The Resistance #2 - 5P Game

[Irrelephant11]

EBWOP sorry idk how I did that ignore the last post

Those points were meant for dino, he was last person to talk when I posted those. Sorry for the confusion.

2 things in response to you running the numbers:

A) like dino, you are not factoring in the odds of choosing 2 scum correctly after only one mission. And then the odds of them actually putting 2 sabotages/2 clears. 2 spies going in is very similar to the classic prisoner's dilemma. You may very well choose both scum for mission 2 and STILL end up with only 1 sabotage.

B) The actual process involved in trying to identify both spies now and after mission 4 is the same except that after mission 4 you have more to go on.
The difference is in the consequences. At mission 5 you get it wrong you lose or you insta win. At mission 2 you will be forced to question who to vote for at every following mission with no clear way of confirming anybody's alignment.

-Icon I wasn't the one scumreading tgp. I was just wondering if he makes sense as math's partner or if you do. Now I'm thinking it's just irrelephant.


VOTE: Buj, Icon, Paradox VOTE:

If it passes game over.

I was responding on Math's behalf.

A)Straight up lie. I have

literally

factored in those odds.

One quick thought about putting up two scum as a strategy: While it doesn't guarantee a town point, it is easier to do than get all three town in a mission. There are 3/10 teams that include two spies, and only 1/10 that include no spies.

B)I know. At this point you're just saying "there's more information later than there is now". Yeah. But you haven't proved that your route of choosing teams is better than mine. You've also argued that TGP and Math need to go on the second mission, and now your vote is not agreeing with that, with little explanation given for your change in strategy. Obviously your vote is what you think is the resistance team, but why the switch from "this is the way to clear people" to "let's just vote who I feel is resistance", which was my strategy that you disliked?

Your last sentence is a scumslip.

[BuJaber]

A) sorry I missed this post earlier. I only read the "ran the numbers" spoiler and that's what I was responding to.
3/10 to pick them.. what are the odds they only put 1 sabotage? Assuming equal chance that's 2/4 possible outcomes so it's actually only 1.5/10 to get the outcome you and math want. That is better than the 1/10 you are correct but considering that my position has been to choose math/paradox a 2nd time this is irrelevant. My opinion was that without additional info you have to pick them again regardless of how you read them.

B) I feel like I have. That was the point of my posts where I consider the different scenarios. I laid out how my strategy deals with each mission and in comparison how much your strategy relies on guess work at every turn. The problem is you can't seem to get it.

[brassherald]

Prodding TGP, if he does not respond within 24 hours, I guess I'll look for a replacement. I really don't know how we can do that here, but Math and I can talk about it.

[BuJaber]

Your last sentence is a scumslip.

Lol I'd like to hear the explanation for this one

[Irrelephant11]

A) sorry I missed this post earlier. I only read the "ran the numbers" spoiler and that's what I was responding to.
3/10 to pick them.. what are the odds they only put 1 sabotage? Assuming equal chance that's 2/4 possible outcomes so it's actually only 1.5/10 to get the outcome you and math want. That is better than the 1/10 you are correct but considering that my position has been to choose math/paradox a 2nd time this is irrelevant. My opinion was that without additional info you have to pick them again regardless of how you read them.

B) I feel like I have. That was the point of my posts where I consider the different scenarios. I laid out how my strategy deals with each mission and in comparison how much your strategy relies on guess work at every turn. The problem is you can't seem to get it.

A) huh, it's almost like the math proves choosing math/paradox a second time might be a bad idea. weird.

B) Please quote me where you detail the reasoning behind your turn in strategy from "Math/Paradox must go again" to "VOTE: buj, Icon and paradox".

math pointed out earlier how the moment someone says something like "I will pass this mission" etc. they are crumbing to their partner how to handle the double-scum mission. I'm pointing out to dino (not really to you, since I'm 99.99% sure you're scum at this point) that you did just that, basically crumbing to whichever of ico/TGP for both of you to pass the mission.

[Irrelephant11]

Okay, okay, I'll help us cool down for a sec. I misread you're last "B)". My bad.

You were saying "I have shown how my strategy is better than yours"

not

"I have shown the development in my strategy from what I had been saying to the recent placement of my vote".

To which my new response is two parts:
-Please explain, in light of the numbers I ran, if and how you think your strategy of keeping the same two people over and over is better than trying to put 0/2 scum on the second mission.
-Please explain your vote, given your hardline stance that TGP/dino ought to go on mission 2.

