ye i know i'm just checking myself
i don't think i believe it because if i arrived at the conclusion it's probably wrong but atp
i think i wanna vote Amrun today and to hell with all?
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:27 am
by Iconeum
In post 3325, Datisi wrote:i think i wanna vote Amrun today and to hell with all?
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:27 am
by Datisi
fuck i gotta run rn
icon will you be back until deadline?
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:28 am
by Iconeum
if it's right, we get to repeat everything tomorrow because Bjingle is getting shot, probably
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:28 am
by Datisi
If.
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:28 am
by Iconeum
In post 3327, Datisi wrote:fuck i gotta run rn
icon will you be back until deadline?
I'm here for the next 2-3 hours
then weekend VLA
I will keep an eye on this game but there's absolutely no guarantees i'll be able to past those 2-3 hours
you have no idea how much i want this to be a townblock of ico/dats/menal
because we are looking to be lining up a vote on amrun here
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:24 am
by Datisi
I just want a game where the three of us share alignment
Tho I'm still not 100% on that rip
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:26 am
by Iconeum
In post 3335, Datisi wrote:I just want a game where the three of us share alignment
Tho I'm still not 100% on that rip
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:13 am
by Iconeum
Meanwhile I bring you live footage if Iconeum trying to solve this game:
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:16 am
by Amrun
@alimdia: why WOULDN’T you be thinking about teams here?
I don’t NORMALLY think about teams pre-flip. This is a very different situation - we are under the wire with very few people and team iterations left.
I think it’s ridiculous NOT to think about teams here.
I was mostly looking for interactions that disqualified people from being buddies, and I forgot about a few key ones from Menal. That’s REALLY important. If you read someone in a vacuum in this situation, it’s a dire mistake.
Your question about gamma over DW, of course I’d have voted gamma!! I just didn’t understand why you were considering DW so little after all the time spent harping on her?
FTR, I super resent anyone who is not scum that says reversing my reads in LyLo when there haven’t been any flips is scummy. Not re-evaluating in this situation is what’s scummy, and stupid to boot.
Whatever, you know, lynch me if you will. I’ve seen the writing on the wall for some time now, I just wouldn’t have been able to live with myself if I didn’t try really hard to save myself via figuring out who is actually scum.
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:31 am
by Iconeum
i mean at least *some* of you guys are faking this shit lol
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:32 am
by Menalque
okay here we go, it's finally done
Amrun case:
okay, so I've tried to split this into various parts where each bit explains what I think is scummy about the amrun progression with quotes from the game as illustration of the points
Creature:
so amrun's approach to creature is to begin by saying that as game goes on, he's likely to become easier to read and that he's a good option for sorting later
she also immediately tries to redivert any pressure from DW about an association onto creature instead of on her
and she's also conflict avoidant here in a weird way, considering her later progressions around DW -- she calls her push on amrun at first potentially NAI, but then moves into the SR on DW. more on this later tho
another thing here is I think there's a contradiction in familiarity here: she talks about "extremely typical" creature posts. I think that's the sort of read you make when you feel you have a good grasp on someone's meta, but when creature becoming substantially townier by the end of D1 is brought up to her on D2 she claims her meta is out of date and that I prob know better than she does
In post 281, Amrun wrote:He calls out creature for something and then commits the exact same offense very quickly by voting Iconeum, who is, IMO, lower hanging fruit than Creature.
Do you agree that AF had any sort of point against Creature though? Since you word it as an offense? I do see what you're saying about AF tbf
I do,
I just think scum would be more worried about how they appear and that Creature will sort himself as the game goes on.
In other words, Creature seems like he doesn’t gaf and was posting whatever popped into his mind and probably forgot about AF in that moment.
AF, on the other hand, seems to me like he cares how he comes off - a lot.
In post 285, Amrun wrote:In other words, I can very easily see AF’s posting as scum motivated; attempt to capitalize on obvious town mistakes, but place vote on most likely mislynch. Obviously that’s untrue if Ico ends up flipping scum. I’m null on him currently.
Also as I look at this it actually seems kind of perspective slippy? Like calling AFF out for capitalising on “obvious town mistakes” sounds a little too much like she knows they’re town, esp considering her null read on icon? Plus calling icon the most likely mislynch
This is exactly what I couldn't put my finger on when Amrun answered my questions last night. I think if you're going to label what Creature did as the "exact same offense" then you'd be scumreading him too regardless of who AF voted for. The more I think about it, AF seems more and more town and Amrun/Creature are looking more sus. There's been two instances of Amrun turning suspicion away from Creature, once when she voted almidia for his vote on Creature and then again in post 284. Like I'm having a hard time articulating it exactly but it seems to come from the perspective of someone who knows Creature's posts were kinda scummy, acknowledges it because she has to, but doesn't want to follow up on it.
VOTE: Amrun
This is a terrible post.
A) What Creature did and what AF are similar, but not exactly the same; even if they were exactly the same, it is absolutely fine to read people differently for doing the same thing.
I never found what Creature did scummy
; I found what AF did scummy because he supposedly thought what Creature did was scummy and then turned around and did it himself more egregiously.
B)
Creature’s posts are not scummy. They are extremely typical creature posts.
I think creature is more likely to flip town than scum, but creature has not received any significant pressure, so this part is nonsensical. I’m defending him from what? For what purpose? WHY would I, as scum, think Creature was scummy but not want to follow up on it? Why would I do that as town?
The only feasible response is that you think I am scum with creature.
Therefore, why wouldn’t you vote Creature? By your own logic, my scumminess is predicated upon this so-called avoidance of wanting to pursue him, therefore Creature should be flipped firs
t.
You seem to be an odd duck that matches to your own drummer, so I’m not sure yet that any of this is NAI.
