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Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:14 am
by Dwlee99
That kill points more towards you than away from you imo

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:15 am
by GuiltyLion
here I'll give a response:
In post 5499, Menalque wrote:Then I have to have decided to: crumb only one role, and it’s one that happens to fit with what we know about setup balance
can you explain how your crumb was a crumb? I didn't follow how saying there's a scum in a group of four is some kind of ironclad crumb we would be expected to see and one that you could never ignore or walk back from.
In post 5499, Menalque wrote:Not bothered to crumb any other possible fakeclaims for lategame me as scum, when there’s no reason not to have other available backup claims as more setup info is revealed
similarly, if this:
In post 5297, Menalque wrote:
In post 1671, Menalque wrote:largely for postgame credit i'm gonna call ~1 scum in {frogster, VP, andante, bell} for this thing
This is a crumb
counts as a crumb then like virtually anything in your ISO could be a crumb you could pull out if you needed to, as far as I'm concerned. Unless I'm missing something obvious about how this is a crumb that can only signify babysitter.
In post 5499, Menalque wrote:Taken positioning on Baltar that as various points *just makes me look bad and does not help me longer term*
Is the argument here that scum!you would have bussed VPB strongly or something? What would be the most useful stance for scum!you to take on Baltar?
In post 5499, Menalque wrote:Decided that despite being willing to try hardish this game, as I am today, that I would wait until AFTER incriminating myself through partner interactions to do so, instead of, oh, idk, claiming a PR result to try and defend or hardbus, either of which would have given me better optics for today
This is maybe the best point in your favor, but your WIM has been erratic all game, you were absent for a lot of D2 and D3 when town was kinda just eating itself alive over Frog/Andres
In post 5499, Menalque wrote:There’s also my actions that make considerably more sense viewed through the lens of being a town PR: hammering fire on D1, deciding to just rofl your case because I foolishly somehow assumed that a modicum of critical thought would be applied in this game and that my PR along with early crumb would make me very obvious town
I feel like this is all scummy stuff - no explanation needed for why lolhammring an unclaimed player is scummy, Dwlee's case was actually quite thoughtful and worthy of a more serious response than "lol", I don't see how you can earnestly believe this is an obvious town game from you

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:18 am
by Menalque
anyway, I guess I do have something to say

Pooky -> GL -> Bell -> Enchant -> CSF -> Dwlee99 -> Andante

is the order I'd suggest limming in once I flip town. pooky is still the most likely scum by a long shot imo, and I hope that y'all will give some consideration to my point on how his trajectory on VPB is actually awful once you look at it in contrast with a town trajectory (i.e. mine)

GL is normally very reasonable and is being distinctly non-reasonable/uninterested in trying to unconfbias which is why he's the second in the list

honestly everyone else I TR, but I think I have the least good actual reasons for townreading Enchant or Bell if by some miracle the game isn't over after pooky/GL lims. could probably reverse those two as well, but it's tricky. I would have put Enchant as a lim ahead of Bell, but something about Bell's "giant arrow" comment really rubs me the wrong way and made me flip them back

final shoutout: if dwlee does flip scum and the whole thing with VPB was elaborate theatre then, honestly, kudos

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:19 am
by Menalque
give me a second to grab my charger and order food, then I can respond @GL

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:23 am
by GuiltyLion
Bell is lock town for me given the N2 hood - we elected VPB/Bell/myself as experts and scum swapped VPB to be the defuser and put Misty in as an expert. Why would they do any of that if Bell was scum? Also, Bell in that hood was clearly not aligned with either Misty or VPB

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:24 am
by Bell
In post 5523, Menalque wrote:I have nothing to say other than it would be lovely if in future you (collective) could address the multiple points on why I don't make sense as scum before limming me, instead of looking at them after the fact and going "oh yeah, he had a point actually"
You defended baltar. You defended misty and appeared to be arguing at a more urgent tone than someone coming off a scum elim would be by pushing other eliminations. It’s just a burden of proficiency. One mistake is fine. Two major ones with obvious intentionality to both I just think, probably scum. It depends on the player.
But you are one where I think it’s valid.
I suppose the fact you didn’t concede points heavily away from you being scum. But I am not negotiating with the past. I wanna be clear you can’t really change my mind here. Just give us who are scum if you have an idea.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:24 am
by Bell
Thanks Mena. I missed it.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:25 am
by Bell
I have zero issues with your lim pool.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:26 am
by Bell
Well except me, it’d be super confusing if the game didn’t end after those two were limmed after you were limmed tho. So I’ll take it.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:27 am
by GuiltyLion
I feel like Pooky's trajectory on Baltar was pretty much the same as mine so I don't really see how it's a scum-indicative trajectory. Baltar felt fairly town during D2 and D3 when he was one of the most involved players in the game. And the mechanic arguments Pooky was making around forcing scum to make him defuser again felt sound

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:28 am
by Bell
Pooky just didn’t give much reason. I associate a lack of reasons until mid-late game with their scum game.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:28 am
by GuiltyLion
and also I still fail to see why scum!Pooky wouldn't have just blown me up on N4. Scum has been really hurting for NKs/explosions, it would have been easy for him to say "GL isn't townie, I'm not going to help defuse" and not face any major consequences, especially once I claimed VT in the hood. why keep me alive instead?

