Mafiascum.net

↑ Magua wrote:

↑ Yosarian2 wrote:No, of course it's not; it's actually worse to start a bad bandwagon in an AITP game then in a normal game. Just because some people don't understand how to play the game, doesn't make it a bad game.

I understand how to play the game just fine. I also understand how to play Dethy just fine. I've played fun games of Assassin in the Palace. I've played fun games of Dethy. Assassin in the Palace still has a breaking strategy that is not only unfun, but if followed gives the town a > 50% chance of winning based on EV, as does Dethy.

Deathy is broken. AITP is not.

The first thing is that the "breaking stratagy" you're talking about ("lynch non-kings at random without giving scum any information") isn't actually possible. If you're lynching non-kings, then the scum will get information in the process. And you're likely to do worse then random, since the scum can also start wagons.

Second problem is that the more days the game goes before the assassin gets lynched, the worse the odds for the town get. Lynching at random is just a bad idea when you can do better, and you can do better.

I think most people believe lynching swiftly without much thought is the optimal strategy, though. I haven't seen that game be played in any other way.

↑ Yosarian2 wrote:
The first thing is that the "breaking stratagy" you're talking about ("lynch non-kings at random without giving scum any information") isn't actually possible. If you're lynching non-kings, then the scum will get information in the process. And you're likely to do worse then random, since the scum can also start wagons.

It is possible. And yes, it gives information -- the information it gives is that the person who was lynched is not the King. 'Cause they're dead. This is not useful information to the Assassin.

The Assassin can start a wagon, and this acts like a second shot for the Assassin -- if he starts a wagon on the King, the town loses, since they won't go through with the lynch (loss), but then the Assassin knows who the King is and can shoot him (loss). This has less of an effect that you might think -- an assassin-started D1 wagon in a 9 player game is only 1/8 to be successful, whereas an assassin-started D5 wagon is 1/4 to be successful -- but there's a 5/7 chance (or thereabouts) that the assassin will be dead before D5. The math balances out surprisingly well.

(This is, however, the reason that any given person is only allowed to start one wagon. Anyone trying to start a second before everyone alive has started one gets lynched.)

Yosarian2 wrote:Second problem is that the more days the game goes before the assassin gets lynched, the worse the odds for the town get. Lynching at random is just a bad idea when you can do better, and you can do better.

The hypothesis isn't that the town can't do better than random lynching (hopefully, the town can; otherwise, we're all deluding ourselves here). The hypothesis is that the town has better than even odds simply *by* random lynching.

I'm not the math whiz that Llamarble is, so I fell back onto my strength: Monte Carlo simulations. You can download the code (executable is in the bin\debug directory) here. Source is included; it's C#.

It runs through however many games you want, with the following rules:

1) A random person who has not yet lynched is selected to be the lyncher. If everyone has lynched, that flag is reset and everyone can lynch again.
2) A random person is selected to be the lynchee. If the lyncher is not the Assassin, then the lynchee will not be the King.
3) If the King is lynched, Assassin wins.
4) If the Assassin is lynched, they take a shot at a random person that is not themselves. If it's the King, Assassin wins, if it's a Guard, town wins.
5) Otherwise, a Guard was lynched, and the game continues.

There is one other permutation, which I found interesting, which was the Assassin Lynch Day. This is the earliest Day that the Assassin will lynch, if possible (they may be forced to lynch earlier if, eg, everyone else has already lynched). If this is the blank, the Assassin will lynch whenever randomly selected (this is also equivalent to putting in 1). Otherwise, if it's before the Assassin Lynch Day, if they are randomly selected and are not the only viable candidate, someone else will be selected.

Running 1,000 permutations with 9 players gives these win % for the town:

Minimum Day Assassin Will Lynch	Town Win %
(None)	60%
1	60%
2	60%
3	61%
4	60%
5	60%
6	63%
7	64%

I'm not infallible, so feel free to examine the provided code, but barring glaring errors being pointed out to me, town wins ~60% just by random lynching. That's a broken game.

↑ Yosarian2 wrote:(shakes head)

The reason that 1:1:1 is a mafia win is that a pure kingmaker endgame sucks, and also, if mafia didn't win ties, then there's no way a mafia could win if he's the last member of is scumgroup.