[TheGoldenParadox]

I'm really sorry.
I can't believe I forgot about this game, I knew there was a nagging feeling at the back of my mind.
Philosophically I think the best way to win the game is to get either an all-town team or two scum one town team, I know I'm town, and I see Dino and Elephant as aligned together, so
VOTE: TGP, MD, I11

[brassherald]

NM this, VC here. I though irrelephant had a 13 at the end of his name.

Vote Count 2.3

Iconeum, TheGoldenParadox, BuJaber(1)~

BuJaber

Iconeum, Mathdino, BuJaber(1)~

Iconeum

TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Ireelephant11(1)~

TheGoldenParadox

Not Voting (2)~

Irrelephant11, Mathdino

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-04-30 20:20:00).

[BuJaber]

I changed my vote because you and dino are refusing to allow tgp and dino to go again. Points to you being scum so now I have an actual reason to suspect you two that didn't exist before so I am choosing a mission that I suspect is all town.

I will try to go over every single possible outcome in both strategies in a big incoming post sometime today. But for now think of this: your core mistake is assuming that there is a higher chance of choosing 2 scum outside of tgl/paradox than it is with them. The two teams are the same in that regard. The difference is by repeating tgp/paradox you are making it easier to predict who failed missions later because you are using the same 2 people until they fail a mission then you change them.

[Mathdino]

I'm really sorry.
I can't believe I forgot about this game, I knew there was a nagging feeling at the back of my mind.
Philosophically I think the best way to win the game is to get either an all-town team or two scum one town team, I know I'm town, and I see Dino and Elephant as aligned together, so
VOTE: TGP, MD, I11

this might actually be correct

worth nothing that no matter what if bujaber or iconeum is scum, they've both proposed teams with 2 scum on them

unless irrelephant is scum

i don't know what to make of that

[Iconeum]

why am I scum again?

[Mathdino]

because i really don't understand why you're townreading bujaber

[Iconeum]

and there is scum motivation in townreading a scumread Buj?

[Iconeum]

as scum, I'd simply scumread Buj as well.

[BuJaber]

[Aiiiiiight let's do this
Spoilerooney:

Spoiler: Text Wall

TGP / Dino went on mission 1 it passed. Considering we are playing a forum version that doesn't force a mission leader to go on a particular mission. Neither math nor paradox were forced to go. Math purposefully chose TGP and TGP purposefully agreed. It is therefore highly unlikely to me that both are scum because it is insanely risky for scum to do it especially considering a lot of players like me would pick them again mission 2.

BUT even if they are both scum then my plan is proposing picking them 3 times in a row if mission 2 also passes which means they will somehow have to coordinate all 3 missions to avoid a double sabotage which makes it the easiest possibility to sort out later.

So either math is spy or tgp is spy or neither.

Mission 2 math/TGP/ X goes.
It passes:
2 points for town. Almost guarantees that math/TGP are not spies because this would be the time to put a sabotage to shade 2 people at once. Also because given that they would have passed 2 missions mission 3 they will obviously go again where they will be forced to put a fail. Better to put a fail in 3 way mission as that is 1/3 that you are spy instead of 2 way where it's 1/2.
EXCEPTION here: math / x are both spy, TGP / x are both spy. Easy. 1) they may drop clues that they coordinated. 2) mission 3 you will avoid x anyway so you'll know for sure if one of tgp/dino are scum in mission 3 if they put fail.
Mission 3: TGP / Dino again. It passes town wins.
It fails: guaranteed one scum among them.
Mission 4: TGP OR Dino (for this example let's go with dino) goes with the 2 players that never played. (Call em y and z). Passes? Town wins.
If it fails either:
X and dino are spies. Focus on mission 2. Did they coordinate? Who picked the mission 2 team first (x or dino or tgp) etc.
Dino and y are spies. Same but focus on mission 4
Dino and z are spies. Same but focus on mission 4.
TGP and y are spies. Focus on TGP's reactions before mission 4.
TGP and z are spies. Focus on TGP's reactions before mission 4.

That is it. 5 possibilities to analyze for mission 5. And 2 chances of winning outright without playing mission 5. If we chose TGP for mission 4 same but switch the names.