However, it is still bad.
---
so we've gone from creature's posting being not scummy to creature being potentially scum -- why? bc creature expresses a SR on amrun and is now more dangerous to keep around or not as pocketable as previously thought
but despite this shifting on creature prob town, we still get another post about how creature will likely sort himself AND about how he'd be an excellent D1 lynch for scum -- given this, I would expect her to be resistant to a creature lynch even in the case of believing he was more likely on balance to flip scum than town
I think Creature will become obvious scum in time if he is scum. I wouldn’t cry at his lynch but if he IS town, I think it would be scum’s wet dream to lynch him day 1.
In post 716, GuiltyLion wrote:you also didn't really answer my question. I don't want why you think I could be scum, I want why you think I'm
more
likely scum than the non-entities or the people avoiding commenting on your wagon in any way whatsoever. I completely disagree that my vote did not advance the game and therefore I think your point about "dead weight" zone of my vote is kinda just sophist bs
I think there’s scum off the wagon too. At least one, probably two.
Right at this second my top pick for that would be creature
and/or alimdah.
then here we have more attempts to keep distance from the lynch, but couched in justifications
he's "higher than random chance of being scum" why? bc he's "being wilfully obstinate"
I don't think this is a plausible reason to SR creature given that he IS stubborn, and amrun has claimed meta with him at this point and KNOWS this and thinks that he's a slot who will resolve one way in the other the longer he's in the game
so why would you want to lynch him D1? bc him being stubborn is exactly what's a problem for amrun scum in that he would keep pushing her and being a thorn in her side throughout the game. I think this is also the start of a trend of amrun being down to lynch anyone who expresses doubt on her slot rather than considering very much if they're town that could be wrong
also the suggestion that he's ellitelling, but not followed up on
talks about potentially supporting ddl (which I think given everything else she said should have been a much better wagon fhpov but which she largely looked for reasons to avoid getting onto, despite then voting him D2)
Spoiler:
In post 800, Amrun wrote:I would lynch Creature today tbh. I think it’s not the most informational lynch but does have a
higher than random chance of being scum
so it’s ok with me.
---
In post 820, Amrun wrote:I’d also compromise on DDL. DDL is here and voting/talking at least,
whereas creature is being willfully obstinate.
And idk of ego boost or what but I felt slightly better about my last interaction with DDL.
---
In post 854, Amrun wrote:@GL: Because ew. Why would you ask for towncred like that? I was actually thinking you would improve on a red creature flip and now I don’t, because it reads like a bus.
@all:
Creature is posting elsewhere on site FWIW
P-edit:
I can be spiritually on DDL as well.
I’m willing to vote on that wagon.
then she gets onto creature here, and when creature starts to look town keeps finding excuses
instead of really engaging with the question of whether creature going hyperposty (definitely town indicative and identified as such by me, Pret, someone else I can't remember) she avoids it and makes a comment on creature/AFF
then reiterates that creature is her top preference when again I don't think this is consistent with her earlier opinions about his readability and willingness to do ddl
this is also relevant because she later shades me for not pushing ddl as hard as I pushed her, but this is sleight of hand to put the responsibility entirely on me. if she thought creature was self-resolving and that ddl was an equally good Lynch, why didn't she help me at all to get him done on D1 instead?
In post 1193, Pretentious wrote:Told you creature would post a lot once he got closer to being lynched
Has it made him appear more town? I’m not sure.
It has, however, made it clear that creature/af isn’t SvS.
---
In post 1209, Amrun wrote:I think I’d most like to lynch creature today.
after town!creature flip immediately gets to work on distancing herself from it, and pivoting into position to be on ddl
I think the bottom also could be fishing for a gun soft, suggesting a gun should claim it if it was a townvig
this doesn't really make sense to me as an intuitive judgement, that he may have been a townvig, as opposed to which scum!slot is likely to shoot Pret N1 (which is the thought process both SS and I had)
I think there's a lot of setting up on SS to be had here, and I think it's worrying re:icon that she pushes both datisi and SS who were in Sally's reads as scum but completely reverses that trend on icon -- will go into this in more depth in the icon section
In post 1450, GuiltyLion wrote:Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
That’s why?! That’s funny.
The more DogWatch posts, the more I tonally think she’s town, but I don’t really have anything to say about the posts she mentioned. Except
I agree that scum was pushing me
(somewhere, I need to analyze with new flips in mind);
and that Creature’s lynch was probably pretty safe and blend-y for scum
.
In post 1605, Amrun wrote:I just re-read the entirety of d1 hoping for new clarity.
I didn’t really get it, but it still wasn’t a total waste of time.
My scumread on texcat really firmed up.
DDL slot seems worse on review; his progression on me didn’t seem very natural.
I forgot he came into the game townreading me. I believe he inned for me and remembers my old glory days, but he may well have rolled scum here. It’s still relatively weaker than some other reads because it would have been easier to try and pocket me as scum in this way.
I feel better about Ico’s slot. The play is erratic but doesn’t seem scum motivated.
My townread on S_S slightly weakened; I felt minmeldy at post 1039, but 1052 feels a little bit like a perspective slip if Ico ever flips town. My townread on AF got a little murky but I don’t want to revisit that for now.
This would be more helpful if we could be sure this wasn’t a townvig, but Sal literally called for town to vig Pret upon creature townflip so... sigh
.
Sal’s reads are all ochem the place. I feel like the slots most likely to be threatened by him are: Iconeum, Datisi, and S_S. S_S he specifically said to be wary of on a Creature townflip. Other lesser threats would be DogWatch, DDL, and GL, though he changed stances there several times.
she also begins to discredit creature/his reads here, including what I think are pretty open misreps of his play which I called out at the time too
there's more positioning on SS too -- he goes into her Lynch pool but "not near the top of it" only to then be voted for next day, where she limps on gamma!slot and dats, not really advocating for either of them only to vote SS right after he becomes a viable mislynch
In post 1654, Amrun wrote:You aren’t making a genuine attempt to sort me at all, though. :/
I did, but didn't get very far. I'd rather trust Creature's attempt to sort you, at least for now.