2:2:1, though, is quite different. At that point, no one knows who is in what scumgroup for sure, no-lynch isn't an option since that just gives the game to the wolves, and it comes down to an actual game of mafia where each scum group is trying to lynch the other for the win.

...and the lone townie with no chance at all to win still randomly decides the game for any of the other factions, no matter how he votes... Only alternative to circumvent the kingmaker situation altogether is obviously if both scumteams agree to lynch the townie, which the mafia team will avoid at all cost because it results in werewolf win.

So let's say all roles are publicly unknown (only scum partners are confirmed to each other) - It's 2:2:1 or 1:1:1

if town votes for any one else in either situation it's mafia win if they lynch wolf (instantly in 1:1:1 situation, in 2:2:1 via 1:2:0 and 1:1:1 after night kill are both mafia wins) and wolf win if they lynch mafia (instantly in 1:1:1, in 2:2:1 via 2:1:0 or 2:0:1 after nighkill).

if town votes no lynch (or just prevents a lynch by not voting) it's on the wolves to night kill correctly and either win via 1:0:1 / 2:1:1 or lose via 1:1:0 / 2:2:0.

Finally if the townie is lynched it's a wolf-win (1:0:0 or 2:1:0 after night kill).

As you can see both situations play out exactly the same and hence shoult be treated analogously.

Someone attacked Assassins in the Palace!

↑ IceGuy wrote:

*

Assassin in the Palace

Not Mafia (informed majority vs. uninformed minority) and broken beyond repair anyway. Bin.

I disagree on the basis that the assassin is informed. If any one townie had the information that the assassin has, the game would end on Day 1 or 2 and the assassin would have only a small chance of winning.

↑ Magua wrote:I believe the binning is because Assassin in the Palace's optimal strategy is "Bandwagon the very first vote in a Day, absolutely no talking"

↑ izakthegoomba wrote:Yeah, AitP has to go. So long as the town is sensible, you may as well roll dice to see who wins.

You seem to assume that town can't do better than random in looking for the assassin without giving away the king's identity. I disagree. Find scummy-acting players, and lynch them.

@Magna post 352: Simulation is fine to show what you're simulating - that town has a way to make their EV 60% - but doesn't address whether that is the town's best strategy, so you didn't show AitP to be broken.

You did show that the balance needs adjustment. Would it be difficult to run the simulation again with a smaller game (1, 2, or 3 fewer guards)?

Or we could make the game larger, but include two assassins who share only one kill. 10/11+ guards, 2 assassins, 1 king, all the rules the same except that it's only the second assassin to be lynched who uses their 1-shot factional kill. I think that would put a lot more pressure on the town to scumhunt.

But I think it could be labeled experimental, as it is different from most games.

↑ IceGuy wrote:

*

Paris Mafia

If both mimes need to die by lynching, can't town simply win or force a draw every time by no-lynching?

If they want to let the mafia to win they can?

↑ Herodotus wrote:I disagree on the basis that the assassin is informed. If any one townie had the information that the assassin has, the game would end on Day 1 or 2 and the assassin would have only a small chance of winning.

I don't get what you're trying to say here.

The assassin is uninformed (doesn't know who the king is), and in the minority.

The town is informed (knows who the king is), and in the majority.

You seem to assume that town can't do better than random in looking for the assassin without giving away the king's identity. I disagree. Find scummy-acting players, and lynch them.

Except that this process will help the assassin WAY more than the town. This is the basic problem in uninformed-minority games: The majority has no desire to gather information, as it will help their adversary more than themselves.

↑ IceGuy wrote:If they want to let the mafia to win they can?

There's a Vig.

↑ IceGuy wrote:

↑ Herodotus wrote:I disagree on the basis that the assassin is informed. If any one townie had the information that the assassin has, the game would end on Day 1 or 2 and the assassin would have only a small chance of winning.

I don't get what you're trying to say here.

The assassin is uninformed (doesn't know who the king is), and in the minority.

The town is informed (knows who the king is), and in the majority.

The town is informed regarding who the king is, and the assassin is informed regarding who the assassin is. If any town player had the assassin's information (especially if it was a guard and not the king) the assassin would be in trouble. So the assassin has information they want to hide. Everyone is informed, even if they're not informed of the same information.

↑ IceGuy wrote:

You seem to assume that town can't do better than random in looking for the assassin without giving away the king's identity. I disagree. Find scummy-acting players, and lynch them.

