In post 502, Kanna wrote:If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.
This is just based on my conversation with Charmander earlier (sorry Char I don't have your name off the top of my head), I haven't had the time to look into the math yet, but intuitively it seems like we have a lower probability of winning going the G1 route. If there is 1 scum, we lose automatically. If there are 2 scum, scum has a 2/3 chance of winning the next day. If we lynch G2 and there is 1 scum, then...If we lynch G3 and there is 1 scum...If we lynch G3 and there is 2 scum... (and that's where my brain is stopping). But I think going the route of minimizing casualties is better for our chances of winning, particularly because we can get more days and scumhunting out of it and will have flips to work off of. Whereas going G1 we are essentially gambling without prior knowledge of who is on the scum team and how they think. Going one of the other groups actually gives us
evidence
of how they think and we can work from there. Right now we are just random guessing and going in circles.
pedit: enomis, that's it
also with this, it should be noted that SCUM decide on partitions. we can't even lynch who we want. scum aren't going to play nice.
if you think there are 2 scum in 2, whether it's me/hoctoc/raya, voting group 1 should be the best choice.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:13 pm
by Kanna
@hoctac; don't worry, i may or may not have another cosmic-brain read on you. not that it matters.
In post 357, Adorable wrote:The players in Group 3 are scummy and I was also going to vote there yesterday and then I started to think scum must have looked up the players completed games which makes me think the players on Group 3 get scum read more often than me.
So why not put you in Group 2 if they really don't want Group 1 lynched?
Could you address this please, Puff?
I pretty much said this on #350. Two or three scum in Group 1 I think they put me on Group 1 and plan on lynching on Group 2 or Group 3 on day 1 and on day 2 they would put me in a group that would get lynched.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:16 pm
by dsjstr
Who other than Albert and clidd gave reasons why there wouldn't be mafia in group 2? I find that group hard to read but it seemed like both of them had an agenda for their respective votes.
In post 481, Adorable wrote:If you think it is 1/1/1 and think I'm the only scum in Group 1, then this would mean my scum buddies who put only me in Group 1 would expect me to do some power wolfing taking control of the game
No? Scum would want to get group 1 lynched in that case, and you would be deliberately playing scummy. Why would you think the opposite...?
As it is, you’re pretty scummy. I’m not sure if you’re deliberately playing scummy though.
Majority of the players don't want to lynch in Group 1 and that would make me look really bad and scummy for saying this if this is 1/1/1. I'm not going to go for that weird angle on day 1 with me being the only scum in Group 1.
In post 357, Adorable wrote:The players in Group 3 are scummy and I was also going to vote there yesterday and then I started to think scum must have looked up the players completed games which makes me think the players on Group 3 get scum read more often than me.
So why not put you in Group 2 if they really don't want Group 1 lynched?
Could you address this please, Puff?
I pretty much said this on #350. Two or three scum in Group 1 I think they put me on Group 1 and plan on lynching on Group 2 or Group 3 on day 1 and on day 2 they would put me in a group that would get lynched.
I don't really get the logic there though, Puff. You said earlier you thought they put 3 players that were scummier than you in Group 3, so that they would get lynched. Why wouldn't they apply the same logic to group 2, and put you there? If their goal is to get any group but 1 lynched, it seems odd to put you in there, given your logic of yourself being the 4th easiest to scumread player in the game.
Do you really think the scumteam take this plan:
Make Group 1 towny except for Puff. We want her to be the only scummy person in Group 1.
Next day, we put Puff in a smaller group so she can be lynched.
Seems a little convoluted, no?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:31 pm
by Ame
Also one of my top :3
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:53 pm
by Hoctac
Relaxing, I like it. Are you trying to lull me into a false sense of security?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:56 pm
by Ame
post hoc
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:57 pm
by Hoctac
The journey of lynching Group 1:
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:59 pm
by Morning Tweet
Should i try to read more closely into this game, or is that a giant waste of time when i can just vote group one?
OH NO
im starting to become albert
Albert you have to marry me if i vote group one and it turns out that it isn't 1/1/1. deal?
Reading through Clidd's posts, I change my mind, he's obvtown. So is ARB. dsj is also town. So unless Mo and Char (oh my god why wont this stick in my brain?) are both scum, I think this is safe.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:51 pm
by Ame
I think scum is probably Raya, Char, and adorbs?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:52 pm
by Ame
Alternatively, the team is exactly MT, ARB, and Char and we just lose here.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:56 pm
by Morning Tweet
I think if we're going to just lose right here, it's {Hoctac/Kanna/D&D}??? + {ABR} + {ds/Mohab}???
i havent been putting in as much effort reading thru as id like
I really don't think there's 2 scum outside of group #1. I feel its pretty likely there's 1 scum outside. 3 in group #1 is a bad plan for scum to have taken.
so voting group #1 is in theory our ticket to 3v1
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:58 pm
by dsjstr
MT you're still on group 2
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:59 pm
by dsjstr
Also what changed your mind about mohab?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:59 pm
by Morning Tweet
We really have been had if it is 1/1/1 though
I'm cowarding out a little bit
Oh if it is 1/1/1, the scum is going to quickhammer the group #1 in a sec
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 7:00 pm
by Morning Tweet
My mind isn't changed on Mohab. I just find it difficult to imagine there's a scum in the 3rd group so im not really sure who it'd be.
It actually mechanically can't be you, ds, if we're on L-1. If ive got that right.