Creature didn’t attempt to do shit, with anyone, which is why his dying reads were clearly a garbage pile on fire
. He couldn’t have been more disengaged with this game.
---
In post 1668, Amrun wrote:I do think he maintained those scumreads the best, but he also, by his own admission, “forgot” he scumread Aaron which put him under fire initially.
It’s creature, and a severely under engaged creature. Yes, he said those things, but he also said a LOT of other things.
And the LAST thing he said before he died was that Ico/Sal were scum together.
P-edit: Up until my re-read I had a fairly strong townread on you.
I don’t really care about the fact that you’re voting me - it could be anyone - but it’s severely damaging that townread because it’s so poorly reasoned for a player I understood to be extremely analytical. And you also casually dropped what turned out to be a blatant sheep in the middle of a good faith conversation with me. I assumed it came from the conversation, which isn’t scummy in and of itself, but like I said, you don’t seem to be internally consistent with yourself, which bothers me a lot.
I would drop you into my lynch pool for this, but you’re still not near the top of it
.
again, this doesn't seem to jive with her early comments regarding his meta where she was presenting as p familiar with him. also committing a personal scum tell of mine which is making excuses for being disengaged with the game
I think that while creature isn't entirely sortable on post count anymore, he is still broadly sortable by high post count as town -- it's just that lurk!creature can be either alignment
there's also the back off here -- "oopsie I guess you know him better my bad" -- so why not ask about these on D1 when Pret and I were *correctly* TRing creature and try to figure it out. again, how does this make sense as an approach to someone who you claim will be sortable as day goes on and who at least two people are expressing solid TRs on
Have you met Creature? I know enough to know that post count is meaningless for him.
I don’t really have a ton of experience with him so maybe I shouldn’t be talking like that, but, perhaps Creature and I have different definitions of “engaged,” too.
I myself have had a very difficult time engaging with this particular game, but I’m getting there.
My point is, though, that I try to take into account dead players’ reads, as referenced up thread, but I have never, ever been tempted to let them supplant my own reads. Not once.
In post 1857, Menalque wrote:so actually I did reread creature's ISO and I think he was very clearly engaged and trying to get reads on multiple players by the end of day
would you disagree with that assessment @amrun
He picked it up, yes,
but Creature is a high post rate player no matter what he’s playing. I find post count irrelevant.
I also think all his reads at the end when he “seemed” more engaged were really, really bad.
well no, I don't agree
I think that creature being lurky isn't really AI for him, but I've consistently only seen him put down big numbers as town with one exception
so I do think that him hyperposting 80 posts is certainly enough to not lynch him on D1 based on his meta and I think that scum would definitely want creature dead if they could plausibly mislynch him and no-one acknowledging that creature is a great mislynch for scum to get if possible is bad
why were his reads really bad?
In post 1965, Menalque wrote:I just disagree with 1939 tbh, I think that was creature playing normally and trying to sort
You likely have much more extensive experience with Creature, so you may well be right. However, I can only base my opinion off of my own experience, and that’s how I felt about it at the time.
And his reads were bad because I townread ALL of them.
Two are confirmed town (to me): sal, myself. The other two are icon and AF. Early game I agreed with the AF read (obviously) but now I TR AF. Iconeum I fairly strongly townread.
Time will tell, I guess.
final bit here, more shifting on SS and trying to get him to shift onto DW. I think this is similar to how she approached DW when she SR her. it's not really saying that she's town or trying to defend herself, just trying to redirect into saying basically "you're susp bc you should be going for this other person first"
Spoiler:
In post 2003, Amrun wrote:FWIW the giving up is not something I’d hang a scum case on. It’s just not going to dissuade me from voting there.
Also, S_S is bothering the shit out of me.
Creature scumread DogWatch. Your closest thing to a scumread is on DogWatch. There was a wagon on DogWatch. Why didn’t you at least poke the bear on it?
tex/gamma!slot:
the worrying thing here is I think there's been a consistent "oh, I have a SR here" regardless of what the slot has done until it was literally cleared today
but coupled with that, I don't think there's been a lot of actual interest in getting him lynched. I think this fits p much exactly with how I would expect scum to play around a slot that they're planning to bring to lylo -- keep shading, justify an eventual vote, but don't go hard on them before that point
also, NB: despite these posts she never votes him until D2, and also another pet scumtell of mine -- the accusation of lining up lynches, which is something I think scum actually quite rarely do but which I think town often sound like they're doing when considering pairings and scumteams
Spoiler:
In post 790, Amrun wrote:Ugh, don’t like texcat’s stance on me - if GL is indeed town, feels like lining up mislynches.
In post 790, Amrun wrote:Ugh, don’t like texcat’s stance on me - if GL is indeed town, feels like lining up mislynches.
But on the other hand if GL is lynched and flips town your lynch has basically lined itself up. It's not as though that sentiment expressed by texcat is unexpected; she's just the first to say it out loud.
A) that would be after we had an actual GL flip that was town, with real information
B)
texcat avoided giving a read at all so they don’t look bad either way
It’s gross.
