Mafiascum.net

In post 297, Zyla wrote:In response to you directly, yes

well you managed to not actually respond to anything I brought up

why do you think xlos is scum?

pedit ok

My reasoning behind my scumread of Xlos (after getting it through my head that he's not a Mason)

In post 71, Xlos wrote:

In post 66, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 65, MixLixWix wrote:

In post 58, Xlos wrote:

Xlos's entire iso feels strange, especially when I saw that they have been on site since 2019 and did not appear to realize that RVS voting is a thing. But I checked, and this is actually their first game on site.

Which, for me, puts them into the same category as Wayward Son - the "I need to hear more from you so I can tell if your posts sound off because you are scum or just because you are new"

I knew what RVS is so you can bring your suspicion back with regards to that. That post in particular stood out cause Zyla was talking about switching up voting a scumbuddy. But as I see it, each phase builds off the last, with more and more evidence to support the votes. Right now I still feel like I'm still essentially in RVS since there's so little information to go on, but as time passes on the votes will become more real. I guess I can give my reads for right now, since I'm going to sleep soon.

Going straight from "Random is a terrible reason to vote for someone" as the reason to vote me to "That post stood out cause [..]" is a little odd, it seems like they voted for me randomly, and then when pushed came up with an actual reason. And while some people do that as town, I feel most town people would admit that that's what they were doing

So far I think the best observation is Lukewarm's observation on T3's post. It's not particularly convincing but it stands out among the crowd of meaninglessness. If T3 is scum, then I'll be convinced that Lukewarm is town.
Next in the list is MixLixWix, especially in the last few hours, his discussion starting skills have been really good. Though I hesitate to say how much town lean this gives him since the mafia can also be active, I think it is helping the thread move along so in any case it is pro-town and pro-fun behavior.
Everyone else is null, I need to look more.
And then most suspicious is T3 due to that observation by Lukewarm. I'll put my vote on him if needed, but for now I'm going to try poking more at the nulls.

This feels like distancing to me looking back.

In post 130, Xlos wrote:Dependencies:
Xlos mafia => Mix mafia
I'm not telling how I know this. Mix hasn't talked too much since the start of the day so I'd like to hear his thoughts on what is going on. So far he's sparked some discussion though.

This still doesn't read as a joke to me, it reads as Xlos breadcrumbing as mason. I think he wanted it to fly under the radar for a bit so that he could deny it if pressed, which he eventually did.

In post 173, Xlos wrote: It's gut reading man... given that I'm not a mason with T3, I can't imagine why the man doesn't want to say why he thinks anything. It's not like he'll be alive D2 to explain, or like we will gain any insight on what he meant by killing him if he does turns out to be town. Maybe he's just tired.

In post 161, T3 wrote: I slept well, thanks.

The mystery deepens...

After all, he's very specific in saying that T3 isn't his mason partner, not that he isn't a Mason, not that he isn't partnered with T3.

In post 282, Xlos wrote:Since T3 flipped Goon, we've got 50% odds to be in column C, and there isn't even a doctor for scum to worry about. And Roden was going down

hard

on Egix near the end...

Maybe this is just bad math, but for it to be 50% chance of column C, you would have to know at least one of the roles is in the game that can't be in the third column, which only PRs and mafia know.

In post 298, Egix96 wrote:

In post 224, Lukewarm wrote:I have the bulge as pretty hard town tbh

Are you willing to go into more detail on this? I'm asking because I don't think I'll be able to form an actual read on Bulge that isn't just PoE, otherwise.

A lot of it was from T3 / Wayward interactions

In post 37, T3 wrote:Bulge, what particularly stuck out to you about that? What stuck out to me was mostly that it was a brand newbie supposedly having read a bunch of games. This reads to me as if almost fake helpful and as if it was fed by a scumpartner.

Like here, the post that let me catch T3. I felt like this post from T3 was designed to goad a townie into leading the push against Wayward.

And then bulge very quickly joined my T3 meta push

In post 76, The Bulge wrote:T3 certainly does have a weird defense to the scum meta

In post 81, The Bulge wrote: If you'd like some

legal

meta, I just modded a large normal where scumT3 laid down some incredibly bizarre distancing tactics D1 before being eliminated that ultimately factored into his team's win. giving me similar vibes here.

Both agreeing with it, and providing more meta evidence on page 3.

Also, just looking at his iso, the way he is interacting with everyone really feels like he is trying to sort. All of the questions make seem genuine.

In post 298, Egix96 wrote:Also, to address something a bit more recent, I find it surprising that Luke "fully believe(s) that this was a genuine town-slip" (referring to 230) since, if someone is town, they need to check the nightkill to make sure they're not dead themself.

I did not TR wayward for the townslip. I already thought Wayward was town, so I believe the townslip was a genuine one.

