Mini 285 - Charlie Mafia - Game Over!
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Yes, but even with that, with the scum killing me, and me killing one of you, you'll still only have one deaths among yourself when morning dawns, just like you would if you lynched me. But, what you don't get if you lynch me, is that you'll have today's lynch, with which there is a chance you catch scum, plus the chance that I hit scum tonight.
And even if scum don't kill me and I kill a townie, you're still better off than lynch-or-lose. See my post 338 for details.
And even if scum don't kill me and I kill a townie, you're still better off than lynch-or-lose. See my post 338 for details.
- Ameliaslay
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Ameliaslay
- Woman of the Window Sill
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Look, considering there were no kills last night, we have a 2 in 3 chance in lynching right tommorow, based on my blocks. It is not very certain that we will lose, yet!ziliu wrote: If you don't lynch me, you most probably get at least two chances of lynching scum. You don't automatically win, but you got much better chances.
Now that I'm outed, it doesn't really matter much that I will try to restore the balance if you get ahead of the mafia. You can just lynch me right away.
If you aren't convinced, I can say that there is also high probability mafia will night-kill me tonight. (Too high for my liking actually Sad)Unless you lynch me of course. But why do the mafia's job for them? By forcing them to kill me, one of your own will be saved.
"There is nothing more exhilarating than to be shot at without result." - Winston Churchill
- Ameliaslay
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Ameliaslay
- Woman of the Window Sill
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No you don't, the mafia who didn't make the kill might not be among the four.Atticus wrote:Look, considering there were no kills last night, we have a 2 in 3 chance in lynching right tommorow, based on my blocks.
And even if both mafia were among those four, you still have 2/3 chance of hitting scum
today
. Even if you hit the 1 townie among the 3, you have very good chances of winning.Mafia is not about who is right, mafia is about who is left.
- Ameliaslay
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Ameliaslay
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- Flying Dutchman
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Flying Dutchman
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- Nightfall
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Nightfall
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ziliu, simply put, I dont trust you. If we try and lynch someone else theres a huge chance we hit a townie. Then you and mafia make a kill in the night. Mafia may purposely avoid you in hopes that you would also make a kill. And since youd have a 2/3 chance of hitting town yourself that would be a bonus for them. The next day we'd have 2 scum 1 sk and 2 town. If we lynch you today we go into tommorow with 4 town and 2 scum. Much better odds.
Confirm vote: ziliu
Once Nightfall comes, everyone's dead...
Yes,
It's debatable whether or not you have better odds with the latter(with 4 town 2 scum you have 1/3 chance of hitting scum, otherwise you lose, with 2 town 1 sk 2 scum you have 1/2 chance of hitting scum.), but let's assume so for the sake of the argument. Still, you can't make an argument about odds assuming a lot of ifs, without taking account of them in determining odds. That's like saying: "If I bet my money on that a '6' will come up when you roll the die, and a '6' comes up, I have 100% chance of winning. That's more than the 1/2 chance of winning I have if I bet that an odd number will come up. Therefore, i should bet my money on a six".
if
you lynch townie today and if
mafia decide not to kill me and if
I decde to kill and if
I hit townie, you arrive at the 2 scum 1 sk 2 town vs 4 town 2 scum odds. It's debatable whether or not you have better odds with the latter(with 4 town 2 scum you have 1/3 chance of hitting scum, otherwise you lose, with 2 town 1 sk 2 scum you have 1/2 chance of hitting scum.), but let's assume so for the sake of the argument. Still, you can't make an argument about odds assuming a lot of ifs, without taking account of them in determining odds. That's like saying: "If I bet my money on that a '6' will come up when you roll the die, and a '6' comes up, I have 100% chance of winning. That's more than the 1/2 chance of winning I have if I bet that an odd number will come up. Therefore, i should bet my money on a six".
Mafia is not about who is right, mafia is about who is left.
- Nightfall
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Nightfall
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I cant make an arguement about odds containing a lot of ifs, and neither can you.
Your a threat to us like I said, IF we do this this and this,
You might help us IF you were to do that that and that.
A series of things that the only guess we have that they will happen is that you say you will do them.
The thing is, I don't trust you one bit right now.
You lynched our doc for heavens sake.
Also for your plan to work we would have to lynch scum today.
I REALLY don't feal comfortable gambling on doing that with the info we have right now.
