Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

Lynching skitter30 is mechanically correct by far

If you want to risk it in more than one way, lynching Drixx is most likely to hit scum imo, and is probably highest information due to how many players talked about his wagon

[Oxy]

The posts sajj was referencing below - it was not a scum claim. at worst it's nai.

Spoiler:

In 245, something is not true = something is a lie.

This isn't even relevant to the game anymore, but I feel like I have to explain this. No, when I said "this is not true," I meant to say "you're mistaken." This is different from accusing you of lying, because being "mistaken" means unintentional whereas "lying" implies intent. Anyway, here's to not misunderstanding each other moving forward.

once again, Oxy gets scumread and then starts townreading the person that does it (this time it's me). I think that's everyone that has called him scummy so far.

I think this is a reach. You were a bit scummy before by virtue of "hey guys i'm gonna show up tomorrow!" and then flaking on us. And after you posted your analysis, you seem kinda town to me. So I think chalking this to "Oxy pockets people who scumread him" is a stretch.

I'm pretty sure the posts are there, I will look for them tomorrow.

Please don't spend time doing this. Unless you want to.

There's a fallacy there. That only applies if you can apply the law of excluded middle, and you cannot here. There are four possible sets:

{Scum, Scum}
{Scum, Town}
{Town, Scum}
{Town, Town}

There exists a possible set where we have not p, but still q

I'm a little too intoxicated to tell if you're right or not. But irregardless, are you going to clarify those two cryptic posts you posted earlier in the game?

Also I don't remember why I was townleaning ruru earlier. I think she's now trying too hard to scumread skitter, a la 632 and 626.

VOTE: ruru

Chag Sameach and happy Easter to all celebrating!

About scheduling: I'm generally unavailable during evenings over the next few days. I wouldn't mind an extension either.

Also if it's me/drixx, scum!me has no reason to pick drixx to vote out of {scioness/nsg/drixx/eth0s} there if that was the proposed plan. I could very easily have voted eth0s; there were two votes there and I could've just let the 24-hour lynch thing happen without involving partner!drixx in it at all to get a mislynch and let the day end fast. Like if I was scum with drixx there's no reason for me not to just support the plan on anyone not my partner without starting all of this in the first place.

I'm not sure I agree that there is no benefit to scum!skitter in choosing scum!Drixx (and I mentioned some of the benefits in my post), but I still need to think a bit more on whether or not scum!skitter would actually do it. And I really don't think it's an alternative to "just let the 24-hour lynch thing happen [...] to get a mislynch and let the day end fast". I find it really hard to imagine a universe where that actually happens, and actively pushing it after 24h would make you look extremely scummy.

Also, I agree that Oxy's vote on pin was weirdly timed, but I feel like it was not necessarily out of character.

Idk what to say beyond this isn't how scum!me would ever play that partnered with scum!drixx. I would never promote a wagon on my partner and put pressure on him and call attention to his lurking-ness if I had multiple other options to push that would be just as easy to push.

Like I would be too worried of oxy's plan actually coming to fruition (even if I didn't think it was immediately going to happen) to start messing around with promoting a wagon on an inactive partner.

Mm, I can see this. At the very least I don't think scum!skitter is a positive indicator of scum!Drixx at this point.

Here Oxy is chiding Skitter for unvoting me, and expresses certainty that anyone hammering me (and leading to my greenie flip) would be lynched automatically on day two with "100% chance" of being scum. The underlying assumption here is that I'm town. Oxy spends quite a few posts trying to walk this assumption back by referring to this as "standard" town play and such, but the damage is done. Especially when compared to the next post I quoted.

Interesting. Personally I thought 404 was fine and I assumed he just hadn't thought much about you flipping red because town wouldn't hammer you at all and scum wouldn't hammer you if you were scum, so I didn't read much into the policy lynch idea, even if it was questionable. But if that was the case then I guess he would have just said that rather than talking about the policy lynch in 412 and 421? I definitely want to hear Oxy's explanation for this now.