@GL: yeah alimdiah’s vote there isn’t fantastic
so this is basically more just justification for the DW vote, but one thing I don't like about it is that in the catch-up is that the other slots get more explanation whereas tex gets just that her SR firmed up, but this isn't explained beyond the previous post going "I forgot how much I hated these tex posts", and also really firming up doesn't seem to fit for me with the fact that she was already calling tex as the most likely scum in her pool in 1576
Spoiler:
In post 1576, Amrun wrote:Right now I think lynching in {texcat, alimdia, DogWatch, DDL, Something_Smart, Iconeum} will yield at least 2 scum. Within that, I’d prefer texcat right at this minute. DogWatch is acceptable.
In post 787, texcat wrote:As I said when I voted him, I didn't like post 38 where he voted Datisi for pointing out that there were 3 scum. I originally thought this was just a RVS vote, but GL spent some time defending it as a serious vote. So it wasn't the actual vote that looked scummy to me, it was the way he continued to defend it as serious.
I think Amrun is town mostly based on the wagons. If GL were to flip town at some point, I'd definitely revisit Amrun.
DDL is pretty well stuck in the null column for me. I think he voted me at some point, so just my omgus instinct would move him over to slightly scummy. He's made more posts than I have, but has said less.
In post 790, Amrun wrote:Ugh, don’t like texcat’s stance on me - if GL is indeed town, feels like lining up mislynches.
I forgot how much I hated this series of texcat posts.
In post 1605, Amrun wrote:I just re-read the entirety of d1 hoping for new clarity.
I didn’t really get it, but it still wasn’t a total waste of time.
My scumread on texcat really firmed up
.
DDL slot seems worse on review; his progression on me didn’t seem very natural. I forgot he came into the game townreading me. I believe he inned for me and remembers my old glory days, but he may well have rolled scum here. It’s still relatively weaker than some other reads because it would have been easier to try and pocket me as scum in this way.
I feel better about Ico’s slot. The play is erratic but doesn’t seem scum motivated.
My townread on S_S slightly weakened; I felt minmeldy at post 1039, but 1052 feels a little bit like a perspective slip if Ico ever flips town. My townread on AF got a little murky but I don’t want to revisit that for now.
This would be more helpful if we could be sure this wasn’t a townvig, but Sal literally called for town to vig Pret upon creature townflip so... sigh.
Sal’s reads are all ochem the place. I feel like the slots most likely to be threatened by him are: Iconeum, Datisi, and S_S. S_S he specifically said to be wary of on a Creature townflip. Other lesser threats would be DogWatch, DDL, and GL, though he changed stances there several times.
here there's an effort to paint tex/gamma as active lurking or scummy lurking
but again, I don't think it's really coupled with an effort to pursue this, and that's worrying, because I think bringing a lurky slot to lylo is a solid scum play to get a game winning mislynch, and I think that most significantly, I don't really read tex as having been active lurking at all vs just not around
like there are 18 posts total in his iso, and I don't even think they're bad posts really? although that may be conf!bias from knowing now that the slot is conftown and I don't remember exactly how I felt about it earlier, but I don't think tex was screaming out scum at me or scummy lurking
there's some more distancing from it too -- "it's rare my top scumread is the lurkiest player but alas"
In post 1650, Amrun wrote:I keep expecting S_S to explain that naked vote on me, but nope. Just hangin out for presumably no reason.
I strongly townread GL now, fwiw. On day 1 I could not follow his train of thought in a genuine way. D2, with the realization that he was comparing it so specifically to high noon, I do.
Menalque, why are you categorizing DogWatch as a lurker? I don’t.
because she has the lowest posts of everyone in the game aside from alim and tex/gamma!slot
I just checked and she had only 3 more posts than alim at the time that you posted this and he hasn't posted in 3 days so my question back to you is why don't you think that's lurky?
Eh, she’s been present for every major game state IIRC. Whenever she posts, it’s content. Not everyone is a spammer. That aspect doesn’t bother me.
eh, I'll reread, I'd say she's had a very low thread presence imo which is lurky
do you consider lurky to be inherently scummy?
I guess it depends on your definition of lurking. If you’re simply comparing number of posts down a list, no.
I guess my answer is still no, either way, though.
I think lurking is inherently antitown, but it’s a behavior town frequently engage in too. I just recently tried to stop a mislynch in LUV (chronic lurker) upon replacing into a game because I think his play, while antitown, made most sense to be town motivated. (I was right, fwiw.)
For me, it depends on HOW a player is lurking. What junctures do they choose to pop in? What do they say, when they do?
A lurker probably has better than random chance at being scum, so I guess that kinda makes my answer yes, but... Context really does matter.
The shit texcat did, beetlejuicing and deliberately avoiding commitment on most major gamestate changes, THAT is lurking I find tremendously scummy.
Gamma’s, however, is NAI because he’s catching up so he’s in a grace period for me.
In post 1986, Amrun wrote:@Menalque: Part of it is that I keep waffling on my reads of other players, but I was internally discounting my read on tex for the same reason until I re-read day 1. In context, it came off as active lurking and the phrasing of his posts made me feel like he was avoiding associatives, and one that he was setting up mislynches, which I noted in thread.
It is rare that my top scumread is the lurkiest player, but alas... I’m in that sad position.
However, also voting DDL, etc etc
this is incongruous with what later happens regarding SS -- there is the point made that she would need convincing to lynch outside of gamma. I mean, you tell me -- does it look like any convincing at all was needed for her to jump onto SS here? she doesn't really talk about him at all in-between the two posts, ftr, just to say he's "still scum coasting". I think the order was probably interchangeable for her -- either do gamma D3 and push SS as the mislynch on D4 -- or, alternatively, do SS D3 then gamma D4, and I think it's that why she seems so wishy washy about who gets lynched despite claiming she'd need to be persuaded
I realize I shouldn’t be pointing this out because it makes you more likely to scumread me, but, I believe you’re town sooo... who is scum reading Ico? You said people are casually scumreading Ico but the ONLY person I can think of who does so is gamma. So I don’t understand your train of thought here at all.
