In post 422, Micc wrote:Time to start consolidating wagons folks. I prefer Leocosticte, would settle for Oobsy, and oppose chemist.
You were wrong about Dyrenz, so why would should anyone think you're right now? From my point of view, you've now falsely accused not just one, but TWO people. What are the odds of a townie doing that by accident?!
In post 422, Micc wrote:Time to start consolidating wagons folks. I prefer Leocosticte, would settle for Oobsy, and oppose chemist.
You were wrong about Dyrenz, so why would should anyone think you're right now? From my point of view, you've now falsely accused not just one, but TWO people. What are the odds of a townie doing that by accident?!
VOTE: Micc
Assuming the accuser is town and accuses two people at random:
First: 2/8 Scum, 6/8 Town. Accuses Town. Remove that town from the pool.
Second: 2/7 Scum, 5/7 Town. Accuses Town again.
Odds of both events happening: (6/8) * (5/7). About 54%. Not just plausible, but more likely to happen than not.
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:53 pm
by NorwegianboyEE
@Leucosticte
I see you are voting Micc. I'm not sure how i feel about that.
Micc would be useful to keep around if he is genuine. But he did just claim that he would "oppose" an chemist vote. So one good way to find out if Micc is genuine and still keep him around is voting Chemist. If Chemist flips mafia we can consider lynching Micc or Skitter30. If Chemist flips town then Micc and Skitter30 is more likely to be town.
I'm still open for lynching Mr Oobsy or maybe someone else, but i'm trying to figure out who'se flip would reveal the most information as well as potentially be a scum player.
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:01 pm
by NorwegianboyEE
And the reason i believe this would prove their alignment is because if they were scum and knew Chemist was town, i'm sure they would be completely ok with facilitating his mislynch. So either way his flip would be an good indication of alignments.
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:05 pm
by Farren
Thing is, accusations are not made at random (except maybe during RVS, but I'd hardly call those votes accusations). So arguing the odds at all isn't going to do much good. Better to counter the accusations with evidence to the contrary, or show why the accusations are otherwise flawed.
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:10 pm
by NorwegianboyEE
I believe finding out whether the Semi-Experienced players are genuine is our biggest priority right now. I don't want them taking control of the game as scum players, that's a big worry of mine. Therefore based on that logic, i believe voting Chemist is the best choice out of everyone. Who's with me?
VOTE: Chemist1422
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:10 pm
by Farren
In post 429, NorwegianboyEE wrote:And the reason i believe this would prove their alignment is because if they were scum and knew Chemist was town, i'm sure they would be completely ok with facilitating his mislynch. So either way his flip would be an good indication of alignments.
It might be evidentiary, but it wouldn't be proof.
Scum can and will defend members of the Town from time to time. Conversely, scum can and will question, vote for, and accuse their partners.
That being said, busing is risky as heck in a 9er. Even more risky given Dyrenz's claim - Trackers and Jailkeepers become much more dangerous to a lone scum, and one of them is almost certainly in the game.
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:26 am
by Chemist1422
In post 431, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I believe finding out whether the Semi-Experienced players are genuine is our biggest priority right now. I don't want them taking control of the game as scum players, that's a big worry of mine. Therefore based on that logic, i believe voting Chemist is the best choice out of everyone. Who's with me?
VOTE: Chemist1422
what
this isn't even an alignment-related reason you're just scared of my scum game that you've never seen???
In post 422, Micc wrote:Time to start consolidating wagons folks. I prefer Leocosticte, would settle for Oobsy, and oppose chemist.
You were wrong about Dyrenz, so why would should anyone think you're right now? From my point of view, you've now falsely accused not just one, but TWO people. What are the odds of a townie doing that by accident?!
VOTE: Micc
As Farren’s math correctly shows, the odds are better for than not. If you’re going to push me, please find some better reasoning than inaccurate reads because those are par for the course for everyone on Day 1.
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:37 am
by Farren
Leucosticte: why Micc over me? Both of us are voting you.
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:56 am
by Leucosticte
In post 435, Farren wrote:Leucosticte: why Micc over me? Both of us are voting you.
If you want it that badly, you can have it; it's fine with me.
UNVOTE: Micc VOTE: Farren
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:27 am
by Farren
My logic here:
skitter's already voting me. If Leucosticte is scum, then unless his partner is exactly skitter, it makes more sense for scum-Leucosticte to be trying to set me up as a potential consolidation target than to be trying to start a new wagon on Micc, especially as skitter appears to be tunneling. Or alternately pushing chemist, who already has some votes, unless his partner is exactly chemist - but obviously both can't be partners to scum-Leucosticte, so there is definitely a better choice than Micc available to scum-Leucosticte.
Maybe Leucosticte actually is Town and is just lashing out rather than faking an appeal to emotion and deliberately using bad logic. Let's investigate further. Over eight hours have passed, so *if* Leucosticte is Town and just pissed off at being voted for, he should have calmed down by now.
Based on your response, I am eliminating that "maybe" as a possibility.
So either you're Town-Leucosticte and pissed off, well after the heat of the moment, voting for me because you think scum-Me actively wants to be voted for - or you're scum-Leucosticte. Or I'm missing something.
Explain, please.
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:02 pm
by Mr Oobsy
I know
Dyrenz
is
Town
because he claimed an extremely confirmable class. If he lied, we'd know tomorrow.
I know
Leucosticte
is
Town
because the 4 threads he's started during this game demonstrate a sincere effort to learn the best way to play
In post 439, Chemist1422 wrote:That’s extremely angleshooty and against the rules so don’t make reads like that
This was about the Leuco read
Whose? Mine or Mr Oobsy's?
oobsy's
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:01 pm
by Chemist1422
In post 441, Mr Oobsy wrote:I did not seek out that evidence, I stumbled upon it. I can't help but make a read off it and I see no rule prohibiting me from sharing it.
This falls under the "no outside influences" section of the site rules
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:33 pm
by Mr Oobsy
Let's leave this up to the moderator.
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:46 pm
by Leucosticte
I mean, that's kinda meta. At any rate, I play this game on more than one site, and we just had a game on the other site, wlf-071, where there was a random shooting. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Wlf-071
I actually think it might be against the rules of this site if I were to write threads about ongoing games.
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:03 pm
by skitter30
In post 384, Farren wrote:My homework for the night - reading some completed games of skitter and Chemist. Not going to bother with Micc; strong Town-read there.
why is micc a townread ?
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:05 pm
by skitter30
In post 388, Farren wrote:conclusion about skitter based on games I read: not going to be productive to continue reading. I'm seeing both town and scum parallels, comparing against three town games and one scum game. More town than scum, but I read more town games than scum games, because duh.
skitter: what if anything has caused your read on Chemist to change since post 131 ?
i've been told i'm hard to read :p
basically i still don't like his rvs post but like he hasn't done much else ai and i think people are scummier and being suspicious of him became like a ~popular~ opinion so i'm wondering if scum were piling on when it was popular