@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:30 pm
by Ame
In post 499, Kanna wrote:i mean...i've disagreed with most of her takes so i don't know if you want my opinion (sorry)
The line addressed toward me in particular.
You 5 are my current scum pool.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:33 pm
by Kanna
In post 375, Hoctac wrote:Hoctac - Sometimes misreads his role PM. He's probably fine, but there's always the possibility. Nulltown.
Please explain this because this is the exact opposite to how I'm seeing it.
If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:33 pm
by Ame
In post 500, Kanna wrote:@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.
Given the reasoning I provided, do you maintain yours?
In post 500, Kanna wrote:@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.
Given the reasoning I provided, do you maintain yours?
i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealing
(๑•̀ㅁ•́๑)✧
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:37 pm
by Cat Scratch Fever
I just realized I haven’t posted a single cat gif this game
oh whoops, yeah my quotes got messed up... I meant this:
In post 484, Ame wrote:Even if we think there are 2+ scum in group 1, I think lynching it would be bad gameplay. I haven't tried to do that math, but I suspect that going that route has a poor EV relative to the others.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:40 pm
by Ame
In post 506, Kanna wrote:i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealing
The fact that the distributions are built this way is exactly why it's likely they thought of it beforehand! It was obviously made by someone with foresight. If you had no knowledge of how the distributions were made today, how do you think you would have made them coming into the game?
your faction is responsible for forming a partition each night. i will take whatever the last bolded proposition is, as long as it places every living player (or every player that will be living come morning) in one of the three groups, and no groups are empty. you may ask me randomize the order of the groups and the players within the groups. if i don't get a valid partition i will create one randomly.
on the first night, you may also select someone to be killed.
you win when you control half the vote during a day phase, or when nothing can stop that from happening.
please confirm by proposing a partition for day 1 (or affirming another suggestion)
Hmm, this will create more WIFOM. It obviously justifies 1-?-? because that would be the only time the mafia could pull it off.
What are you saying here?
The fact that the mafia only have the option to NK once, they could use it to win the game and if G1 gets lynched with only 1 member they will win. Thinking about it more, that rule was only in the mafia role card so it would make sense if they felt
In post 506, Kanna wrote:i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealing
The fact that the distributions are built this way is exactly why it's likely they thought of it beforehand! It was obviously made by someone with foresight. If you had no knowledge of how the distributions were made today, how do you think you would have made them coming into the game?
it would depend on who was on my team was i think. without thinking about that...i would go for maybe 1 or 2 big groups and one small group? scum using numbers here is the biggest advantage they have.
wHICH is why i'm worried we'll be effed if we lynch wrong today
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:46 pm
by Cat Scratch Fever
I need enomis to come back
I doubt I’ll townread ABR but if I can townread everyone else with confidence, I’d be open to lynching group 1
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:47 pm
by dsjstr
enomis is probably just not that interested, unless he was told to say that. Probably going to stop scum reading him unless he says some scummy stuff if he ever returns.
What are your reads on people outside of group 3? Can you do one of those colored in reads lists?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:49 pm
by Ame
In post 502, Kanna wrote:If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.
This is just based on my conversation with Charmander earlier (sorry Char I don't have your name off the top of my head), I haven't had the time to look into the math yet, but intuitively it seems like we have a lower probability of winning going the G1 route. If there is 1 scum, we lose automatically. If there are 2 scum, scum has a 2/3 chance of winning the next day. If we lynch G2 and there is 1 scum, then...If we lynch G3 and there is 1 scum...If we lynch G3 and there is 2 scum... (and that's where my brain is stopping). But I think going the route of minimizing casualties is better for our chances of winning, particularly because we can get more days and scumhunting out of it and will have flips to work off of. Whereas going G1 we are essentially gambling without prior knowledge of who is on the scum team and how they think. Going one of the other groups actually gives us
evidence
of how they think and we can work from there. Right now we are just random guessing and going in circles.
What are your reads on people outside of group 3? Can you do one of those colored in reads lists?
By reads I meant if they wanted group 1 lynched then they would have put the people from group 3 into it. Which means that they would not want group 1 lynched really just WIFOM stuff.
Ame, our EV goes up if we lynch Group 1 and there's 2 scum in there. You get 2 chances to lynch scum after it becomes 3v1 (or 1 chance if you lynch the group of 2). Don't worry, the maths checks out.
In post 375, Hoctac wrote:Hoctac - Sometimes misreads his role PM. He's probably fine, but there's always the possibility. Nulltown.
Please explain this because this is the exact opposite to how I'm seeing it.
If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.
?
There are times I view my role PM and think I'm town, despite being scum. So, there is a possibility (around 20%) I could be scum misreading my role PM. Sorry, I refuse to recheck my role PM now, because I feel invested in town's wincon and I think I'm in too deep at this point, but I thought it would be better if I was transparent about it.