Also don’t understand the buddy reads on S_S and me, but whatever, will cross that bridge when we get there, if we get there. I’ve never in my life seen scum openly sheep onto another scum with no wagon by following a dead player, and I don’t think I ever will.
then again, more "I'm fine with lynching gamma" but not really pushing it at all, and claims she's been trying to get him lynched but meeting loads of resistance -- I don't think this is true and I think it's evident in ISO. there's a lot of "yeah I guess gamma is scum" or "yeah tex is scummy" but never is there a concerted effort to actually get people on board with her reads or to get a lynch there. instead, she consistently expresses the read, then hops onto the flavour of the day wagon
In post 2172, alimdia wrote:If you're doubling down on said viewpoint, who is the scum on your wagons then?
In my opinion there is one OR MORE scum in {datisi, alimdia, DogWatch}. Datisi and DW were on both wagons, but I don’t truly care about that part. I have already been clear that in this I prefer datisi first.
In fact, I kinda feel like lynching datisi today >.>. But I need to catch up.
Why is alimdia in that bracket? And why am I suddenly lower than Gamma/S_S, especially if you aren't caught up?
Because looking at it in response to alimdia’s question, I realized you are in a sweet spot on both wagons where I’d expect scum to be. Alimdia is there for similar reasons, plus she’s saying such off the wall things that seem like stances, but actually don’t make any fucking sense at all.
Also, I reread my own reread post where NK analysis indicates you, datisi.
I’m still pretty happy lynching gamma/texcat too though.
Anyone in my previously published lynch pool would be fantastic but I became a little more confident in a scumread on you recently.
Amrun is accusing people (me and Gamma) of coasting while not asking any questions to us. That means she doesn't actually want us to contribute more if we're town so she can straighten out her read on us.
Complete BS. I had a whole back and forth with you and you provided NOTHING. N-OT-H-I-N-G
You clung to creatures read and argued semantics over it and explicitly absolved yourself of any responsibility for your read on me. What else is there to ask? You’re sidestepping responsibility so you can’t be blamed when it’s wrong.
Texcat isn’t here to ask questions to. Gamma is on page 9 and dragging out his catchup - I’ve had interaction with him too.
I’ve been trying to motivate content there with my vote and trying to drum up a wagon that has seen a shocking amount of resistance.
This post is total hot air BS.
looking back at her progression, I don't think this makes sense. why does it have to be me or datisi? why is she dismissing the idea of a gamma/alim/DW team here? which should be only marginally less plausible to her than a datisi or mena/gamma/alim team
also worrying regarding icon and being willing to "bet the game on town!him" but still not sure if this is partners or pocketing. I would lean partners overall I think, but I'm not locking that in. I think maybe the idea was just to hard pocket icon and get him to cast the game losing vote
In post 2472, Amrun wrote:I’m having tinfoil about Mena but more sure about Datisi and I don’t think they’re scum together? Plus menal has some mindmelding with me on this page alone.
I’ll bet the game in Iconeum town. Will never lynch there.
Completely supportive of claiming.
Want to talk about this tinfoil?
Also when you say more sure about datisi sure she’s scum or town?
Datisi is very likely scum out of the pool we have left. FMPOV it has to be you or datisi.
My tinfoil on you:
Out of this player list, I would pick you to NK Salamence20 and Pret on N1, easily. Also, I feel like you’d pick gun, and the high amount of bullets this game points to the gun-type players being scum. Also, I question your commitments to the lynches that you have pushed, in some ways.
In other ways, I had you as town for a reason and it’s fucking with my head.
I feel like it’s datisi/texcat/??? Alimdia?
inconsistencies (originally ddl vs DW but I feel like this is the more relevant issue)
DW makes a point about ddl and amrun goes "that's a good point" and hops right on. this seems odd to me given her earlier professed SR on DW -- admittedly, it was tempered with "I'm TRing her one tone" but it seems off to me that if one of your top SRs is pushing someone who isn't really in your top SRs (it's not like dw was pushing tex/gamma!slot) that you would hop on this uncritically vs evaluate whether the push was bad because it's coming from someone you don't trust
and it seems like that SR/concern around DW didn't go away based on her reaction in 2004 to DW being TR
In post 1747, GuiltyLion wrote:what I also think is weird having reflected on it more is DDL townreading Menalque, like, this dude was calling you scum all D1 and trying to get you lynched and you aren't suspicious of him in the slightest? really? I suggest I might switch to DDL and he decides to call me out while making no mention of Menalque?
I legit lol’d when I read this. So I just went and ISO’d DDL again and menal doesn’t even make an appearance in the entire ISO with the exception of one offhand comment that DDL likes him. It does seem extremely unrealistic to barely mention someone who’s been calling for your blood like two game days straight.
This is actually a good fucking point. Town getting shitpushed like that usually gets mad.
there's also another inconsistency here to do with creature. she made a whole big deal about how creature's reads were shit and off and he was disengaged, which I've gone into already as part of this case. so if your whole belief is that his reads are bad, why do you then encourage SS to follow up on DW partly bc of the fact that creature was SRing her too. idk, I can kind of see it in the sense of "if you believe in creature's reads you should be doing this thing too" but it makes more sense if you're saying to completely disregard his reads to suggest that other reasons to look at DW. although looking at this today this isn't as strong a point as the I was reading her in ISO last night, but I'll leave it in in case this is stronger than I now think it is
Spoiler:
In post 2003, Amrun wrote:FWIW the giving up is not something I’d hang a scum case on. It’s just not going to dissuade me from voting there.
Also, S_S is bothering the shit out of me.
Creature scumread DogWatch. Your closest thing to a scumread is on DogWatch. There was a wagon on DogWatch. Why didn’t you at least poke the bear on it?