I have been reading about drixx's wagon and it really bothers me that nobody considered wagoning NSG for pressure.
She has been catching up for about four days at that time, has rather low content posts and been on site doing other things.

Drixx's last pair of posts at the time were pretty questionable (and still are). I think he's acted scummier than NSG, and has been in the game for longer, so I don't see the problem with the choice. And at this point I feel like any credible threat is almost completely gone after all the discussion.

Also I don't remember why I was townleaning ruru earlier. I think she's now trying too hard to scumread skitter, a la 632 and 626.

VOTE: ruru

I guess that's one reason to vote on someone...

Scummy townie in context of Ruru - I believe what makes her look scummy is her experience playing slightly different mafia games before. E.g. in games with shorter days lurking can be a scumtell.

For the record this is my first forum mafia game. I'd only read through the games on another forum; I never signed because I found the strength and aggression of the players there intimidating. The days were shorter there among other things so I did feel some culture shock.

In post 682, Scioness Sajj wrote:
I have been reading about drixx's wagon and it really bothers me that nobody considered wagoning NSG for pressure.
She has been catching up for about four days at that time, has rather low content posts and been on site doing other things.


Drixx's last pair of posts at the time were pretty questionable (and still are). I think he's acted scummier than NSG, and has been in the game for longer, so I don't see the problem with the choice. And at this point I feel like any credible threat is almost completely gone after all the discussion.

Yes, he did. But what would he gain from making few suspicous posts and disappearing? Do you think things he has posted are scumtells or slips? What in game reasons did he have to lurk?

His posts seemed intended to generate confusion and the 2nd post felt like he was intentionally not clarifying. I think that's more scummy than towny especially when we're starting to approach end of day, there were multiple lurkers, and it seems like there's a decent chance we'll be scrambling at the last minute to agree on a day 1 lynch.

I feel like it's not nearly scummy enough to get scum!Drixx lynched regardless, plus since it's an isolated couple posts rather than trolling throughout the thread, he can always say it was a reaction test whether or not that was his motivation. (eth0s also did a reaction test that I scumread while he was posting less; the difference is that his didn't actively generate confusion which makes it not scummy to me in retrospect.) So yes, I think scum!Drixx has something to gain from it, and town has something to gain by Drixx explaining himself, regardless of his alignment.

I see the wagon being build from two parts - for pressure and to lynch.
Ofrhz and skitter voted him becuase they wanted to hear answers to things they didn't understand, that makes perfect sense to me. You and Oxy voted with what looks like intention to lynch. And problems start here. Intention to lynch on a low info wagon makes me think of intention of a mislynch. You both have jumped on 'we demand answers!' wagon with 'he's scummy enough to die!' reasoning with added argument 'but nobody is stupid enough to hammer'.
It bothers me. I need to check who said what and how it played out again.

The play that could have been made, but wasn't, depends on players collectively bluffing without revealing that they are bluffing.

In post 692, ofrhz wrote:
Also I don't remember why I was townleaning ruru earlier. I think she's now trying too hard to scumread skitter, a la 632 and 626.

VOTE: ruru


I guess that's one reason to vote on someone...

Do you understand why ofrhz is scumreading you? Do you agree?

No, I don't understand why he's scumreading me.

[Scioness Sajj]

Why would town her not be interested in why her town read is suddenly scum reading her? She explained it as trying to generate discussion but she literally shrug it off.

Math. I'm on phone, quoted what?

[skitter30]

I don't really have a large amount of time over the next couple of days to try to derail this so if this is going to end with a me-lynch I want to lay out my reads before that happens. (and yeah I never get nk'd today, can't project with certainty past that without knowing how future phases go)

-> Oxy I think is pocketing people and trying to artifiically make a townbloc and his posts just feel super fake to me. They seem to designed to get people to agree with him or townread him. I also feel like he's looking for mislynches that he can push through (the scioness thing, the pin vote/unvote was horrific, the drixx thing, now me). I absolutely do not townread him and I don't get why Math is and I really, really want people to re-evaluate him because he doesn't feel genuine to me.

