Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Scioness Sajj]

yeah true. I'm content with my vote

yeah probably, don't see the appeal

[Oxy]

Okay, so let's do some associations, since all of a sudden it's in vogue again. Personally, I don't really see why Ofrhz + Scioness is less likely than the others at the moment.

Starting with my expanded list of possible teams
Everything here is off the top of my head, so please correct errors

Pin + Scioness - some busing; pin made a case on scioness, scioness hasn't pushed a strong read of pintu either eay

Skitter + Ofrhz - some interactions, but nothing that rules this out. This moment in particular could be interesting with a red flip

Scioness + Ofrhz - Ofrhz called oxy v sajj a tvt; sajj called ofrhz townie other than his association with me. She's voting him because he "seems different" right now; the 1v1 I instigated was pretty lack luster, and it just sort of fizzled out with questions unanswered. You're saying you think this would be a harder bus, but what if they never really expected these wagons to end up as the choices when Sajj voted Ofrhz? Ofrhz did not seem terribly excited to vote sajj, after all.

Pin + Skitter - Pin was first on the skitter wagon when it looked like she was the lynch, but did happily jump to ruru for a moment there when he had the chance. Skitter and Pin are both currently on this wagon. I can't remember any other significant interactions off the top of my head.

Scioness + Skitter - lots of hard defending of the other from both sides. This would be kind of surprising

[Scioness Sajj]

what do you mean by pushed a read?

[Oxy]

I'm saying that I don't think you had a read on pintu that you were both confident and active in trying to advance that read.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm going entirely from memory.

[ofrhz]

I would write a lengthy thing on why Scioness and me doesn’t make sense, but The fact that Scioness doesn’t even seem to care to argue your Scioness/me hypothesis kinda makes it untrue.

Like she knows I’m going to flip green and her partner is someone else.

[ruru]

@ruru I think we have wagons on the two players with the highest scum equity in the game. Could you remind me your current reads on Pin and Skitter so that I can take them into account? I just don't want to look stuff up right this second.

---

Oxy -

Town

Ruru -

My strongest town read

NSG -

Mathdino's whole shtick is self appraisal, he is very proud of his NSG read, and he must have had 90%+ confidence in his NSG read this game(or he wouldn't have sheeped NSG's somewhat confident read on Pinturicchio.) Not sheeping Mathdino on this read 100% seems bad because he has a far greater ability to read her than I can hope for in this game.

Maybe I'm biased here because I don't want to lose to AFK scum, but to me it's still pretty crazy that anyone could have that accurate of a read based on the information he had. (I read Mathdino's wiki though and apparently he is fairly accurate... but I imagine he usually has more information to base it off of too than just one part of D1? idk)

Skitter -

My gut, Mathdino, and NSG are all town reading skitter. I can't remember off the top of my head what your current read on skitter is, but I don't think you have bigly confidence in this read right now? Correct me if I'm wrong

Yeah no. Like she posts things that seem so implausible from town to me but then she also posts things like 1752 which are also hard to imagine from scum. I still scumread her a bit, but I'm not confident

Pinturicchio -

My weakest town read, but he is an enigma

I'm sort of here too. His townrange is evidently large and most of his pairings don't seem particularly likely. I do think NSG+pin could be a thing though.

I think PoE + Game fatigue are why you haven't seen a case on Ofrhz.

Am I tunneling? PoE aside for a minute like what are the most scummy things ofrhz has posted in your opinion

[Scioness Sajj]

no clue how one would advance a town read

I've spoken about my pintu townread few times already and he is next to skitter in my most recent readlist.

p.edit - why would I or anybody (beside pintu) argue about that thing Oxy is posting? what oxy wrote does make sense and it can't be proven otherwise pre flips.
I see you have developed a scum read on my ofrhz, what's up with that?

[ofrhz]

What he wrote really doesn’t make sense for anyone who has been paying attention to our interactions. I’m at work and don’t really have the time to write a long essay but like no shit, it can’t be proven until after a flip. But that’s not a good argument is it? Like you’re confident I’m scum, which is also something you can’t prove until after a flip.

[ofrhz]

When I flip town, people should put more scrutiny on Scioness, not less ffs

[Scioness Sajj]

nothing oxy wrote about our interactions seems incorrect, though.

I had a townread on you D1, it disappeared as D2 progressed. I don't remember what you said about my 1v1 with oxy but I remember that you had a townread on me afterward. the rest of what he said is to skitter and there is nothing in our interaction that would be hard proof against bussing, even though both you and I know it isn't true.

