no deadlines mafia [game over]
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- Varsoon
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I'm liable to believe that at least one of the four people in my PT is scum, which is why I decided to out the PT in the first place.
That said, it's a fallacy to assume that the same ratio of town to scum in the main thread applies to any PT, so I'd prefer we didn't hunt out of that PT group.
VOTE: Profii- Varsoon
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'cus it's a fallacy to assume the same ratios exist within a neighborhood.
If we're all town in there and I make the mistake of assuming one of us is scum, then I have a 100% chance of mislynching if I concentrate there, whereas the game thread ALWAYS has the assured setup ratio.
And I know if I mislynch in there I'll sunk cost it and keep lynching in there
and if they all flip town then I know I'm up shit creek for being the last one left.
Does that make sense?- Varsoon
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Wheh.
Porkens replaced out.
Anyway; Just because I think THERE MIGHT BE SCUM in our hood doesn't mean I think that lynching in a pool of ONLY THE HOOD helps us at all.
Basically, we've got 24 players.
Assuming singleball (please mod be singleball--I know my wincon indicates multiple teams, but please, please mod) and a normal 1/4 ratio, that means that if we lynch out of the game thread of players, we have an assured 1/4 chance of hitting scum, of which there are 6 players.
If we try to force a pool of lynches out of the neighborhood, we run into a handful of issues:
1. We don't have the guarantee of the same ratio, so way may literally hit no scum.
2. We run the risk of conf-biasing and lynching multiple town
3. We can't know if there's only one scum there, so even if we lynch once from it and hit scum, it doesn't solve the hood.
4. Players can insist on lynching from the hood pool as policy and avoid engaging elsewhere.
5. Even if the hood follows the same ratio that the game thread does with regard to scum to town (1/4), all these other problems exist and, at best, we trade 3 town lives for 1 scum life, which doesn't win us the game.
So I don't really see why outting the hood but suggesting lynching independent of its existence makes me scum.
I think ya'll voting me are either
1. Scum who are eager to see me flip town, pushing the fallacy that there'd be a higher chance of hitting scum if we just keep lynching out of the hood pool
2. Town who don't grasp what I'm saying here/want to pressure me.
But ayyy- Varsoon
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Clearly just trying to protect my own ass, tho.
Profii doesn't even consider my post from a town PoV.
Like
Of course I out the hood--I shouldn't trust it, there COULD be scum there
Of course I don't insist on hunting in the hood--I shouldn't, the same ratios of the game thread ARE NOT mod-confirmed
It's dat simple.- Varsoon
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..me?In post 22, Edosurist wrote:Who wants to see a magic trick?- Varsoon
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@Profii: that's the thing, though--I still said we should just lynch people ignoring the Neighborhood pool, and if we happened to lynch someone in the Neighborhood, it'd be based on their play in the game rather than hood PoE.
If I wanted to be survivalistic about it, I'd probably just not claim the hood at all, work towards pocketing the people inside of it, and hope that their eventual testimony towards me would make the hood look like a double-blind masonry. That's actually a huge part of why I moved to out it; I didn't want hood interactions coloring things in a way that wouldn't be evident in the main game thread.
P-EDIT: There was the hood that all the red mages were in, Valakut.- Varsoon
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Here's the PT: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75377
If that's the one you mean.- Varsoon
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Lolk
In post 4877, Varsoon wrote:SPECTATOR THREAD:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75417
SCUM PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75400
HYDRA PT - SHINING DREAMERS:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75402
HYDRA PT - MAID CAFE:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75403
HYDRA PT - BRONYA ZAYCHIK:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75404
HYDRA PT - REASONABLY RATIONAL:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75405
HYDRA PT - TIBOR AND LUMIA:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75406
HYDRA PT - BAKU AND MUNNA:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75407
JOURNAL PT - ONTHEMARK:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75411
BEST FRIENDS PT - (DUNNSTRAL):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75806
BEST FRIENDS PT - (CREATURE):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75782
BEST FRIENDS PT - (GAMMA EMERALD):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75757
BEST FRIENDS PT - (NANCY DREW 39):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75754
BEST FRIENDS PT - (PURPLE HEART):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75556
BEST FRIENDS PT - (REASONABLY RATIONAL):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75566
BEST FRIENDS PT - (MAID CAFE):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75567
BEST FRIENDS PT - (BRONYA ZAYCHIK):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75568
BEST FRIENDS PT - (ALMOST50):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75569
BEST FRIENDS PT - (VENMAR):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75582
BEST FRIENDS PT - (SKYBIRD):https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75590
BAKU AND MUNNA & REASONABLY RATIONAL PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75495
BAKU AND MUNNA & MAID CAFE PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75497
BAKU AND MUNNA & VENMAR PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75498
SPECTRAL PROCESSION PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75503
MTG - VALAKUT PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75377
UNDERTALE - CATTY AND BRATTY PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75552
UNDERTALE - GRILLBY'S PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75557
GUNDAM - EARTH FEDERATION PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75866
GUNDAM - AEUG PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75867
GUNDAM - ZEON PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75868
GUNDAM - TITANS PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75876
GUNDAM - PARLIAMENT AT DAKAR PT:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75928
(I'll make these public when I get the chance to)- Varsoon
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Like my first post in there in pregame was essentially just 'convince me not to out this hood in my first post'
I was gonna out it no matter what though
And only Nancy responded between that and me being upfront about my intentions.