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:30 am
by Bell
Their bussing points away from it though. But I consider them fluffy busses. With pillows for wheels.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:30 am
by Dwlee99
In post 4760, Dwlee99 wrote:Funniest world is that there is a scum role that can do what VP is describing but they used it N1 on catboi and VP is still scum here
In post 4761, Dwlee99 wrote:Omg and even funnier world would be Mistyx is the scum with the role that can do that and VP is trying to bus her to then save himself
With this actually confirmed, the timing of Menalque's Mistyx push while VP was alive to pushing pooky the next day looks even worse

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:31 am
by GuiltyLion
there's also the mechanics point of we have a small point of evidence in favor of town!pooky (doctored on N1 when no-kill) and a small point of evidence for scum!Menalque (jailed on N4 when no-kill), neither is conclusive since we don't know when scum used their NKs but it's worth weighting in favor of limming Menalque over Pooky

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:31 am
by Bell
I mean, it’s probably just mena and I’m confident that Pooky will defend themselves well regardless of their alignment.
We can discuss it if it matters then and we’re both alive.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:31 am
by Dwlee99
In post 5527, Menalque wrote:Pooky -> GL -> Bell -> Enchant -> CSF -> Dwlee99 -> Andante
This list is decent. I hope you understand why you kinda have to die even if you're town here though

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:39 am
by Menalque
okay, so I'm not gonna quote, I'm just gonna run through the points:

The Crumb


is a crumb because it is an exact quote (with names changed, obviously) of ducky in this post from a game of 9:12 that Datisi ran back in late 2019 into 2020. ducky's role that game? babysitter. this is an established crumbing meta that I have, and I can find other games where I crumbed in the same way if you'd like. off the top of my head, Pokemon u-pick from 2019 is one of them.

that should also answer your other question -- how can you know that my other posts
aren't
hidden crumbs? well, simply put, you can run them through the search function. I wouldn't try to rely on anything not crumbed D1, so there's not actually that many to do. you can also, if worried, look at them for other forms of crumbing like first letters of words or allusions to pop culture, but you won't find anything because there's nothing there.

Baltar


I've already gone into this and would refer you back to , but essentially -- it makes very little sense for me to take the approach I did if I'm Baltar's partner. Either I would have committed to bussing him -- and for actual reasons, I might add, not just "I'm worried because he's been defuser twice" -- or I would have hard committed on defending him throughout. one thing I don't tend to do with my partners is position myself so that I neither get credit for bussing if they're going down, nor have any chance of the WIFOMy "so wrong he couldn't be this blatant about it" approach.

WIM


Simply put, I'm a lot busier than I used to be. I'm trying to juggle a social life, 5 hours of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, reading, and teaching 19 hours of class plus prep. I just don't have the same time that I used to, and frankly D2/D3 were kinda boring and I didn't feel I had much to say when I was around. The reason I' able to post now is I just tested positive for covid (sarcastic "woo!") so I'm now isolating in my room the next few days.

Misc


But he wasn't unclaimed? I hammered BECAUSE of the claim, as I believed andres and was sceptical at the time of there being more protectives than the two. Fire was consistently a scum read for me, so I thought he was just trying to copy andres to save himself.

Taking cases seriously has, I'm not sure ever been a thing I've done unless I've felt it necessary, and again, I assumed that in this game a lot more credence would be given to both my role/crumb and the way that fits with how I've been looking at the game/the actions I've taken. I don't think I'm obvtown like I used to be when I'd have about 800 posts at this point and probably would have flown off the handle at dwlee for continuing to push me in this way, but my argument is rather than being obviously town, I think I've done things that would be pretty clear and avoidable misplays for me as scum/neglected to do things that would have been greatly to my benefit, and unless you think I wouldn't have realised those at the time, I think that's pretty strong evidence for why I'm town here

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:39 am
by Menalque
okay, so I'm not gonna quote, I'm just gonna run through the points:

The Crumb


is a crumb because it is an exact quote (with names changed, obviously) of ducky in this post from a game of 9:12 that Datisi ran back in late 2019 into 2020. ducky's role that game? babysitter. this is an established crumbing meta that I have, and I can find other games where I crumbed in the same way if you'd like. off the top of my head, Pokemon u-pick from 2019 is one of them.

that should also answer your other question -- how can you know that my other posts
aren't
hidden crumbs? well, simply put, you can run them through the search function. I wouldn't try to rely on anything not crumbed D1, so there's not actually that many to do. you can also, if worried, look at them for other forms of crumbing like first letters of words or allusions to pop culture, but you won't find anything because there's nothing there.

