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Post Post #350 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2009 9:21 am

Post by imaginality »

The best possible scenario for us is that both Ralph and David are cops. In that case, with Jack's gun pointing at Carmen, they'd have had no choice but to send their arrest knowing it would be blocked.


xofelf/Tom, Robin is right, we need to get the game moving. Please tell us who you saw visiting Bruce last night?

Top of the page vote count:
Robin has two votes (Mary Rose, David)
Nobody else is voting.
Six will finish sombody.
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Post Post #351 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2009 10:16 am

Post by TonyMontana »

There is the option that Carmen was smart enough to do what I did, and confirm with the Mod that she couldn't stop herself from getting killed by me.

In which case, having her submit the arrest would be a smart move.

If only Tina hadn't killed her, we would know, as her arrest would come before my kill.
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Post Post #352 (ISO) » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:57 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

TonyMontana wrote:There is the option that Carmen was smart enough to do what I did, and confirm with the Mod that she couldn't stop herself from getting killed by me.

In which case, having her submit the arrest would be a smart move.

If only Tina hadn't killed her, we would know, as her arrest would come before my kill.
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Post Post #353 (ISO) » Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:01 am

Post by Ground »

any other clue?

waiting for tom?
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Post Post #354 (ISO) » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:40 pm

Post by xofelf »

My most sincere apologies. My internet died this weekend so I could not post. But, Bruce was visited by none other than: Mary Rose, Eleanor, and a unspecified droid of Robin's. That is all the information I currently hold. Do with it what you will.
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Post Post #355 (ISO) » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:56 pm

Post by Snow_Bunny »

Well, he claimed. By turn: I targeted Bruce, with a protect action.
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Post Post #356 (ISO) » Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:15 pm

Post by imaginality »

Okay cool. So that confirms Mary Rose used her action, as did Tom (aside from the unlikely possibility that they're both scum).

The fact we didn't see an arrest made is a good reason to lynch one of Ralph or David, depending who we find scummier.

The possibility that Jack is scum is unlikely in my opinion, based on Jack's play, and I equally think it unlikely Carmen would've tried to make the arrest (if she had any doubts about whether vanillaising Jack would stop him killing her or not, she could have raised that during D1).

People whose night actions and/or alignments were confirmed, and by whom (this will be useful to refer back to on later days when considering possible scum pairings):

Mary Rose - seen by Tom
Robin - seen by Tom
Eleanor - seen by Tom
Tom - correctly stated if Mary Rose targeted Bruce
Bruce - alignment confirmed by Robin
Chloe - action confirmed by me
me - confirmed by being alive hence kidnapped David

Ralph - confirmed as blocked by me
David - confirmed as blocked by me

Jack - unconfirmed
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Post Post #357 (ISO) » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:59 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

Yes, it is right: if Carmen had doubts she would have prolly asked the Mod during D1; moreover she was a replacement, so perhaps she simply assumed we knew what we were doing...

Ralph, David, Bruce? Where the hell are you guys?
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Post Post #358 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:18 am

Post by Snow White »

Current status: Write ups.
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Cause they dont talk to me, and i dont wanna be talked to.
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Post Post #359 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:58 am

Post by Eldritch Lord »

The case for me and/or Ralph being scum makes sense. The problem is that beyond coming up with alternatives, there's really no defense. I sent in my night action as per the plan and was blocked -- there's no way for me to prove it.

So either the case is right, or we have very intelligent scum who saw a hole that I cannot. The Carmen alternative is another possibility. I think its necessary that we move forward in such a manner that clears or kills both Ralph and I tonight. Since according to the plan, we're the most likely scum.

My eye is still on Robin for Tina. Just a feeling really, and his reaction to my absence with a vote on him.

I'll have more to offer later today. I'm a bit busy at the moment. Sorry for the inactivity guys.
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Post Post #360 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:31 am

Post by Snow_Bunny »

Oh, my, does it hurts too much to put your gamename in your sig?
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In honor of Erika Furudo, my first scum win (Umineko Mafia).
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Post Post #361 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:03 am

Post by Ground »

i will do that later, snow bunny.. ;p
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Post Post #362 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:13 am

Post by Snow White »

Uhm.... quick starter point....
Eldritch wrote: I sent in my night action as per the plan and was blocked
Im still roleblocked if i didnt bother sending in an action? 0.o Oops. And yes i know thats slightly incrimanating admitting this but if i'd said no less then you'd all be none the wiser. And at this i think ive confused myself so ill just stfu now.