What I was trying to get across to Xlos was that town slips are generally NAI. His comment made me think he was using it to give town cred to Wayward Son, which can be dangerous because scum can purposefully make them. However, I did not want Xlos to think that I was trying to get him to be more suspicious of Wayward this game, so I said that I believe it was a genuine town slip.

Basically, I was dropping a "for future games don't TR people over this, but I also TR this particular person anyways"

In post 298, Egix96 wrote:I was more expecting that people would pile on me first, with scum simply having to sit back and watch as I was falsely incriminated, rather than them having to take the initiative themself.

Scum saved you from that by killing Roden.

(And that does include you possibly having saved yourself)

votecount 2.2

Xlos (1) : Wayward Son
Egix96 (1) : Xlos
Zyla (1) : The Bulge

Not Voting (4) : Lukewarm - MixLixWix - Zyla - Egix96

Day 2 starts now and ends in (expired on 2021-06-07 02:10:35), with 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate someone

info

prodding MixLixWix

Flavor

Spoiler:

In post 299, Zyla wrote:I mean, the first was just saying that I didn't agree with Bulge that if someone else told them to read that it had to be the mafia, but we've already established that that isn't that important.

As for the second, I do regret bringing attention to it, since if it had been a breadcrumb I could've been bringing attention to the PR, which isn't the best plan.

And I completely misunderstood how everyone was reacting to it and thought the most people were in agreement with them being Masons, hence my being confused with the votes on Xlos happening that way.

By the way, my point wasn't that you brought it up, it was the you spotted it in the first place. I didn't, because I wasn't looking for town PRs. It was not until you commented that it could be more then a joke that I even realized it could be a pr slip

In post 301, Zyla wrote:This still doesn't read as a joke to me, it reads as Xlos breadcrumbing as mason. I think he wanted it to fly under the radar for a bit so that he could deny it if pressed, which he eventually did.

What would scum!Xlos gain from bread crumbing masons with Mix? Masons is a hard thing to fake claim if your supposed mason partner is not your scum partner, and they cannot both be scum at this point.

In post 301, Zyla wrote:After all, he's very specific in saying that T3 isn't his mason partner, not that he isn't a Mason, not that he isn't partnered with T3.

If anything, Xlos leaving that possibility open is a pro-town move. If Xlos is not a PR, but leaves people to think that he might be one, then it can draw the NK with is a good thing.

In post 301, Zyla wrote:Maybe this is just bad math, but for it to be 50% chance of column C, you would have to know at least one of the roles is in the game that can't be in the third column, which only PRs and mafia know.

I am having a hard time finding a solid threw line for your thought processes. Because, you have repeatedly pointed out the possibility of someone being a PR as a reason we should be careful assuming they are scum, but then you don't think the same thing here. What makes this pr chance different then the others?

I also have some questions about your interactions with the T3 push, but I feel like I am spamming the thread at this point

I'm not so sure about Zyla being it. It seems like Lukewarm and Bulge are suspecting her in part because they don't understand her logic, especially Bulge:

In post 276, The Bulge wrote:I wanna do this today
VOTE: Zyla

In post 253, Zyla wrote:

In post 213, Lukewarm wrote: Consider the other choices: Lukewarm who is as close to confirmed town as it gets, and me/Zyla who are suspected to be town power. I think that, to kill someone else, mafia would need to have something big to gain. And the only person who gains from killing Roden (and gains a lot) is Egix.

On the first level I can agree with you, but that assuming that the night kill was a direct action and not trying to frame someone else.

With the fact that a lot of people have been assuming a Mix-Los Mason team, killing someone outside of that could also be trying to raise doubt on whether or not they

are

both confirmed town members, since why would any Mafia member not go for a PR when possible? So if Egix stands to gain, so does someone who's gone up against the two.
Reading back through, the only thing that Mix and Xlos have agreed on with solid reads was that Wayward Son seemed scummy, and the only other person who had a solid read on him was Roden, who said he was scummy.

So

@ Wayward Son

As far as I can tell,

you

have the most to gain from this particular night kill, as you took out someone who was onto you, and raised suspicion on your other two opponents in the process. You also started a bandwagon way too early rather than wait for more discussion on it. So when you get back I'd really like to hear what you have to say.

what makes you so sure Wayward isn't the one being framed? how can you go from "just because Egix gains the most from this kill doesn't mean he's scum" to "Wayward actually gains the most from this kill, so he's scum" in the same post?

there are other logical fallacies and big headscratchers in this post but the above is all I care about atm.

In post 255, Zyla wrote:

In post 251, Xlos wrote: Mix-los XD I will claim that I am not a mason, I think I've made it obvious by not knowing who my partner is.

Good to know, but I will have to re-read to get a new read on you and mix now

did mix's 162 not already tip you off or at least make you reconsider?

