In post 422, Hoctac wrote:It's not a stupid conversation. We're establishing the fact that your posts at the start of the game are definitely not NAI.
If it's a genuine slip, you are town.
Otherwise, you are scum, since you wouldn't be confused about that detail.
And now we are arguing about whether it’s genuine, which of course I will say it is and of course you are saying it’s not. If you believe it’s fake, then I’m not sure how I’m supposed to convince you it’s genuine.
Therefore this is a stupid conversation to be having.
- Daenerys
Then why are you even responding to it?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:56 am
by Daenerys and Dragons
Because hoctac asked a question about it?
- Daenerys
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:00 am
by Mohab500
In post 238, dsjstr wrote:Part of that has to do with the slip I saw,
In post 13, Morning Tweet wrote:First impressions: i feel that it is unlikely scum placed 2 of themselves in group 2, or 2 of themselves in group 3
That seems like a lot of risk, because at a glance you'd expect us to probably pick group 2 or 3 for the lynch, and it'd be hard to stop it if one of those groups gained traction. all it would take is one scummy member in the group and you'd lose that group and 2/3rds of the scumteam
Whereas if you placed 2+ scum inside group one, it'd likely be easier to steer the lynch away from one to one of the smaller groups.
after all, there's at least 5 town in group one and im sure at least some of them would not want to die
I just realized while writing this that if we lynch group one, and there's zero scum in there, we lose the game immediately. ack!
I just noticed that MT referred to the town as "them" when saying that there are at least 5 town in group 1 and they should not vote for their own group. This seems weird to me and looks like MT could have slipped. If they are town then they
would have included them self as part of the town. Instead he talks about town being other people, now what does this have to do with group 3? If you look at MT's first read list you will notice that Mohab is the only strong town read. I personally
don't see the reasoning to be strong Mohab could have just faked that he wanted to lynch his own group and then he actually does change his vote. MT continues to town read him as they both switch over to group 2 which had gained some traction.
Just realized that group 2 is also at L-3, but basically I am scum reading Mahob because I scum read MT but that's just one person from group 1 so it would be better to go for group 3.
I don't get this post at all, you make several paragraphs about how some guy referred to a hypothetical group with 'them' instead of 'us'. The rest of your posts give me a similar vibe, too: seems like you're writing for the sake of writing, and reading for the sake of reading, not actually trying to do anything useful or help us find scum at all. I am starting to get an Albert + dsj scum feel.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:08 am
by Mohab500
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:09 am
by Mohab500
Took me some time, but I got there. I am glad I could finally find time to properly dedicate to a mafiascum game, as each time prior I'd end up not contributing much due to lack of time.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:13 am
by Hoctac
Is yellow above or below null?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:15 am
by Mohab500
Yellow is exactly null, I would've made varying degrees but I honestly couldn't be bothered to learn the colour formats and stuff.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:16 am
by Morning Tweet
Albert you act more confident than i would if it were mod confirmed to me that there's 3 scum in group one. How are you so certain scum was lazy. how
I only skimmed but ill reread better later. I am only willing to vote group two right now. To vote group one id need like, four scumreads in there.
and that is not happening
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:17 am
by Mohab500
I am going to break my own rule of not talking about partitions because I am the one who made the rule (or because I think it's a good idea?), but with how sure I am that there is one scum in group 1, I am surprised I found no scum reads at all on anyone from group 1. I guess if I had to, I'd say Adorable is the scum, but I am honestly not really convinced that's the case either way. Could there really be no scum in group 1?
mohab i promise u there is like 2 scum in group one, minimum.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:40 am
by Hoctac
In post 432, Morning Tweet wrote:Albert you act more confident than i would if it were mod confirmed to me that there's 3 scum in group one. How are you so certain scum was lazy. how
I only skimmed but ill reread better later.
I am only willing to vote group two right now.
To vote group one id need like, four scumreads in there.
We go down to 4 players with 2 chances to hit scum (only 1 nightkill in the game, remember?)
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:41 am
by Daenerys and Dragons
not sure what to do with ABR
-dragons
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:46 am
by Morning Tweet
If 2 scum in group one -> 4 person MYLO is a good result, then we should probably choose group one
5 players -> nightkill -> 4 players 2|1|1
You have to pick one of the 1 groups. Or you can pick the 2, depending on WIFOM
3 players 1|1|1 LYLO
if we think this gives town best chance of winning, then id vote group one cause i feel pretty strongly theres 2 scum in it. Technically we're risking the game on there being 2+ but we may as well live a little
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:47 am
by Albert B. Rampage
In post 432, Morning Tweet wrote:To vote group one id need like, four scumreads in there. and that is not happening
There's only 3 scum in this setup, what are you talking about?