Review. and analysis


Wade was gansta.
Cops made no arrest last night.
Tina killed Camrel.

What i drew to note however was "Since you
cant
find the Cops" - the word "cant" implying that our only investigative role isnt gangsta this draws a bit of speculation on Robin.

Jack claims he is now vanilla. He says
Jack post 280 wrote: Carmel followed the plan
or to the same extent. But basically! He should have no info on whether or not Carmen did/did not follow a plan that may or may not have been benefical to us gangsta's.

Carmen/Jack scumpair? (This is just a quick note on my own behalf, i will not emy opinion of Jack DID change after the next few pages)

But i'd still like an explanation. [quote="Jack" that was a lie[/quote] I was surprised Jack at the time was not quizzed on this. Lies are in what way beneficial to the town? Its purposely distractful. Why lie claiming you have no idea on the matter and furthermore did the mod not contact you telling you you had/had not been vanillied?

@Robin. I share your disbelief that Tina has a secondary investigative role. This is no bastard game unless im mistaken?

At this point i've wrote that Jack should double check he is or is not vanillified.

If Jack is cop then we'll be able to note a stream of arrests no? Whereas is we stick to chains or even subchains i dont think it will be much of an issue.

@MaryRose. It is possible Jack was blocked and Carmen killed since apparently everyone's actions went through. (everyone who sent theirs in)

@Charles. Confirms she kidnapped me.

@Robin. You asked "Why would Tina kill cops?" Simple. The chances of her being hit are now reduced as she killed a cop last night. Tina is only one person. One fire shot from anyone could result in her death. Something she wouldnt want.... which makes me wonder.... why she wouldnt have snuffed Jack.... However i will at this point note my read on his is prodominantly pro gangsta which i'll provide reasons for as i go on.

@RObin there is nothing to suggest Tina
actually
wrote that note. It appears to be for flavour but there is nothing to prevent speculation and everything should be questioned do you not think?

@Robin. It appears you have misunderstood but what i
highly
dislike your twisting of words in regard to Mary Rose.
Robin sez MaryRose sez... wrote: "Tina wrote the note therefore she must have known that Carmen was a UC cop"

What MaryRose actually sez... wrote: So we can assume from that Tina has some way to know peoples alignment. Well i mean, It seems as if she was sure Carmen was a UC cop
Now while i agree the note may have been just for flavour MaryRose is entitled to interpret it as she sees fit and if you want to disband her cognitive thoughts then twisting her words is not how to go about it imho.

Ugh. Confusion over who Robin targetted. I went on a mad rant about not obeying the group chain and such yadda yadda ya. I got quite... angry so i wont post that rant up. haha.

@Mary Rose
MaryRose post 309 wrote: She probably didnt write that as it is but i believe she did leave a note to the mod to post
this leaves me baffled quite frankly. Why would you assume this? What are the chances, do you think, that Tina KNOWS our alignments?
Ill bare this in mind for future reference.

In accordance with MaryRose 310. I did not like Robins absymal backtracking as to who he didnt and did protect.

At this point i assumed Tina to be Robin atm. But I want a rebuttal to any questions I have before I conclude on that any further.

Specifically
Robin wrote: Cops have no skills that will help them find Tina
You sound so sure.

2 more pages en route with explanations for the David/Ralph scum thing. Haha. But i gots to be going home to write them up. Take care fair farer.

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Post Post #363 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:33 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

@Ralph: well, I already made my position clear on the delirant "message theory". Mary Rose had already made clear what her interpretation was, so I dun see how quoting her exact words out of the context can be any help.

@Ralph(II): More important is your point about me being "so sure" about cops' skills. Decide: do you think that I am Tina or do you think that I am a cop? At any rate, I just base myself on the rules. If the cops have hidden abilities, I think that the Mod sould have told us, without telling us what they are exactly. If he didn't, he is a bad Mod (which is possible, actually: too many rules have been explained after game started, for instance the killing order, the nature of roleblocking and so on).

@Mary Rose (origin of the message noise): one of my droids visited Bruce, this was confirmed. If I was Tina, how could I have investigated Bruce AND Carmen?

@David: your absence lasted way too long, so don't talk about me reacting to your absence. I realized that there is a good chance that either you or Ralph are prolly scum, I explained and motivated my tehory and I voted for one of you. I am ready to change my vote to Ralph if Ralph will look scummier.
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Post Post #364 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:45 am

Post by Snow_Bunny »

Snow White wrote: @MaryRose. It is possible Jack was blocked and Carmen killed since apparently everyone's actions went through. (everyone who sent theirs in)
Nop. That's not possible. Jack is unblockable. This means either Jack sent its killing to Carmen, or he did nothing.

