Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Thor665]

he started out saying that his math made it like 6 times more likely that you are scum.

I came at it from like 3 different directions, finally determining that there was a 14% chance of NK picking the scum doing the night kill, and 11% chance of NK choosing the night kill target.

That works out to roughly 20% more likely that he picks scum. I took his analysis from 600% to 20%, a reduction of over 96%.

Yes...and so you're still agreeing that the silly math suggests I'm more likely scum, so...?

And to your BoP - I'm not saying you're "so good"

But I do think it's fair to ask you to have better than level 1 reads

And I'm not saying you're "so bad" as scum - I don't know your statistics, but I imagine level 1 analysis is pretty good in newbie games.

So what are you saying?
because now it sounds like you're saying this isn't a reason to scumread me (which i agree with) but before it felt like you were saying the opposite. Did you change your mind? Am I reading you wrong in one of your replies?

I'll take continued avoidance of my earlier questions as intentional ducking due to inability to answer them.
That makes my vote on you feel more just.
Let me know if you want to adjust that take.

[Oxy]

I'm choosing not to answer questions for two reasons:

1) You are clearly a skilled debater in this context, and I imagine this sort of back and forth is why you're considered difficult to lynch. It muddles up the core issues for everyone reading.
2) You're a scum read, so I'm not actually trying to convince you that you are scum. None of this is actually for you, and your vote on me is irrelevant because I can never convince you to self vote.

---

And yes, you read my second argument wrong. You attacked BoP by taking it to the extremes -"If I'm sooo good at town, why am I sooo bad at scum."
That's a straw man argument coming from you. I'm saying neither that you are "so good" as town, or "so bad" as scum. I'm saying I can expect you to be better than this as town, and that it wouldn't be unreasonable for you to use lazy reasoning in a newbie game because level 1 analysis could be an effective way to coast through a game as scum, especially since you are a skilled debater.

---

And yes, I am still agreeing that you are more likely scum based on random selection, which is not a good model.

The point is this: Teacher came into this thread saying that you were mathematically nearly certain to be scum. I cut that from a near mathematical certainty to "he's 20% more likely to be scum than town based on random selection for the NK and the JK."
From your pov, scum!oxy has no reason to engage with the math at all, and every reason to not undercut it. Frankly, I would expect this to be obvious to someone with far less experience.

[Irrelephant11]

Wow Thor ISO remains incredibly hard to read. There's a lot of questions there, and he comes across as very casual D1. Mayyybe those things mean scum, since he never pushed hard for any particular lynch? Also last game day his second favorite lynch seemed to be Meji and today he dropped that. I'm curious why, Thor, since your analysis of votes was one scum on the wagon and one scum off? Why focus so heavy on the three not-NK15 players on the wagon instead of the three players off the wagon?

Can you tell me why, from your perspective, your top scumread telling the truth is more likely than one of your townreads being scum?

What was his scum advantage to claim at that stage?
If this was Day 3 I'd agree with you, but Day 2 is a lot riskier for him if he's scum.
I also don't see my play being a massive danger to him since he already had a big wagon going on Meji (that he was driving) so unless the argument is he's Meji's partner and really didn't expect his bus to work really well and had to hard abort via a fakeclaim - I don't see a clear scum logic for his play.
With lack of scum logic - I presume town claim, thus guardedly confirmed town.

What do you see as the scum logic I should follow for him?

I mean, some possibilities include saving Meji as tomorrow's easy mislynch, saving Meji his scum partner that he wasn't sure I'd vote (but had to follow me because he said he would) (note: this is the one you listed, so you

can

see scum logic there), trying this move that he wanted to save till D3 on D2 so it doesn't look suspicious on D3...
Oh, or maybe he just wanted to claim a power role to avoid the lynch forever?

Overall, I am mostly confused on why you're voting Oxy when Teacher cannot prove he is telling the truth, has over-exaggerated the numbers to push a town lynch (from your POV), up until this claim (that came from your scumeread) you were townreading Oxy, and there's at least one player

off

the JB wagon who you've said you find very suspicious.

idk who I find scummy out of Teacher/Thor, if either, but Thor's trust of Teacher is odd.

[Irrelephant11]

Actually, scratch that, until Thor addresses these questions I do find him somewhat scummy.

[Not Known 15]

I want to see Meji being lynched now more than ever. Their behaviour Day 1 was really sketchy.
They were the last counterwagon to James Brafin. They refused to lead or push for any other wagon in the light of a supposed town read, James, being lynched. They signed disapproval but nothing more. Why would town be so passive when they see a mislynch incoming? They likely are not town. It would help a lot if we could flip them.

[Not Known 15]

Also last game day his second favorite lynch seemed to be Meji and today he dropped that. I'm curious why, Thor, since your analysis of votes was one scum on the wagon and one scum off?