I think she's really flip floppy on DW too, but not in a way that I think shows genuine reevaluation. I think she's SRing or TRing dw throughout the game based on whatever seems the most convenient to her
especially bad is that DW is her third top TR after herself and icon, but then she swings today into HARD SRing her
my explanation for this? I think she was planning to mislynch gamma today, and thought DW was the gun. when she realised it was the other way around, and game was off the table, she had to find an acceptable new compromise target. I think many of the weaknesses of DW's play are the same as gamma/tex's -- lurkiness, lack of charisma/strong connections with other players, which makes her probably the best lynch target. I think her other re-alignments today have also been more out of necessity than out of genuine changes in opinion. for instance, she's come around to seeing icon as possible scum now, but was willing to bet the game on him being town at start of day, and stuck by that all the way until conf!town bingle called icon his top lynch (which actually is another reason why I'm unsure about partners here, this is very political, and I think amrun bussing icon still prob gets her lynched tomorrow)
In post 1450, GuiltyLion wrote:Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
That’s why?! That’s funny.
The more DogWatch posts, the more I tonally think she’s town,
but I don’t really have anything to say about the posts she mentioned. Except I agree that scum was pushing me (somewhere, I need to analyze with new flips in mind); and that Creature’s lynch was probably pretty safe and blend-y for scum.
In post 1576, Amrun wrote:Right now I think lynching in {texcat, alimdia, DogWatch, DDL, Something_Smart, Iconeum} will yield at least 2 scum. Within that, I’d prefer texcat right at this minute.
In post 1650, Amrun wrote:I keep expecting S_S to explain that naked vote on me, but nope. Just hangin out for presumably no reason.
I strongly townread GL now, fwiw. On day 1 I could not follow his train of thought in a genuine way. D2, with the realization that he was comparing it so specifically to high noon, I do.
Menalque,
why are you categorizing DogWatch as a lurker? I don’t
.
because she has the lowest posts of everyone in the game aside from alim and tex/gamma!slot
I just checked and she had only 3 more posts than alim at the time that you posted this and he hasn't posted in 3 days so my question back to you is why don't you think that's lurky?
Eh, she’s been present for every major game state IIRC. Whenever she posts, it’s content. Not everyone is a spammer. That aspect doesn’t bother me.
In post 2484, Amrun wrote:Datisi is very likely scum out of the pool we have left. FMPOV it has to be you or datisi.
Why does it have to be one of us fypov and what exactly makes you think we're not possible partners?
and also your proposed massclaim order?
PoE. I mean, outside chance or DogWatch/alum/gamma but I just don’t think so.
And I guess my order would be Gamma - Datisi - alimdia - Menalque -
DogWatch
- Iconeum - myself
In post 2486, Menalque wrote:I mean you're not wrong that those are NKs that I think could come from scum!me
not commenting on the gun point until we figure out an order for massclaim
what makes you question my commitment to the lynches I've pushed?
and what were the reasons you had me as town?
Day 1 I felt like you were soft pushing DDL. You were hard pushing me, but dropped it - still don’t know if you TR me or what. You kinda sorta SR Ico but haven’t pushed it at all. I don’t have a sense of strong reads from you in general and that worries me.
I had you town from you tinfoiling people TR you for your “slip.” That seemed genuinely paranoid to me. Meh.
@alimdiah: I have explained my Ico TR several times now so I won’t re-invent the wheel. However, to add to it, the way he came into today treating my slot is not what I would see scum doing because I see myself as a mislynchable slot right now. Which is exactly why your soft SR on me and the way you went about it is scummy.
Icon:
I'm not gonna quote here bc I think others have covered this already since I started doing my own case. I'm just gonna leave my notes attached from when I was reading her in ISO:
"shifting read on him overtime, looks a lot like early doubts could be distancing – seems to get stronger over time for basically no reason, esp. as justifications given for strength seem to be related back to D1 a lot – only her initial read on him after rereading D1 wasn't locktowny like it is later when he comes under any pressure"
@bingle if you do want me to go through and try to find the quotes that supported this I can do so but it's a bit tricky with deadline pressure
"re-evaluating":
I'm not gonna quote here because fuck me I've been going for a long time, and I think it's clear from looking at the quotes in the spoiler above, but basically: today, she's made a big deal of her claims to be re-evaluating, so why are reads so similar to the ones she's pushed throughout the game, bar me? like she's pushing the exact same SRs she's had throughout the game, and kept the TRs pretty much the same. she wants DW (check), she wants alim (check) -- as I've said, I think the switch on me to dats makes sense given that datisi was I think more likely to vote me than I was to vote her, and also as I think she would have perceived me as more likely to fuck up a gamma mislynch than dats who seemed p down to lynch there pre-mass claim
I'm quite confident in amrun + alim at this point, but not sure on the final one
I guess I lean icon just for the hard TRs but it could be dats, although I just really doubt it. I think DW is town if I'm right about amrun!scum bc I don't think hard bussing here is good play and I do think amrun is a good scum player
misc:
she seemed very unconcerned about it when dats pointed out that if scum could shoot twice on N3 then they could win game there if they made correct shots
In post 2155, Datisi wrote:2 votes on, 3 scum, 5 to lynch, and since Gamma isn't really a TRed slot people might blindly follow. I'd rather not be risking some sorta qh.
So you think scum will openly out themselves just to pray they get 2 shots off tonight?
