Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

Let's dance with the lawyer.

Case me bro. I know what the case was in the 100s. I dont know it now, though I know enough people share it.

[teacher]

I targeted a possible nightkill.
Thor.

Damn it. When I was playing out who you targeted and what it would mean, this was the one position I did not want. Because I disagree with your interpretation. I think this is more NAI than town.

Let me Scum!case (even though he is in my fourth slot for a reason.)

• Basically the entire board had said he was impossible to read, but they like him (basically PoEt-town rather than actual town). As a result, Mafia with one heavy suspect would be more likely to act through him rather than the suspect, so that logic trackers/JK fail.
  
• He was on the James wagon, where I believe one scum is. (I get the Nauci-Meji case, but it just doesnt strike me as artificial distancing for whatever reason.
  
• In fact, I think he blew up the James wagon in a way that is SLIGHTLY different from his general playstyle. This is a meta- rather than an line-by-line analysis, but I think Thor repeated himself and was more dismissive AT MORE LENGTH of James than he was with other players. Compare his reaction to James's FoS to Elephant's FoS.

Now, let me acknowledge the obvious Town!case: Scum dont want experienced hunter and Thor is a very unlikely mislynch given usefulness of even Scum!IC for answering questions like yesterdays (as shown by the lack of activity).

[teacher]

By the way, elephant -- baaaa. IF you want me to case my preferred list, I can.

[teacher]

For what is happening in this game right now.

Im engaging this, purely from an academic standpoint, to better appreciate the logic of your approach. It is different than mine (421), but I wasnt wedded to my own.

Scum also know whether there is a Doctor or a Tracker or no other PR - which means now scum has a lot more information than town does (again, showing it was not a good idea to claim if NK is town)

I absolutely agree with this. I wish NK hadnt claimed. I tried to stress that my theory was me reacting to what is an unexpected N1 result with offthecuff attempts at gamesolving. But...... Scum now has information that town can get (by outing other PR/no PR). Isnt it beneficial for town to at least try to bring that to equilibrium?

Let me explain. AT this point, with a day's reflection I think DR (if A2) should absolutely not out, ever. Wait to see if NK is countered, or if NK is persuasively cased. (I dont like the quick claim; I dont like the pressuring from NK-Oxy on responding, and I dont like the logic behind a Thor N1 jail, BUT I DONT THINK THAT IS A PERSUASIVE CASE). If he is not countered , weigh whether or not saving NK prevents scum kill or wastes a save on a maf and decide for yourself. In other words, I am not positive about this:

[DR] should protect NK

Remember, again, Scum know if theres a doctor. They also know if NK is lying (they know if it is Scum!NK, or if Scum!thor was the killer, or if Town!Thor was the target). If they know theres a doctor, they may decide not to target NK. But the doctor's chances of a successful save off of NK are also low. Bottom line - I dont think its as lock of a case to save NK as Thor suggest, but I also dont think it should be a subject of discussion. Doctor should decide for himself, weighing these variables, without providing indication to the board so as not to tell scum.

But why not have Tracker (if B2) out after the waiting period? It negates the extra power of the scumrolecop. (who knows, scum may even already know this identity). It provides a pretty darn town (but not lock, because C2) position to the board and slightly more towns NK's claim as being a consistent setup. And it makes the mafia have to choose a lynch between two power roles, so known!likelytown in D3 as well? These are genuine questions. Im not sure its better. Im providing the reasons it may be. I havent even weighed it myself.

[Thor665]

I thought it best to see what was going to come out claims wise, first.

What other claims do you want exactly?

I like your fos on meji more than I like your fos on teacher. Why did you decide to vote teacher and not Meji?

Odds - I think there is probably one scum on the wagon and one scum off - I can clear myself and functionally clear NK on the wagon, so my odds are higher there unless I'm wrong about NK.

Thor, why do you think it is likely, given how the lynch happened, that there is scum on the wagon at the final votecount?

Because in this game, any random group of five (six if you count James, which I do) is highly likely to contain at least one scum.
Why do you think there is less likely to be scum there?

I'm not sure that Thor is saying that as a certainty.

I am not, I am stating it as a high likelihood.

VOTE: Nauci, Meji, Thor, Flicker.

When did I become a top scumspect for you exactly?

Let's dance with the lawyer.

Case me bro. I know what the case was in the 100s. I dont know it now, though I know enough people share it.