I do want this to be answered though.

[teacher]

Everything is really interesting reading. I am literally swamped today. And will be v/la tomorrow during the day. I promise you all I will post here tomorrow night my actual analysis.

For now, I want to stick in a quick apology for my D2, because it has made this one of the odder mafia situations I have seen. I pulled an allnighter Tuesday and was brainfried Wed/Thur. That is why my gamesolving was like swiss cheese. It could have been hilarious, but I also feel bad. I hope you all are having fun, but if you feel like the table is sideways: Its on me, and I apologize. In other words, while Im still convinced Thor is scum, I also think hes right that I played terrible today so........sorry.

That said, one thing to Oxy, I think you took my analysis from 600% to 300%, not 20%. Im going to think about it after I sleep tonight, because even I have had enough with brainfried me. But the problem is that your 20% assumes the identify mafia NK as part of its calculation, rather than factoring those odds in. In statistics terms, it treats NK's save as a subsequent, dependent event rather than an contemporaneous, independent event.

[Thor665]

I'm choosing not to answer questions for two reasons:

1) You are clearly a skilled debater in this context, and I imagine this sort of back and forth is why you're considered difficult to lynch. It muddles up the core issues for everyone reading.
2) You're a scum read, so I'm not actually trying to convince you that you are scum. None of this is actually for you, and your vote on me is irrelevant because I can never convince you to self vote.

1. What core issues am I muddying exactly - I'm being very direct in facing your core issues. If they are muddy after a simple question (and they are) then they are muddy to begin with, yeah?
Why don't you state up a nice - clean - simple - direct case? I'd love to see that, and suggest you haven't yet.

2. I am debating you to crush your case and to continue scumhunting you in case I'm wrong. Theoretically you could do the same to me - I agree you have come to a decision and are now tring to do everything to dig in your heels ant not analyze, but I would not agree that is good play. Why do you think it is?

And yes, you read my second argument wrong. You attacked BoP by taking it to the extremes -"If I'm sooo good at town, why am I sooo bad at scum."
That's a straw man argument coming from you. I'm saying neither that you are "so good" as town, or "so bad" as scum. I'm saying

I can expect you to be better than this as town

, and that it wouldn't be unreasonable for you to use lazy reasoning in a newbie game because level 1 analysis could be an effective way to coast through a game as scum, especially since you are a skilled debater.

It's funny, because you say I'm misrepping, yet you then go back to my initial call.
You are arguing that I'm scum because I'm better.
If I'm better - why am I not better scum?

From your pov, scum!oxy has no reason to engage with the math at all, and every reason to not undercut it. Frankly, I would expect this to be obvious to someone with far less experience.

Scum you has no reason to engage with math and help town still decide I'm scum, albeit slightly less assured scum?
Why would scum you *not* do that?
What are you sacrificing to do that?
Because it looks like you're sacrificing nothing - and if you're sacrificing nothing why should I town read it?

[Nauci]

Quick comment is that I find it super weird how there has been very little talk about me. Every moment I was too ill to properly post I was sure that I'd come back to a thread full of people FOSing me because I usually FOS lurkers super hard. Maybe I missed it, but I'm pretty shocked to find that (outside of meji's inexplicable super tunneling) only teacher has cased me and irrelephant questioned me. I'm not sure what this means alignment wise yet, though.

I fail to follow - your argument is that you're town who is easy to mislynch so it's strange that scum aren't trying to mislynch you.
That's functionally an argument that you're scum - explain?

No I said exactly what I meant.

It's weird for people to not have pressed me for lurking from a scumhunting perspective. Obviously no one knows for sure if I'm town, so it's weird that more people didn't pressure me about being away. Analyizing whether or not people are FOSing me is important data that can be done w/o saying I'm casing myself, because my alignment and the perception of my alignment are separate.

[Oxy]

@thorr the simple act of a continued back and forth wall fest mucks up the game, IMO. I don't think people like reading them, and I think they tune out. Ya, we get it, you are good with the english language. I'm not engaging with it any more. I think you're scum.

[Thor665]

Also last game day his second favorite lynch seemed to be Meji and today he dropped that. I'm curious why, Thor, since your analysis of votes was one scum on the wagon and one scum off? Why focus so heavy on the three not-NK15 players on the wagon instead of the three players off the wagon?

Because game statistics suggest a high prevalence for scum on the wagon to be 1 or more.
It is more likely that 2 scum are on the wagon then both scum are off.
Therefore it is more likely that scum are on the wagon in some array, and if I have slots I can rule out...
Make sense?