@Mary Rose
MaryRose post 309 wrote: She probably didnt write that as it is but i believe she did leave a note to the mod to post
this leaves me baffled quite frankly. Why would you assume this? What are the chances, do you think, that Tina KNOWS our alignments?
Ill bare this in mind for future reference.
No, I don't think that. I assume she knew before hand Carmen was a cop (this is, Robin is Tina and he send his investigative droid to her).
lewarcher82 wrote: @Mary Rose (origin of the message noise): one of my droids visited Bruce, this was confirmed. If I was Tina, how could I have investigated Bruce AND Carmen?
You see, interesting thing. Tom did saw a droid of yours went to visit Bruce. But, we are not sure which droid it was. As Tina, you can use all of your actions in a single night (block, kill, droids), and the theory fits nicely. The only problem is, Bruce alignment. But, if Bruce is town, everything's good for you. If he's scum, then he won't counterclaim you as that would be just stupid. A good well-thought plan, I must say.

I strongly believe you are Tina. Period.
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Post Post #365 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:47 am

Post by TonyMontana »

Quick answers to what concerns me.
Snow White wrote:But i'd still like an explanation.
Jack wrote: that was a lie
I was surprised Jack at the time was not quizzed on this. Lies are in what way beneficial to the town? Its purposely distractful. Why lie claiming you have no idea on the matter and furthermore did the mod not contact you telling you you had/had not been vanillied?
I'm not quite sure why I lied initially. I made the decision to kill Carmen during night, as well as taking full responsibility for it. Tina killing Carmen, took me off guard. And I thought Robin was supposed to protect Carmen. I knee-jerked, then quickly realized that lying wasnt gonna do the town any good, so I immediatly recanted.
Snow White wrote:@MaryRose. It is possible Jack was blocked and Carmen killed since apparently everyone's actions went through. (everyone who sent theirs in)
I can't be blocked.
Snow White wrote:@Robin. You asked "Why would Tina kill cops?" Simple. The chances of her being hit are now reduced as she killed a cop last night. Tina is only one person. One fire shot from anyone could result in her death. Something she wouldnt want.... which makes me wonder.... why she wouldnt have snuffed Jack.... However i will at this point note my read on his is prodominantly pro gangsta which i'll provide reasons for as i go on.
Because I'm a one-shot, which was supposed to become vanilla last night, one way or the other. She most likely didn't know Carmen couldn't stop me, and certainly didn't realize that her killing Carmen would actually save my shot. (Why would she, it's quite unorthodox)

Tina took out Carmen for the same reason I tried to kill Carmen. Carmen's power was too scary in the hands of enemies.
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Post Post #366 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:16 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

I wish I could say that I respect this theory of yours, even if I am not Tina, but it is so based on a circular assumption... well, who cares. I used my useful skill, I gave you a clear, and I showed you two players one of which is most likely a UC (with a reasonment I had to repeat 3 times to have Sherlock Holmes get it). I now have only a killing droid, so I guess I am a disposable townie.

I just say this: Jack's analysis of why Tina killed Carmen seems definitely more reasonable than Mary's.

One last thing, if I understood correctly, Tina should have blocked someone, shouldnt she? So I guess I wait for the end of the reports and then I will try and analyze her situation. Perhaps some cop would have sent an arrest but was blocked, which would alter my theory on Ralph_OR_David.
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Post Post #367 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:32 am

Post by TonyMontana »

lewarcher82 wrote:I just say this: Jack's analysis of why Tina killed Carmen seems definitely more reasonable than Mary's.
This is because Jack can think like a killer. I have the mindset of a murderer. The instincts of an assassin. The sense of a cutthroat.

I think me needs to look over the plan again, to see what is possible.
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Post Post #368 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 1:30 pm

Post by Snow White »

Right guys! Sorry for the late late part deux but ive been using the rest of my day to be transformed into Snow White for tomorrows Halloween Ball. :D

and so to business

I really despised Eldritch's jump on the potential Robin bandwagon. While i dont necessarily believe Robin is the cop, im not positive on Robin being Tina yet.

@Eldritch. I'd like some elaboration on your vote instead of the unhelpful mumbo jumbo in post 316. Secondly. What do you think of MaryRose thus far? She is one of the most active in this game and you must have at this stage formed an opinion of her no?

