Open 778: Nightless Vanilla [Game Over!]

[Isis]

This setup is really hard for scum

[Green Crayons]

Hey did I really see the scum slips outing their daytalk thread?

[humaneatingmonkey]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW

I'm glad I did that re-read.

[Isis]

What do you mean?

[Isis]

That was @GC

[humaneatingmonkey]

You're not scum?

[Green Crayons]

Like, the thing that I keep coming back to is that

Cycle first said that Ali/Human/Isis were a scum team switching from Cycle to Norwegian

ONE MINUTE LATER Norwegian in the very next post says that Ali/Human/Isis were a scum team, but doesn’t reference Cycle’s theory

Cycle later seemed to make it look like Norwegian’s idea

I know it’s tin foil hat but it looks like a scum thread strategy accidentally revealed.

Did y'all decide in daychat to say that Ali/Human/Isis were looking like a scum team?

[Isis]

Don't lynch GC no matter what, you owe me that monkey. Listen to your own words, your reads have been shit all game, please deadsheeo some teammates

[Green Crayons]

Don't be mean, isis.

[humaneatingmonkey]

But FB thinks GC was scum?

[Isis]

GC was already lock town and this looks a little difficult to fabricate

[Isis]

Ali and I are outvoting fb. Actually Ali, I, and pastFB

[humaneatingmonkey]

Okay then. I'll go Elements > Looker.

[Green Crayons]

Ugh.

Looker, elements, HME, yeah Isis?

[Isis]

I made you townspew even further GC.
Mafia involves being mean to win more

Even as town

[Isis]

Concern with HEM might be paranoia

I think it's worth evaluating whether hem should die.
My biggest thing is don't kill gc

[humaneatingmonkey]

Okay jeez. Not lynching him

[Green Crayons]

Well now back to D3.

[Isis]

I guess my raw chance of winning is 66% if my GC TR is right
I'd have a lot more if I didn't get lynched for being on every scum lynch in nightless lel

[humaneatingmonkey]

Seeing "Isis was Vanilla Townie" from NSG will make my heart sink. NGL.

[Green Crayons]

Cycle Men (7) Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Firebringer (1234), Green Crayons (1240), Elements (1245), Alisae (1289)
Elements (4) Cycle Men (1002), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187), Albert B. Rampage (1251)
NorwegianboyEE (1) Looker (456)

This is a surprisingly polarized vote count. And ABR flipping town makes me wonder if 2 if not all of the scum were voting Cycle Men as a planned buss. Looker could be scum as well though. Idk how i feel about him sitting out the major wagons. Theoretically this could mean something completely different if Elements was scum too. But i'm not really going to consider that too much atm.

Norwegian wanted to look at the cycle-wagon. Acknowledged but didn't want to pursue Looker or Elements being scum. And we know nobody else on his Elements wagon was scum.

Scum points for Looker & Elements.

[Green Crayons]

So why did I not want to bus him earlier in the game?

I think the late joiners on the wagon are more likely to be scum bussing. That includes you. You were defending him at first, before switching to voting him with a slightly awkward hammer when he was L-1. That's not a good enough reason to suspect you? You seem to be shading the people voting you more than you are actually trying to solve atm.

So who is he trying to aim at?

Votecount 1.Final

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (7)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Firebringer (1234), Green Crayons (1240), Elements (1245), Alisae (1289)
Elements (4)	Cycle Men (1002), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187), Albert B. Rampage (1251)
NorwegianboyEE (1)	Looker (456)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Cycle Men was lynched. He was a

Mafia Goon

.

Sorry, this is the final.

FB, GC, Elements, Ali

We definitely know 2 of those are town, and I'm town. Looks good for Elements.

[Green Crayons]

Spoiler: oh damn, Ali

VOTE: NorwEE

Let's go.

you guys are lame
VOTE: Norwee

This is where it all starts.

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey
im keeping this here for the day

Cycle Men votes Monkey and in return, Monkey OMGUS' Cycle Men.

VOTE: Cycle Men

Okay bro

VOTE: Cycle Men

Like when you post and come with theories maybe turn on your brain a little bit, yeah?

pedit: My arguement against it is that it is stupid, not realistic, and excessive, and I am questioning if you are either scum or just bad.
and honestly
this makes me lean towards bad the more I think about it because this whole fucking take on me is just stupid unless you genuinely believe it.

Then I have a huge interaction with Clemency at the end of it, I come to a townread on Cycle Men.
I'm not quoting the whole interaction because it doesn't matter. What is relevant is that after an interaction, I am townreading Cycle Men and during this time, I am still trying to push Norwee

Alisae, why is Mr. Inorganic and Mr. Sheeps-a-lot town?

