In post 6373, penguin_alien wrote:At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.
Or Bulba blocked the Blue kill. Given the resurgence of your interest in the roleblocker theory, I've kinda thought that's what happened.
That's quite a hole in your speculation.
I've considered whether Bulbazak blocked the blue scum quite a bit in this thread and concluded that if he blocked me it would have been Night Five with no missing kills, not Night Six. I'm not ignoring the possibility of the blue scum kill being blocked on Night Six; I was addressing PV's speculation that the scum may have overlapped on kills at some point.
I'd been talking about the vig/watcher/scum doc/failed Bulba kill kerfuffle ad nauseum. No one was paying it any attention before yesterday.
In post 6373, penguin_alien wrote:At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.
Or Bulba blocked the Blue kill. Given the resurgence of your interest in the roleblocker theory, I've kinda thought that's what happened.
That's quite a hole in your speculation.
I've considered whether Bulbazak blocked the blue scum quite a bit in this thread and concluded that if he blocked me it would have been Night Five with no missing kills, not Night Six. I'm not ignoring the possibility of the blue scum kill being blocked on Night Six; I was addressing PV's speculation that the scum may have overlapped on kills at some point.
I'd been talking about the vig/watcher/scum doc/failed Bulba kill kerfuffle ad nauseum. No one was paying it any attention before yesterday.
In post 6373, penguin_alien wrote:At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.
Or Bulba blocked the Blue kill. Given the resurgence of your interest in the roleblocker theory, I've kinda thought that's what happened.
That's quite a hole in your speculation.
I've considered whether Bulbazak blocked the blue scum quite a bit in this thread and concluded that if he blocked me it would have been Night Five with no missing kills, not Night Six. I'm not ignoring the possibility of the blue scum kill being blocked on Night Six; I was addressing PV's speculation that the scum may have overlapped on kills at some point.
I'd been talking about the vig/watcher/scum doc/failed Bulba kill kerfuffle ad nauseum. No one was paying it any attention before yesterday.
I actually meant last night.
I asked you how 3 red PRs and a goon would balance 2 blue PRs and 2 goons. You handwaved stuff about x-shots. What are you positing for the actual alignment now that we know for a fact that the red scum team had a roleblocker?
I haven;t dug through t much yet, but looking quickly:
Mastin wrote:
Parama, Sacrificial Lamb, killed N0.
roflcopter, Bacde's slot, stormed out during pregame.
Rondar, Kublai Khan's slot, collapsed from exhaustion D1.
Mac, thezmon's slot, retired after a massive headache D1.
ActionDan, Hanzo_5's slot, had a mental breakdown and was removed D1.
DLG, PeregrineV's slot, pacified by a heavenly voice and left the street D1.
Hanzo_5, ThAdmiral's slot, driven to insanity and vaguely left an heir D1.
Baby Spice, penguin_alien's slot, became frustrated and RAGE QUIT D1.
fuzzybutternut, Haylen's slot, yaddayadda bowed out and got a similar replacement D1.
16.
Oversoul
,
Town 2-shot Bulletproof
, Lynched Day One.
Majiffy, half of BeautyAndTheBeast, ejected from the game D1.
12.
PV, I know you were talking about last night; that's the first part of the paragraph. I'd also be surprised if you or ffullisade was red scum who felt most threatened by Ms Marangal. MM stopped engaging with ffullisade more or less after the replace-out. And I'd expect you to have killed me for floating the 'two red neighbors' theory.
What PR could pair with Ninja to balance that much red scum power?
UNVOTE: Nacho while we make sure a no-lynch isn't necessary.
I haven;t dug through t much yet, but looking quickly:
Mastin wrote:
Parama, Sacrificial Lamb, killed N0.
roflcopter, Bacde's slot, stormed out during pregame.
Rondar, Kublai Khan's slot, collapsed from exhaustion D1.
Mac, thezmon's slot, retired after a massive headache D1.
ActionDan, Hanzo_5's slot, had a mental breakdown and was removed D1.
