Mafiascum.net

It's naive to think that only bandwagon votes can be suspicious. That's not to say I didn't find the bandwagoning was suspicious - the bandwagoning is the most suspicious thing NS did - but I thought yessirree pretty much covered that part and I'm not going to repeat every argument he stated. Why would I? I prefaced my analysis of NS's vote on Rikablu with:

Bicephalous Bob wrote:Apart from some of the things yessirree quoted, this back and forth between him and NS is suspicious:

That's pretty straightforward, isn't it? I don't understand why you think I think his vote on Rikablu is the most suspicious thing he did. It's just another suspicious thing I thought was worth mentioning.

happy birthday by the way



i got you an inflatable crocodile

In post 290, DoctorPepper wrote:JK is kind of a parrot, M agreeing with him but most of what he says basically have been said by someone else. His reason for liking the Bob wagon seemed opportunistic, there's something about the wording of his reasons seems like "I doont think he slipped, but Im okay with lynching him".

What am I saying that others have already said. From very early on I've believed yessirree to be scum, and all he does is continue to be scummy. Given how completely scummy he's being, if he weren't scum I would think scum would be latching onto him at the moment. Given that that's not happening, it makes me even more certain he's scum. (I guess I could be said scum latching onto him which would void my theory, but fortunately for me I don't have that uncertainty getting in the way). So yeah... what am I parroting?
Also I understand how dodgy what Bob said, but it would almost be a policy lynch. I've played Resistance IRL before where people have done/said incredibly dumb stuff that all but incriminated them unless you give them the benefit of the doubt that they just did/said something dumb because people do that sometimes. Based on the rest of Bob's play, I don't see scum there, but I also understand the lynch because if he's still alive at the end it'll be hard to move past the 'slip'

In post 293, Bicephalous Bob wrote:I think it's pretty clear why we suspected CDB. My theory is that you chose to ignore it because it's similar to the behavior you displayed. You couldn't say: "CDB is town because I did the same thing and I'm town" or "yeah CDB is scum because he didn't post very much" without sounding like a hypocrite and fixing attention on yourself. The thing is, I don't think townsfolk would even considered if it'd make them sound suspicious.

This is total strawman. You're telling me what my mindset was, and then saying that mindset is scummy. I retract my previous "Bob hasn't done anything else dodgy" statement.

In post 297, yessiree wrote:Yo Bacde, if you've been scum-hunting since the start of the game and then some lurker goes like

"You've done absolute nothing of use"

how are you gonna response to that?

I lol'ed so hard I decided I'm not even gonna dignify with an answer.

You've provided about as much solid scumhunting as NS, and to be fair due to my absence probably myself. However, you're the only one who insists on posting with no content and saying "look how much I'm posting! That's what scumhunting is! I am the most useful, towniest townie in the history of time". Seriously, look at the post I've quoted. How about instead of defending yourself and saying we should lynch NS because he loses as town, you actually do something.

^It's post like this with so much attentional and interpretive bias that it's laughable

I'll consider your posts serious when the degree you examine evidence and the significance you assign to evidence aren't affected anymore.

Think about what you're gonna say, and put your money where your mouth is.

Ok, show me some scum hunting. Show me where you've looked for behaviour that is scummy then tried to investigate it at all. Go.

Fuck it, I wanted to avoid a wall, but w/e wall incoming.

Okay JKM, your answer was unexpected. Here, let me do some behavioral analysis so KING JKMatthews can deem my humble existence useful.

Sure, I brought up stats to push NS's case, but let me say it again: Stats is my bitch, it will be useful when I deem it to; and when it doesn't, I kick it to the side.


For the actual case, I suspect NS based on 3 main reasons.

1 - He shows no real effort to scum hunt
I don't care about his playstyle, I don't care how many games he's played, I don't care what kind of a player he is. But, these kind of posts are not helpful for town in any way

In post 61, Nobody Special wrote:

In post 55, gene1991 wrote:

In post 49, DoctorPepper wrote:Welcome Bob, what do you think of the gene wagon.