I think I’m good.
okay so she claimed N3 rose but there's still no way to know what others would have been likely to choose? whereas if scum and you know you can't make 2 shots that night, lack of worry about a quick hammer makes more sense. I don't really think dats reads as faked paranoia here either, even though I didn't agree at the time
also I think she's been trying to create the idea that she's a mislynch target all day, ever since 2509 even tho I really don't think she was that likely to be the lynch today coming into the day, and idk why town her would think that she was really when gamma was definitely the most likely lynch before the massclaim
In post 2484, Amrun wrote:Datisi is very likely scum out of the pool we have left. FMPOV it has to be you or datisi.
Why does it have to be one of us fypov and what exactly makes you think we're not possible partners?
and also your proposed massclaim order?
PoE. I mean, outside chance or DogWatch/alum/gamma but I just don’t think so.
And I guess my order would be Gamma - Datisi - alimdia - Menalque - DogWatch - Iconeum - myself
In post 2486, Menalque wrote:I mean you're not wrong that those are NKs that I think could come from scum!me
not commenting on the gun point until we figure out an order for massclaim
what makes you question my commitment to the lynches I've pushed?
and what were the reasons you had me as town?
Day 1 I felt like you were soft pushing DDL. You were hard pushing me, but dropped it - still don’t know if you TR me or what. You kinda sorta SR Ico but haven’t pushed it at all. I don’t have a sense of strong reads from you in general and that worries me.
I had you town from you tinfoiling people TR you for your “slip.” That seemed genuinely paranoid to me. Meh.
@alimdiah: I have explained my Ico TR several times now so I won’t re-invent the wheel. However, to add to it, the way he came into today treating my slot is not what I would see scum doing because I see myself as a mislynchable slot right now. Which is exactly why your soft SR on me and the way you went about it is scummy.
has generally misrepped me today, and then backed off it when called on it because she knows it won't stand up under scrutiny
In post 3076, Menalque wrote:Like I get having tonal reads and letting tone continue to influence you but unless you know someone really well it’s susp af to be mostly basing your read off “they sound frustrated differently” instead of what they’ve actually been doing in the game
Why is that suspect? You have only the most garbage of reasons to suspect anyone at all. All game you’ve been trying to drop Icon back into PoE for NOT ONE SINGLE REASON. Your push on me day 1 was literally better than your push here and it sucked then too.
I had a decent “case” on Datisi with pretty good reasons but now I don’t even think she’s scum.
This game sucks and town sucks and I suck. I’m over it. If I’m to be lynched in LyLo for extremely bad reasons, so be it. The game is half scum so we probably lose anyway. I deserve to lose for having such poor reads this game.
What the fuck are you even talking about amrun
“All game you’ve been trying to drop icon back into PoE”
Fucking WHERE
literally I was calling icon town until D3 at which point I straight dropped him into the PoE bc that’s how PoE fucking works
Also get the fuck outta here “most garbage of reasons”
What like “menalque feels frustrated differently” is such a solid reason and not at all obviously bullshit for the fact that fabricating a real scumread takes effort that you’re trying to get out of by AtEing all over the thread
I guess you’re right about the PoE thing. I just don’t like it bc icon is obvtown to me.
And oh yeah my reasons mostly suck too. Everything sucks this game.
I was trying to get icon to show me why he thinks you’re town, because I want to see what he says, since in that moment I trusted him most as town.
I fucking hate misreading in LyLo. It haunts me. I hate having poor reads in general and this game has just been the shits for me in that regard. That S_S townflip and then texcat slot being the gun really hurt my soul. Of course I would re-evaluate.
Menalque is scummy for saying it’s scummy to re-evaluate in this gamestate, in fact. Anyone who isn’t re-evaluating like him is probably scum.
Given that it’s LITERALLY GG if he’s lynched, what’s the scum!motivation in me defending him before there was any reason to suspect he was gun?
Idk, honestly, fair point. This is a dumpster fire etc etc.
In any case the lynch should be the one in everyone’s PoE, so probably DW anyway. I can see scumteams without you in them so that’s not where I was wanting the lynch to be. Hate. Life.
is good enough as scum that I'm not putting a lot of credence in her "oh I can't remember why I thought that" stuff. I think scum who are weaker often feel like they need to try to explain everything, and that then leads them into trouble bc the explanations have to be forced and they don't sound true. whereas just saying "eh idk I thought that at the time" is something that (1) does happen as town and (2) can't be easily spotted as obviously fabricated bullshit
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:32 am
by Iconeum
@amrun
how come you were townreading me so hard previously, but you still managed to come out with such a huge case on me?
those reasons were there before, while you were HARD townreading me?
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:36 am
by Iconeum
In post 3340, Menalque wrote:I guess I lean icon just for the hard TRs but it could be dats, although I just really doubt it. I think DW is town if I'm right about amrun!scum bc I don't think hard bussing here is good play and I do think amrun is a good scum player
didn't you say that scum!you would be going for the bus play and town credit tho?
why is it 'not good play' here to bus, according to you?
In post 2671, DogWatch wrote:If you’re the scummiest slot at lylo and you’re actually town, you do a hell of a lot more than gamma has to clear yourself in order to play to your wincon. What is really more likely:
- gamma is town that has given up and doesn’t give a shit if town loses
- gamma is scum who is trying to coast to a likely win
- gamma is scum whose team wants to bus him at lylo
I don’t think it’s the last one because why would scum prolong the game when they could just push a mislynch
?
why is this unlikely fypov? if scum don't feel like they're in a good position to get a mislynch today, why risk the game entirely by doubling down on your teammate being town instead of hard bussing them and going for the win in 5p lylo when you've got towncred for hard pushing scum?
In post 3011, Menalque wrote:It’s not worth going for the insta win if you’re setting a loss by burning all your towncred if it goes bad
In post 3230, Amrun wrote:We all need to ask ourselves who was left alive today, and why.
Are we the mislynch? Or the designated pusher/supporter of the mislynched? If so, who was the target?