Let's go over if mission 2 fails:
Math / TGP / x go on mission 2 and it fails. 1 spy or 2 guaranteed.

Mission 3:
(Math or TGP .. let's assume math) go with x. Pass means TGP is highly likely to be scum because scum math or scum x just sacrificed a 2 point advantage. And it also means that math is highly likely to be town because of how rarely it is that both spies passed mission 1.
So mission 4 you pick math, y and z. Pass is a win. If it fails y or z is spy:
Y with TGP.
Y with x.
Z with TGP.
Z with x.
25% chance to win mission 5 if choosing randomly.

Mission 3 fails clears very likely clears TGP. Math is also more likely to be scum because of fail in mission 2 and 3. So you pick TGP with x and one of y/z in mission 4. Fail is loss. Pass is a win because all 3 are cleared so you pick them again.

So by pure analysis of mission results you can actually arrive at decent conclusions. When you add analysis of posts throughout the game you can make a pretty informed decision.

I'll do your scenario next. This is taking a long time.

[BuJaber]

Oh crap now the bb code I wanted.. which one is spoiler box?

I fixed it. -Brass

[brassherald]

Vote Count 2.4

Iconeum, TheGoldenParadox, BuJaber(1)~

BuJaber

Iconeum, Mathdino, BuJaber(1)~

Iconeum

TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Ireelephant11(1)~

TheGoldenParadox

Not Voting (2)~

Irrelephant11, Mathdino

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-04-30 20:20:00).

This is identical to the previous VC, I know

[BuJaber]

Your version (one of math/tgp only in mission 2 instead of both. Let's assume math for this example)

Spoiler: Clicky

Math/x / y go on mission 2. If it passes. 2 scum in mission (with less likelihood of math being scum because he is more likely to put sabotage here as he has taken a leader position from start)or x is spy or y is spy OR all are town.

Mission 3 one of x/y let's say x for this example + math - if it passes it's a win.
If it fails x is scum. We need to check if TGP is his partner
Or if it's y or if it's x. But we cannot check because it's only 5 players and if we put math in and exclude x here we are still forced to put 2 out of those 3 together. If it fails how do we know which one?
But we don't have to give up we can reasonably take the chance that y is town because 2 scum in mission 2 and no fails is rare. So Math + y + TGP to check TGP. If it fails mission 5 is Math + y + z.

Mission 2 again but this time it fails. Could be 2 spies or 1 spy. TGP is more likely to be town just a little bit because if it's only 1 spy math is the most likely.
So mission 3 let's say we go TGP + z. If it passes we have to assume they are clear because there are too many possibities of scumteams if they are not. Mission 4 you would go TGP + z + x. If it fails x is spy so mission 5 you finish it with TGP + z + y.
If mission 3 fails then TGP is most likely spy so math is most likely clear. You go math + y + z. If it fails spies wins. If it passes you repeat them.

With your proposed team we have fewer chances for 'test' missions. You have to do the analysis up front with less info to go on.

That is why barring any insight/gut feeling you get from prolonged mission 2 discussion, once you have 2 people passing the first mission you have to repeat them to maximize the potential info gained from the limited number of mission we actually have.

[Irrelephant11]

Ohhhhhh wow there's actually a reason: TGP and Math are unlikely to be spies together.

Keeping them does give more information for later.

Hm.

I need to rethink, clearly.

idk about y'all but I'm having fun

[brassherald]

Vote Count 2.5

Iconeum, TheGoldenParadox, BuJaber(1)~

BuJaber

Iconeum, Mathdino, BuJaber(1)~

Iconeum

TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Ireelephant11(1)~

TheGoldenParadox

Not Voting (2)~

Irrelephant11, Mathdino

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-04-30 20:20:00).

This is identical to the previous VC, I know

[Iconeum]

I'm back to this now:

VOTE: Ico/TGP/Math

[BuJaber]

I thought I voted back too
VOTE: buj / math / tgp

[Iconeum]

Wait, this doesn't work. I need Buj in the mission.

Buj, in an all town mission, which of Math/TGP do you trust most to be town?

Ico, Buj, Math/TGP

[BuJaber]

Probably TGP

[Mathdino]

this is actually a farce lol

what the fuck are you guys townreading about paradox i can't even

i literally designed that first mission so it would be a pass regardless of paradox's alignment

why would i succeed the first mission only to 1v1 paradox and refuse to let him on future missions anyway