Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[UglyDuck]

Also, I agree with the Dino statement that Vigs are "anti town".

The idea of crowd sourcing the kills is... ok... but bc we have to do it out loud where skum can read it that kind of sucks.

I think that the inherit value a Vig has for the Town side goes up and up as the game continues (because of information gained), while adding the risk going up and up of them potentially getting lynched or NKed. However, still 0% chance if you don't shoot of shooting a team mate.

Real question here - would Vig staying silent and waiting to shoot until a future night be the worst idea?
It might have the effect of pushing skum into a fake claim that they could CC.
It would generate the situation down the road some time where there is going to be that inevitable plurality lynch, and if the lynch is bad then shot will have much more of a chance being directed at skum (as opposed to N1).
IDK - just thinking out loud.

[UglyDuck]

oh, i misunderstood you.

no, the vig does not claim.

ok that makes more sense.

[ofrhz]

WTF

[pinturicchio]

I'm not asking for a vig claim, I was asking about what the designated shot should claim so the vig doesn't accidentally kill a PR, but whatever, I'm too stupid to understand

[skitter30]

OK, I guess more running thoughts, starting ~page 25

-> I feel like oxy is trying too hard to scumread ofrhz. Like 729 is an example. 731 too.

-> @oxy, 679 - my point is that pushing a pl on someone that you're townreading is scummy. I think he's lynchbait. Math is townreading him. Math, *at the time he was townreading him*, said he wanted to PL him. I'm aware that he is not actively pushing him right now (now = ~page 27 and whenever we initially had that convo). The point that I'm making is that Math agreed he was lynch-baity and *indicated he was cool with a pl on him anyways*

-> 680 - feels kinda weird? Like too agressive for what UD actually did.

-> 690 -math's read on me is kinda weird and kinda ... passive is maybe a good word? I don't think ofrhz is playing that differently from 1859 (or at least, that I don't think that the differences can't be explained by the fact that he has slightly more experience this time around. He even played differently day1 of 1859 from day2 of 1859). He feels kinda nuanced to me and a few of his posts I think more likely than not don't come from town.

-> @ruru, 693 - I'm not really reading AP's posts right now tbh. The gimmick is hard for me to parse and his logic is really weird. I'm fairly confident that he's not-scum if you're town, and I'm pretty sure you're town, and that's enough for me to townbin for today and re-evaluate later when I have more time. Also the push on you is kinda bad, but he doesn't really have enough in-thread presence/credibility/charisma/whatever that I think it's like going to snowball or whatever, so I'm not really caring that much about what he's posting.

-> I kinda townread UD's 715 - I don't think newbscum naturally finds other people not-suspicious for 'not-lining-them-up-for-a-mislynch'. Same with 721.

-> 739 - right, so that's why I think that was a townie post from ofrhz cuz I don't think that scum, like, actually say that. (And definitely not to their partners)

-> @oxy: K, so you're like spreasheeting interactions people have with each other. Is it a general scum-trait that scum don't interact with their partners? Is it a scum-trait for either ofrhz or the worst specifically? If yes, why do you think that? If not, why on earth is that relevant, and why do you keep bringing it up, and are you using it as evidence of them being partners? And if you don't think their interactions are tvt, why do you think it's svs and not, say, svt?

OK, I got up to like ~page 32, and I have class nowish again.

Sorry for being so behind. Weekly problem sets that take >20 hours to do shouldn't be a thing imo

[Oxy]

I'm not asking for a vig claim, I was asking about what the designated shot should claim so the vig doesn't accidentally kill a PR, but whatever, I'm too stupid to understand

I was talking to the duck. the vig target does claim - i think.

[pinturicchio]

I'm not asking for a vig claim, I was asking about what the designated shot should claim so the vig doesn't accidentally kill a PR, but whatever, I'm too stupid to understand

I was talking to the duck. the vig target does claim - i think.

I was talking to the duck, too.

[Oxy]

@oxy: K, so you're like spreasheeting interactions people have with each other. Is it a general scum-trait that scum don't interact with their partners? Is it a scum-trait for either ofrhz or the worst specifically? If yes, why do you think that? If not, why on earth is that relevant, and why do you keep bringing it up, and are you using it as evidence of them being partners? And if you don't think their interactions are tvt, why do you think it's svs and not, say, svt?

Yeah, I'd bet good money it's AI for the Worst.
If he's in a thread, and you're in a thread, town!duckling engages with you. Some fluff, sure, but also about the game.

So when I scum read Ofrhz, and I scum read The Worst, and then I go and see that even though both of them were talking in the thread around the same time for dozens of pages, the worst hasn't said a single word about the game directly to Ofrhz (other than to eventually say he was scum), I think it is good complimentary evidence to my scum reads.

