for 1 to be scum, the first dice has to be a 1 (1/40) and the second dice has to be not 1 (39/40), or visa versa (*2) = 1/40*39/40*2= 4.875%
for 2-3 to be scum, the first dice has to be 2 or 3 (2/40) and the second dice has to be not 2 or 3 (38/40) or visa versa (*2) = 2/40*39/40*2 = 9.5%
and so on.
so the odds are 4.875%, 9.5%, 13.875%, 18%, 21.875%, 25.5%, and 28.875%
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:47 am
by Plotinus
I got the numbers wrong but after a long talk with my girlfriend, I've got them right now.
There are 402 combination of 2d40, or 1600.
The chance that the dice have to be rerolled is 190/1600. This is 12 + 22 + 32 + 32 + 42 + 42 + 52 + 52 + 62 + 72.
We really only care about the last roll of the dice. It doesn't matter how many dice rolls it takes to get there. There are 1600-190 = 1410 numbers that don't lead to a reroll.
There are 1*39 numbers that make player a scum (1 dice has to be a 1 and the other dice has to be a number between 2 and 40 inclusive).
There are 2*38 numbers that make player b scum (1 dice has to be a 2 or a 3 and the other dice has to be a 1 or a number between 4 and 40 inclusive)
etc all the way down to player j which is 7*33 = 231.
The chances of any given player being scum are thus:
If that's too many significant digits, this works too:
Odds of being scum
dice number
6%
1
11%
2-3
16%
4-6
16%
7-9
20%
10-13
20%
14-17
25%
18-22
25%
23-27
29%
28-33
33%
34-40
Posted: Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:37 am
by pisskop
oh hi.
Joe has made this setup and seeks approval. Maybe should have done so sooner, but the reading of the pages didn't quite happen as planned.
So the setups are read off from each row/column and the 2 diagonals.
Spoiler: possible setups
Possible Setups[edit]
The role distribuition possible with this setup are:
1
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town Tracker, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Follower, 1 SK
2
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town 1s BP, 2 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 SK
3
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Tracker, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia 1s BP, 1 Mafia Godfather
4
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town Compulsive Fruit Vendor, 2 Mafia Goon, 2 WW Goon
5
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town 1s PGO, 1 Town Weak Bodyguard, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Follower
6
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 5 Town Citizen, 1 Town 1s BP, 1 Town Vig, 1 Town Compulisve Fruit Vendor, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Follower, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
7
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town Tracker, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 WW Goon, 1 WW Godfather
8
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 7 Town Citizen, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
9
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town 2s PGO, 1 Mafia 1s BP, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Follower, 1 SK
10
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town Weak Bodyguard, 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 SK
11
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town Tracker, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Follower, 1 WW Goon, 1 WW Follower
12
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 5 Town Citizen, 1 Town Tracker, 1 Town Weak Bodyguard, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 WW Goon, 1 WW Roleblocker
Posted: Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:34 pm
by BBmolla
As a small note, you may want to say Vanilla Townie just to go with the site standard.
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:38 am
by pisskop
I can do. I guess I never thought about the significance of standardizing it
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:37 am
by BBmolla
Kill All Townies is pretty broken in my opinion. The scum Docs being able to protect the cops is janky.
I'd say make the Docs loyal (action only works on own team), but maybe just get rid of them altogether. It'll give more incentive for scum to kill each other, because they'll lose if they target town. Might need to add 2-3 more townies. Or the setup is hopeless. No idea, but it should be worked a bit.
Hope Plus One the mafia need a 1-shot factional watch to prevent breaking strategy of town lucking out and having one doc protect cop correctly. I was in a game where it happened and it's absurd. Giving the mafia a 1-shot factional watch isn't too ridiculous for them, it shouldn't affect balance that much.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:59 pm
by Ether
I don't know anything about Kill All Townies, but giving the Hope+1 scumteam a one-shot watch makes sense to me.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:03 pm
by pisskop
KAK would appear to be an attempt to change how scum play the game. Maybe just change the name from KAK to 'Star Wars: Episode IV: A New Wifom'.
