Mafiascum.net

HD is a total null for me. Mayybee he's scum lurking, idk.

BTW, I take back my Thad scum argument. Neighbor is a normal modifier so Thad can really be a X-shot vig so we'll see if there are three kills in the next few nights.

Nero has actually been townposting lately.

It irritates me that we are somehow, inexplicably, lynching neither Seanald nor Rena today. Them's the breaks, I guess.

In post 4696, Nero Cain wrote:No, I agree with Bulb here. I don't really buy Slandaar's excuse that "we should assume the maximum amount of scum" + Scumthez already speculated on there being "7-8 scum"

+ there's atleast one scum in the neighborhoods and Slandaar makes a good bet. CTD might be scum afterall. He's ignoring discussing his neighborhood big time.

vote:Slandaar

Khan
Slandaar

So nero and bulba are scum together. Both attacking each other hardcore, then magically ending up on the same bullshit wagon. Nero's reasoning is even more terrible and illustrates a glaring flaw in bulba's as well: if thez already slipped that there are 7 to 8 scum, how is it scummy for Slandaar to go with this assumption as town? For that matter, if Nero thinks thez slipped the number of scum, why is he playing as if he was assuming 3-men teams?

If Slandaar is lynched over Bulba and Nero, it's a travesty.

This slandaar wagon fucking reeks yo



Bulb v Slandaar is looks way more like Bulb v Molla than anything in NY 163.

In post 4702, Cephrir wrote:Nero has actually been townposting lately.

It irritates me that we are somehow, inexplicably, lynching neither Seanald nor Rena today. Them's the breaks, I guess.

Vote: Slandaar

Yeah this guy is scum too

And that's why we should be lynching Rena/Seanald. But apparently that's just too much to ask for.

In post 4703, CrashTextDummie wrote:if Nero thinks thez slipped the number of scum, why is he playing as if he was assuming 3-men teams?

not what I said. Read better.

Why are you ignoring my questions about you and Slan's neighborhood?

I also do not care who dies between Bulb and Slan 'cause I want both gone before lylo.

In post 4703, CrashTextDummie wrote:if thez already slipped that there are 7 to 8 scum, how is it scummy for Slandaar to go with this assumption as town

So why was it townie for Slan to assume 8 scum after scum already did?

he gets a built in defense of "scum would never do that"

I should be on again before deadline so feel free to start a wagon that isn't stupid

yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

In post 4710, Nero Cain wrote:yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

How did you conclude that 1/3 is more likely than 1/4?

In post 4711, Desperado wrote:

In post 4710, Nero Cain wrote:yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

How did you conclude that 1/3 is more likely than 1/4?

Because each scum group is competing against the other. (Potential for cross-kills)

I like how Nero Cain is just now questioning the 8 scum = scumslip theory. When I questioned it, he declared I was defending Slandaar.

In post 4711, Desperado wrote:

In post 4710, Nero Cain wrote:yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

How did you conclude that 1/3 is more likely than 1/4?

I might be wrong here...for some reason I had it in my head that scum were like 30ish% of a game. Do you think Slan and Thez earlier slipped the number of scum?

In post 4712, Kublai Khan wrote:When I questioned it, he declared I was defending Slandaar.

So why did you not deny that you were defending Slan when I accused you of it? 'Cause you were and you knew it.

In post 4712, Kublai Khan wrote:

In post 4711, Desperado wrote:

In post 4710, Nero Cain wrote:yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

How did you conclude that 1/3 is more likely than 1/4?

Because each scum group is competing against the other. (Potential for cross-kills)

I like how Nero Cain is just now questioning the 8 scum = scumslip theory. When I questioned it, he declared I was defending Slandaar.

OK, but since we've already talked about Nero's large game experience re: multiball, we have 11 large games that I would say represents a reasonable cross section of possibilities.