[Oxy]

I'm not asking for a vig claim, I was asking about what the designated shot should claim so the vig doesn't accidentally kill a PR, but whatever, I'm too stupid to understand

I was talking to the duck. the vig target does claim - i think.

I was talking to the duck, too.

okay, good!

[ofrhz]

Dino, do you think scum would pick Vig knowing that you are in the game?

Hmm, setting aside the “what would scum do,” wouldn’t it be apparent when there’s a vig by day2? I think it’s likely for a vig to kill on N1 when the town:scum ratio is guaranteed to be in town’s favor.

since d1 reads tend to be shit, I could actually see why they would want to wait until N2. But in the worst case scenario (2 mislynches and vig shoots town), this would bring us to MyLo D3.

...eh this role is a gambit.

yeah no, if there were two mislynches, vig wouldn’t use their night action. Point still stands though, why wouldn’t a vig shoot N1?

Here, I was trying to figure out if the vig should shoot N1. UD, you were literally scumreading me for this. And then you go ahead and post:

Real question here - would Vig staying silent and waiting to shoot until a future night be the worst idea?

It might have the effect of pushing skum into a fake claim that they could CC.
It would generate the situation down the road some time where there is going to be that inevitable plurality lynch, and if the lynch is bad then shot will have much more of a chance being directed at skum (as opposed to N1).
IDK - just thinking out loud.

But actually, how can you have such a strong scumread on me (you apparently want to both vote lynch me and vig shoot me) and then turn around and do the exact same thing?

[UglyDuck]

Pagetop

Votecount 1.8

ofrhz(3)

~ UglyDuck(20), Mathdino(114), Oxy(85)

UglyDuck(2)

~ pinturicchio(31), ofrhz(78)

ruru(1)

~ AP(56)

Oxy(1)

~ Scioness Sajj(33)

Mathdino(1)

~ the worst(182)

AP(1)

~ ruru(55)


Not Voting (3): Sunshine13(27), Mohab500(44), skitter30(36) , Draynth(16)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-30 16:45:00)

MOD NOTES

Sunshine13 is VLA until Tuesday April 24, 2018.
I have obviously used Mathdino's coding to use the automated voting settings here. So, thank you to him as I tried and could not get it working when I opened the game.

So the above was the most recent official VC (from like half a day ago or something). Currently we are at:

ofrhz(1) ~ UglyDuck(20),
UglyDuck(5) ~ pinturicchio(31), ofrhz(78), Mathdino(114), Oxy(85), AP(56)
Oxy(1) ~ Scioness Sajj(33)
Mathdino(1) ~ the worst(182)
AP(1) ~ ruru(55)

Not Voting (3): Sunshine13(27), Mohab500(44), skitter30(36) , Draynth(16)


Little wagon analysis to be taken into consideration.
The ofrhz wagon just literally 100% dismantled itself to move to me (Math and Oxy both moving from ofrhz to me, leaving me the only one on ofrhz). AP jumped off their random OMGUS ruru vote to bring it to L2.
Reasons aside for a second - just look at the layout of the votes rn.

I have to write this up from my perspective as Town, and obv there are not a lot of people that think I am, but just try for a second:
- If I am skum then assuredly within the 5 voting me now there must also be skum. But like what, absolutely 0 attempt at a counter wagon on anyone else? If you think I am skum then it should make AP look super towny actually because they could of jumped on ofrhz with me.
- Now, as it happens, not skum here. So what just happened is a wagon was just dismantled to create my L-2. This actually creates the exact opposite point for AP and FOS hard on ofrhz. Skum loves Town vs Town Wagons, so if I am town AND ofrhz is town... this situation should not be happening.

I guess the exception to the above would be if actually 100% of skum is all not voting currently, but I find that unlikely.
Obv this isn't going to mean a ton if you are not willing to consider my pov, but I would give it a read.

[UglyDuck]

Dino, do you think scum would pick Vig knowing that you are in the game?

Hmm, setting aside the “what would scum do,” wouldn’t it be apparent when there’s a vig by day2? I think it’s likely for a vig to kill on N1 when the town:scum ratio is guaranteed to be in town’s favor.

since d1 reads tend to be shit, I could actually see why they would want to wait until N2. But in the worst case scenario (2 mislynches and vig shoots town), this would bring us to MyLo D3.

...eh this role is a gambit.

yeah no, if there were two mislynches, vig wouldn’t use their night action. Point still stands though, why wouldn’t a vig shoot N1?

Here, I was trying to figure out if the vig should shoot N1. UD, you were literally scumreading me for this. And then you go ahead and post:

Real question here - would Vig staying silent and waiting to shoot until a future night be the worst idea?