Sidenote, gene please get an avatar. It helps us distinguish you from everyone else. Like we'll know its you with out looking at your name

Kay. do you like it?

Yes. Nice ass.

In post 56, Bicephalous Bob wrote:

In post 49, DoctorPepper wrote:Welcome Bob, what do you think of the gene wagon.

The prospect of Gene being quiet is great,

but I don't think he's a member of the Mafia.

My vote on Channel is serious.

Why not?



Currently I'm comfortable with lynching either yessirree or gene. Not voting till I see a VC, though.

In post 69, Nobody Special wrote:yessirree, yes I have read your posts. If you promise to refrain from ever mentioning math or stats again, I promise to try and imagine you as town.

In post 110, Nobody Special wrote:

In post 107, gene1991 wrote: I don't think there's any such thing as scum slips.

Do you believe in Santa Claus?

The Easter Bunny?

The Tooth Fairy?

In post 182, Nobody Special wrote:You're doing it wrong.

2 - If the first suspicion is true, then my second suspicion holds more value. He will jump on the most popular bandwagon, and he will give 1 or 2 quick explanations to get by.

Take a look at post #274


3 - He makes no efforts whatsoever to defend himself, ever since I attempted to start a wagon on him. He has been posting in other sections of the forum, but he has made 0 posts in this thread.



Now, as for you JKMAtthews,

Regarding the NS case, you seem to have fallen to TWO Confirmation Biases:

1) Attentional Bias - This bias affects the degree to which you remember and examine evidence

2) Interpretive Bias - This bias affects the significance you assign to the evidence you examine


From the way you suspect my case on him

In post 285, JKMatthews wrote:Ok so had a quick read just now... how the hell is yessiree still alive after that NS vote?
yessiree's

entire

play has been
1) Here's some statistics for RVS
2) I agree that it's possible my activities are scummy, but anybody who thinks I'm scum because of it is using bad logic and is therefore scum
3) Vote NS because of statistics, and voting bad players is helpful for town because ???
If that's not scum, I don't know what is...

Your statement right here, screams scum.
If NS flips scum, you are his partner.

I haven't made posts here lately because I've been enjoying watching you make a complete fool of yourself. And you don't need my help to do it, either. Yay!

I rarely defend myself. Very rarely. Town have little need to defend themselves, as they should be scumhunting. Relatedly, I rarely defend myself as scum because -- wait for it -- I'm trying to look townish.

The Careful Reader will note that the above post is not in any way an alignment tell. yessiree, however, will jump on it and swear I just claimed scum.

See now you're stretching, because you initially only used stats to try to convince people that NS should be lynched.
Also, as the grandmaster of logic, you've made a pretty simple error. I've fallen to two confirmation biases have I? So you're saying from the outset that I'm coming into the game analysing it to try to find scum. Making me town. If I'm one of your top suspects, there's no way I be viewed as falling into logical fallacy as a basis for my interpretation of the game. I would simply be lying.

Secondly, my post that you quoted. That post has nothing to do with your vote being on NS. It's entirely about your playstyle. You're insanely overdefensive, and even in your post that is meant to be about scumhunting, you're largely concerned with clearing your name and discrediting those who suspect you.

NS - do you think yessiree is scum or just tunnelling you?

I'm pretty convinced he's scum based on a number of things: the statistics thing, the cockiness, the survivalist obsession, and the relentless tunneling of an experienced player.

So why no vote?

Because I had been focused on Bob until you asked.

Also, there are too many scummy players in this game. Makes choosing difficult, you know?

DAMMIT I GOT CAUGHT!

GOOD JOB GUYS!!!!!

VOTE: yessiree

Ouch yessiree, bad timing. Was about to join you on NS but then you went and did that. You're scum for sure. No pressure on you, so you make some ridiculous sarcastic bluff post? Die please.

