Mini 207 - Roleswap Mafia! Nightfall lynched, but who's won?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I sent the loudspeaker to Thok last night, and I have the mailman's hat today.

[Nightfall]

I have had nothing all game, including today.
p.s. Would it be possible for someone to tell what our remaining items do now?
There's been a good amount of talk about the mailmans hat, and the GBA, and
there's also a comment about how the mailmans hat can suposedly prove that
Mepmuff and Thok are town? I can't really contribute to that part of the conversation without first knowing what it does.

[mepmuff]

Mailman's hat yesterday, nothing today.

I'm currently thinking Nightfall and CA are the scum. This quote:

@Thok - I'm not sure if I said this already, but I gave you the GBA since you asked so many questions about it yesterday and I figured you'd want to know what it did. Sorry.

in particular doesn't ring true.

Why would you send that item to someone purely to inform them? Why didn't you just tell him the info yesterday? It seems more likely to me you just wanted him restricted.

The fact that MoS sent the loudspeaker to thok is gaining weight as an argument here as well. We're at 5 players left with 2 scum. Why would scum send this item to anything but his scum-body at this crucial point? I'd think the loudspeaker could be a game-winner for scum at this moment. Perhaps someone who actually had the item can explain wether it could win the game at this point?

[Thok]

I'm busy playing Megaman Battle Network, but no, at this point the louderspeaker isn't a good item.

I can cast an infinite number of votes, but I can contribute at most lynch/2 (rounded down) to today's lynch. Since 3/2 rounds to 1, the only pratical effect of the item today is to remove my ability to unvote. Basically, I can't afford to vote wrong today. I can still vote multiple people today, but I don't plan to.

Incidentally, I figure that I will be killed tonight if there is a night-kill; scum won't want me returning either the loudspeaker or the GBA back to them.

mepmuff, I'd suggest trying to find a pair of people that you are sure contains one scum and and one townie, then vote the third person, who by process of elimination is scum. That is look for pairs of people who can't be on the same team.

Also, I don't find Nightfall's concern about us being scum to be ridiculous, since he doesn't know that we are scum. I probably overstated things when I said I could prove we were masons (as opposed to just being able to talk at night, this was to prevent counterclaims). I'd expect a townie to be concerned about us being scum, since he at this point has exactly a 50-50 choice (either we are scum or some subset of the other two of Nightfall-MOS-CA are scum).

[mepmuff]

Ok, I'm completely confused now.

So, the loudspeaker is quite possibly an even worse item to hold then the GBA. So the passing of that item is actually a score against MoS, not for him.

Nightfall actually looks good all of a sudden.

I think I'll be dreaming of this one.

[Commodore Amazing]

@Thok - I'm not sure if I said this already, but I gave you the GBA since you asked so many questions about it yesterday and I figured you'd want to know what it did. Sorry.

Why would you send that item to someone purely to inform them? Why didn't you just tell him the info yesterday? It seems more likely to me you just wanted him restricted.

That is not at all a good point. It might take me a minute to explain this one, but Thok will tell you that this is not a good point. PLEASE do not vote until you hear from Thok on this one. Thok, when you finish up your gaming, please quote this message and tell mepmuff not to vote for me, at least not based on this quote.

[mepmuff]

Oh, Nightfall: Could you post an updated version of your pretty picture of item swapping?

[mepmuff]

Thok: Don't post purely to answer CA. It can wait to be combined with more info if that helps dealing with the restriction.

CA: I'll humore you and try to ignore that argument as best I can for now, but if you can at least try to explain why it isn't a good point, that would be helpfull.

[Nightfall]

Okay, I think this is correct...

[mepmuff]

Ok, of those alive I think interesting is:

Nightfall had no items whatsoever.

mepmuff swapped the hat back and forth with MoS, received the doc item from scum, passed it to a known innocent (who subsequently died).

CA passed the roleblock item to scum, received the GBA from MoS and sent it on to Thok.

MoS swapped the hat back and forth with mepmuff, sent the vig item to a known good guy, sent the GBA to CA and sent the loudspeaker to Thok

Thok received the loudspeaker from a known good guy, tried to send it back to that known good guy, sent it to MoS, got it back from MoS and received the GBA from CA.

[mepmuff]

A thinking out loud post:

Nightfall had no items whatsoever.

Nightfall is a wildcard.

mepmuff swapped the hat back and forth with MoS

mepmuff and MoS could be working together.

mepmuff received the doc item from scum, passed it to a known innocent (who subsequently died).

Uhmmm yeah. Let's not talk about this shall we? Seriously: makes me look pretty bad.

CA passed the roleblock item to scum

possible link between CA and gnome.

CA received the GBA from MoS and sent it on to Thok.

CA is unlikely to work with MoS and Thok (barring supplying alibi's).

MoS sent the vig item to a known good guy

Makes MoS look good.

MoS sent the GBA to CA and sent the loudspeaker to Thok

MoS is unlikely to work with CA and Thok (barring supplying alibi's).

Thok received the loudspeaker from a known good guy, tried to send it back to that known good guy

makes Thok look good.

