Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

You wake to find that Not Known 15 was killed. He was

Spoiler:

Town Jailkeeper

.

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 11:00:00). With 6 alive it's 4 to lynch!

[brassherald]

Hello, everyone, I replaced into a game here where my predecessor seems to be among the sum reads for "lurking" let me start with a simple thought game. There are three people who are being characterized as "lurkers" and two scum slots in this game, why are we scum reading people who lurk rather than reading the content of the posts that they do make and making judgments on them. I know I'm not the IC, but lurking is not actually a scum tell.

Even

arguendo

, the question becomes the difference between scum lurking and lurking because the player is in the damn hospital, like Nauci was and might still be. She said that multiple times in this game and other games on the site where she was town, like Open 719 (I think that's the number, it's Stack the Deck).

So, before I share any thoughts I might have on other slots, I want to engage this issue head on before you decide to lynch in MYLO, show me posts from Nauci that actually seem scummy, and I will address them to the best of my ability.

[teacher]

arguendo,

Lawyer.

Im sitting back a bit. I want to see some posts from Meji, you, and Flicker with actual game reads.

Once that has happened, I will share the info I learned from the night.

[teacher]

Also, 468. General fluff start D1. Disappearing end D1 could be legit, but then I suspect would feel guilty enough not to....... -- Disappear D2 after parking on town wagon.

Countervailing case is the start of D2 posts seem towny.

Basically I dont have enough to read this slot (hence lurker). Id like to read the slot by reading your reads. Which brings me to DONT DO THIS:

before I share any thoughts I might have on other slots

You can deal with my lurk-scum read by DELURKING and starting to post your thoughts.

[Oxy]

teacher - Please out your check, now.

You are claiming tracker, so you have either an inconclusive check, a check on dead, or a red check.

If you have a red check, scum already knows who the red check is on. That person is probably not going to spew prior to your check.

If you have a check on dead, you are terrible. (lol)

If you have an inconclusive check, then I want to know it now - before YOU have a chance to gather more information.

[brassherald]

teacher - Please out your check, now.

You are claiming tracker, so you have either an inconclusive check, a check on dead, or a red check.

If you have a red check, scum already knows who the red check is on. That person is probably not going to spew prior to your check.

If you have a check on dead, you are terrible. (lol)

If you have an inconclusive check, then I want to know it now - before YOU have a chance to gather more information.

I'd agree, this is something I'd also like to hear before sharing my thoughts.

[Oxy]

Welcome to the game BH; I'm a big fan of your work.

[brassherald]

Welcome to the game BH; I'm a big fan of your work.

Thank you. I like your avatar, but I don't know I can say that as a mod.

[Oxy]

;P

[Irrelephant11]

If you have a red check, scum already knows who the red check is on. That person is probably not going to spew prior to your check.

How's this? Yesterday I thought mafia were informed they were jailkept, and I was corrected. Is it the case that mafia

are

informed if they were tracked?

@brassherald, welcome. When you get a chance, I'd love to hear your thoughts on 576 followed by answering this on behalf of your slot:

Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between 236 and 371. Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about 250 compared to 333? Or 259, where Teacher throws out sheeping me? 271? And at least three other posts of your choice.

Agreed that this and other thoughts should wait for teacher.

[teacher]

I have three requests for my thoughts now. To be honest, I think posting them now helps mafia, because they know who carried out the night kill.

If I say I saw it happen, mafia knows who I tracked. They can skew their game reads to bus their partner, distance, and gain some town + read cred.
If I say I didnt see it happen, scum now have that info and can still use it to skew their reads, either soft bussing to provide distance or towning to avoid raising suspicions on a sus spot.
If I dont say at all, scum probably has to give genuine reads, since they dont know which way I come out.

All of this said, I know Im not lock tracker. If four people (requiring two townies) say they want me to out immediately, I will. Any previous people asking me to out can feel free to reconsider after reading my logic.

[Oxy]

How's this? Yesterday I thought mafia were informed they were jailkept, and I was corrected. Is it the case that mafia are informed if they were tracked?

If teacher's claim is real, then we are living in the world of Role cop + Goon vs Tracker + JK.

By the end of D2, scum would have known the identity of both roles. Therefore, they would have no reason to use their rolecop ability.

This means that there was exactly one scum performing a night action last night.

That's the only person that teacher can possibly have a red check on

Thus, scum already knows which of them can possibly be red checked right now.

(and, if they didn't know already, they do now. But they knew.)

[Oxy]

@teacher if your next post doesn't include your night action and result, I'm going to spend the rest of the game tunneling you.

They already know who you had to target for a red check, so all actions will be based around that. If you missed, it doesn't change their game plan in the slightest.

[teacher]

I cant tell if 761 is a response to 760, but if it is -- youre right that scum would know who I COULD have a check on. But (and this is the real answer to Elephant's 759, which I notice you didnt give) - they dont know whether I DO have that check (tracked person is not informed, otherwise Thor could have confirmed me).