WWE - 21 players, two scum teams, 5 scum, 24%
Gears of War mafia - 21 players, two scum teams, 6 scum, 29%
How two and a half friends - 21 players, scum team + SK team, 5 scum, 24%
Meta Playstyle mafia - 20 players, scum team + SK, 6 scum, 30%
Harry Potter - 21 players, scum team + SK, 5 scum, 24%
NY 163 - 17 players, scum team, 5 scum, 30%
NY 161 - 21 players, scum team, 5 scum, 24%
NY 160 - 15 players, scum team + SK, 4 scum, 27%
NY 151 - 24 players, scum team + SK, 7 scum, 29%
NY 150 - 17 players, scum team, 4 scum, 23%
NY 143 - 21 players, two scum teams, 6 scum, 29%

Not a single one has 33% scum. If anything I think 7 scum with is probably the most likely, as almost every game falls between somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4. 7 falls right into that sweet spot at 29%.

In post 4713, Nero Cain wrote:

In post 4711, Desperado wrote:

In post 4710, Nero Cain wrote:yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

How did you conclude that 1/3 is more likely than 1/4?

I might be wrong here...for some reason I had it in my head that scum were like 30ish% of a game. Do you think Slan and Thez earlier slipped the number of scum?

I think thez saying 7-8 scum and then flipping scum is more damning than Slandaar speculating 8 scum after that. And Bulb's attempt to call it a scumslip because town should always assume the best case scenario is monumentally stupid.

In post 4712, Kublai Khan wrote:When I questioned it, he declared I was defending Slandaar.

So why did you not deny that you were defending Slan when I accused you of it? 'Cause you were and you knew it.[/quote]

Meant to lop that 2nd quote off, whoops

In post 4713, Nero Cain wrote:

In post 4712, Kublai Khan wrote:When I questioned it, he declared I was defending Slandaar.

So why did you not deny that you were defending Slan when I accused you of it? 'Cause you were and you knew it.

I wasn't defending Slandaar then any more than you are now. Bulbazak was attacking on setup speculation and that setup spec didn't feel kosher. When you attacked me, I thought you were trying to deflect attention from yourself. Then I looked and you likely weren't, so I bailed.

I'm defending Slandaar?

In post 4718, Nero Cain wrote:I'm defending Slandaar?

As much as I am.

(Hint: My point is that I'm not and your accusation is, and has been, false.)

In post 4718, Nero Cain wrote:I'm defending Slandaar?

No, Slandaar is ignoring you and me regarding his neighbor, CTD. CTD, meanwhile, is attacking anyone who is suspecting Slandaar. I think if Slandaar gets lynched and flips town, CTD will more likely be scum. Or, scum-Slandaar doesn't want to give this thoughts on town-CTD because.........................................why?

I also like the concept of a killer per neighborhood. I guess there could be 6 town neighbors in a 24 player game, but does anyone believe that?

Or there could be three neighborhoods that only one scumteam has access to. So who got it, Red or Blue? Methinks both.

Not doing Nero or Bulba today.

The theory that I have to be redscum because I focused on blue after blue flips is getting a little stale.

Agreed on the neighborhoods theory. But Seanald is still a better lynch than Slandaar. There's still time ~~

In post 4681, Rena wrote:

In post 4678, Cephrir wrote:(Also, omgus can be a scumtell, depending, and in this case, with these wagons where they are, I think it is. There's also the aspect where you're scum so I tend to interpret additional actions as scum motivated)

If you're planning on fake claiming cop, it wont work. Insane cop is not a normal role.

Let me know when someone has a reason for us not lynching this on the spot

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: Strongly dislike most of Bulba's arguments against Slandaar, particularly the "4 scum per team" argument:

In post 4607, Bulbazak wrote:The typical scum to town ratio is 1:3, which would make the number of scum in this game 6. Using that logic, there would be 3 scum per team in a multiball situation, which we seem to be in. However, you assume that there is 4.

The only way I could see anyone coming to this conclusion is if they were on a scum team and knew that there were 4 players on the team

, which means that they would anticipate 8 scum. Therefore, your statement stating that there are 4 on each team is a scumslip.