Crap, I defended Bob

Fuck.

yessiree scum = Bob town. This is too easy...

No problem,

NS will win the game for me.

This should be an easy game ;D

Hmm, so it's NS and yessiree...

In post 306, Nobody Special wrote:I'm trying to look townish.

I SWEAR THIS IS A SCUMSLIP! I SWEAR!

So... anybody who posts without voting yessiree, I'd kinda like to know why...
Until then I don't think I have much to say!

VOTE: Yessiree

Bob has earned another day and Yessiree is scum.

Something slightly more in-depth later this afternoon.

In post 306, Nobody Special wrote:I rarely defend myself. Very rarely. Town have little need to defend themselves, as they should be scumhunting. Relatedly, I rarely defend myself as scum because -- wait for it -- I'm trying to look townish.

If townies don't refute claims on the invalidity of their arguments, we'll never find the scum. I mean, how can you be sure a hole in someone's logic is really a hole in someone's logic and not just a misinterpretation if the person isn't willing to defend his logic? It's as if I said: "I have an explanation for why I thought the townies' goal was survival, but I'm not going to give it because I'm town. However, you have no way of knowing that, because I'd do exactly the same if I was scum."

Until you explain your logic behind the bandwagoning and your vote on Rika, I say we found a hole in your logic.

JKMatthews wrote:So why no vote?

Nobody Special wrote:Because I had been focused on Bob until you asked.

Are you using tunneling as an excuse?

JKMatthews wrote:So... anybody who posts without voting yessiree, I'd kinda like to know why...

Granted, Nobody Special's posts are slightly less terrible than yessirree's recent ones, but NS played over 80 games. There's just no way he's trying to help town.

That whirlwind of posts from Yessiree...what.

I really don't understand what you're trying to do, from either perspective. The most constructive post I've seen from you in the last two days is 305, which...you immediately follow up with a self-vote. I'm more upset by the fact that you're self-voting after that debacle with Gene's slot earlier in the day than your post content (I'll be honest, I find a lot of 305 weak). The only reason I could see for you to set up a self-vote is to illicit a reaction, except I have no idea what that reaction's meant to reveal.

Are you trying to get town to tunnel vision on to you? Are you trying to find scum by how they jump the wagon? I feel like this is too strong of a gambit, because it requires finding scum in order to succeed. If you can't use the narrow window you've provided yourself to find scum on or off your wagon, based on their reaction to your self-vote, then you've died for very little reason. Presumably, it'd be easier to find scum in a difficult wagon to build than one built on the basis of 'wait he just voted himself that's scummy as hell'. Assuming that to be true, then you've essentially wasted the next day or two within Day 1 by focusing all attention on yourself rather than scum.

I will admit that seeing CDB jump on your self-vote after a period of silence is something. But as of this moment I don't think I can infer that action to be due to opportunistic scum CDB or lurker CDB reflexively voting self-voters. I lack evidence from the Gene wagon because he actually started the pile of votes, and then unvoted after Gene made some effort.


In regards to 305: Points of suspicion 1 and 3 I feel were sufficiently addressed previously in the game. NS is a particular kind of player. Labeling his as scummy is NOT what you do when his playstyle doesn't interact well with yours. After my question towards him (which I was surprised to find he answered extensively), I looked up more of his games. Just look at when he puts content down, and read in to why. His serious posts are there to acknowledge that the situation during that part of the Day is relevant. His posts (like 306) should inform you of how off-track your discussion has gone in regards to scumhunting. Adding in my perspective, your recent arguments with JKM haven't made him seem scummier in the slightest. The point's to look for scum, building up a player's towniness should only be a secondary action. Point number 3 was answered, repeatedly, during the Gene lynch: the point ISN'T to defend yourself. Your work, reads, and activity should speak for itself, barring significant tunneling disrupting town.


Something's come up in the middle of my posting, so here's what I've got for now. More will come later tonight when I have a stable 15 minutes.