It might have the effect of pushing skum into a fake claim that they could CC.
It would generate the situation down the road some time where there is going to be that inevitable plurality lynch, and if the lynch is bad then shot will have much more of a chance being directed at skum (as opposed to N1).
IDK - just thinking out loud.

But actually, how can you have such a strong scumread on me (you apparently want to both vote lynch me and vig shoot me) and then turn around and do the exact same thing?

so I mean I put it there, and then you bolded it.... I said it was a real question. As in, "admitting I could of been wrong, someone give me some insight"....

[AP]

Obv this isn't going to mean a ton if you are not willing to consider my pov, but I would give it a read.

Obv I'm not considering it bc I know my own alignment, so even if you are town I still can't see it from your pov.

[UglyDuck]

Obv this isn't going to mean a ton if you are not willing to consider my pov, but I would give it a read.

Obv I'm not considering it bc I know my own alignment, so even if you are town I still can't see it from your pov.

Which one are you not considering? The one where i say your town or the one where i say your skum?

[ofrhz]

so I mean I put it there, and then you bolded it.... I said it was a real question. As in, "admitting I could of been wrong, someone give me some insight"....

My question wasnt a real question because I didn’t demarcate it as such? Like really?

I’m willing to consider your POV as town only because skitter said so, but it’s really hard for me to do when your scumreading me for really bad (and now hypocritical!) reasons

[ruru]

-> I don't really get the scumreads on ofrhz

Yeah especially Md pushing him without SRing him and saying it's because some of his TRs were saying ofrhz seemed different is like... idk

Especially because I was TRing ofrhz and Md was TRing me? (I understand totally if he thinks I'm a weak player and my reads are likely bad because it's true, but yeah)

-> UD's posting is kinda gross but I kinda don't think it comes from newbscum tbh. It's almost *too* bad. And like too naive maybe? And there's a few of his posts in ~700s (which is wehre I am) that I have trouble seeing coming from newbscum

Yeah I'm not strongly scumreading him for it although he seems like a better lynch than ofrhz at least

-> oxy might be scum here tbh. Last time, despite bieng super tunneled, there were some posts that I didnt' really think came from scum. I haven't really seen any posts like that here. I feel like he's almost tyring too hard to scumread ofrhz. I think he might be buddying math. Like I've seen nothing to townread and last time despite being *super tunneled* I saw things to townread, so that's worrying me.

Yeah I have the feeling one of {Oxy, Md} is scum. Probably not both but I don't know? I don't really like their voting either way

Would you be satisfied with flipping Oxy today because I feel like I still wouldn't know what to do with Md if Oxy flipped red and that makes me less interested in lynching Oxy

I'm not sure if that even makes sense though honestly

I have too many null/scumreads

[the worst]

Especially because I was TRing ofrhz and Md was TRing me? (I understand totally if he thinks I'm a weak player and my reads are likely bad because it's true, but yeah)

RIGHT when he has reads of his own why does he sheep onto a shit wagon?!??

Also havent analysed but it feels like votes are flinging onto the ducks wayyyy too quickly whereas nobody has voted with me v Math despite the fact he just doesn't feel right.

No one else seeing this?

[ofrhz]

UNVOTE:

[Scioness Sajj]

hmmmmmmm

how do i make a readable catch up of 20 pages? post per page? spoilers? grouping by content?

[ruru]

Grouping by content/player is most readable for me

[the worst]

Whatever feels best to you Sajj. Just make it nice to read.

[Scioness Sajj]

haha
nice to read my posts?

good one

[the worst]

Your posting style so far has been mostly rad, keep it up

[ofrhz]

I have to write this up from my perspective as Town, and obv there are not a lot of people that think I am, but just try for a second:
- If I am skum then assuredly within the 5 voting me now there must also be skum. But like what, absolutely 0 attempt at a counter wagon on anyone else? If you think I am skum then it should make AP look super towny actually because they could of jumped on ofrhz with me.
- Now, as it happens, not skum here. So what just happened is a wagon was just dismantled to create my L-2. This actually creates the exact opposite point for AP and FOS hard on ofrhz. Skum loves Town vs Town Wagons, so if I am town AND ofrhz is town... this situation should not be happening.

I guess the exception to the above would be if actually 100% of skum is all not voting currently, but I find that unlikely.

I don’t think this post came from scum

Assuming you’re town:
By your reasoning, I think Math, Oxy, and AP did a pro town thing in moving their vote onto you. This is to avoid running up two wagons, and if they were scum, they would have left their vote on you. I had all three of those people as townreads/townleans, so ok.

I think it’s very possible that at least two scum are not voting for you. 7 people not on the wagon, 5 after you strike the people I think are strong townreads.

[Mathdino]

Don't fall into the trap of thinking scum is on every wagon
UglyDuck could definitely be a radioactive wagon for scum