Thok sent the loudspeaker to MoS, got it back from MoS and received the GBA from CA.

Thok is unlikely to work with MoS and CA.

[Nightfall]

Mepmuff, you and Thok are normal masons right?
Your not one of those 1 mafia and 1 town brother roles are you?
I'll point out that your letter/pm was addressed "Brother".

OOC:

In such roles do both brothers always know that the other brother is on the other side?

Why I ask this is because, as an outsider to your, Thok, and MOS's ring of item passing, I have to admit, it does look like "bad men hoarding items", even if it was just passing between people you trusted.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Just a note, but I don't remember ever having the vig item.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I think CA is most definitely scum. I only think Nightfall is scum because I know I am not.

[Nightfall]

The vig item went from _obelix_ to Thesp and that is where it was destroyed.

[mepmuff]

My bad on the vig item, sorry.

Mepmuff, you and Thok are normal masons right?
Your not one of those 1 mafia and 1 town brother roles are you?
I'll point out that your letter/pm was addressed "Brother".

Dang... wer'e actually called siblings. I just took it for flavour and never looked back at it. A whole new angle develops, which I hadn't considered up till now. I'll be going through my PM's to see if there's anything weird once I have the time to do that properly.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Personally, I think Nightfall is just trying to muddy the waters. I mean, if he can get you to lynch your own mason buddy, what can't he do? I think one of the town's balancing factors was having 2 masons who could confirm each other, since mafia and town are basically equal on all other accounts, since the items change hands each night. However, it's still something worth looking into.

[mepmuff]

Looking through my PM's, I didn't find anything which suggests Thok could be a bad guy. On the contrary, there's a PM where he tells me he wants to send the loudspeaker to me because he hadn't realized we couldn't send items to each other. The speed of our conversations also doesn't imply that Thok had another conversation on the side going.

By the way: If someone wants to put some theories/thoughts forward, please do. It's getting silent.

[Commodore Amazing]

MoS and Nightfall are scum.

vote: Nightfall

. mepmuff, let me know all your questions today. MoS might kill you and I could end up with the GBA.

Part of the reason I gave Gnome the roleblocker item because he was not on the lynch vote.

MoS did not have the vig item. Notice how Nightfall didn't point that out and led you on believing that. MoS is smarter, and probably thought you were setting a trap. This is a huge link between the two. Please don't miss it. They're scum. They're trying to set me up, or trying to get you to lynch your mason buddy (?!?!?).

MoS is talking about the set-up again. He has no instances of me being scummy. It's easier to talk about the set-up than it is to find instances where a pro-town player is scum.

[Nightfall]

Isn't it a bit too early for a vote? We are in a lynch or loose are we not?

[mepmuff]

I'm having big problems with this one and feel a lot of you are waiting on me to make a decision.

Can someone who knows a bit more about the GBA tell me if we can expect another post from Thok, while he still has the possibility to post with a vote later?

[Commodore Amazing]

I believe Thok has posted three times today. He can post 7 more times today.

[Mastermind of Sin]

CA, I'm not trying to convince them you are scum, so why would I be searching for reasons why you are scum? I believe Nightfall could be scum, and knowing that I'm not scum, I can narrow down the list to you, mepmuff, and thok. I believe their claim, so that leaves you. However, I am not trying to make you seem like scum. You misrepresent me. However, your obvious efforts to misrepresent me to mepmuff and thok make me think you are scum for more than just process of elimination. As scum, you could afford to lynch your partner Nightfall, because you would kill a mason at night, and hope to get me lynched the next day, therefore securing your win. This, of course, applies to me as well, and since i believe both the masons, I will add my

vote: Nightfall

and hope that the masons make a good decision tomorrow, should it come down to the two of us.

[Nightfall]

I believe Nightfall could be scum

You,

believe

that I

could

be scum? and so you place a 2nd
vote on me in a lynch to loose point of the game?

Scum.

Vote: MOS

[Thok]

Hey, there are two votes on Nightfall. That's worth a break from Mario Pinball Land to prove that me and mepmuff aren't scum to Nightfall (else one of us would vote Nightfall now). Now to figure out who are scum.

I won't comment about post 396 at this time. I will say something about it tonight, mepmuff.

CA, why are you so worried about having the GBA tomorrow? It's not like your vote won't be completely determined-you won't be voting me or Thesp. (Also it's somewhat likely that I'll be killed tomorrow night just to get the loudspeaker and GBA out of the game-I think it's clearly a superior play then killing mepmuff).

I'm leaning towards a CA-Nightfall scum group right now, but I'm nowhere near confident enough to place a vote yet. My reasoning: Nightfall tried to get me to vote MOS rather than Sineish yesterday, which makes me think that they aren't scum partners, which means that one of them is pro-town, and therefore CA is scum. Similarly, MOS passed the GBA to CA, which I don't think a scum pair would do, so it means one of them is protown, and therefore Nightfall is scum. But neither of these arguments is particularly strong (I'd very slightly favor voting CA at the moment though).