-> Scioness, in contrast, feels very nuanced and like her thought process and projection in general makes sense. (I don't think that's a slip). I never understood most of the reasons people have been giving to scumread her.

-> ofrzh is incredibly obvtown and just bleeds town with like every other post and like don't lynch him.

-> eth0s was probably town and given the deadline I'm fine just going with that for today but I would re-evaluate tomorrow. Math I don't particularly like and I have no idea why the fuck he thinks no-lynching is ever a good idea here.

-> Drixx has been like absent for a lot of the game and I don't have a really good feel for him this game. His read on me yesterday felt kinda like he was shading me and building up to a vote on me tbh. I do agree with him on oxy but I'm kinda wondering now if he saw that oxy was under scrutiny so decided to push there anyways. I do think that in a town!oxy world drixx is more likely to be scum and vice versa.

-> nsg hasn't really given me a reason to townread her. Like I don't really scumread her and I don't really townread her. She just kinda is. I do still think she was active lurking, but yeah. I do think that math is probably able to read her and I'd probably just let him figure it out; I think that works unless it's just math/nsg.

-> ruru I'm kinda conflicted on and like kinda gutscumread her - she feels like reserved kinda? Like out of the main swing of things? Like she doesn't really know how to interact with the thread almost? She has a certain awkwardness to her that I kinda scumread. That being said I do like some of her posts individually and I do like her thought process sometimes.

-> I kinda gut-townread pin but I don't know how to articulate it.

------

Scum!oxy I think leads to a higher chance of town!drixx and town!nsg and town!ethos

town!oxy makes scum!drixx and/or scum!nsg more plausible

scioness/ruru don't make sense to me

scioness/oxy don't make sense to me

ruru/eth0s don't make sense to me

I don't think oxy/pin is a thing.

[Scioness Sajj]

Math oh that one. The quote was in those posts I have posted for you earlier one of first points of my case.

[Mathdino]

Oxy pulled it, thanks
Yeah I'm gonna need the explanation of why that's a scumclaim
Granted reading through those quotes without snipped nested quotes makes me figuratively physically ill

I'll see if I get a burst of intuition tomorrow but rn my stance is essentially "Drixx probscum, would lynch skitter30 for claiming VT, wouldn't really give a shit if we ran time out to the deadline and i will not be providing my vote for deadline lynches"

[Drixx]

FWIW: I actually agree with mathdino that the lynch should be in {Skitter, Me} and that decision basically rests entirely upon whether or not people are comfortable with taking Skitter to endgame. Literally everyone in game has interacted with and about me. When I flip green, there should be some useful info from that.

I don't particularly want to eat rope. I'm rusty from taking some time off and play is what knocks the rust off ... but it is what it is.

[skitter30]

Lynching skitter30 is mechanically correct by far

If you want to risk it in more than one way, lynching Drixx is most likely to hit scum imo, and is probably highest information due to how many players talked about his wagon

Yeah, I agree that I'm probably the best lynch mechanically and I laid out exactly where I'm at so I think I said everything important and like it would be nice if people actually paid some amount of attention to that after I flip; I really hate it when people ignore me once I'm gone.

(Btw for your meta dive I never flip scum here; I'm like waaaaay out of my scumrange here.)

I'm going to VOTE: drixx cuz I do think he has a fairly decent chance of hitting scum by PoE and I townread most other people more.

I have a shit-ton of hw that I gotta do by Thursday so I'll check back in in a few hours and if people have things they urgently want me to answer lmk.

[Oxy]

Drixx, considering that your vote is on me, and that I had twice the interactions with/about everyone than anyone else in this thread, how the fuck is your lynchpool {Skitter, Drixx}

[Mathdino]

(Btw for your meta dive I never flip scum here; I'm like waaaaay out of my scumrange here.)

