 9, 2009
- Location: Shibuya, Japan
Hm... to be honest, I did call the game the opposite and expted *I* would die. I had to alter plans because of the tracker report, but that is fine.Francis wrote: Sho, do you make arguments as town like you did against me? For the most part, what you raised were complete null-tells that you used very circumstantially. It makes sense since you were scum, but they really were poor arguments and made you look considerably more obvious to me.
Francis, as town or scum, my job once I was able to mathematically prove you and Juls were scum to me assuming I am town, I just threw everything and the kitchen sink at you to make it work. Plus, you nailed your coffin with the "no lynch" comment. I planned on bring it out, but just doing so randomly would do more hard than good. However, Flave found it, so all's well that ends well.
I will comment that this game was not a perfect play by me in the least, but it definitely ended in my favor. For the most part, I played as I would as town, but my choice of arguments were increased not by alignment, but by mathematical placement.
This is my latest masterpiece. I call it: "Myself!"
One mafia win and one mafia loss... CRUNCH! I'll add it to the heap!
One mafia win and one mafia loss... CRUNCH! I'll add it to the heap!
And with that, I now have 5 completed games on site.
I was loosely following along. I probably would have supported lynching Flav Flav (but not arelain) on day 2 or 3 for the D1 hammer and because his role looked dubious to me (especially as he stated that he targeted a dead player.)
I'm curious about how the forgetful watcher can help the town. If, for instance, I had survived Juls's targeting me, it's not clear that Flav's result would have been any more useful than it was, and it could have implicated me slightly. If he'd chosen someone who wasn't targeted, that wouldn't clear them, as they could have been their partner's second or third choice.
But still, I'm entertained by that D1 lynch. Does it belong in the records? It's also worth noting that only townies were on the wagon.
I was loosely following along. I probably would have supported lynching Flav Flav (but not arelain) on day 2 or 3 for the D1 hammer and because his role looked dubious to me (especially as he stated that he targeted a dead player.)
I'm curious about how the forgetful watcher can help the town. If, for instance, I had survived Juls's targeting me, it's not clear that Flav's result would have been any more useful than it was, and it could have implicated me slightly. If he'd chosen someone who wasn't targeted, that wouldn't clear them, as they could have been their partner's second or third choice.
But still, I'm entertained by that D1 lynch. Does it belong in the records? It's also worth noting that only townies were on the wagon.
For some reason, I missed this.Herodotus wrote: I'm curious about how the forgetful watcher can help the town. If, for instance, I had survived Juls's targeting me, it's not clear that Flav's result would have been any more useful than it was, and it could have implicated me slightly. If he'd chosen someone who wasn't targeted, that wouldn't clear them, as they could have been their partner's second or third choice.
The notes that are posted above are from the time when I designed the setup. Having seen it in action, I agree that the utility of a weak watcher is somewhat fuzzy. But it has some flexibility to be helpful, nevertheless. For example, the watcher can confirm a doctor claim.
pepoel who spel bad and don't know grammer is jerks