Thus, if I dont out, I think scum has to give their killing partner a genuine read rather than a bus one.

PEDIT: Tunnel me all you want. Im waiting until at least 2 towns have asked for my actions and results. I think it does change their actions to know whether I had the check or not. Explain to me why it doesnt.

[Oxy]

It was a response to 759.

I think you holding your results gives scum!you far more actionable information than whatever the hypothetical scum team gets out of town!you's result.

So while town!you might see this order as pro-town, it's going to make it a lot harder for town to make a decision on your legitimacy.

[Flicker]

PEdit: I was gonna post my reads, but if Irrelephant agrees that teacher should out his tracking results first, then I'll wait, too.

PEdit2 @ teacher: Or, if you're scum, by not sharing your "result" immediately, you could be waiting for town to give reads so you can best fake a result that ensures a scum win...

I think your tracking result is more valuable than anything you hope to gain by withholding. After all, town is playing poorly or scum is playing well (or both), and a tracker result could help town significantly. You

might

get what you're hoping for by withholding, but if you're really the tracker I don't think you can afford to weaken your position in town's eyes by looking evasive. Please share posthaste.

[teacher]

That's four. I tried to track Flicker (I also tried to tell NK this by anagram in [post]729]/post] (Tracking . . . . For . . . .Looking . . . I .. . . Conversely . . . Knowing . . . Enough . . . .Really). But I was Jailkept -- I did not get a result at all (different response than what I got with Thor.

My guess from this info is that NK decided that if I were scum, I would be the one assigned the nightkill, so he could both prevent a kill and out a scum. Wrong, but makes sense and perhaps makes my spot at least semi-confirmed - though I know you cant trust me even on the no result.

[Irrelephant11]

hmmm

If you got no useful result, saying so will make it easier for the scum to townread each other and make this round les sclear. In this case, you should keep it to yourself at first

If you found a scum, saying so will 1v1 you and that player (better for town overall) while allowing the other scum to hide better. In this case, you should definitely tell us who we ought to kill, and waiting too long lowers the effectiveness of this option by making you more suspicious.

If you're scum with a fake result, waiting allows you to gather information and make the call that helps your wincon the most. Also in this case, your request for 4 players to ask for information is a request for everyone but your buddy to intentionally ask, which seems unlikely given meji/flicker activity levels

The only way I see waiting as being pro-town is if you got no result and you want to see scum town read each other, even though in this case you wouldn't know who either of the scum are anyway. So, in the most pro-town situation, it's next to useless.

Probably just say what happened last night?

pedit: well that's that

[teacher]

As for my reads, I am better on Meji as they have stayed off two town wagons. I dislike Nauci's end of D2 play even more than end of D1. So, Brass, get to actually casing.
VOTE: Brass

[teacher]

By the way, since I die tonight no matter what (and town loses if it doesnt hit scum), do not get to L-1 before I can post my long analysis. In other words, Intent to L-1 rather than posting it with intent to hammer, since scum can quickhammer to avoid my dying thoughts.

[brassherald]

My Nauci Case

[lEarly game fluffing. BUT had played with TGP before 8 and ignored my TGP meta question 139 made before he was VLA. Both are weak grounds, as she had discussed TGP's meta before my question. I was more seeking an inconsistency.

Let's start this. Early game fluffing doesn't mean anything, Nauci never really steps up in any of her games and starts the serious action. Then I don't know if she saw your question, sometimes people miss questions all the time, but, if you really wanted it answered you should have asked again.

But there is in fact an inconsistency. Nauci's first discussion of TGP says that she remembers nothing. 26. But then she tries to build a scum case from her previous game. 65. Inconsistency all the more suspicious because James says this is TGP's common Town!meta. 143 THIS is my biggest issue, along with

This is factually incorrect. James Brafin was saying this is a town meta where he lurks Day 1, Nauci stated that she felt TGP was trying to pocket her. She never mentions lurking as a basis for the scumread, but instead at the time said she was discouraging lurking. Her lurking was due to health issues and she probably should have replaced out earlier.

the vanity wagon on me both early when Thor and JB's responses indicated I would not be gaining traction, and later, when

I have no idea what a vanity wagon is. Not what this has to do with anything. Someone votes you so they are scum? Bad attitude.

Providing intent to L-1 but doesnt, while encouraging early L-1s -- i.e. a contradictory push to the JB wagon while staying off it (to avoid suspicion?) 227

Another factually incorrect accusation. Nauci asked for a VC because she was pretty sure but not positive it was L-2. She was not willing to hammer clearly and was not sure on the count. I mean, it seems like if she had miscounted and hammered, you wouldn't have liked that either.

What I view as a slightly misreppy attempt to add onto the valid early scumcase on me (91)

You cited your own post.