In post 273, Zyla wrote:Anyway, I don't think I've read said much about my reads yet, so

Currently, Luke is my main TR, Bulge seems to be leaning in that direction, but honestly hasn't posted that much yet, so mostly null.
I've been liking Egix for town, but I do want to see what he says about having something to gain from the NK.
Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them
Wayward and Xlos are both pretty high on my suspect list, but I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.

what do you mean by "mix has been hard for me to read"? havent you been assuming very strongly that mix is a mason since yesterday? when and why were you attempting to get a read on them?

also when and why did xlos suddenly shoot up your scumlist, and why didnt your independent scumread of him make you reconsider your mason theory earlier?

But with 1 player left, I don't think that the validity of the logic matters so much in detecting scum. Since they have nobody to protect besides themselves, there isn't much point in manipulating the logic to support a conclusion on someone to eliminate. Like a vanilla townie, they just need to focus on the fact they themselves don't want to be eliminated.

Now, this is of course not a totally correct story - they might want to choose the right player to vote out. But I guess I don't see too much benefit in her trying to get Wayward Son over Egix. Especially since WS doesn't seem to suspect her much.

In post 235, Wayward Son wrote:Zyla would have to be town, if I'm right.

I do think that the argument about her focusing too much on power roles is convincing. Though it's hard to say without any meta information.

Xlos what do you think about Zyla saying "Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them"

She has stated that she thought Mix was a mason with you starting in post 160, and did not realize that that was not true until 255.

So she claims to have believed Mix to be a mason for about about 3 irl days.

Her wording seems to indicate that she has thought they were hard to read this whole time, as opposed to something like "looking back over Mix, I don't know how to sort them" which makes sense given her prior read's basis supposedly just fell apart.

In post 313, Lukewarm wrote:Xlos what do you think about Zyla saying "Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them"

She has stated that she thought Mix was a mason with you starting in post 160, and did not realize that that was not true until 255.

I think that she was refering to the time she spent looking over Mix's posts since 255.

In post 255, Zyla wrote:

In post 251, Xlos wrote: Mix-los XD I will claim that I am not a mason, I think I've made it obvious by not knowing who my partner is.

Good to know, but I will have to re-read to get a new read on you and mix now

It doesn't strike me as too suspicious.

I would like to see what Wayward Son's and Mix's reads are at the present time. I may change my vote.

@Zyla, after I explained how to look at T3's games yourself, how many did you look over to decide that my meta case was not cherry picked?

In post 314, Xlos wrote:I would like to see what Wayward Son's and Mix's reads are at the present time. I may change my vote.

I really think it can't be anyone other than Zyla, with an off chance of Egix.

I still think Mix is town even though they haven't checked in. They did look at the thread today.

While rereading Mix's ISO, several things stood out concerning Zyla but it's all been discussed a few times.

@ Zyla If you're town, who do you think is framing you??? Personally I don't see anyone.

@ Zyla I had multiple pages open and somehow missed 301 until I read it in your ISO. Sorry.

Do you actually think Xlos is trying to frame you? I'm convinced Xlos isn't a Mason.

In post 311, Xlos wrote:I'm not so sure about Zyla being it. It seems like Lukewarm and Bulge are suspecting her in part because they don't understand her logic, especially Bulge:

@ Zyla This doesn't sound like someone trying to frame you.

I do want to say that I didn't care for 173, but mainly because it was defending T3 and I had scum read him by then.

The one thing I'm stuck on is the NK. Roden was defending Zyla Day 1, so why would she NK him. Unless it was just PR hunting?

Last post tonight, I promise.

@ Zyla In 253 the first quote is attributed to Luke, but he didn't say that. Do you know how that happened?

In post 304, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 298, Egix96 wrote:I was more expecting that people would pile on me first, with scum simply having to sit back and watch as I was falsely incriminated, rather than them having to take the initiative themself.

Scum saved you from that by killing Roden.

(And that does include you possibly having saved yourself)

I don't think you quite understand.
Roden was so convinced I was scum that he directly asked me to kill him.
So of course, once he dies, on the surface, it looks like I did it.

I could go off on a tangent about the whole dilemma of whether or not Alice kills Bob when he's utterly convined that Charlie is scum, but I'm sure you get the rest.

In post 298, Egix96 wrote:At start of day, this post was my main reason for having Wayward as town.
The problem I have now is that I'm feeling like my bar for gauging whether something is distancing or not may have been set too low, especially since IME it has not been too uncommon for scum to Omgus-vote their own buddies.
Also, to address something a bit more recent, I find it surprising that Luke "fully believe(s) that this was a genuine town-slip" (referring to 230) since, if someone is town, they need to check the nightkill to make sure they're not dead themself.

But to OMGUS vote a partner right off the bat and never let up would be some "nerves of steel" play with not a particularly high chance of success.

The Roden mistake was a lil embarrassing.