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Post Post #950 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 3:25 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

mikeburnfire wrote:
Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:If {CEM, Ibby, MBL} were the scum group, Mike, then how does one explain the lack of kill night 2?
Because you targetted somebody on a red floor.
Who then? Pie was dead. Fritzler and Thok weren't on Red and everyone else(you, M-M, PJ, Drummer, Amelia) have all effectively claimed not to be Red. Any Reds left are among {CEM, Ibby, MBL}.

As I see it, there's a very slim chance that we get information out of a no-lynch, not enough to justify giving that buffer a Red vig or doc could use later. After all, we have to get 3 lynches right.
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Post Post #951 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 4:17 am

Post by mikeburnfire »

M-M and I have been outted for the longest time. It's obvious that the scum don't consider us to be their biggest threat. If we reveal other, more powerful (yet unconfirmed) roles and forfeit a lynch, then the scum will take out one of them, leaving us with 2 confirmed innocents and 5 unconfirmed. Better odds will help us lynch a scum, and 3+ roles will have more info, 2+ if the mafia block one of them. A doctor or vigilante on the red floor is useless because they are locked in. There is no 'buffer' because they can't
do
anything.

We can either forfeit today's lynch or try to stab scum today. If we go with MY plan of not lynching, then we should wait until tomorrow and then test Drummer, who will investigate one of the unknown colors and reveal his three results. MBL, Ibby, and CES would then claim their respective roles. If we attempt to lynch today, then I would like that to all happen NOW. I don't care which plan happens anymore, but I see the former plan as the better.
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Post Post #952 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 4:20 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Due to all the potential forms of kill-blockage, we could be several days away from LOL.
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Post Post #953 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 6:03 am

Post by Machiavellian-Mafia »

I don't think we should be giving up a lynch since at this point lynching is the only way we can get rid of scum. I wouldn't have a problem with the remaining uncliamed people to mass role claim though.
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Post Post #954 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 7:56 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

I
really
do not agree with No-Lynch, MBF. A few reasons:
PetroleumJelly wrote:That said, I think it is actually to our advantage to have an even number of players at this point. For example, we lynch scum today, and scum have a successful kill overnight, leaving six players. The scum somehow get a quicklynch on town: I veto the lynch, and scum kill at night, and that leaves five players for the next day, and at least one scum very likely to be outed.
Lynching scum today means that:

1.) I will be able to protect against quicklynches tomorrow
2.) Gives me the opportunity to
prove my role
tomorrow, should anybody (such as MBL) still be in doubt

Further:
PetroleumJelly wrote:It is more than possible that we could lynch scum today, and scum could (for whatever reason) miss their kill tonight. Since we have eight players right now, that would leave us with seven players tomorrow.

That would leave us with an extra lynch for the town. Instead of being only to lynch three players of our choice, we would have four maximum lynches, which would be a monumental help to the town. By keeping the possibility open that scum could miss their kill tonight, I think we would be in better shape than by claiming today, where we will likely end up lynching the same person anyways. It's doubtful we would have that possibility at all if we were to mass-claim today.
Lynching scum today gives the opportunity for an
extra
lynch tomorrow, or at least somewhere along the line if we have a successful protection or if scum try to kill somebody on a locked floor.

I think there are more advantages to a lynch today than a no-lynch. We could still lynch AmeliaScum
today
, and Drummer will
still
have another result by tomorrow, and we will
still
be able to test his claimed role to a reasonable extent.

Like MBL, I am still of the opinion that there is probably a protective role
somewhere
, and I would much rather keep that person's identity and floor color hidden. That may be our ticket to having seven players tomorrow (the same objective of No-Lynch), except this way, we could possibly have one scum dead, instead of none at all.
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Post Post #955 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:10 am

Post by mikeburnfire »

First of all, that plan requires us to put our entire faith in believing your role.

Second of all, I seriously doubt that the scum will miss their nightchoices. M-M, for one, is an easy target to seal their win.

Thirdly, the advantages you bring up hinge on Amelia being scum and Drummer being town. Neither are confirmed to be either.