This game is easily solved by math why the fuck are people trying to overcomplicate it?
2 lynches to catch 1 scum. Easy odds for town to win.
This is my plan to win. Obviously all the scum are going to complain and some town want to play instead of be eliminated early. This is the way the scum decided to partition, what do you want me to tell you? There's an easy and fast way to win because scum made it this way so they can throw group 1 and 2 under the bus using sophistry.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:49 am
by Albert B. Rampage
In post 438, Morning Tweet wrote:if we think this gives town best chance of winning, then id vote group one cause i feel pretty strongly theres 2 scum in it. Technically we're risking the game on there being 2+ but we may as well live a little
You are exactly right and that is why you are my favorite!
We should take a calculated risk rather than argue and create drama.
Scumhunting day 1 is fake as fuck.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:49 am
by Hoctac
In post 438, Morning Tweet wrote:If 2 scum in group one -> 4 person MYLO is a good result, then we should probably choose group one
5 players -> nightkill -> 4 players 2|1|1
You have to pick one of the 1 groups. Or you can pick the 2, depending on WIFOM
3 players 1|1|1 LYLO
if we think this gives town best chance of winning, then id vote group one cause i feel pretty strongly theres 2 scum in it. Technically we're risking the game on there being 2+ but we may as well live a little
Exactly. Our EV 100% goes up if we lynch Group 1 and there's exactly 2 scum in here.
You agree with me that it's very likely there's 2+. So, time to self-destruct?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:51 am
by Morning Tweet
@ABR cause if I only have 3 scumreads then im pretty sure I'd be wrong on at least one
That was based on lynching group one if theres 3 scum in there tho. I am not really sure if lynching group one with 2 scum in there is optimal or not. Hoctac says it is. If i figure out that 3v1 mylo is the best odds were gonna get, then ill vote group one
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:51 am
by Hoctac
What if scum are galaxy braining it and put their lynchbait player with 2 other lynchabaits to throw us off Group 3??
I'm on to you.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:53 am
by Morning Tweet
If 2 scum is a positive result for us, then the only scenario left we need to make sure isnt true is 1/1/1. At least imo. I think any other arrangement of scum with 1 in group one other than 1/1/1 kinda sucks
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:53 am
by Hoctac
It's not mylo. Mylo means "mislynch or lose". 3v1 without a nightkill is the day before Lylo. There'll be information to analyse based on group placements and interactions, so the odds of lynching the last scum in 2 tries (or 1 if they pick the group of 2) should be greater than 50% if town isn't duffers.
In post 438, Morning Tweet wrote:If 2 scum in group one -> 4 person MYLO is a good result, then we should probably choose group one
5 players -> nightkill -> 4 players 2|1|1
You have to pick one of the 1 groups. Or you can pick the 2, depending on WIFOM
3 players 1|1|1 LYLO
if we think this gives town best chance of winning, then id vote group one cause i feel pretty strongly theres 2 scum in it. Technically we're risking the game on there being 2+ but we may as well live a little
Exactly. Our EV 100% goes up if we lynch Group 1 and there's exactly 2 scum in here.
You agree with me that it's very likely there's 2+. So, time to self-destruct?
You are both correct.
Everyone should watch this. Start at 1:12. This game is just math.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:59 am
by Albert B. Rampage
Honestly, if the scum pulled something crazy like 0/1/2 then they should win and I want to forget about this game as quickly as it started.
No way Jose.
Common sense tells us its 2/0/1 or 3/0/0 and math tells us the best lynch is group 1. All the real scumhunting should start after we've thanked group 1 off the stage like a Vegas hypnotist that didn't get the desired reaction from an audience volunteer.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 8:03 am
by Morning Tweet
i am not totally ready mentally to do it yet. will get back to you later
scumteam could still be {Someone in Group 1 who wants Group 1 dead} + {ABR} + {Clidd/Mohab/enonis/asjr}.
must be sure that it isnt the case. i dont think its 100% outside of the realm of possibility scum tries to lynch group 1 with 1/1/1 or 1/2/0. But i definitely think it's unlikely