Baltar


I've already gone into this and would refer you back to , but essentially -- it makes very little sense for me to take the approach I did if I'm Baltar's partner. Either I would have committed to bussing him -- and for actual reasons, I might add, not just "I'm worried because he's been defuser twice" -- or I would have hard committed on defending him throughout. one thing I don't tend to do with my partners is position myself so that I neither get credit for bussing if they're going down, nor have any chance of the WIFOMy "so wrong he couldn't be this blatant about it" approach.

WIM


Simply put, I'm a lot busier than I used to be. I'm trying to juggle a social life, 5 hours of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, reading, and teaching 19 hours of class plus prep. I just don't have the same time that I used to, and frankly D2/D3 were kinda boring and I didn't feel I had much to say when I was around. The reason I' able to post now is I just tested positive for covid (sarcastic "woo!") so I'm now isolating in my room the next few days.

Misc


But he wasn't unclaimed? I hammered BECAUSE of the claim, as I believed andres and was sceptical at the time of there being more protectives than the two. Fire was consistently a scum read for me, so I thought he was just trying to copy andres to save himself.

Taking cases seriously has, I'm not sure ever been a thing I've done unless I've felt it necessary, and again, I assumed that in this game a lot more credence would be given to both my role/crumb and the way that fits with how I've been looking at the game/the actions I've taken. I don't think I'm obvtown like I used to be when I'd have about 800 posts at this point and probably would have flown off the handle at dwlee for continuing to push me in this way, but my argument is rather than being obviously town, I think I've done things that would be pretty clear and avoidable misplays for me as scum/neglected to do things that would have been greatly to my benefit, and unless you think I wouldn't have realised those at the time, I think that's pretty strong evidence for why I'm town here

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:44 am
by Menalque
In post 5530, Bell wrote:
In post 5523, Menalque wrote:I have nothing to say other than it would be lovely if in future you (collective) could address the multiple points on why I don't make sense as scum before limming me, instead of looking at them after the fact and going "oh yeah, he had a point actually"
You defended baltar. You defended misty and appeared to be arguing at a more urgent tone than someone coming off a scum elim would be by pushing other eliminations. It’s just a burden of proficiency. One mistake is fine. Two major ones with obvious intentionality to both I just think, probably scum. It depends on the player.
But you are one where I think it’s valid.
I suppose the fact you didn’t concede points heavily away from you being scum. But I am not negotiating with the past. I wanna be clear you can’t really change my mind here. Just give us who are scum if you have an idea.
I never concede, so that should be very null for me. I probably wouldn't make any effort at all if I were scum though.

And I mean, I see what your argument is but I think there's some huge holes -- I defended Baltar
when he was clearly going down
. I pushed for a misty lim for most of the game and then when the tide started swinging there I started arguing for a pooky lim -- if I'm final scum, who
knows
my buddy is going down, how does it make sense to reverse stance there and try to save her?

For me to be scum, I have to have been acting against my own longterm interests, when it would have been clear to me from D5 that I was going to have to be the one to try and endgame. I think my play could make sense as scum who was willing to get their hands dirty and burn themselves for the team, but I don't think it makes any sense as scum who is trying to win in final 3.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:44 am
by Menalque
Also: if pooky is scum, then it's only one mistake-mistake, and the second is a case of bad timing.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:46 am
by Menalque
In post 5536, GuiltyLion wrote:and also I still fail to see why scum!Pooky wouldn't have just blown me up on N4. Scum has been really hurting for NKs/explosions, it would have been easy for him to say "GL isn't townie, I'm not going to help defuse" and not face any major consequences, especially once I claimed VT in the hood. why keep me alive instead?
I think intentionally killing anyone is going to bring heat, and I stand by the fact that you weren't nearly suspected enough at that point for it to be something he could get away with openly. And if he did it quietly, probably knowing at that point that he was going to have to try and endgame, then it would heavily close the pool after his buddies died.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:47 am
by Bell
Baltar had a tremendous number of associatives and everything up to that point, showed he was a fighter with high activity.
It was not good for the scum team that he didn’t manage 2-miselims to his one.

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:48 am
by Menalque
In post 5541, Dwlee99 wrote:I hope you understand why you kinda have to die even if you're town here though
this argument is never true, and if I can find the time/energy I'll try to look for the NSG post where she explains why far more eloquently than I could

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:48 am
by Menalque
In post 5547, Bell wrote:Baltar had a tremendous number of associatives and everything up to that point, showed he was a fighter with high activity.
It was not good for the scum team that he didn’t manage 2-miselims to his one.
I don't see the relevance of this to my argument?