Except that this process will help the assassin WAY more than the town. This is the basic problem in uninformed-minority games: The majority has no desire to gather information, as it will help their adversary more than themselves.

That's just an assertion...? I could as easily say "Except this process will help town way more than the assassin." I think the burden of proving that scumhunting is fruitless falls on the setup's detractors, if the goal is to disallow the setup from the experimental category of the open queue for that reason.

↑ IceGuy wrote:

↑ IceGuy wrote:If they want to let the mafia to win they can?

There's a Vig.

I feel like that's probably not enough to make town likely to win by not lynching. But I don't know.

↑ Magua wrote:I'm not infallible, so feel free to examine the provided code, but barring glaring errors being pointed out to me, town wins ~60% just by random lynching. That's a broken game.

That's a shitty definition of "a broken game". A broken game is a game where a strategy exists that gives town better chances to win without scumhunting. You have no idea if town could improve on that 60% by scumhunting. I'm pretty sure they can, because if they scumhunt poorly and actually gain no information, you are back at that 60%. It is an unbalanced game, that's true. But that's something different the broken.

Just compare this with texas justice. That's a known broken game. Everyone shoots in a circle, and if scum isn't next to each other in that circle, town has won. And since the chances of winning that way are much better then with lynching and no strategy, it pays to not play the game and use the strategy. That's broken.

Uhh, 60% IS way better than average scumhunting, though. And it's easier.

Follow the Cop in the Original Newbie Setup wasn't 100% or even 80% effective either, but it made the game too damn easy.

↑ Mr. Flay wrote:Uhh, 60% IS way better than average scumhunting, though. And it's easier.

Follow the Cop in the Original Newbie Setup wasn't 100% or even 80% effective either, but it made the game too damn easy.

I think this is the key problem with AitP. At the very least, it shouldn't be catalogued as one of the setups to get a regular run by new mods. I'd be open to leaving it in the not approved/not binned area. Since I'm running the system to allow experienced mod to run whatever setup they want (so long as it's not binned or if new, gets approved), I could see AitP being something selectable in that sense.

I don't think it deserves to be on rotation, though.

↑ Mr. Flay wrote:Uhh, 60% IS way better than average scumhunting, though. And it's easier.

Follow the Cop in the Original Newbie Setup wasn't 100% or even 80% effective either, but it made the game too damn easy.

If you scumhunt averagely, you get the random lynch expectation. Which is that 60%

You seem to assume that town hits scum 50% of the time regardless of the setup. That assumption is rather silly in an unbalanced game.

↑ mykonian wrote:That's a shitty definition of "a broken game". A broken game is a game where a strategy exists that gives town better chances to win without scumhunting. You have no idea if town could improve on that 60% by scumhunting. I'm pretty sure they can, because if they scumhunt poorly and actually gain no information, you are back at that 60%.

Should find some time to talk to:

mykonian wrote:Just compare this with texas justice. That's a known broken game. Everyone shoots in a circle, and if scum isn't next to each other in that circle, town has won. And since the chances of winning that way are much better then with lynching and no strategy, it pays to not play the game and use the strategy. That's broken.

EV for the Texas Justice strategy is 73% (16 town vs 4 mafia). Could town do better than 73% with scumhunting? Maybe. Possibly. Town can certainly scumhunt and then try to pair people up to shoot rather than going by strict list ordering. Doesn't matter. Still broken. AitP is the same way.

EV for a Follow the Cop strategy in Basic 12 player can devolve to somewhere around 50% if the mafia claim/counterclaim the cop (and then shoot the cop if one of them isn't lynched), but that's still a breaking strategy.

Or, I guess, more generally I consider a breaking strategy something that is rote, formulaic, and still gives > 50% chance of success.

Herodotus wrote:@Magna post 352: Simulation is fine to show what you're simulating - that town has a way to make their EV 60% - but doesn't address whether that is the town's best strategy, so you didn't show AitP to be broken. You did show that the balance needs adjustment. Would it be difficult to run the simulation again with a smaller game (1, 2, or 3 fewer guards)?

If it's not town's best strategy (and depending on the town, it may not be) that really just makes it worse for the Assassin.

The 60% was for 9-player AitP. 7 player random lynching is 53% win for the town. 6 player is 50%.

