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Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 1:15 am
by Atticus
I think it might be best if we no lynch today. We're at five people, agaisnt what I see as one scum. (if there's two, which I doubt, this is not what we want to do) But tomorrow, we can kill two people, (two shots into three, unconfirmed, possible scum, pretty good shot, in my eyes) and if we have a pretty good idea who we want to kill, I think we can win.

vote: NoLynch.

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 1:20 am
by Atticus
Unvote


If we have two scum left, which I had forgotten to consider, it may be best if no one votes, just for safety issues.

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 1:40 am
by Patrick
I'm a bit puzzled as to why people are now saying we probably only have 1 scum left. Is there some reason for this? Minis usually have a mafia of 3 in my experience.

Even if we only have 1 scum left, there's no advantage to no lynching today. It doesn't change the number of shots we get.

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 3:30 am
by Patrick
Fuldu post 719 wrote:I come to a different conclusion, except that I'd prefer not to tell mafia what I think they should do under these circumstances, because it doesn't help the town. Suffice it to say that I think you should rethink your reasoning.
Now that the SK is dead and we know this scenario can't happen, mind explaining what you were getting at here?

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:40 am
by The Central Scrutinizer
Patrick: I have been a mini that had a cop, doc, vig, sk, and 2 mafia. It was relatively balanced, as the mafia nearly won.

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:44 am
by Patrick
Remember we have at least 4 poweroles here though. 2 man mafia does happen, it's just much less common than a 3 man mafia. Everyone has assumed 3 mafia before, so I'm just a little puzzled as to what has changed all of a sudden.

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 6:09 am
by The Central Scrutinizer
Patrick wrote:Remember we have at least 4 poweroles here though. 2 man mafia does happen, it's just much less common than a 3 man mafia. Everyone has assumed 3 mafia before, so I'm just a little puzzled as to what has changed all of a sudden.
I'm just sayin' that it's possible.

We
should
assume that we are in lylo, however, which means lynching someone NOT ME.

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 6:10 am
by The Central Scrutinizer
Wait, if Atticus is alive tomorrow with 2 mafia and a townie, is that lylo?

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 6:10 am
by The Central Scrutinizer
I mean, endgame?

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 6:21 am
by Patrick
That's what I've been wondering. I wonder if he could hammer one and vig the other, almost simultaneously. Also, even 1 mafia alive and 1 vig alive could be a tie I dunno.

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 8:40 am
by The Central Scrutinizer
mod:
any answer to this question?

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 9:28 am
by Atticus
I am assuming there is 1 scum left becvause I beleive all but one claim. However, I agree with TCS that we should treat our situation as LyLo anyway.

Posted: Thu May 10, 2007 3:03 pm
by Fuldu
Patrick wrote:
Fuldu post 719 wrote:I come to a different conclusion, except that I'd prefer not to tell mafia what I think they should do under these circumstances, because it doesn't help the town. Suffice it to say that I think you should rethink your reasoning.
Now that the SK is dead and we know this scenario can't happen, mind explaining what you were getting at here?
Sure. Scum killing you under the scenario being posited would put the dawn living at vig, SK, mafia. vig and SK joining forces to lynch the mafia results in a scenario in which whoever shoots first wins, which are generally not well-liked by anyone. Either day killer shooting someone results in their own death by the remaining individual, either by the other day killer immediately or by the mafia at night. If one non-mafia player happens to be stupid and votes for the other, mafia lynches and nightkills to a win. And keep in mind that one of the two people in that scenario would be Atticus, who has twice now defied the will/intent of the town, although this second time worked out well enough. But even if that doesn't happen, mafia has the power to prolong the detente by simply not night killing. Eventually somebody will make a mistake, and compared to the scenario you were describing in which they don't kill, the odds in my scenario are a lot better. Scum in a tight spot have better odds taking their chances with the actions of an unpredictable player like Atticus than talking their way through players like you, Patrick.

Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 12:04 am
by Patrick
Ah. Well, I went by the assumption that the day SK could kill the mafia and would simply endgame the vig by being left alone with them. I don't know what the rules are for that. If we had that and the mafia didn't kill, I had all kinds of possible ways of winning, many based off that dayroleblocking fern. I still find it odd that you would hint to the mafia that they shouldn't no kill, since mafia no killing would be best for the town. Even if you thought there was a hole in the reasoning, which there may have been depending on endgame rules, it would have been better not to hint to the mafia. They might have bought everything I was saying. There was no (protown) benefit to telling the mafia otherwise, so it makes me think you were hinting to a scumbuddy in case you were quickly picked off by our unpredictable daykillers.

Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 1:07 am
by Atticus
Well, please exuse me, Fuldu. I did not mean to ever defy the will of the town. It was not as though anyone was against me killing BM before I sent the kill, and then everyone's on me about it. Today I killed someone I knew was scum, because only scum would kill a claimed doctor, and I happened to find relatively solid proof that it had been Mariyta.

But truly, unpredictable? Whether or not I have been reckless with my kills as of yet, I would weigh them carefully in tomorrow's assured LyLo. But today, we weigh our votes carefully. But truly, what other moves could I have made in the situations we had today and yesterday?

Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 2:04 am
by Patrick
Atticus wrote: It was not as though anyone was against me killing BM before I sent the kill, and then everyone's on me about it.
Lawl. I might beg to differ there.

Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 5:55 am
by pablito
Mod says: If it any time a scum group equals or outnumbers all others still alive, then it would be game over.

Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 9:37 am
by Atticus
Quick scan shows that no one voiced an opinion against me kill BM, or anyone else for that matter.

Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 9:53 am
by Patrick
Only indirectly I suppose, in observing that Battle Mage was likely town. Generally I'm against people who are likely town being daykilled. But anyway. That's just an aside.

Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 11:14 am
by Atticus
Good point. There's no need to dwell on it.

Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 3:23 pm
by Fuldu
Patrick wrote:I still find it odd that you would hint to the mafia that they shouldn't no kill, since mafia no killing would be best for the town. Even if you thought there was a hole in the reasoning, which there may have been depending on endgame rules, it would have been better not to hint to the mafia. They might have bought everything I was saying.
In general, plans that rely on hoping that mafia won't do the calculations themselves are not sound plans. After HH's death, our odds of getting to night with the mafia eliminated were decreased, and your response was that the worst-case scenario wasn't that bad, so we shouldn't worry too much about it. I viewed the worst-case scenario as being worth worrying about and wanted to at least attempt to discuss it. As I said at the time, it was a fine line between making sure the town didn't make a misstep and telling scum they had an out, but I'm comfortable with the approach I took to it.

Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 1:17 am
by Patrick
Fuldu wrote:In general, plans that rely on hoping that mafia won't do the calculations themselves are not sound plans. After HH's death, our odds of getting to night with the mafia eliminated were decreased, and your response was that the worst-case scenario wasn't that bad, so we shouldn't worry too much about it.
I don't think I said we shouldn't worry about it. The strategy was still clearly to get rid of both mafia today. Whether the worst case scenario was ok, poor or terrible doesn't change the fact that you always want to avoid the worst case scenario. And now, as I thought, we know that mafia killing at night would have lost for them. The mod has confirmed it. The only discussion I wanted on it at the time was telling the mafia to no kill. That was because the following day we were going to screw the mafia over and lynch them. I didn't want to discuss that today for obvious reasons.
Fuldu wrote:As I said at the time, it was a fine line between making sure the town didn't make a misstep and telling scum they had an out, but I'm comfortable with the approach I took to it.
You did tell the scum exactly that. You basically said, "Scum won't no kill. They have a better strategy which sucks for the town so I won't reveal it". It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what that "better" strategy was. The only alternative to no killing is... to kill someone. Presumably me.

Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 7:31 am
by Atticus
Here's pretty much our choices.

Raj: claimed Detour. Townie
TCS: claimed Local Greeter. Townie
Fuldu: claimed Route Info. Doc

With me being a pretty much proven day vigilante and Patrick unable to be killed because of HH, we are left with a claimed doc and two claimed townies.

Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 8:23 am
by Patrick
Which one would you kill if it was up to you alone?

Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 8:49 am
by Atticus
...Raj.