What part of my presented case is confusing to you exactly?
Otherwise all I'm going to do to answer is link to it.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10136736

[Thor665]

Scum also know whether there is a Doctor or a Tracker or no other PR - which means now scum has a lot more information than town does (again, showing it was not a good idea to claim if NK is town)

I absolutely agree with this. I wish NK hadnt claimed. I tried to stress that my theory was me reacting to what is an unexpected N1 result with offthecuff attempts at gamesolving. But...... Scum now has information that town can get (by outing other PR/no PR). Isnt it beneficial for town to at least try to bring that to equilibrium?

I agree that your efforts helped convince people to do non beneficial town play by even discussing claiming when there was no actual benefit to it.

Let me explain. AT this point, with a day's reflection I think DR (if A2) should absolutely not out, ever. Wait to see if NK is countered, or if NK is persuasively cased. (I dont like the quick claim; I dont like the pressuring from NK-Oxy on responding, and I dont like the logic behind a Thor N1 jail, BUT I DONT THINK THAT IS A PERSUASIVE CASE). If he is not countered , weigh whether or not saving NK prevents scum kill or wastes a save on a maf and decide for yourself.

This is a lot of words that I think equates to "a JKer, if one exists other than NK, should counter claim."
I indicated I agreed with this, though also recall saying it should not happen for a few game days.
So as far as that goes - yeah, sure, not sure why you're acting like it's a counterpoint?

In other words, I am not positive about this:

[DR] should protect NK

Remember, again, Scum know if theres a doctor. They also know if NK is lying (they know if it is Scum!NK, or if Scum!thor was the killer, or if Town!Thor was the target). If they know theres a doctor, they may decide not to target NK. But the doctor's chances of a successful save off of NK are also low. Bottom line - I dont think its as lock of a case to save NK as Thor suggest, but I also dont think it should be a subject of discussion. Doctor should decide for himself, weighing these variables, without providing indication to the board so as not to tell scum.

You don't think it should be a discussion but are taking pains to discuss it.
Okay...?

But why not have Tracker (if B2) out after the waiting period? It negates the extra power of the scumrolecop. (who knows, scum may even already know this identity). It provides a pretty darn town (but not lock, because C2) position to the board and slightly more towns NK's claim as being a consistent setup. And it makes the mafia have to choose a lynch between two power roles, so known!likelytown in D3 as well? These are genuine questions. Im not sure its better. Im providing the reasons it may be. I havent even weighed it myself.

It does not negate the rolecop in any way - the point of the rolecop for scum at this stage is to find the Tracker. If scum already know who the Tracker is then it doesn't matter to town - but if scum don't then scum have to keep hunting for a Tracker.
I will agree it can provide a lock town - what benefit is there in doing that now as opposed to if we run the Tracker up to L-1 and force a claim?
I see no benefit.
I see as a con the loss of wagon info and votes.
What benefit do you see? You're not listing any besides 'scum have to choose which PR to kill' which...isn't a benefit.

[teacher]

When did I become a top scumspect for you exactly?

You're not, at all. You went from 4 to 3 because NK removed himself. You're PoE potential scum. I cannot read you remotely. My case is (1)agreement that there's scum on the wagon, (2) believing elephant and Oxy are less likely, (3) thinking NK is still 50/50 but unlynchable, (4) knowing Im town, and (6) my gut meta on the you-james interactions, and (5) the no-night kill (null). I would much rather lynch in Nauci, Meji, but would be willing to hammer you if it is a consensus lynch (which I highly doubt it ever will be). BTW, in case youre implying its OMGUS, I said this in twilight before you turned to me. 352.

my presented case

So its a VCA with agreement on points 1-3 above. Fair. Cant dispute that. Do I at least get points for "Case me bro" -- made me want a taser.

[Oxy]

In post 445, Oxy wrote:
I thought it best to see what was going to come out claims wise, first.

What other claims do you want exactly?

I want any counterclaims or lack thereof, but I'm probably going to have to wait a while for those, so thanks for that.
In lieu of this, I'd like some input from Irrelephant, and to hear from my scum reads.

Are you looking for a quick lynch? My reads are as clear in my posts as they would be in vote form. Why do you want me, more than anyone else, to vote right now?

[teacher]

I agree that your efforts helped convince people to do non beneficial town play by even discussing claiming when there was no actual benefit to it.