I mean, I found a reason to kill the seer as mafia when I played?
Its in scum's interest to keep the opposing 'Cop' alive, but how often is it the case where the doc does so?
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:54 pm
by BBmolla
I just think it's a janky unneeded interaction personally
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:56 pm
by BBmolla
Do you actually believe protecting opposing teams cop is a good thing?
And in that case, do you see reason for town not to claim cop and seer right out?
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:56 pm
by BBmolla
It's possible I'm over reacting
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:03 pm
by LlamaFluff
KAT is basically out of rotation at this point given how swingy it is and how similar it is to another unsuccessful setup. Hope plus one may eventually go the way of Hard Boiled, but I will look into adding that ability next time it gets ran.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:39 pm
by BBmolla
I think it's multiball aspect makes it too swingy. Don't think there's a way to fix it.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:39 pm
by BBmolla
What setups are in rotation?
Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:29 am
by Ether
What happened to Hard Boiled?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:49 am
by callforjudgement
This seemed balanced when I proposed it (months ago) in the Open Setup Discussion thread, so I'd like to have it properly reviewed here (if I have enough time – which isn't confirmed yet – and it's reviewed as OK I'll run it).
EV is 50% exactly, although the game plays out sufficiently differently from both a regular game and a Nightless that it possibly isn't that useful a figure.
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:35 am
by Ircher
So, town wants to lynch town, and scum want to lynch scum?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:43 am
by callforjudgement
Yep! It's the opposite from the way Mafia normally works, but there's still a bunch of scumhunting going on. You find scum, then you lynch someone else.
Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:25 am
by Egg
So it's 6 town trying to lose vs 2 jesters who are on a team. I'd play, but I'm not sure it would be popular and some might not consider it mafia at all.
Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:02 pm
by BBmolla
↑Egg wrote:So it's 6 town trying to lose vs 2 jesters who are on a team. I'd play, but I'm not sure it would be popular and some might not consider it mafia at all.
Except not at all.
The goal is still to appear towniest. So it doesn't change how you play. You're just lynching towniest instead of lynching scummiest.
Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:26 am
by callforjudgement
It's not the same as a Jester game, because in a Jester game, the Jesters are trying to look like scum in order to be lynched.
In this game, the scum are trying to look like town, because town lynch the towniest people rather than the scummiest people. If the town figure out who one of the scum is, they can simply refrain from lynching them (and, if they're correct, will win the game as a result).
Posted: Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:23 am
by Extrapolated Eagle
Setup: Odds and Evens
11xAntidote Docs
2xWell-meaning Antidote Docs
At the start of the game all players are inflicted with a virus that, should it be left to its own devices, will kill its host. Fortunately, this virus is a jealous virus and desires the host all to itself and will attack and kill a singular other instance of the same virus in its host. Unfortunately, if a third instance of the virus is introduced, it will ignore the two instances of the virus that are already fighting each other and kill the host. In the case of four viruses, the host lives, in the case of five, the host dies, and so on. By the end of every day there is a singular victorious instance of virus regardless of how many instances the host was infected with the night before, leaving the host in need of another administration of said virus the upcoming night.
Antidote Docs have a singular extra instance of the virus which they can administer to any player, including themselves, each night. They win when the well meaning docs are dead.
Well-meaning antidote docs have a total of three instances of the virus between the two of them which they can administer anywhere, including themselves. They win when they make up half of town.
I used well meaning because I would like to use this in a game where as a post restriction, all posts must be kind to all other players.
↑callforjudgement wrote:This seemed balanced when I proposed it (months ago) in the Open Setup Discussion thread, so I'd like to have it properly reviewed here (if I have enough time – which isn't confirmed yet – and it's reviewed as OK I'll run it).
EV is 50% exactly, although the game plays out sufficiently differently from both a regular game and a Nightless that it possibly isn't that useful a figure.
Shamelessly nicking this for a micro game. If you are okay with that