I mean, some possibilities include saving Meji as tomorrow's easy mislynch, saving Meji his scum partner that he wasn't sure I'd vote (but had to follow me because he said he would) (note: this is the one you listed, so you

can

see scum logic there), trying this move that he wanted to save till D3 on D2 so it doesn't look suspicious on D3...
Oh, or maybe he just wanted to claim a power role to avoid the lynch forever?

Most of those are really bad plays and thin grasps at straws - you see that, right? Or would you like me to explain how unlikely they are specifically?

Overall, I am mostly confused on why you're voting Oxy when Teacher cannot prove he is telling the truth, has over-exaggerated the numbers to push a town lynch (from your POV), up until this claim (that came from your scumeread) you were townreading Oxy, and there's at least one player

off

the JB wagon who you've said you find very suspicious.

idk who I find scummy out of Teacher/Thor, if either, but Thor's trust of Teacher is odd.

As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.
He was in no danger.
He was reversing his push.

Literally the only issue I have with teacher currently is terrible logic (which he hasn't been around to pursue) and I'll be curious to understand why he had all this info on me during the period where he knew I was jailed up until the point he voted me (but he hasn't been around to engage)

In the mean time presuming him as scum and pressing Oxy seems brilliant to me.
Do you see any reason to hard town read Oxy?
Do you think Oxy's play with me has looked like town play?

[Thor665]

It's weird for people to not have pressed me for lurking from a scumhunting perspective. Obviously no one knows for sure if I'm town, so it's weird that more people didn't pressure me about being away. Analyizing whether or not people are FOSing me is important data that can be done w/o saying I'm casing myself, because my alignment and the perception of my alignment are separate.

Still looks like an argument that you're scum to me.

@thorr the simple act of a continued back and forth wall fest mucks up the game, IMO. I don't think people like reading them, and I think they tune out. Ya, we get it, you are good with the english language. I'm not engaging with it any more. I think you're scum.

I agree you're not trying to assess me and are ducking things?

[Not Known 15]

As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.

Actually... no. The claim is not Town-alignment indicative in itself. If I am the only power role then one of the scum can easily claim tracker without fear. You are the IC, why don't you know this stuff?

[Irrelephant11]

Because game statistics suggest a high prevalence for scum on the wagon to be 1 or more.
It is more likely that 2 scum are on the wagon then both scum are off.
Therefore it is more likely that scum are on the wagon in some array, and if I have slots I can rule out...
Make sense?

Yes. Do you currently think there are two scum on the wagon?

Most of those are really bad plays and thin grasps at straws - you see that, right? Or would you like me to explain how unlikely they are specifically?

Why isn't it likely that Teacher made a bad play? He himself admits he's played poorly today.

As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.
He was in no danger.
He was reversing his push.

Literally the only issue I have with teacher currently is terrible logic (which he hasn't been around to pursue) and I'll be curious to understand why he had all this info on me during the period where he knew I was jailed up until the point he voted me (but he hasn't been around to engage)

In the mean time presuming him as scum and pressing Oxy seems brilliant to me.
Do you see any reason to hard town read Oxy?
Do you think Oxy's play with me has looked like town play?

To the last sentence: yes
To the second to last: unsure
To the third to last: Does this mean you

do

think Teacher is scum, and you're just pressing Oxy in the meantime?

[Thor665]

@NK - Oh, scum can make the fake claim with 100% safety.
But now ask yourself why they'd do it on Day 2?
They would have to be living in utter terror of me to try to kill me at night *and* try a fakeclaim gambit to get me lynched.
They had the Meji lynch, so, again, unless that's a scumbuddy, then teacher is less likely scum.
I don't see teacher/Meji as overly likely - do you?

[Thor665]

Yes. Do you currently think there are two scum on the wagon?

I lean no.
But I'd wager that as more likely than two scum off.

Why isn't it likely that Teacher made a bad play? He himself admits he's played poorly today.

If he's scum he's been making great and very clever plays.
He's either clever and scum or derpy and town. I'm not buying derpy and scum - do you see a reason I should?

To the last sentence: yes
To the second to last: unsure
To the third to last: Does this mean you

do

think Teacher is scum, and you're just pressing Oxy in the meantime?

1. Why?
2. (just included to make numbering clear)
3. It means I do not consider teacher confirmed town - something you seem to think I'm saying, but I never have, and I'm tryingto clarify that. What I've said about him is I don't see much value in lynching him today.

[Irrelephant11]

If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?

derpy and scum was my D1 read on Teacher, but I guess if you don't see it you don't see it

I mean in 525 you said you're "willing to believe Teacher's claim." That means that, whether you consider him confrmed or not, you consider him town. That's a different level than saying you "don't see much value in lynching him today."


Re:Oxy, I am experiencing now what he was trying to avoid - lots of talk coming from you that seems to cloud things up rather than make them clear. You seem to be asking questions for questions' sake, rather than for their answers.