Again, I cant dispute that NK played this wrong. But I dont think I could have been more clear that people shouldnt do it until the theory was validated. So convince? TBH, as you can tell from my posting levels, Im a bit addicted right now. Nobody was posting, and I thought I had a gamesolve. Throwing scum!shade at me for another player's actions contrary to my explicit instructions (including a warning that my post could accomplish scum goals if wrong) seems beneath you, though understandable if you want me lynched.

This is a lot of words that I think equates to "a JKer, if one exists other than NK, should counter claim."

No. It was me saying I was wrong in 421, and doctor should never ever claim. We do agree. I was trying to show a new agreement, as a transition to a disagreement.

You don't think it should be a discussion but are taking pains to discuss it.
Okay...?

Im listing the variables I would consider if I am doctor. If anyone thinks there are other variables, I think they should raise them, so Doctor can make most informed decision on their own. My point is that I dont think WEIGHING them, offering suggested ACTIONS is helpful, as it guides scum. Essentially the same thing I was doing in twilight yesterday -- obtain the wisdom of the commons for the benefit of PRs.

I see no benefit [to tracker claim].

I agree. In case you cant tell, Im a think aloud person when in groups. I really believe in communal wisdom - that 4 people will always make a better decision than 1. Maybe I could have come to the same conclusions myself, maybe not. I had not thought of the wagon info effect, and am not sure I would have for a bit - (I also require separation to have these 2d order thoughts, something Im not giving myself due to the addiction, but the weekend v/la should help.)

[Irrelephant11]

Okay, based on the IC post, claiming/not claiming should wait a few RL days. That makes sense. We have no need to rush, and rushing has already outed a lot of information that might be more helpful to scum than town.

By the way, elephant -- baaaa. IF you want me to case my preferred list, I can.

I mean, yeah, make cases on scummy players. I'm not sure why I have to tell you to?

In terms of who I'm voting for, I'm focsuing on Meji/Nauci/Flicker, with other bad feelings between you and Thor that are currently slightly lower priority.

I want more from meji, including an answer to my question about Nauci, to get more information about both of them.
Acutally, VOTE: Meji Fan. If this is the only way to get you to talk, so be it.

Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between 236 and 371. Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about 250 compared to 333? Or 259, where Teacher throws out sheeping me? 271? And at least three other posts of your choice.

[Irrelephant11]

Flicker, what do you think about the JB voters? Was there scum refusing to see what you saw when you unvoted? Or did scum completely let town lynch itself?

busier today than most weekdays, but I'll try to pop back in again later.

[teacher]

VOTE: Meji. Cases coming.

[Oxy]

Yo, teacher - I think you're town. Thor is not going to be an easy 1v1. Fmpov, your best course of action would be to scum hunt.

Correct save for doctor is to save someone. It sounds like a joke, but it's not. It's correct from a beyesian perspective to save the JK claim some percentage of the time and to save outside the JK claim some percentage of the time.

@game: Lamist is more town-indicative than scum-indicative for new players. The claiming discussion may or may not have been anti-town, but it's unrealistic to argue that it comes from scum more often than from town.

[teacher]

@Oxy - To be honest, anything that gets Thor providing more analysis of more slots works for me. I tried yesterday and got the cold shoulder (not wanting to slow a wagon? I dont know). For me, failure to provide board reads today will be pretty scum indicative. And if a 1v1 leads to that.....

[Oxy]

I think he was pretty clear just now on what his reads are...

[Thor665]

You're not, at all. You went from 4 to 3 because NK removed himself. You're PoE potential scum. I cannot read you remotely. My case is (1)agreement that there's scum on the wagon, (2) believing elephant and Oxy are less likely, (3) thinking NK is still 50/50 but unlynchable, (4) knowing Im town, and (6) my gut meta on the you-james interactions, and (5) the no-night kill (null). I would much rather lynch in Nauci, Meji, but would be willing to hammer you if it is a consensus lynch (which I highly doubt it ever will be). BTW, in case youre implying its OMGUS, I said this in twilight before you turned to me. 352.

I'm left wondering if you believe all of this why you're *not* voting me?
How likely do you see two scum off the wagon being?

Do I at least get points for "Case me bro" -- made me want a taser.

That's like posting up Star Wars kid and asking for points. Still cute - not timeless.

Are you looking for a quick lynch? My reads are as clear in my posts as they would be in vote form. Why do you want me, more than anyone else, to vote right now?