[Scioness Sajj]

from time to time

i feel like a villain of this game

[skitter30]

Do you actually think we win the game by lynching ofrhz though?

I kind of want to see what skitter has to say today because I feel like ofrhz is a significantly worse lynch than SS and she was expressing doubts yesterday.

Like, I feel like SS is pretty scummy and apparently only 2 other players want to lynch her, one of whom is lynching in self defense? And the ofrhz wagon formed pretty easily. I don't know

And pin/NSG can you please explain why you think SS is not a good lynch

Basically part of ofrhz's reaction to his wagon seemed kinda townie to me (like trying to find out where people would look for scum if he flipped town). But idk if he can't fake that.

I would write a lengthy thing on why Scioness and me doesn’t make sense, but The fact that Scioness doesn’t even seem to care to argue your Scioness/me hypothesis kinda makes it untrue.

Like she knows I’m going to flip green and her partner is someone else.

And some posts ping me, like this one. Earlier he says he isn't really scumreading her, but this last line feels reachy and like trying-too-hard-to-scumread-her if that makes sense.

And I really don't think scioness is scum though. I don't want to vote there today.

[skitter30]

basically if it was svs I feel like scioness would be more convicted wrt an ofrzh lynch after intent was posted

[Oxy]

I'm going through his whole ISO for you right now ruru

I'm up to about post 450 right now, and early conclusions are:

Ofrhz + Scioness is not a team after all

Ofrhz is probably town.

I'm going to keep working through it, but at this exact second I'm not feeling an ofrhz lynch as much any more.

[Oxy]

Optional post: Just a lot of Ofrhz posts with commentary. More to come. I've made zero effort to format, so no hard feelings if you don't read.

Spoiler:

You also posted this, though, which reads like an absolute statement to me:

Oh what my last post didn’t take

I don’t think lurking is a scum tell and the game just opened so wanting to hear from people who’ve been “afk for a long time”? That’s just grasping at straws

Saying "I don't think lurking is a scum tell

when

the game just opened [...]" would be a bit of a different story to me.

You're harping on me for using the word "and" instead of "when?" I thought my meaning was obvious given the context of the rest of my post/sentence. I can kinda see where your confusion is coming from, but it still feels like too much of a stretch, and I still think you were building a strawman here.

"harping", "Your argument is reasonable but it's a strongman." Feels like an over emotional reaction

Very early to say but I wouldn't mind a wagon on one of the lurkers at some point today tbqh

I actually agree with this

Ofrhz proceeded to never push this position.

Also, I have a question for everyone here. If you could choose your role at the beginning of the game, which would you prefer?

mafia roleblocker

Hiding in plain sight? (YES I KNOW THIS IS A STRETCH, but 2 live pr's and no evidence of night actions...)

Are you saying he's not interested in knowing who you think is town? Or something else?

He said he was aware of me not understanding his townreads and refused to explain them. It's in 43. And judging by his interactions with Skitter I believe his is being difficult to me on purpose.

Thanks for clarifying. I’ll go back and reread this exchange with this in mind

Example being me having to make a trade with him just now. My reads for an answer to his to my question. I can quote examples if you want more. The 1v1 felt pretty one-sided to me though.

Interesting. I didn't pick up on this earlier, but i'm going to go back and read with this in mind once I get off work.

I just spent a ridiculously long time going through Oxy v Sajj; it was hard to follow because there was so much talking over each other. From Oxy's side, part of this is understandable because Sajj's writing style is friggin hard to follow.

On the other side, Sajj makes leaping assumptions about what Oxy says and is at points putting words into his mouth. Considering this is a text-based game and figuring out what each person is trying to say is important, I generally think this is suspicious. However, Sajj's defensiveness comes off as genuine. I'm inclined to think this is a massive town v town spat at this point.

Ofrhz had found a number of things he didn't like about Sajj in Oxy v Sajj, e.g, "That question you asked was a stupid question" post. Still, he read her as town because her defense felt genuine, whatever that meant.

166 and 183 amongst others probably make them not a thing. On the other hand, calling your partner's questions stupid might make for great distancing.

@Mod

, when do we get replacements? For westen and callitwhatyouwant

Someone mentioned that scum ask for prods on their partners. Would make pin + ofrhz more likely, but that pair is just not a thing. This post is probably NAI, and I'm losing to NSG + Ofrhz, so ...

This overly cautious attitude is how people fly under the radar. We can't be afraid to put people at L-2. and this is more directed at Oxy, but I have never advocated for lynching ruru, otherwise I would be actually be putting forth an aggressive argument to get other people to vote for her.