I'm still trying to push Norwee and monkey is not at all interested in it. He wants to bus Cycle Men as seen in his next post.

I want to be clear. I'm not finding Looker, GC, Elements, and NorwEE as hard to sort. I am sorting them as likely scum. But I can be very wrong, and I think a flipped Cycle Men will help me be more right.

The only reason I didn't have Cycle Men as my primary lynch option earlier was the lack of counterwagon during that period. However, I can see merit in Deimos' push against him. But now I see that the paranoia around it is outweighed by the uncertainty Cycle Men will bring me later in the game.

So Cycle Men it is.

Yes, Alisae, I can be on the NorwEE wagon. But I also want this Cycle Men wagon to happen.

Now, I feel like Monkey made the decision to bus Cycle Men over Norwee because its just easier to bus the weaker player on your team.

However after this post, I tell him to vote Norwee here

Yes, Alisae, I can be on the NorwEE wagon. But I also want this Cycle Men wagon to happen.

vote
norwee

and at these next posts, he flat out just doesn't care about my Norwee scumread or acknowledge this post.

Okay I can buy that thank you for that

Although isn't sheeping exactly like voting based on trusting that the person you're following is town?

you know what
i hate you norwee (not actually just ur making this frustrating lmao)
i am going to admit
that i probably do not know how you play this game at all
i don't think i agree with it but this is giving me flashbacks to the normal where I had issues reading you and you reacted similarly
and now there is this seed of doubt that was planted

I think its Isis if ur town
VOTE: Isis

if you do that it's just going to be an inevitable cycle men lynch. Everyone wants a lynch and cycle men has the most so the people on it are most likely just gonna leave their votes there adn wait for everyone to panic move onto him.
I'm happy for a cycle or human lynch but i'd prefer the latter
VOTE: human

scrap that, human is pretty locktown for me now
VOTE: cycle

?????? how does this happen in a human brain
VOTE: elements

This is where Cycle Men decides he wants to push Elements and because I was scumreading Elements for his vote movements, I join him here

unless we gonna flashwagon Elements
Im down for that

I'm evaluating whether or not Elements is town for the solve that no one has really took me up on the wagon I made around him, or scumread him because by his own admission he's been lynchable and yet no one other than me has really pushed him.

okay i like Elements now

Now look what's happening.
I am pushing a cw on town!Elements while scum!Cycle is still being wagoned.
The best play that monkey could make here is to continue to push Cycle.
This is the best play for monkey because its at this point that the Cycle Men flip makes me look bad since we're both trying to mislynch town!Elements together. If he continues to push Cycle Men here, he can use the cred he got from the Cycle Men lynch as well as the fact that the Cycle Men flip makes me look terrible to try to lynch me after he lynches Cycle Men.
Lynching town!Elements here doesn't yield the same result. It doesn't boost his chances of winning aside from the fact that they need 1 less mislynch.

Lynching Cycle Men over town!Elements here boosts his chance to win the game because now he can use that flip to try to discredit me and lynch me.

there is no town motivations in your actions.
town does not play this way.

this isn't really true

So now you have him defending Elements and getting me to lynch Cycle Men in these next posts.

Ali, why is Cycle Men town? You missed my question.

Cycle Men > NorwEE

Let's just get the flips, man.

This post was made after monkey interact with Cycle Men where he still maintains a scumread on Cycle Men.
When scum make the decision to bus, they will not get off track and they will not hop off. They want the bus to go through and they will do everything in their power to make it go through.
The rest of these posts are just him trying to push Cycle Men through

no i recognize what you've done and i truly thank you for that. unfortunately i'm reading you as scum

nah. i don't buy that. i think town!you would recognize that it's very easy to scum to hammer you there and get away with it.

i think the more reasonable explanation is you're not worried about scum, because you're scum.

what do you think about my vote on cycle men? why do you like the elements wagon better than cycle men?

Don't you guys find it weird that like days ago, the L-1 wagon who no one hammered, is now very hard to push in deadline? Clemency is scum. Flip this slot.

Okay so whats the takeaway.

The takeaway is
- Elements is likely town based on Cycle Men pushing them and if Monkey flips scum, Monkey defending them. Its just the best position to take here.
- Monkey made the conscious decision to bus Cycle Men and is just doing the best they can to push the bus through. from 902 till lynch, he never gives another lynch the consideration or the light of day.
- Also, he made the decision to bus Cycle Men because he did not want to vote Norwee for whatever reason. Like, after 902, he doesn't even consider the lynch.

---

Now the rest of this post is going to be dedicated to Norwee scum and mostly talking about my interactions with him today.

anyone out there think alisae will flip town?