Lastly, if the doc is locked up in Red floor then their ability is still worthless.
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Post Post #956 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:22 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

1.) No-Lynching today takes away the opportunity for me to prove my role
at all
, so it doesn't exactly require "faith" in my role. I can't even use my role tonight, seeing as I'm locked in and all. If you want my ability to be proven at all, the only way to do so is to lynch scum today, and to have scum somehow miss their kill either tonight or a later night.

And also, it isn't so far-fetched that scum could eventually miss a kill. If not tonight, it's possible that we'll lynch another scum tomorrow, and then either scum will try to kill somebody who is protected, might try to kill somebody on a locked floor, and it is extremely possible that if we get the scum down to one member,
they will have a 1/4 chance of being on the locked floor, and unable to perform their kill
. The possibility is very much open. A No-Lynch takes that possibility away without question.

2.) See above. Lynching scum today means that a kill on M-M would take away one town role (unless he is protected, of course). I would much rather keep the scum guessing and unconfident if at all possible, rather then telling them exactly what the set-up is.

3.) The advantage works if we lynch
scum
today. My thought is that AmeliaSlay is scum. Of course that's not confirmed: it's doubtful we'll have any "confirmed scum" in this game until perhaps endgame, if there are confirmed townspeople. Drummer does not have to be town for my plan to work: but since you seem hell-bent on letting Drummer having another investigation tonight, I am saying that lynching scum today (presumably not Drummer), he will
still
have an investigation tomorrow that we could test. Capiche?

4.) Of course, that's obvious. The Doctor
could
be locked in the Red Floor. We have no way of knowing that: mass-claiming would only tell the scum whether or not they have to worry about an unlocked Doc.

Even if it's true that we have a Doctor locked on the Red Floor right now, then the scum
still have to worry about a Doctor
. And in that case, they still might try to kill who they think is the Doctor (which would fail, as the Doc would be in the locked floor), or they might be scared off from killing a more confirmed person (such as M-M or yourself, as scum might fear either of you having protection), worrying that the Doctor could be
unlocked
.
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Post Post #957 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:35 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

OK, screw it, I think we are pretty close to lynch or lose. I think it's the right time to reveal my role--it can only help us plan better how to move forward.

If you have any problems with this please let me know.
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Post Post #958 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:44 am

Post by mikeburnfire »

You are the only person who knows your role, so you alone need to decide if it's beneficial.

HOWEVER, I want to test Drummer's claim first, since he can confirm his ability IF he has the info he claims to have.
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Post Post #959 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:49 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

I would rather not have MBL claim, although I'm pretty sure I've gotten that particular point across already. I can't
stop
him from claiming, but I advise against it. I think we can catch scum today without revealing additional info.
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Post Post #960 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:52 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

I'm in favor of Drummer giving his investigative targets. Then, we can decide whether or not we want to have him reveal the color results for each one.
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Post Post #961 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:56 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

I can agree with that much.
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Post Post #962 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 5:42 pm

Post by Ameliaslay »

Question PJ, what type of role will you consider worth bringing back into the game?
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Post Post #963 (ISO) » Sun Aug 13, 2006 5:53 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

The pro-town type.
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Post Post #964 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 8:14 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Paging ibaesha and Drummer to this thread for their thoughts please.
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Post Post #965 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 8:21 am

Post by ibaesha »

I'm pretty much in full agreement with PJ and have nothing further to add really. If MBF wasn't so confirmed, I'd be highly suspicious of the plan he's suggesting because it smells of fishing to me.
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Post Post #966 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 8:47 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Who do you guys think was the scum target night two? I believe that's the night Pie was lynched and M-M and MBF had claimed but were not confirmed at that point. I believe M-M's floor was the only one publicly known--yellow.
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Post Post #967 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 8:59 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Wow, that sounds like a loaded question. I don't like it.
Hypothetical Answer wrote:I think VitaminR [Cogito Ergo Sum] was the most likely target for a nightkill.
And then:
Hypothetical Response wrote:Then you think VitaminR [Cogito Ergo Sum] is town.
Fact is, we don't know exactly what stopped the scum's nightkill. It may have been that they targeted somebody on a locked floor, it may be that their target was protected, it may be that they were role-blocked, it may be that their action was redirected (although from the sound of CES, this is no longer a possibility), it
may
be that they no-killed (although
why
scum would do that is completely beyond me).