This seemed weird to me at the time. We need to be less cautious, but not me, I've never advocated lynching my top scum read.

Wait, after rereading more carefully, 313 doesn't even make sense. Oxy said he still town leaned ruru and didn't want to see her lynched in 305, which is before you unvoted ruru. So when you said "feels like people are coming around to voting her and no reason to put her into claiming theritory just yet," what people are you referring to...??? That post is all over the place.

Going back and re-evaluating Sajj.

But few of these "I'll go back and reread with this in mind" or "I didn't like this" ever lead to reads.

pedit: @Sajj - In a word, no, especially in light of her last post. I just need her to address one more thing that was making me suspicious about her. In case we misunderstand each other again, the rest of the people who have been active seem townish to very town to me; I leaned scum for ruru, which by default, made her the most suspicious out of everybody.
pedit again: Dude, she's not in danger of being lynched. If she gets brought to L-1, I would have reconsidered, but like I just said, who in this game is stupid enough to quick hammer this wagon?

At this point Ofrhz is actually scum reading no one... which might actually be a town tell now that I think about it.

Sorry I'm in a rush, so I haven't thought this through very well. My reluctance stems from the fact that we literally have nothing on NSG and next to nothing on eth0s. If pinturrichio lays down the hammer in the 24 hours, we'll be going into D2 with no information about those two. Regardless of how Drixx flips, I think we need more from them. Feel free to correct me, because this wagon happened quickly - I really haven't thought it through.

Basically what skitter said.

I also have another reason to not rush to lynch right away, but I don’t want to share it right now. I think L-2 is good for this wagon

Pedit: I’m on a tablet and can’t really follow or type fast enough. But Plz don’t lynch

This is different from the ruru wagon because last time you (Oxy) said you wouldn’t be voting for ruru. So only pin could bring ruru to L-1.

I basically don’t trust pinturrichio to not lol hammer (sorry pin I like you a lot but your play is exceedingly eccentric). And I can definitely see town pin laying down the last vote since he already thinks drixx sajj is a team so town would be at a severe disadvantage tomorrow in this case.

Anyway if this wagon doesn’t get the rest of the players talking, I don’t know what will lmao

Okay, yeah, these are really townie

[Scioness Sajj]

oxy if you are looking for a scum based on associations with me then good luck with that

[Oxy]

I'm not? No where was this implied? I just read through your entire early day interaction with Ofrhz, and you're not scum with him.

I know I've had that thought previously but time and paranoia make the impression less strong.

If the two of you faked that, then let me be the first to applaud you. Well done.

[Scioness Sajj]

I mean as soon as you realized ofrhz can't be scum with me you have dropped his scum read on him so

[Oxy]

Nah, that's not a fair interpretation. The last two sets of quotes in that spoiler were really townie.

Taking 15 minutes and going back at it.

[Scioness Sajj]

it also sort of explains why you have that epiphany about skitter being scum two days ago

[skitter30]

it also sort of explains why you have that epiphany about skitter being scum two days ago

What do you mean by this?

[Oxy]

Starting with the expanded list of possibilities again, as a quick thought experiment. Crossing out Sajj + Ofrhz

Scioness + Ofrhz

Pin + Scioness
Pin + Skitter
Scioness + Skitter
Skitter + Ofrhz

Without taking reads into consideration, this clearly calls for a skitter lynch.

If you take into account reads, namely NSG, ruru, mathdino, my gut all calling skitter town

we're left with

Pin + Sajj

but i really want pin to be town...

[Scioness Sajj]

it also sort of explains why you have that epiphany about skitter being scum two days ago

What do you mean by this?

He first voted you by poe than engaged and found you super scummy. When I asked him why he is scumreading you he quoted all the things after the vote.
Nothing before that in his iso hints that he was scumreading you. It reminded me how he first freaked out and voted me and started that big push.

[Scioness Sajj]

I mean, if he still thinks I'm scum which he obviously does then he is looking for a partner. And then you ''dared'' to find him scummy/antitown and he freaked out on you and sorta tunneled.

It does more sense coming from scum!oxy i guess, but I don't think scum!oxy would push you the same way he was pushing me.

[skitter30]

Skitter - My gut, Mathdino, and NSG are all town reading skitter. I can't remember off the top of my head what your current read on skitter is, but I don't think you have bigly confidence in this read right now? Correct me if I'm wrong

a) since when are you gut-townreading me?

b) why are you sheeping math/NSG now? (ie and not earlier)