If we lynch you, we gain more control over the game, and we will get info through the night.
The only way you are going to save yourself from my vote today is to somehow come up with solid proof against someone being scum.
I know you dont like me talking about odds containing if statements, but...
Your a threat to us like I said, IF we do this this and this,
You might help us IF you were to do that that and that.
A series of things that the only guess we have that they will happen is that you say you will do them.
The thing is, I don't trust you one bit right now.
You lynched our doc for heavens sake.
Also for your plan to work we would have to lynch scum today.
I REALLY don't feal comfortable gambling on doing that with the info we have right now.
If we lynch you, we gain more control over the game, and we will get info through the night.
The only way you are going to save yourself from my vote today is to somehow come up with solid proof against someone being scum.
I know you dont like me talking about odds containing if statements, but...
IF
you dont somehow find scum for us like I said above, then I will 100% be voting for you today.Once Nightfall comes, everyone's dead...
ziliu wrote:FOS: Atticus.
Prince Pondicherry from Wikipedia
Assuming two mafia left:
If you lynch wrong today, and two pro-towns die tonight, you wake up with 2 scum, me, and two townies. It is in the interest of both mine and the townie's not to lynch me. By then, you'll have another chance to lynch scum. The following night, I'll kinda be dead by the scums hands tonight, but, from your point of view in total, you have two chances to lynch scum.
If you no-lynch, worst case, there'll be 2 dead townsfolk, i.e. you wake up with 2 scum, me, and 3 townpeople. It is my best interest to not lynch myself. It is in the town's best interest not to lynch me. Therefore I'll not be lynched. But, even if you lynch wrong, you don't auto-lose, since there's a chance I hit scum with my night-kill that night. Slightly better than lynch-or-lose. Though I'll probably die here as well. Plus, if you don't lynch me right away today you'll have more discussion to go by.
Both these cases are better than lynch-or-lose. And, they apply only in case two townies die tonight. They might not, mafia may choose to kill me tonight. I may hit a mafia. (Okay, if I hit mafia I'm as good as dead, so I wont' be trying to do that, sorry, town ) But I think I might have better odds if I no-kill tonight (depending on whether you lynch scum today or not) which should give you a better chance of winning as well.
In short, it is in the interest of both yours and mine not to lynch me today.
I don't know that I trust this logic. Four townies and two scum sounds like better odds,ziliu wrote:Yes, but even with that, with the scum killing me, and me killing one of you, you'll still only have one deaths among yourself when morning dawns, just like you would if you lynched me. But, what you don't get if you lynch me, is that you'll have today's lynch, with which there is a chance you catch scum, plus the chance that I hit scum tonight.
And even if scum don't kill me and I kill a townie, you're still better off than lynch-or-lose. See my post 338 for details.
unless
we can get them into a Prisoner's Dilemma. Ziliu's plan works out best if we (a)lynch a townie, or (b)have scum kill each other. I believe that if ziliu is
a serial killer, it would be in his best interests to shoot mafia tomorrow, except that then he's screwed anyways. It's entirely possible he's part of a Mafia group, hoping to buy some time for his buddies. So basically:1. ziliu is scum
2. We need to kill scum
3. Kill ziliu.
vote:ziliu
. We're not screwed if he's dead, so we kill him.- Flying Dutchman
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Vote Count (5 to lynch):
ziliu: 5
(Atticus, Ameliaslay, Nightfall, Akonas, ShamrockAnd a lynch it is!
You quickly lynch Ziliu, and search for a clue about his role. Turns out he was lying after all! He was neither innocent, nor a Serial Killer...
Ziliu, Roy, the Oompa-loompa (Scum), lynched day 3.
It is Night 4. Please get your choices to me ASAP.
It is Night 4. Please get your choices to me ASAP.
- Flying Dutchman
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Flying Dutchman
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- Flying Dutchman
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Flying Dutchman
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Sorry for the delay people, but now we can move on again!
You all wake up, and find 2 bodies in one of the big pipelines: W!nt3r and Ameliaslay look truly horrible! You look each other in the eyes, and begin the day....
Ameliasley, Charlie Bucket (Townie) - Killed night 4
W!nt3r, Veruca Salt (Townie) - Killed Night 4
It is day 4.
With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch. Good luck.
W!nt3r, Veruca Salt (Townie) - Killed Night 4
It is day 4.
With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch. Good luck.