Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:29 pm
@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.
The line addressed toward me in particular.In post 499, Kanna wrote:i mean...i've disagreed with most of her takes so i don't know if you want my opinion (sorry)
Please explain this because this is the exact opposite to how I'm seeing it.In post 375, Hoctac wrote:Hoctac - Sometimes misreads his role PM. He's probably fine, but there's always the possibility. Nulltown.
Given the reasoning I provided, do you maintain yours?In post 500, Kanna wrote:@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.
i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealingIn post 503, Ame wrote:Given the reasoning I provided, do you maintain yours?In post 500, Kanna wrote:@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.
oh whoops, yeah my quotes got messed up... I meant this:In post 504, Ame wrote:If 502 addressed toward me?
In post 484, Ame wrote:Even if we think there are 2+ scum in group 1, I think lynching it would be bad gameplay. I haven't tried to do that math, but I suspect that going that route has a poor EV relative to the others.
The fact that the distributions are built this way is exactly why it's likely they thought of it beforehand! It was obviously made by someone with foresight. If you had no knowledge of how the distributions were made today, how do you think you would have made them coming into the game?In post 506, Kanna wrote:i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealing
can you explain why?In post 501, Ame wrote:You 5 are my current scum pool.
it would depend on who was on my team was i think. without thinking about that...i would go for maybe 1 or 2 big groups and one small group? scum using numbers here is the biggest advantage they have.In post 509, Ame wrote:The fact that the distributions are built this way is exactly why it's likely they thought of it beforehand! It was obviously made by someone with foresight. If you had no knowledge of how the distributions were made today, how do you think you would have made them coming into the game?In post 506, Kanna wrote:i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealing
What are your reads on people outside of group 3? Can you do one of those colored in reads lists?In post 512, dsjstr wrote:Although my reads say otherwise
This is just based on my conversation with Charmander earlier (sorry Char I don't have your name off the top of my head), I haven't had the time to look into the math yet, but intuitively it seems like we have a lower probability of winning going the G1 route. If there is 1 scum, we lose automatically. If there are 2 scum, scum has a 2/3 chance of winning the next day. If we lynch G2 and there is 1 scum, then...If we lynch G3 and there is 1 scum...If we lynch G3 and there is 2 scum... (and that's where my brain is stopping). But I think going the route of minimizing casualties is better for our chances of winning, particularly because we can get more days and scumhunting out of it and will have flips to work off of. Whereas going G1 we are essentially gambling without prior knowledge of who is on the scum team and how they think. Going one of the other groups actually gives usIn post 502, Kanna wrote:If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.
Yes.In post 510, Kanna wrote:can you explain why?
By reads I meant if they wanted group 1 lynched then they would have put the people from group 3 into it. Which means that they would not want group 1 lynched really just WIFOM stuff.In post 516, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:What are your reads on people outside of group 3? Can you do one of those colored in reads lists?In post 512, dsjstr wrote:Although my reads say otherwise
About timeIn post 507, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I just realized I haven’t posted a single cat gif this game
Spoiler:
(๑•̀ㅁ•́๑)✧ anticipation? ??
In post 502, Kanna wrote:Please explain this because this is the exact opposite to how I'm seeing it.In post 375, Hoctac wrote:Hoctac - Sometimes misreads his role PM. He's probably fine, but there's always the possibility. Nulltown.
If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.