I like to see people who extrovert clear reads to back them up with clear actions.
I'm always curious when words and actions don't appear to align.

@game: Lamist is more town-indicative than scum-indicative for new players. The claiming discussion may or may not have been anti-town, but it's unrealistic to argue that it comes from scum more often than from town.

Who is arguing this?

[Not Known 15]

Correct save for doctor is to save someone. It sounds like a joke, but it's not. It's correct from a beyesian perspective to save the JK claim some percentage of the time and to save outside the JK claim some percentage of the time.

If we have a doctor and we lynch the roleblocker they should be on me with 100% probability

[Oxy]

@game: Lamist is more town-indicative than scum-indicative for new players. The claiming discussion may or may not have been anti-town, but it's unrealistic to argue that it comes from scum more often than from town.

Who is arguing this?

I'm arguing the first point
And my second point is responding to the following quote. And yes, I know you haven't called it scum-indicative. I'm saying I don't think it's scum indicative, and I'm doing so for the benefit of anyone inclined to think it is.

I agree that your efforts helped convince people to do non beneficial town play by even discussing claiming when there was no actual benefit to it.

p.edit
Actually, even then the correct play would be to save someone outside the JK claim some percentage of the time. This would be a small percentage, however.

[teacher]

My Nauci Case

• Early game fluffing. BUT had played with TGP before 8 and ignored my TGP meta question 139 made before he was VLA. Both are weak grounds, as she had discussed TGP's meta before my question. I was more seeking an inconsistency.
  
• But there is in fact an inconsistency. Nauci's first discussion of TGP says that she remembers nothing. 26. But then she tries to build a scum case from her previous game. 65. Inconsistency all the more suspicious because James says this is TGP's common Town!meta. 143 THIS is my biggest issue, along with
  
• the vanity wagon on me both early when Thor and JB's responses indicated I would not be gaining traction, and later, when
  
• Providing intent to L-1 but doesnt, while encouraging early L-1s -- i.e. a contradictory push to the JB wagon while staying off it (to avoid suspicion?) 227
  
• What I view as a slightly misreppy attempt to add onto the valid early scumcase on me (91)
  
• Possible contradiction between 65 ("activity+content based") and encouragement of 1v1s compared to 96 "too tryhard" complaining about activity.
  
• Dont know what to make of complete disappearance before break. Real life happens, and Im glad youre through withdrawal and wish you the best on the continued recovery generally. But Im quite surprised that housebound Nauci would not turn to this at somepoint for relief. This is null, I debated not listing, but it is a question in my mind if I am honest.

Thats the quick and dirty from an ISO.

[Flicker]

Assuming NK15 is telling the truth for now, of the three options available to explain the no night kill, I feel like the most likely to least likely scenario is:

1. Scum didn't get the night kill in on time.
2. Thor is scum and was prevented from killing his target.
3. Thor was scum's night kill target.

Now, in backwards order, my reasons:

3. Given how ambivalent/wary most people were about Thor D1, I feel like any half-decent scum would leave him in to sow doubt rather than target him.
2. If Thor is scum, and his partner is less suspected by town, I feel like his partner would have submitted the night kill. (There's a possibility that his partner is more suspected than he is, but then that would be Meji or teacher, and there's a possibility that if one of them also has a role, they split their night actions.)
1. If scum failed to get the night kill in, that would seem to point to the two less-active players at the time, Nauci and Meji.

VOTE: Meji Fan, both the only player who overlaps in both my suspect pools and who I suspect the most. As much as I don't like teacher's play, I'm more inclined to think it's bad!town than scum (bolstered in part by James also being bad!town to some extent - sorry, James). I still feel like Nauci's town, but, looking through her meta, she has some scum games under her belt here, so she could be good at faking town.

PEdit: I guess I'd add "4. Scum chose not to night kill" to my list. I just don't see an advantage of that outweighing the power of the night kill.

PEdit2: Irrelephant - Based on my current reads, yeah, I think it's very possible that scum sat back and watched town mislynch. I don't think I made my reasons for unvoting clear enough that scum had anything to look past, but of the responses afterward, NK15's seemed the most like it could be scum (theory-based stuff being easier to fake). But now he's claimed, so...

(Also, FTR, I thought I was gonna be the first vote on Meji, not the third. I think I started drafting this post after post #452, and y'all haven't let up since.)