@Robin you protected Tom. That is fair but i fail to see how you managed to confuse Carmen and Chloe. Two names that start with C yes, but have two very different sounds. Did you neglect the "love Carmen" after every post and frankly it was one of the more deadlier roles? Which we do owe Tina a thank you for disposing for us as it was as anti gangsta as Carmen was.

@Jack. Correct me if im wrong (like my preivious misinterpretation of your role. Thank you btw)But wasnt the general consensus yesterday for you was to take no action?

Mod publically verifies that Carmen was killed before having the opportunity to vanilla Jack.

@Robin. Confusing the two names that begin with C but sound very different is very much a sign of nervousness imho. Be it because you were potentially being framed or were caught out is up for discussion. But i DO like your train of thought on Dave, Jack and myself. Its logical so far as i can see. But as ive already had reservations of David and his predecessor egruntz(?) i would happily place a vote on him were it not for liking discussion.

But yet i worry. Because with the role of a UC cop. I would expect one more active than he. But notably he pops up whenever his name is mentioned.

I dont have much of a scum feel for Jack atm for the same reasons imaginality lists post 332.

So i am momentarily humouring the idea that Carmen did not send in the arrest. Why would she if she was meant to vanillie Jack? She would have used her ability as planned. As she could not have foreseen her own death.

Hm. The possiblity arises that there may be two Cops linking in the chain? One verifying the other but not really. Unfortunate bad luck but we will probably need a secondary chain with different links... if at all possible. If that makes sense?

Other than that i feel you have every right to put speculation to me and david. But since i know im true gangsta it is likely i will be voting David. Why do i not vote him now? Because i like conversation and i want to make sure im correct in what i am doing. Im nothing if not cautious.

Jacks 336 is a HUGE bowl of WIFOM. But even if he hadnt explained it it was something i was aware of. As scum though it is possible you are trying to gain the towns trust by being so honest but id rather not hang you for it. I think honesty is probably the damn best thing in a town mac.

@Jack. What are your thoughts on MaryRose and Robin?

@Robin
Robin post 334 wrote: are we sure he actually shot?
I think this is an impossible question to ask. Of course we're not sure, its as though your asking a rethorical question to let the thought linger in the mind. Disliked that quite frankly combined with the back paddling after being jibbed by Jack.
Robin wrote: If we are sure you shot, was just to clarify the situation. i personally think you are true gangsta but its no good if people think you are clear when you are not
Is this not some form of contradiction?

@Robin misquoting MaryRose caused me to have an upsurgence of SCUM SCUM SCUM. The way you phrased it made it appear definitive and that MaryRose had some sort of knowledge as to the workings of Tina's role. Which she may have, i wont discard it but twisting ones words which in my opinion is what you have done is not good.

You misunderstand me. I think that Tina may have SOME knowledge about cops. I am NOT humouring the idea of you being a cop. I dont see that. Right now i get a neutral vibe on you. Because of your theory of David and myself. It makes sense. I cant argue with it and if it helps catch Davidcop then i will applaude your efforts be you tina or gangsta. But i will decide what i think of you when i know what i think of you. I have not liked several of your actions. But this just maybe the way you play and sticking to your principles.
Robin wrote: am ready to change my vote to Ralph if Ralph will look scummier.
Is this a request? :D ah i kid.

@MaryRose. Why so sure Robin is Tina? You are essentially basing your theory on the note Tina left behind? 0.o

@Jack. I thought the plan was for you to take no action for the night. Thus admittedly you'd be in question with David and I but what prompted you to take action that you may have been hung for today. You did not (or were supposed to not) know Carmens alignment...

I do respect your truthfulness though. Its one of the things that make me happy to say out of everyone i think your the gangsta-est.

My bad on your one shot being unstoppable.

Hm. True. I didnt like Carmen's power either as a simple bus driver.

@Robin. Hm. Its possible Tina roleblocked a cop i guess... But what would the chances be hitting 2UC cops in one night? Hm. Lol. she coulda got lucky! But only she knows i guess... which is semi unnerving.

I'd like to hear more from David please and other inactives. lol. Like im one to talk! :D

Lastly. I think a secondary set of sub chains should be made up for tonight.... with different partners to yesterday so there are no interlinked cops who can potentially lie for each other.

Sorry for the lenght of the ride. Its normal for me in the first few times catching up. Im always slow to start. *sad face* and please no one take my questions as accusations for the most part they're open ended thoughts to get reads on people. So no need to get defensive like some people do do. hehe.