I can't really speculate on who I think the scum tried to kill, because such a guess relies on the assumption that the target is necessarily town. Since the two people I trust most to be town (MBF and Machiavellian-Mafia) are both not on the Red Floor (and thus their being targeted would not immediately explain why they failed to die), I am not nearly confident enough to speculate on who I think the scum tried to kill (as that would
further
rely on what types of players are in the scum-group in the first place).
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Post Post #968 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:22 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I think it is a fair assumption however that the missed kill was due to one of {CES, MBL, Ibby}, which is very important considering Drummer is confirming Amelia. Drummer is obv scum.
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Post Post #969 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:35 am

Post by Drummer »

CES wrote:If you're pro-town, Amelia would be pro-town also. I can't believe you're both pro-town as I'm sure M-M, PJ and Mike are pro-town and that would have to make the scum group {Ibaesha, MBL, CES}, which I know is not true. And you practically have to be scum for Amelia to be scum, so you're my #1 choice.
Okay. According to you, the scum group would have to be (ibaesha, mbl, ces) if I'm town. Earlier I said that your logic was painting "scum" all over you from my perspective. You disagreed. Wha...? And now you're laying it out that you're scum if I'm town?! What's with that? How can I
not
think you're scum based on your own argument? I can understand why you claim I'm your #1 choice...but you cannot possibly still say that it doesn't reapply directly onto you.

But wait. It's been brought up that perhaps there are just two scum. I certainly felt that Fritz's role was neutral, waiting to turn scum. I mean, come on, he had psychological problems, right? I guess it's quite possible that there are just two bad guys left. The scum group I was thinking of won't be so cut and paste.
Ibby wrote:They essentially confirmed each other, then today when Drummer gave his list of suspicions, Amelia was conveniently left out.
*shrug* Forgot about her. I don't know what to make of her. It would clear my suspicions of CES a great deal if she were a scum roleblocker. Possible, but it's one of those things that you never know about.
MBF wrote:But first I want Drummer to reveal his targets. As he has said before, scum will not lie now that they know they can be caught. However, we can still test him. Drummer, who did you detect Night 3? And what color is MBL's room? I think I already know the answer to the latter question...
Right. Scum won't lie. So why should I reveal first? On the off chance that they
do
lie, I'll let it be known. Those who want me to reveal fully first--they're just making me more and more suspicious of them.

Of course, if
everyone
else chips in and says, "Drummer, get off your butt and reveal," then I'll reveal the info. But I still see reason for the scum to be putting off the floor-claiming.

Also, there's something that has just come to my attention about who the protection role is, if there is any protection. If I'm right, then we
really
don't want to color claim yet. *sigh* There's too many possible angles of this four floor game.
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Post Post #970 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:36 am

Post by Drummer »

Crap! I didn't read this whole last page. Back in a bit.
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Post Post #971 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:47 am

Post by Drummer »

Let's see...people want me to claim who I checked out. OK, I'll do that. Also, what's this? Hm, yes, it looks like CES is a moron. Or mafia. That's OK too. His insistence that I'm obvious scum is just seeming like mafia thinking they've got the town at LoL and want to win quick. His logic is by no means concrete, though he seems to think it is.

N1--I was locked into my room.

N2--As you probably have figured out, I checked out MBL.

N3--I checked out MM, who had floor-claimed already.
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Post Post #972 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:57 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

petroleumjelly wrote:Wow, that sounds like a loaded question. I don't like it.
I think if everyone gives genuine answers we may be able to detect scum based on the responses. I don't see a problem with the question.
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Post Post #973 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:21 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

If Drummer tells what floor I'm on, that narrows down the possible floors of those who remain, which could be dangerous. Any thoughts from the rest of you on whether or not he should announce his result on me?

Drummer, can you add to your three results whether or not you got a definitive answer each night? Like: N1 got no result N2 got a color N3 got a color.
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Post Post #974 (ISO) » Mon Aug 14, 2006 12:02 pm

Post by mikeburnfire »

Wow. This is pointless. We already know M-M's floor color and *I* could tell everyone MBL's floor color at this point. This information is of seemingly no use to me.
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