Two Notes in the Rules:
4.) There are at least four different alignments (i.e. win conditions) in this game.
5.) All nightkills will have the flavor of “shot”. If a player is shot multiple times, the flavor will still be simply “shot”. If a player is told they will “strangle somebody unto death”, the official flavor will still be “shot”.
There are three issues in the game that need to be resolved as I see it:
First:
Looking over the game and what I know, I can think of about 4 ways the game can be:
2 Mafias (2 each)(Mafia A, Mafia B), 6 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia(2 or 3), 1 SK, 6 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia(2 or 3), no SK, 7 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia (2 or 3), something I can't figure out (Cult, another survivor?), 6 townies, 2 survivors
I'm saving my analysis here until I get my role.
Second:
Caboose dilemma-
There are four possibilities:
1, Caboose is lying, he is a full vig, and has killed every night.
2, Caboose is lying, he is a SK, and has killed every night
3, Caboose is not lying, there is not another killing role and there is some other reason for the N1 and N3 kills. (I believe there currently is some dispute over the Day 1 kill, if it could be a modkill, but I can't figure anything out to account for N3 among the claimed roles)
4, Caboose is not lying, there is another scum group (either another mafia or SK), Caboose's kill mirrored one of the scum group's kills. (see special rule 5, quoted above)
As I see it:
1: Highly unlikely, in my personal opinion this happening is at best 1%. If he claims this now it is most likely a smoke screen for:
2: If he claims full vig I would say there is a 80-90% chance he is actually a Serial Killer. Overall I give this chance being about 30% overall.
3: Again, a very highly unlikely event. If there is a way to account for the N3 kill this could go up, but at best I would say this is, at best, a 10-15% chance of happening.
4: In my opinion this is the most likely occurrence. However, this also could be a smoke screen as well. Of all the choices, I give this about a 40-45% chance of being what is going on.
Third:
Elektra's role-
Some things stick out at me. At this point it looks like Sensfan was the liar in the Sera/Elektra are telling the truth, however I'm not so sure...
Second, what Elektra just stated has me wondering a few things. There is the Mafia B possibility (with Sera and Emp being both Mafia B), but that isn't actually what is bothering me the most. What is bothering me is this part:
Electra wrote:Wouldn't Seraphim have the same alignment as Sens if he were Mafia, though? (mafia-aligned)
First, this wouldn't make sense, because if this is thought in the same way then all "Self-Aligned" players would also be considered "one-alignment".
In this possibility only three alignments are accounted for. Where would the fourth alignment be?
But something is sticking out to me, its sort of an out there possibility but... what if Sera and Electra are Mafia A? Or what if Electra and Sens are both Mafia B?
Where this whole thing was cooked up as a gambit with the following contingencies:
IF Sera and Electra are scum buddies:
The town completely believes the claim, Sensfan turns up town (that is where the lynch seemed to be heading, and I know Sens was in fact scum, but Elec/Sera scum in thi situation wouldn't.), town lynches either of Sera or Elektra finds them scum, and virtually clears the other. (Sera is lynched, Elektra is cleared as no matter what Sens turns up as, they're different alignments. Elektra is lynched Sera is believed town because of gambit. Works even better since Sens would have been from the other mafia faction)
Town disbelieves the claim, lynches Elektra, either Sera or Sens or both are felt as town. Effectively this is the worse of the two scenarios.
Either of them is NKed, the other comes out better and pretty much considers themself confirmed.
IF Electra and Sens are scum buddies, then:
The town completely believes the claim, Sensfan turns up scum, town clears Electra, but Sera is still under scrutiny, he could be town or SK/Survivor.
Town disbelieves the claim, lynches Elektra, either Sera or Sens or both are felt as town. Effectively this is the worse of the two scenarios.
Either of them is NKed, the other comes out better and pretty much considers themself confirmed.
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Anyway, I wrote all of this before I received my role PM just from a quick cold read and some targeted reads.
Since it seems everyone wants me to role claim: I'll go ahead and try and give as much about my role without quoting.
I'm the Blind Targeting Mason
I also know that Yaw was the Deaf Searching Mason, and apparently we had an odd ability that we knew who the other was, but that we needed to find a place to meet without communicating it in private. Basically at night we both sent a target in but I could not target myself or Yaw, and if we chose a target of the same faction then we'd both be allowed to send one message to the mod, who would then relay that message to the other mason, but since one of us was deaf and the other was blind the message would not be exactly as we sent it.
Additionally in our special notes it said that on death of the first mason that they would not be revealed, but after the second died only the second role would be revealed. I'm assuming that if my role was revealed that Yaw's name would show up "[deleted]" and possibly set up for someone else to claim the "other" mason.