But keep in mind that that's the EV for random lynching, and, again, if you think the town can scumhunt better than randomly, you've pushed it townsided again.

I more like the idea that there are two assassins (with only one kill between them), because then that gives town something to talk about (possible connections between assassins). As it is now, I agree with IceGuy -- town really has no reason to discuss anything because town already has the information. You can say "But they don't know who the assassin is," but that just doesn't map. Yes, neither side has perfect information, but there's absolutely zero information that either side can give the other without losing them the game.

Okay, churning through these last Large Opens;

Binning: Big Love, The New C9
Approving: Weak MD (with extra VT), Picking Simplicity (with Macho Cop)

~~

For the Experimental Opens;

Binning: Dethy, Rebels in the Palace
Approving: Mayo Clinic (with Docblocker)

Still don't really know what to do with AITP, so I'll probably just keep it off the roster for regular games but allow experienced mods to run it if they really want to. Rebels in the Palace really isn't balanced, though, so that can go.

Don't know what to do with the Quack Mafias yet. Paris needs a rethink and I know Rusty Guillotine got some questions raised about its mechanic - it'd be nice to have hito come in and talk about that setup. Tread Carefully is a cool idea, but I feel like the town might need a 13th player and/or the two Mafia kills per night needs to be rethought.

Double Day -
Picking Simplicity -
Near Vanilla (14P) -
Weak MD (14P) -

Big Love -
Immunity Mafia -
Lovers Multiball -
Ninja Mafia -
The New C9 -

~~

Donner Party -
Medical Mafia -
Mayo Clinic -

Assassin in the Palace
Paris Mafia
Quack Mafia
Quack Multiball
Rusty Guillotine Mafia
Tread Carefully

10P Jester Mafia -
12P Jester Mafia -
Dethy -
Rebels in the Palace -
Texas Justice Mafia -
Crush Nightless -

Why is Tread Carefully still asterisk'd? Its not broken, as far as we're aware its not imbalanced, it is exactly what it says on the tin. If mods want to mod it and players want to play it then surely there's nothing more to say.

Oh yeah, I value this setup highly and want to run it (But if its not allowed in the open set ups I want to get in the MT ASAP.)

Oh, another thing about C9++ that I don't think we covered.

If a 1-shot role gets blocked, is their shot spent?

↑ Herodotus wrote:The town is informed regarding who the king is, and the assassin is informed regarding who the assassin is. If any town player had the assassin's information (especially if it was a guard and not the king) the assassin would be in trouble. So the assassin has information they want to hide. Everyone is informed, even if they're not informed of the same information.

Knowledge about one's own alignment isn't the "information" I'm talking about here. Just as the town isn't "informed" because the players all individually know they're town.

That's just an assertion...? I could as easily say "Except this process will help town way more than the assassin." I think the burden of proving that scumhunting is fruitless falls on the setup's detractors, if the goal is to disallow the setup from the experimental category of the open queue for that reason.

Straw man. I can't "prove" scumhunting is fruitless, obviously. Just as you can't "prove" it isn't.

↑ mykonian wrote:
That's a shitty definition of "a broken game". A broken game is a game where a strategy exists that gives town better chances to win without scumhunting. You have no idea if town could improve on that 60% by scumhunting. I'm pretty sure they can, because if they scumhunt poorly and actually gain no information, you are back at that 60%.

No. No, they're not.

If town scumhunts badly, they are hurting their chances, because the assassin will gain information regarding the king.

And scumhunting in AitP is rather hard, since there is only one scum player and no night actions (except for the final kill).

↑ izakthegoomba wrote:Oh, another thing about C9++ that I don't think we covered.

If a 1-shot role gets blocked, is their shot spent?

I say yes.

↑ Hoopla wrote:I know Rusty Guillotine got some questions raised about its mechanic - it'd be nice to have hito come in and talk about that setup.

Some people think it's balanced in favor of scum. I disagree (it's one of those opens where each role is also basically an on-demand innocent child), but I do think that it isn't fun and it should probably be binned. Delayed flips are one of those things that can be balanced but can't really be made entertaining. And it only REALLY works when people on guillotine are really working to influence the game, which is a bit optimistic of a goal.