[Irrelephant11]

They would have to be living in utter terror of me to try to kill me at night *and* try a fakeclaim gambit to get me lynched

I mean, I'll also note that you being jailed means you're either target or scum. If it's not scum, then you're semi-confirmed town. If you're town, scum has incentive now to want you dead.

[teacher]

One quick beg by the way. Its implicit in the host of posts so far, but can everybody simply confirm no other PRs? This will conclusively lock NK at the very least.

[teacher]

And for those questioning my claim -- I appreciate the implied brilliance (because brilliant scum might try some of these moves today) -- but I assure you that it was/is derpiness and I feel like sh** about it.

I dont have time to link but look through my posts yesterday and you should see breadcrumbing exactly like what I described with james. I said my vote hurt TOWN in the 80s because PR. I note that nauci correctly diagnosed my nervousness about lynched, but misdiagnosed the cause in the 110s - claiming newbPR. I tried to get people to commit to a block around a slot sussing me because I knew I couldnt be lynched, and would have built a block for town. Finally, I tried to get broad views during twilight to decide what to do with my action.

No, Im not a lock. But try to explain those statements - particularly building a block - as scum. The only way to do it is to conclude that I am a team with elephant. Now I will ask you how likely that is. compared to your reads on other players.

I have to run. One thing I will say is that if we get an affirmative no counterclaim to NK is I will lay out my case and then sheep him to whomever he picks.

[Irrelephant11]

Flicker, a question:

(Flicker quote sabout what happened last night:)

Spoiler:

Assuming NK15 is telling the truth for now, of the three options available to explain the no night kill, I feel like the most likely to least likely scenario is:

1. Scum didn't get the night kill in on time.
2. Thor is scum and was prevented from killing his target.
3. Thor was scum's night kill target.

Now, in backwards order, my reasons:

3. Given how ambivalent/wary most people were about Thor D1, I feel like any half-decent scum would leave him in to sow doubt rather than target him.
2. If Thor is scum, and his partner is less suspected by town, I feel like his partner would have submitted the night kill. (There's a possibility that his partner is more suspected than he is, but then that would be Meji or teacher, and there's a possibility that if one of them also has a role, they split their night actions.)
1. If scum failed to get the night kill in, that would seem to point to the two less-active players at the time, Nauci and Meji.

@Flicker: I find late submitted kill implausible with two team members. I also find dividing actions unlikely - why not have PR!mar (if any) conduct both actions to lower track odds.

I know it's implausible, I just think it's

less

implausible than the other scenarios I listed. It's a PoE read more than a certainty thing.

Thor is IC, and so makes sense as a nightkill. Teacher brought forward information that Thor makes sense as scum. The only two "lurkers" have been Meji Fan and Nauci, and Meji Fan has clearly been around (just not posting enough). Is this still the order of likely scenarios in your mind?

[teacher]

Im on mobile but I will through one last out there: Im thinking that Meji might still make the most sense to kill, while Thor gets jailed again. Im not at all sure and not going to try to decide before I write it ALL up, because writing is where I see errors in thinking, and I want to think with a clear head. Have a good start to yalls weekends. PLEASE lock NK so we can make townblock.

[teacher]

NK why was Thor the town night save? why not elephant? Just curious.

[Irrelephant11]

I'm about to head out for the weekend, and will likely only get my usual single post in. In the meantime I agree that Meji is still priority 1, but think more pressure needs to go on Thor, Flicker, and Nauci.

@Nauci

Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between 236 and 371. Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about 250 compared to 333? Or 259, where Teacher throws out sheeping me? 271? And at least three other posts of your choice.

[Flicker]

Is this still the order of likely scenarios in your mind?

No, I'd probably move "failure to submit night kill" to 4 now, and switch the original 2 and 3 to 1 and 2 (with the new 3 being the old 4).

*

The more I think about it, Oxy's right that assuming failure to submit the night kill is drastically underestimating scum, while assuming scum wouldn't target Thor for the night kill is maybe overestimating scum. Aside from just being the IC, there could also be something in particular in Thor's D1 posts that really scared scum.

I can still see scum!Thor, though. If we can't get Meji, I'd compromise on a Thor lynch. (I know, it's early to solidify the lynch, but I thought I'd put this out there.)

Speaking of a Meji lynch...

NK15:

I want to see Meji being lynched now more than ever. Their behaviour Day 1 was really sketchy.

Then why aren't you voting for Meji? You posted this after teacher and Oxy moved to Thor; your vote would only be to L-2.

---

*

For clarity, the revised list:

Spoiler: Revised no night kill scenario ranking

1. Thor was scum's night kill target.
2. Thor is scum and was prevented from killing his target.
-- GAP --
3. Scum chose not to night kill.
4. Scum didn't get the night kill in on time.