Xtoxm commented that he didn't think the hood was 'clean' and likely had 1 or 2 scum.- Varsoon
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'cus I'm awesome and you're meanIn post 197, Kokichi Oma wrote:Yes varsoon. What will you do? Do you know why I voted you?
I dunno man.
It's a 24p game and my role is "You can talk to people privately about smash bros"
like
care- Varsoon
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Where was all this concern when your ole boy Varsoon was getting run up, huh?In post 428, sheepsaysmeep wrote:there's an immensely overwhelming amount of support for this wagon which actually concerns me by quite a significant amount
VOTE: Scumsaysmeep- Varsoon
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Spiderverse was really good, probably one of my favorite animated movies ever made.
Also, some shit happened that's really soured me on playing mafia. :/
I'd replace out here but, y'know
no deadlines
just know I'm probably not going to be really engaged or in the game for the next few weeks
if that's okay.
If you guys don't like that or whatever, I can replace, but I don't wanna put that burden on xyxzzy especially when the game's made to cater towards this kinda dip out.
If anyone has questions for me or wanna direct something to me, just bold it at me, k?- Varsoon
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I think it's funny that you came to the same conclusion I did but still asked me why I outted the PT and acted like I didn't come to this conclusion.In post 574, singletonking wrote:FWIW I think it's best to ignore that neighbourhood in terms of scumhunting, i.e. not have it affect your reads in terms of town/scum ratio, except of course that all of them being scum is implausible.- Varsoon
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Resistance-tell is bad
If you vote for a global townread and then go "AW MAN HOWCOME NO ONE ELSE IS VOTE THERE, SUCH RESISTANCE, SO SCUM" you're probably just wrong.
You need to analyze WHY there was resistance to the wagon. Who was on the wagon? Who was off? Who protested it? Who voted elsewhere? What events were responsible for shifting the game momentum away?
Once you grasp at that, you'll be a much better and thorough player.- Varsoon
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Takes a lot of effort from someone far more engaged than me right now.In post 663, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
are you going to do some solving maybe the next time you popinIn post 655, Varsoon wrote:Resistance-tell is bad
If you vote for a global townread and then go "AW MAN HOWCOME NO ONE ELSE IS VOTE THERE, SUCH RESISTANCE, SO SCUM" you're probably just wrong.
You need to analyze WHY there was resistance to the wagon. Who was on the wagon? Who was off? Who protested it? Who voted elsewhere? What events were responsible for shifting the game momentum away?
Once you grasp at that, you'll be a much better and thorough player.
Sorry.- Varsoon
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Even if itIn post 719, singletonking wrote:Varsoon, the issue I have with you is this: you first outed your neighbourhood because you believed it contained at least one scum, but then you were the first to propose that your neighbourhood could be all town. I find these mindsets conflicting.
Can you reconcile this?couldhave scum, that doesn't mean that it does.
I outted the hood because
1. IF there is scum there, then any info we share there is not safe from being stolen.
2. IF there is scum there, ya'll can PoE figure out who scum is later in the game.
3. Regardless of if there is scum there or not, it becomes incredibly obvious when 4 people are having out-of-main-thread discussion; any decent player would realize we have some sort of alternate means of interaction, which may get us falsely scumread. Even basic players catch on to this and get suspicious of players who seem to have info they don't/interactions that they haven't seen.
4. The game thread itself, on the other hand, is guaranteed to have the usual ratio of town to non-town alignments. Hunting there should be our priority, as if we're wrong about scum being in the neighborhood, we PoE ourselves into a sunk-cost 4-town-mislynch.
Does that make sense?
How many times do I have to write this out?- Varsoon
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Contingencies, yeah.In post 723, singletonking wrote:Wait, are you saying that you outed the neighbourhood in case scum were in it, not that you actually think scum is in it?
I literally decided to out it before anyone posted there.- Varsoon
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Sorry, for some reason I mix your names up in my head.In post 767, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
NSG?In post 731, Varsoon wrote:Also, NSG is a member of it and she's admitted to getting pocketed in PTs before.
I just don't think having a 4 man PT is beneficial for town if kept secret.
???
You mean me. - Varsoon
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