Fare thee well.
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Post Post #369 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:42 pm

Post by imaginality »

Lastly. I think a secondary set of sub chains should be made up for tonight.... with different partners to yesterday so there are no interlinked cops who can potentially lie for each other
This is a good point and something I'm thinking about. I already have a few ideas how we could do that.

Currently I'm thinking that we could go with something like:

We lynch David (I think he's more likely cop than Ralph, and I think we should lynch one of the two of them).

If David is cop:

Chloe targets me again.
Bruce protects someone. (if Bruce dies, that person is cop or Tina)
Eleanor befriends the same someone (if Bruce lives, the person is town, so it's good to have them in on future night chats as well).
Bruce and Eleanor discuss and decide who they are targeting in their night chat together.
Tom watches Jack.
Jack no-targets.
Ralph buses Bruce and Jack. (this should result in Tom actually watching Bruce).
I kidnap Robin and Mary Rose.
Robin tries to vig me (so she will know if I kidnap her or not)
Mary Rose targets me (so she will know if I kidnap her or not)

If David isn't cop:

Chloe targets me again.
Bruce protects someone. (if Bruce dies, that person is cop or Tina)
Eleanor befriends the same someone (if Bruce lives, the person is town, so it's good to have them in on future night chats as well).
Bruce and Eleanor discuss and decide who they are targeting in their night chat together.
Tom watches Bruce.
Jack no targets.
Ralph buses Bruce and Jack. (this should result in Tom actually watching Bruce).
I kidnap Robin and Ralph.
Robin tries to vig me (so she will know if I kidnap her or not)
Mary Rose targets Ralph (so if I'm blocked from kidnapping Ralph, Ralph may get vigged by her)


Thoughts?
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Post Post #370 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:53 pm

Post by Snow_Bunny »

Well, nice plan, but I'm not sure if the mod will tell me if I was RB'ed. And thus, if you are cop, you might be able to send an arrest if I protect you instead of killing you. A risk, but a possibility. And I'd prefer to explore everything before night arrives.
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Post Post #371 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 5:06 pm

Post by imaginality »

Easiest way to find out:

@Mod: would Mary Rose be informed if she were unable to perform her night action (due to being kidnapped)?


Negative.


I agree on exploring everything. Just wanting to put ideas out there already.

Just noticed an error in my above post. The second plan should be:

Chloe targets me again.
Bruce protects someone. (if Bruce dies, that person is cop or Tina)
Eleanor befriends the same someone (if Bruce lives, the person is town, so it's good to have them in on future night chats as well).
Bruce and Eleanor discuss and decide who they are targeting in their night chat together.
Tom watches Bruce.
Jack no targets.
Ralph targets no one.
I kidnap Mary Rose and Ralph.
Mary Rose targets me (so she will know if I kidnap her or not)
Robin tries to vig Ralph (so if I'm blocked from kidnapping Ralph, Ralph will get vigged by her)
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TonyMontana
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Post Post #372 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:27 pm

Post by TonyMontana »

imaginality wrote:Robin tries to vig Ralph (so if I'm blocked from kidnapping Ralph, Ralph will get vigged by her)
Wouldn't that just be giving Tina the option of an extra death?

I'm also not a fan of you keeping kidnapping ralph without him bussing
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Post Post #373 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:35 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

@Ralph: I think the picture you give in post #368 is very good... I can just answer a couple of things you wrote on my posts. About post #334: course it is impossible to answer the question, I just wanted everyone to see that a question existed. So the alleged contraddiction is no contraddiction: this game is based on logic, so I think whenever someone notices some logic detail he should tell it to everyone.
About confusing the names that begin with capital C I don't know what to say. I just confused them. :oops:

at the moment I agree on the plans, if we decide to do it, I am in. Still, exploring all options before we decide, as Mary suggests, is also a wise course of action.
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RUBIK'S CUBE MAFIA
won't take place. Mechanics too complicated. I will prolly give it a shot around Christmas.
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Post Post #374 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:38 pm

Post by imaginality »

Possibly, but with that plan, David flipped gangster so Ralph is almost certainly cop (assuming you're not), so him getting shot is probably a good thing for us anyhow. And we can't really make a plan that requires him to bus as an integral part of it if there's a good chance he won't follow the plan anyhow. But I guess we can tell him to bus Robin and Jack with the above plan as that shouldn't affect anything much.
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