Norwee why are you voting me

Because scum was bussing Cycle Men and you look suspicious.

Why do I look suspicious

—

okay but Cycle Men is town so just lynch Norwee with me, yeah?

I mean, this is the kind of shit all over your ISO. And then you switch over to Cycle Men when he's close to getting lynch and hammer for the towncred.

I did not lynch and hammer for towncred.
I lynched and hammered because in mafia games, there is a deadline, and using a no lynch on day 1 is not optimal.

If you are associating me with Cycle Men, why are you only reading my ISO by itself.
Why are you not taking into consideration Cycle Men’s posts?

In this post, I want Norwee to elaborate on his read on me because he's not really explaining himself and just saying general statements to just hide behind.
I also notice that he is only making comments about my ISO, and he is using associations to scumread me here.
The issue with that is, he is only considering half of the story. When you look at associations, you also have to consider the person who flipped scum as well.
And Norwee isn't doing that.

Also consider that Cycle Men was mostly afk and doing fuckall at the beginning. So it was a obvious teammate to buss since he really didn't up his game until he was put into L-1.

So why did I not want to bus him earlier in the game?

Norwee is talking about how he was doing fuckall nothing but before I came around to townreading him, I hardly even talk about him. And I'm certainly not pushing Cycle Men and saying "CYCLE MEN IS DOING FUCK ALL NOTHING HE NEEDS TO DIE" and this is what Norwee is trying to describe me doing.
So I ask him to talk about why I didn't bus him earlier in the game to see what he would come up with.
If he's town here, he would look at my ISO and realize that what he's saying doesn't make sense.
Instead he writes 1601 and I respond to it.

So why did I not want to bus him earlier in the game?

I think the late joiners on the wagon are more likely to be scum bussing. That includes you. You were defending him at first, before switching to voting him with a slightly awkward hammer when he was L-1. That's not a good enough reason to suspect you? You seem to be shading the people voting you more than you are actually trying to solve atm.

It’s not a good enough reason Norwee, and let me tell you why.
When I started to townread him was when he started playing the game.
You are taking this moment and this particular moment only and trying to suggest that I was defending my scumbuddy and decided to take an awkward hammer when he was at L-1.

Thats not a good enough reason because you are only evaluating that particular moment and nothing else.
You are not evaluating my read on him before he wanted to play the game, only after.
Also you are not taking into consideration that if scum decides “Hey, I wasn’t doing much earlier, but now I am invested into the game and actually want to play it,” that since they’re starting to play the game and take it seriously, that they CAN trick town into townreading them.

In the post I'm responding to, he basically doubles down on his theory and says that "WELL, THE LATE JOINERS ARE LIKELY TO BE BUSSING AND THAT MEANS YOU" and just doubling down on the fact I defended him and even tries to make the hammer just sound bad, completely leaving out the circumstances around the hammer (It was end of day and its better to lynch Day 1 then not lynch).

In this point, I am basically trying to describe how unnatural this take actually is.
He is also not taking into consideration that it is possible for me to just be wrong on Cycle Men.

You townread him when he was at the scummiest, and scumread him when he was at the towniest. That's not a natural progression Alisae.

When did I scumread him?

Quote the posts Norwee

in 1606 he says at some point I scumread Cycle Men after I townread him.
I tell him to quote the posts in which I actually scumread him because the truth is
I don't even scumread him
and he can't
instead he just doubles down on the read

You townread him when he was at the scummiest, and scumread him when he was at the towniest. That's not a natural progression Alisae.

When did I scumread him?

Quote the posts Norwee

Alright, call it fence-sitting. Call it whatever, you went from TR on Clemency, to changing your stance a lot, to deciding to TR him again and saying "he will probably flip town" after the hammer. Which is a typical scum way of appearing ignorant of the flips.

At this point, I have asked him so many questions that are aiming to try to show Norwee that his take on the events that happened in the game are just flat out wrong and I keep on asking him questions that challenge his views, but instead of re-evaluating and realizing that maybe he's fucking wrong, he comes to this conclusion.

He doesn't want to re-consider his point here because he as scum, sees me as lynchable and wants to keep on pushing it. He just changing his stance to suit his narative. The read itself is unnatural and Norwee is likely just scum trying to push someone he views as lynchable.

[humaneatingmonkey]

i assure you this is all wrong

[Green Crayons]

Looker is a very easy read
when I was scum with him he didn't even make any real attempts to solve or play the game and when we were town together he correctly identified scum!noms in a way that was confident and he believed in himself and was actively trying to poke other slots and try to find the motivations of others.
I see the exact samething I did in that game in here.

I'm sorry but this suggests a Looker-scum to me.