And fwiw I can confirm that this is accurate

This really sucks but there's a definite bright side to not running up prs

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:
Need time to think about this
May just sheep NSGs decision if she comes back

[skitter30]

(Btw for your meta dive I never flip scum here; I'm like waaaaay out of my scumrange here.)

And fwiw I can confirm that this is accurate

This really sucks but there's a definite bright side to not running up prs

Yeah this basically; I don't ever respond to pressure like this as scum.

If you don't think that I flip scum I think you should try to analyze the wagon by staying off of it and forcing the sketchy people to vote and see how they justify it.

[Mathdino]

You just made my ability to analyse it based on that null though

No offence because I think you generally have really good reads (see open 711)

But I think you sometimes spew TOO much

What just happened case in point

[pinturicchio]

@math: saying that you want to no-lynch or vote drixx and then falling back on me when that idea gets some resistance after you say that my posts are kinda townie and after I say I'm fine with it is not exactly a good look.

Also after I flip town I want everyone (cough math) reconsider oxy cuz his posts are incredibly pocket-y and just feel fake.

Soooo what's your read on Dino? Because first you throw some shade saying that his push on you could make him look scummy, and then you tell everyone and specifically Dino to reconsider his read on Oxy...

@Skitter

[Scioness Sajj]

Her townread has just voted her. She doesn't understand why and she doesn't want to know. If she was town she would engage it head on like she did with a lot other things. If she is scum and don't want more attention she will shrug it off and hope it won't come up again.

[Mathdino]

I often just ignore it when my townreads vote for me tbh
It's a good way on this site to not draw more attention
Sometimes townplay has components of scumplay

[Scioness Sajj]

Or that sheeped vote on Drixx. Guess who did something like that in 1851? The only difference was that she straight out posted a naked vote and I had to be persuaded to hammer.

[skitter30]

You just made my ability to analyse it based on that null though

No offence because I think you generally have really good reads (see open 711)

But I think you sometimes spew TOO much

What just happened case in point

Yeah I do that sometimes

(I sometimes tell scum how they ought to be playing/defending something by mistake and that's also why I try to ask super open-ended questions since otherwise I tend to ask leading questions that guide people by telling them the answer I want to hear / the answer I think is 'correct')

[Scioness Sajj]

I don't know if you don't think that I'm right then I can't lynch her alone.

[skitter30]

@math: saying that you want to no-lynch or vote drixx and then falling back on me when that idea gets some resistance after you say that my posts are kinda townie and after I say I'm fine with it is not exactly a good look.

Also after I flip town I want everyone (cough math) reconsider oxy cuz his posts are incredibly pocket-y and just feel fake.

Soooo what's your read on Dino? Because first you throw some shade saying that his push on you could make him look scummy, and then you tell everyone and specifically Dino to reconsider his read on Oxy...

@Skitter

Probably town in general, especially given eth0s, but in a micro context voting me after saying {drixx/no-lynch} was kinda weird, but he fleshed that out subsequently; also no-lynching is never a good idea here.

I think that he has good reads and I don't get why he has such a vastly different read on oxy than me and I want him to at least consider my perspective.

[Oxy]

Or that sheeped vote on Drixx. Guess who did something like that in 1851? The only difference was that she straight out posted a naked vote and I had to be persuaded to hammer.

wait, who?

[Oxy]

oh, you mean you did something like that in 1851 when you were persuaded to hammer as scum? okay i get it now i think.

[Scioness Sajj]

She had a long 1v1 with skitter over that unvote thing. She didn't vote skitter once even though the exchange didn't change her mind. Yet she voted NSG for three different reasons that in the end equal to a reaction test.
That's it, I will not speak of ruru till D2.

p.edit I thought you have read my ISO yeah, following a leader is perfect for newbscum.

[Oxy]

yeah, i just all sorts of confused myself about what you were trying to say there. I'm lots of confused right now about skitter and drixx both scum reading me and yet basically demanding to 1v1 each other.

[Oxy]

i'm basically just scratching my head about a lot of things right now