It also said in my special notes that most of our message would be kept intact, just the mod would remove anything that could be used to plan our next targets.
Since learning of this I did a re-read of Yaw and RG/Tamuz, but couldn't learn anything from it. :/ Additionally I was told by the mod that Yaw and RG/Tamuz never connected with each other.
My characters targets were Ooba in N1, Sensfan in N2, and no target was chosen on N3 (I'm assuming since Yaw was dead and all Tamuz decided not to do it).
At this point I can still target at night, if you guys want me to and someone can track it or something, but otherwise as far as I can tell my power is useless at this point.
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Now that I have this information I'm going to use what I know here plus what I've figured out from before and try and get a grasp on both how I think the final 5 are situated and see if I can figure out who is who.
Based on what I wrote up earlier:
2 Mafias (2 each)(Mafia A, Mafia B), 6 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia(2 or 3), 1 SK, 6 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia(2 or 3), no SK, 7 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia (2 or 3), something I can't figure out (Cult, another survivor?), 6 townies, 2 survivors
I think we can figure that most likely the third option and fourth option are not this game.
So, as I see it there are three possibilities, and two out of the three of them are not good for the town right now. First I make the following assumptions:
1) There are exactly 2 killing groups.
2) One of those Killing groups is Mafia B
3) The other killing group is either Mafia A or SK, but both cannot be there.
The only scenarios I can see are:
The final five are 1 mafia (linked with other dead), 1 SK, and 3 townies.
2 mafia (Mafia A), 3 townies
or 1 SK and 4 townies.
Now I'm going to go over each scenario and describe both what I think and who is most likely to be what in each scenario.
First scenario:
1 mafia, 1 SK, 3 townies:
This is by far the worst case for town. If we don't lynch either the mafia or the SK in this situation we're going to just have to pray for cross kills. Even if we lynch one of them, we go into the final day in a Mexican Standoff.
If this scenario is true, then as I see it, this is the spread:
First: If Electra is telling the truth then
Electra, Emp, and Sera are all town, thus, Caboose and myself must be mafia or SK each.
Second: If Electra is lying, then
Then most likely Electra is either SK or mafia. I would bet on mafia, as my previous statements, so she would be the last remaining one:
If this is the case, then Empking, myself, or Caboose would be the SK. I would put my money on Caboose.
Thus: The only way for this case (1 mafia, 1 SK, 3 townies) to be is if Electra is lying.
Second scenario:
2 Mafia, 3 townies
If this scenario is true then, if Electra is telling the truth then:
Either Mafia A is Sera/Empking or Myself/Caboose.
Thus, if we lynch one of the above and they come back Mafia A, then the other HAS to be the other mafia.
If Electra is lying then we have:
Electra is mafia, and among Sera, Emp, myself and Caboose is the other mafia.
In this case, I sincerely doubt Caboose is mafia. This is also the only case I'll accept that Caboose is actually a Full Vig and not a SK. This is, as far as I'm concerned, one of the better chances for town. Even though we're in LyLo in this situation, we have an easier time of finding the mafia.
In a choice between Empking and Sera, I am leaning toward Sera as being the other mafia.
Third scenario:
1 SK and 4 townies
If Electra is telling the truth, then:
Caboose is the Serial Killer.
If she's lying, then Electra is the Serial Killer. If we lynch one of them, they turn up town, and there is only one kill at night then we can assume that there is either only one scum alive or its a standoff between killing roles. Either way, the other one is the SK.
Now, pulling all of these things together, and adding some personal probabilities, I come up with this list, of people, from the most scummy to the least scummy:
Caboose: In case 1 and 3 he is the most likely to be the SK. I find his likeliness of being mafia very low. The only way I can see it is possibly a Caboose/Electra pair, but even that is low.
Electra: Obvscum if lying, but town if not. Its a hard decision. I rank her above Sera though for reasons explained below.
Empking: Bit of a wild card. I can't rule him out in many cases, but I can't pin where I think he would be. I'm placing him above Sera because I'm more unsure of him.
Sera: At this point Sera's only likely scenario of being scum is if Electra is lying, thus the most likely case I can find is contingent on someone else being scum. I think there was only one contingency that Sera could be scum without Electra being scum.
Thus, I'm confused as to why Caboose must wait for me to role claim before he role claims...
If his role claim doesn't specifically mention me, I'm going to be very very suspicious.
Either way, I believe the best play is to lynch Caboose. I don't believe his 1-shot Vig ability in the slightest, and I think he's the most likely person alive to be scum.
I'm going to wait until his "big reveal" though before voting him. I'm waiting with bated breath...