Gamma was the target I think, which is harder since he was such an easy one, but to pretend backup plans didn’t exist is silly.
Mine is sooo easy... I was left alive to champion the gamma lynch, and to be a backup mislynch. Datisi was supportive of both of these lynches, so she fits. Menalque seems to fit this bill too, though less well.
Actually the one that stands out in this one is Ico. But alim/DW are just kinda .... there. Which means they’re probably scum.
This post screams town to me lol
Also been thinking about this, and this is exactly why I think menal is town. He opened the day by softly towning gamma, which is bleh for scum!menal to do.
I know I'm not dead because of the mislynch bait Ico meme, which isn't actually a meme but hard reality i just call it a meme to feel better
With a previous rose claim, I feel like scum could have been going for the town cred thinking they gamma lynch was inevitable. But.... it’s a good point actually. :c
yes, scum!me would have been going for the towncred instead of the win at start of day...
Menal, here are multiple instances of you saying it's better to buss today and get a better position to win later in the game
How is that consistent with
bc I don't think hard bussing here is good play
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:42 am
by Menalque
that's about 2.5 hours of work plus note taking & reading for like an hour last night so @bingle I'm gonna be fuckin pissed if you don't read all of it
final point is that I'm not persuaded by her catch ups/cases, which I think fit very much into the easy to do "pick out posts and drop comments on them" catch up strategy, which is (1) easy to do as scum and (2) looks like a lot more work than it actually is, partly because the visible quotes extend the length of the post substantially when you're reading it
I also think, and this is a general point, that reading someone when they're under high pressure is the worst possible time to do so, and that trying to make reads primarily on one game day is a Bad Move (tm) because the entire advantage of town is that you get to look through all of the moves and information from previous days as well as the day you're in to try and even the information disadvantage you have at the start of the game
that amrun's flips on her reads today seem to have been almost entirely based on what's been happening today, makes me feel very much like they're not real or surface level reads without much to them
ultimately, I just don't really see how amrun is town here. however, I think prob the best thing to do is to leave it bingleboi to make the call on where the lynch should be, but @icon if you're going to force the issue (bear in mind that if you're town and you don't vote today we lose by default if you take the whole weekend off on VLA as we won't have the votes to lynch scum) I would strongly prefer amrun for all the reasons above
@bingle, it's like I said -- I see your analysis and I can see icon as the partner, but I feel substantially more confident on amrun!scum than on icon!scum and would much prefer to go there. also, I think it's p clear this isn't bussing which leaves me as soft!conftown I think, and given that you're basically guaranteed to die tonight, having someone who's practically locktowned gives us the best possible chance tomorrow to get scum as it limits who can be pushed as a mislynch
In post 2671, DogWatch wrote:If you’re the scummiest slot at lylo and you’re actually town, you do a hell of a lot more than gamma has to clear yourself in order to play to your wincon. What is really more likely:
- gamma is town that has given up and doesn’t give a shit if town loses
- gamma is scum who is trying to coast to a likely win
- gamma is scum whose team wants to bus him at lylo
I don’t think it’s the last one because why would scum prolong the game when they could just push a mislynch
?
why is this unlikely fypov? if scum don't feel like they're in a good position to get a mislynch today, why risk the game entirely by doubling down on your teammate being town instead of hard bussing them and going for the win in 5p lylo when you've got towncred for hard pushing scum?
In post 3011, Menalque wrote:It’s not worth going for the insta win if you’re setting a loss by burning all your towncred if it goes bad
In post 3230, Amrun wrote:We all need to ask ourselves who was left alive today, and why.
Are we the mislynch? Or the designated pusher/supporter of the mislynched? If so, who was the target?
Gamma was the target I think, which is harder since he was such an easy one, but to pretend backup plans didn’t exist is silly.
Mine is sooo easy... I was left alive to champion the gamma lynch, and to be a backup mislynch. Datisi was supportive of both of these lynches, so she fits. Menalque seems to fit this bill too, though less well.
Actually the one that stands out in this one is Ico. But alim/DW are just kinda .... there. Which means they’re probably scum.
This post screams town to me lol
Also been thinking about this, and this is exactly why I think menal is town. He opened the day by softly towning gamma, which is bleh for scum!menal to do.
I know I'm not dead because of the mislynch bait Ico meme, which isn't actually a meme but hard reality i just call it a meme to feel better
With a previous rose claim, I feel like scum could have been going for the town cred thinking they gamma lynch was inevitable. But.... it’s a good point actually. :c
yes, scum!me would have been going for the towncred instead of the win at start of day...
Menal, here are multiple instances of you saying it's better to buss today and get a better position to win later in the game
How is that consistent with
bc I don't think hard bussing here is good play
you realise the third quote is sarcasm, right?
but basically I think the context is important
if you think scum is going down anyway, you might as well get an early hard bus in and hope that gives you the towncred you need to get one of the mislynchable slots done the next day
but if you get to a position where battle lines are being drawn and you're worried your whole team gets blown after your flip, you should be going for the insta-win bc you're probably losing anyway
I think at this point given the evidence for amrun!scum that we're more likely in the second scenario
how come you were townreading me so hard previously, but you still managed to come out with such a huge case on me?
those reasons were there before, while you were HARD townreading me?
I still want to TR you. :c I want to delay that decision until later.
The only real reason I picked you for team over datisi is associative tells.
I don’t want to lynch you today. I think one of DW/alimdia is much safer.
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:55 am
by Amrun
Ironically I agree with menal that today reads are less reliable sooooo. I have considered a lot of things. I would like to get an actual scumflip and be able to dig in more concretely.
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:56 am
by Iconeum
well fuck it then
i like your explanation and I think ur town because I agree that scum would just 'take the loss' on the gamma slot early this day and you were soft towning him at that stage