↑ Empking wrote:Why is Tread Carefully still asterisk'd? Its not broken, as far as we're aware its not imbalanced, it is exactly what it says on the tin. If mods want to mod it and players want to play it then surely there's nothing more to say.

As I said just before, allowing mafia two kills per night (and from one goon) allows them to trade in one goon (or none) for two town players at night, which is a massive advantage in a 4:8 game. If town mislynches D1 and D2, they lose (even if you give town the best case scenario of one goon dying each night). I doubt it's balanced.

The game needs an extra VT and/or (with a preference for "and"), an alteration to the 2 kills per night rule. It's difficult to just change the rule to 1 kill per night, as it makes it a lot more difficult to get rid of PGO's, although there is no way to prove that you are a PGO, so it makes it a viable fakeclaim for scum and town will be forced to lynch PGO's sometimes. 1 kill per night work...

↑ Empking wrote:Oh yeah, I value this setup highly and want to run it (But if its not allowed in the open set ups I want to get in the MT ASAP.)

The process I'm going to start using for running a new setup is;

1. Get it approved here
2. You (or another "experienced" mod) signup to run it in the Open Queue
3. If it goes well and people like it, it can be considered for regular rotation like the other games

So, if you have serious intentions of running it soon, I'll review it for you here.

↑ Magua wrote:

↑ izakthegoomba wrote:Oh, another thing about C9++ that I don't think we covered.

If a 1-shot role gets blocked, is their shot spent?

I say yes.

I say yes, also.

↑ IceGuy wrote:

↑ mykonian wrote:
That's a shitty definition of "a broken game". A broken game is a game where a strategy exists that gives town better chances to win without scumhunting. You have no idea if town could improve on that 60% by scumhunting. I'm pretty sure they can, because if they scumhunt poorly and actually gain no information, you are back at that 60%.

No. No, they're not.

If town scumhunts badly, they are hurting their chances, because the assassin will gain information regarding the king.

And scumhunting in AitP is rather hard, since there is only one scum player

and no night actions (except for the final kill).

blue: that's the game you are playing. If town scumhunts badly, yes they are better off random lynching.

Red: that has nothing to do with scumhunting. That has to do with your random odds. The more scum, the larger the chance you hit them. Scumhunting is how much you can improve on those odds by using information in your favor. The fact that you are more often correct the more scum there are doens't make you a good scumhunter.

No. Scumhunting in a one-man scumgame is hard because there are no possible connections to find. Everyone has a vested interest in not being the person lynched (since it's bad for their team, no matter who they are), there's no opposing team that makes scum worry about not being "too effective" and being Night-killed, and there's no other people the one-man scumteam has an interest in not dying that can be used as connections.

↑ Hoopla wrote:

↑ Empking wrote:Why is Tread Carefully still asterisk'd? Its not broken, as far as we're aware its not imbalanced, it is exactly what it says on the tin. If mods want to mod it and players want to play it then surely there's nothing more to say.

As I said just before, allowing mafia two kills per night (and from one goon) allows them to trade in one goon (or none) for two town players at night, which is a massive advantage in a 4:8 game. If town mislynches D1 and D2, they lose (even if you give town the best case scenario of one goon dying each night). I doubt it's balanced.

The game needs an extra VT and/or (with a preference for "and"), an alteration to the 2 kills per night rule. It's difficult to just change the rule to 1 kill per night, as it makes it a lot more difficult to get rid of PGO's, although there is no way to prove that you are a PGO, so it makes it a viable fakeclaim for scum and town will be forced to lynch PGO's sometimes. 1 kill per night

could

work...

↑ Empking wrote:Oh yeah, I value this setup highly and want to run it (But if its not allowed in the open set ups I want to get in the MT ASAP.)

The process I'm going to start using for running a new setup is;

1. Get it approved here
2. You (or another "experienced" mod) signup to run it in the Open Queue
3. If it goes well and people like it, it can be considered for regular rotation like the other games

So, if you have serious intentions of running it soon, I'll review it for you here.

Yesv I have serious intentions of running it soon.

↑ Magua wrote:No. Scumhunting in a one-man scumgame is hard because there are no possible connections to find. Everyone has a vested interest in not being the person lynched (since it's bad for their team, no matter who they are), there's no opposing team that makes scum worry about not being "too effective" and being Night-killed, and there's no other people the one-man scumteam has an interest in not dying that can be used as connections.

This.