So the only way Bulba can make sense of the situation is that Slandaar is himself on a 4-man scum team. But if that is his suspicion, why then is it impossible for a pro-town player (i.e. Slandaar) to make the assumption that we are dealing with 4-man scum teams? It's a completely illogical and circular argument and so far removed from being a scumslip it's not even funny.

How would he come up with such a number? 6 is understandable, given the 1:3 ratio, but pulling 8 out of thin air is not. The question that should be asked is: Why did he pick 8 scum rather than 6? His answer is that there were too many people that he wanted to call scum, so he just picked a bigger number, which is a crap explanation. Seriously, the first thought that should be entering into a town player's head in that instance is "I have too many scumspects. Not all of them are right.", not "I have too many scumspects. There must be more scum in the game than normal."

Also, when has Slandaar been "pro-town"?

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: He then went on to argue that it's better for town to assume the best-case scenario of 3-man scumteams, which is a highly debatable theory stance at best, but the implication was that only scum would take the worst-case scenario approach, and that simply doesn't hold any water.

Scum would assume the worst case scenario for town, not necessarily the worst case scenario for them. That's why scum will consider lylo before town will, because they have to make it to lylo, where town doesn't want to. Therefore, if someone is making a worst case scenario assumption about the setup, they're most likely not town, but scum who actually has prior knowledge about the setup.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: Fact is that scum:town ratios are not set in stone and can be balanced by the power-level of the town. This line of attack is completely cooked up.

Still, there tend to be typical expected scum:town ratios, 1:3 being the main one. I'm not saying that all games follow them, I'm just saying that anybody being sure otherwise in a closed setup should be met with suspicion.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: I have my own reservations about Slandaar.

Funny, you're not showing it.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: I think his play today has been noticeably different from the first 2 days, he's been a much less forceful presence and I strongly disagree with several of his reads. I do not however see this as a strong indication of him being scum in itself and no one has pointed out any actions of his that clearly read as scum-motivated to my knowledge.

You previously called him a "pro-town player", but now you seem doubtful about his alignment. This whole paragraph reads a little wishy washy to me.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: Balance speculation wrt to the neighborhoods should come into consideration, but not before we actually

know

anything solid based on flips.

So that precludes me thinking that Slandaar is scum? Regardless of flips atm, we can make a pretty good guess about how neighborhoods are balanced given the setup right now. Given what we know so far, 3 neighborhoods, each with a killing role (one each for blue/red/town), makes sense from a balance point of view. After Slandaar's scum flip, I will use this information accordingly to lynch the other scum neighbor.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: Bulba's case against Slandaar is all assumptions, some of which don't make sense to me.

What doesn't make sense? You can always ask me instead of going "I don't understand. Scum!".

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: If he was doubtful of ThAd's claim before, I don't see what happened to change his mind

The more I thought about it, the harder time I had seeing ThAd being scum fake claiming vig., mostly due to his attitude and willingness not to play ball with the town. I would think that scum in such a position would want to please the town and get on their good side, i.e. gain towncred. ThAd, however, is not interested in this at all. Don't get me wrong, I still think he's dangerous for the town, and I spent an inconsiderable amount of time trying to decide if he should be policy lynched, which is big for me, because I don't really care for PLs.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: I get the strong impression that he's tailoring his assumptions to the desired conclusion, and not the other way around.

How does that make me scum?

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: Lastly, I agree that Bulba's "two blue neighbors would be unfair to red" looks like a slip. He's tried to play it down by stating that "unfair to town" was his main point and "unfair to red" merely a balance after-thought, but i really don't think that fairness between scum-teams should ever enter a town-player's mind at all.

I never said that! I said that either team having more than 2 scum in the neighborhoods would be . And given that this game was overly reviewed, whether or not something is balanced should come into consideration.