[Thor665]

And my second point is responding to the following quote. And yes, I know you haven't called it scum-indicative. I'm saying I don't think it's scum indicative, and I'm doing so for the benefit of anyone inclined to think it is.

I see my quote, I don't see me calling him scummy for that, I do see me calling him anti-town. I also see me calling him scummy for other reasons.
Feels very angular as a defense.

Actually, even then the correct play would be to save someone outside the JK claim some percentage of the time. This would be a small percentage, however.

Nah, 100% jailkeeper at that stage, because once scum make a non-JKer kill the JKer is a cop result.
Then, after Doc death, JKer openly declares his target, and until JKer death you get another cop result every night.

[Flicker]

But there is in fact an inconsistency. Nauci's first discussion of TGP says that she remembers nothing. 26. But then she tries to build a scum case from her previous game. 65. Inconsistency all the more suspicious because James says this is TGP's common Town!meta. 143 THIS is my biggest issue[...]

Between 26 and 65, Nauci could have

easily

gone back and skimmed that game, especially with TGP's reminder in post #48. Of all the things on your list, this seems like a bad one to latch onto.

[Not Known 15]

Penultimate Votecount Day 1(a bit more than 3 days left)

James Brafin

(4)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 , Not Known 15 , Flicker , L-1
teacher (1)Nauci ,<---absent
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,
Meji Fan (2)teacher , Oxy ,<---- counter wagon to town

Not Known 15

(1)James Brafin ,

Final Votecount Day 1(less than 3 days left):

James Brafin

(5)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 ,

Not Known 15

, teacher , Oxy , L-0
teacher (1)Nauci ,<---absent
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,<---lone vote, not absent, no vote change, against JB lynch but not offering alternatives.

Scum

?

Not Known 15

(1)

James Brafin

,
Not Voting (1)Flicker ,<------Not voting this close to deadline, and not voting Meji; unvoted Brafin because they "didn't scumread them anymore" and didnt vote counterwagon that was at L-3(Meji) at that time. But at that time the lynch seemed inevitable without a push on a major wagon. Maybe hiding scum that wanted to evade VCA?.

Scum

?

Meji is at L-2 currently.

With my hard pushing as town vs town(Brafin) Mafia might not have needed to vote on Brafin.
And with Meji being the last counterwagon it would be very interesting to see what they were.

[Oxy]

And my second point is responding to the following quote. And yes, I know you haven't called it scum-indicative. I'm saying I don't think it's scum indicative, and I'm doing so for the benefit of anyone inclined to think it is.

I see my quote, I don't see me calling him scummy for that, I do see me calling him anti-town. I also see me calling him scummy for other reasons.
Feels very angular as a defense.

Actually, even then the correct play would be to save someone outside the JK claim some percentage of the time. This would be a small percentage, however.

Nah, 100% jailkeeper at that stage, because once scum make a non-JKer kill the JKer is a cop result.
Then, after Doc death, JKer openly declares his target, and until JKer death you get another cop result every night.

1) Yeah, I know you didn't explicitly call it scummy. I even mentioned that in the quote?

2)This is a waste of time, but no. If doc is known to save JK 100% of time, then scum hits outside of JK 100% of time, and doc save does nothing 100% of the time.. Thus, doc should save outside of JK some amount of the time in order to induce scum to attempt to NK some amount of the time, allowing doc save to actually do something some amount of the time. Obviously, this percentage needs to be low so the benefits of correct saves aren't outdone by the times the JK is successfully night killed.

[teacher]

I have real life for several hours, now, so full responses and Meji case will be delayed. But:

@Thor: I think 1 on wagon likely. If I havent made it clear, I still sus NK more than you even with claim. I just cant vote him or include him in a proffered list. And with the biggest suspect gone, Oxy and Elephant still reduce the amount of the minority left for you. My biggest issue with you is that I feel like you are a good reader but arent explaining outside of lynch desires. Towncasing people helps town too.

@Flicker: I find late submitted kill implausible with two team members. I also find dividing actions unlikely - why not have PR!mar (if any) conduct both actions to lower track odds.

@Oxy: I agree thor has provides reads. He hasnt provided reasoning on the towns. Again, wisdom of commons. Plus more detail = more info = a record to weigh against in future days.

@Flicker: If nauci did go back to game (effort), I see no reason why she would not also read at least one town!NGP game for comparison and realize NAI per James. I need to meta TGP myself to determine weight.

Happy hunting people.