DLG, PeregrineV's slot, pacified by a heavenly voice and left the street D1.
Hanzo_5, ThAdmiral's slot, driven to insanity and vaguely left an heir D1.
Baby Spice, penguin_alien's slot, became frustrated and RAGE QUIT D1.
fuzzybutternut, Haylen's slot, yaddayadda bowed out and got a similar replacement D1.
16.
Oversoul
,
Town 2-shot Bulletproof
, Lynched Day One.
Majiffy, half of BeautyAndTheBeast, ejected from the game D1.
12.
Red is immune to the Rolecop and has a doc.
Blue is immune to red tracker and town watcher.
I guess part of it depends on the power of the blue PR.
What is your contention? Are you still thinking only a single scum left instead of 2 teams of 4?
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:47 am
by PeregrineV
In post 6383, penguin_alien wrote:PV, I know you were talking about last night; that's the first part of the paragraph. I'd also be surprised if you or ffullisade was red scum who felt most threatened by Ms Marangal. MM stopped engaging with ffullisade more or less after the replace-out. And I'd expect you to have killed me for floating the 'two red neighbors' theory.
What PR could pair with Ninja to balance that much red scum power?
UNVOTE: Nacho while we make sure a no-lynch isn't necessary.
Blue BP. immune to vig, immune to Red kills. Second choice would be a JOAT of some sort, allowing for more blue flexibility.
I still think that Mara not getting hammered day 7 was indicative of singleton scum from both teams.
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:54 am
by penguin_alien
Red scum has flexible BP-ness in the doc and can find town PRs/blue scum via tracker. JOAT is possible, and I agree that it might provide flexibility, but the neighborhoods mechanic seemed elegant, and if a JOAT was used to provide balance, that seems less so.
P-edit: that too. But I don't remember who was on that wagon.
In post 6388, ffullisade wrote:I still think that Mara not getting hammered day 7 was indicative of singleton scum from both teams.
Not sure what you mean here, but I'll go back and look at this timeframe.
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:09 pm
by PeregrineV
In post 6391, penguin_alien wrote:So that eliminates PV-Bulbazak as partners, yes? It also makes me think his musings about a fourth red scum are sincere rather than disingenuous.
Must have missed the posts that lead up to this one, but for now, are you in the 1-bluescum-left camp, or do you think 1 blue & 1 red?
Have you posted your logical case for this yet? If so, what post #?
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:53 pm
by ffullisade
A good chunk of my day 7 posts were the process of working through who the final red and blue scum are. We lynched bulba. He was red roleblocker. PA was my choice for blue. Still is.
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:49 pm
by penguin_alien
^ Because Nacho has been calling you town? Look, my play makes zero sense as blue scum. Why would I want to encourage the town to continue lynching in the neighborhoods with Seanald if I had my only surviving scum partner in there? Why would I hesitate to lynch PV when his wagon was near a lynch when the only lynchable neighbors were PV and CTD? Why would I night kill ThAd or Baezu? (ThAd never indicated he'd shoot me, and if I were a lone scum I'd want the vig to thin out the numbers, and I was thinking Baezu was scummy, but why would I NK someone whose lynch I could push the next day? Frankly, if CTD and I were scum buddies alone on Days Four and Five, I'd expect him to blacklist me based on how my play would have screwed our team over.
ffullisade, what part of my case on Nacho do you disagree with? Why do you think I'm scum? Because I don't remember either of your heads really delving into this yesterday, which, Bulbazak was more important to help figure out if we had two or one red scum left, so I get that, but this is a new day.
This whole thing makes me feel like I'm back in NY 161, which I think everyone left but fferyllt was in: I get carried along to the end and used as the last mislynch bait, and it was the second most frustrating game I've played here. If Nacho's snowed you, fine, well-played to him, I'll continue to work on not being such good XyLo mislynch bait. But when we're talking about a 250+ page game that most everyone's been playing for five months now, I hate to see us lose it without the most rigorous effort possible.
PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?