In post 4693, Kublai Khan wrote: Where is it written that all neighborhoods must be "balanced" against each other? You're making the assumption that mirroring is the only way to balance a single aspect of a game setup, and even then you're leaving out possible ideas (say.. one neighborhood is a red/blue pairing).

Again, given how often this setup was reviewed, I'd say that the neighborhoods are likely balanced. I would say that the composition of the neighborhoods were determined beforehand, and the players were simply placed in those roles, rather than players placed into neighborhoods and then given the roles. Again, I ruled out other possible combinations via PoE. Now if you want to argue that my PoE is wrong, I'm all ears.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: mastin2 has been a player and a mod for a long time and can certainly balance a PR heavier Scum Team A with Scum Team B having a say in who the vig targets.

Are you suggesting that one team has more PRs on it and is stronger than another team?

In post 4694, Slandaar wrote: Here is my wagon broken down

PV: I am voting Slandar because he has caught me.
Bulbazak: I am voting Slandaar because lol 4 scum. I make lots of assumptions too that make no sense but 4 scum? die.
Rena: Gotta save my buddy Bulbazak! Hope noone looks into my reasoning though! Also Slandaar has caught me.
AK: Well Gotta get rid of Slandaar he caught 2 of my buddies and Me!

Sums up things adequately.

So people start to see you as scummy, and your first reaction is to call everyone on your wagon scum?

In post 4703, CrashTextDummie wrote: So nero and bulba are scum together. Both attacking each other hardcore, then magically ending up on the same bullshit wagon.

Nero's reaction to Slandaar's slip made me reconsider my read on him. I started flashing back to Metal Overlord in Voided's nightless game. I'm more than willing to give him a break in order to lynch scum.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: Nero's reasoning is even more terrible and illustrates a glaring flaw in bulba's as well: if thez already slipped that there are 7 to 8 scum

To be honest, I forgot that Thez had said that until Nero brought it up. I'm assuming almost everyone else has as well, since we've never really seriously discussed such a possibility.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: how is it scummy for Slandaar to go with this assumption as town?

Again, I don't think anybody seriously considered what Thez said, and we were still considering 2 3-man scum teams. Slandaar then magically appears and says there are 2 4-man scum teams, yet he never saw fit to say something before when everybody was discussing 3-man scum teams? I don't see him doing that as town. At the very least he'd say, "You know, I think you may be wrong there.", but he never did. He slipped intimate knowledge about the setup that he shouldn't have known as town. Deal with it.

Also, how is Nero scummy for saying that we're likely in multi-ball before it became common knowledge, yet Slandaar is not scummy for saying that we are dealing with 2 4-man scum teams without any indication that he's right?

In post 4704, Desperado wrote: Bulb v Slandaar is looks way more like Bulb v Molla than anything in NY 163.

How so?

In post 4707, Nero Cain wrote: I also do not care who dies between Bulb and Slan 'cause I want both gone before lylo.

Why are you even thinking about Lylo?!?

In post 4710, Nero Cain wrote:yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

Backpedal ahoy!

Nevermind, Nero is still scum.

In post 4723, Bulbazak wrote:

In post 4694, Slandaar wrote: Here is my wagon broken down

PV: I am voting Slandar because he has caught me.
Bulbazak: I am voting Slandaar because lol 4 scum. I make lots of assumptions too that make no sense but 4 scum? die.
Rena: Gotta save my buddy Bulbazak! Hope noone looks into my reasoning though! Also Slandaar has caught me.
AK: Well Gotta get rid of Slandaar he caught 2 of my buddies and Me!

Sums up things adequately.

So people start to see you as scummy, and your first reaction is to call everyone on your wagon scum?

Uh good try but I had them all as scum long ago you can see it in my reads post but go further back shall we?

I made a case on PV today
I voted AK with a case today
I want to lynch obvscum Rena

And then there is you who has been in my scumlist all game.

Don't you find that even remotely suspicious?

Vote Rena

You should probbly claim also.