Possible contradiction between 65 ("activity+content based") and encouragement of 1v1s compared to 96 "too tryhard" complaining about activity.

Are you serious? The line in the second post was a joke because she was falling behind.

Dont know what to make of complete disappearance before break. Real life happens, and Im glad youre through withdrawal and wish you the best on the continued recovery generally. But Im quite surprised that housebound Nauci would not turn to this at somepoint for relief. This is null, I debated not listing, but it is a question in my mind if I am honest.

This is absurd. Different people deal with different things in different ways, YOU might have returned here for relief, Nauci does not necessarily. The same way I take Advil after my wisdom tooth was removed but my sister took the heavy painkillers.

[brassherald]

@brassherald, welcome. When you get a chance, I'd love to hear your thoughts on 576 followed by answering this on behalf of your slot:

My thought are, it was a quick post, and I do not know the reasoning behind that vote. I am not allowed to message her and ask, and I wish I could.

Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between 236 and 371. Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about 250 compared to 333? Or 259, where Teacher throws out sheeping me? 271? And at least three other posts of your choice.

I would have hammered. No lynch is worse for town than lynching a VT.

250 to 333 is pretty bad for Flicker, to be honest. No lynching Day 1 inherently hurts town. Close to the deadline, Flicker pulls his vote off? That's bad for town.

Sheeping is weird from people. Form your own reads, pursue them. Sheeping is distinctly negative utility for town.

271 is not terrible, but not good. Meji's been doing lots of Information rather than analysis, I believe. That's not very townie. Trying to coordinate on lynches, though is a good thing. The best way would be to provide analysis rather than just pure information.

I don't have time to do the three other posts right now, but when I do a brief idea catch up I'm sure I will cite three posts or more.

I'll just stick this here, I am not promising a read list and intend to actually tell you I will not do a read list. It's not useful for me, and I don't feel it is ever useful for anyone else to read them. I will not budge on this ever again.

[Flicker]

Okay, now that that's out of the way, what I was going to post earlier:

My suspicion pool right now is Meji Fan, Nauci/brassherald, and Oxy. If Meji is playing a town game, it's a very weak one in my eyes. I second teacher (post #753) that the most overtly suspicious thing Nauci did was her vote on Thor D2. Oxy has been on both lynches, helped lead the charge on Thor yesterday but refused to engage fully in the discussion, and from the jump has strongly scumread me when no one else was. (I know that last point won't be as compelling to anyone else, but it's part of my read, so.)

Maybe I'm too trusting of a person, but I'm still inclined to believe teacher's tracker claim. Finally, if Irrelephant is mafia he absolutely deserves to win, because his posts seem consistently pro-town.

PEdit @ teacher: I actually think in MYLO it's not a great idea to vote in general? It's not the absolute danger of LYLO, but it only takes two wrong townies to lose here, so I will be withholding my vote until I feel like we've found scum.

PEdit2 @ brassherald: Can you post a quick read list/lynch pool/general impressions cloud?

PEdit3 @ brassherald: Why don't you think read lists are useful?

[Irrelephant11]

@Oxy I think you likely had it right

realistically, though. I think the team is simply 2 of {meji, flicker, nauci}.

but how do you feel about teacher at this point? seemed like you wanted thor dead because of teacher, but post-flip I'm curious your feelings

@meji tell me about the world in which you're town. Who's the scum team? Why?

@teacher why track Flicker?

brassherald and Flicker have promised more, I'll be excited to see it tomorrow. peace out for now

pedit: oh good Flicker has arrived, I want more from you about potential Oxy scum, gotta go bye

[Oxy]

Spoiler: Living Players
Oxy (replaced DirtyDishSoap)
Irrelephant11 (replaced ImBad14)
Flicker (repalced CH4M3L30N)
teacher
brassherald (replaced Nauci) (SE)
Meji Fan (replaced Cedrick) (SE)

Here's where I'm at:
We have 6 players, so it takes 4 to lynch.
We are currently in Mylo, which means that if we lynch incorrectly today, we lose.
Presumably, scum won't want to bus today. If they can secure a mislynch, they win.
Thus, to lynch scum today, all 4 town will have to accurately identify scum and cooperate to lynch that scum.


If we sleep, either teacher or elephant will die in the night. (or me, in some very small subset of worlds)
Tomorrow, will be 5 player lylo, which requires 1 less uninformed town to work together to get a scum lynch.
Brass, I think you can vouch for Lylo being statistically better for town than mylo?

Thus, I think we should treat today as if it were the first half of D4. Let's use the time, but then let's no lynch.

Of us 6,
Town
Oxy
Irrelephant

Not Town
teacher
Nauci
Meji
Flicker

Flicker is an ideal track target, and the crumbing during twilight is a lot more legitimate than it would have been D3. +town points
Unfortunately, the result was not ideal.

I would like people to work on association based cases for the 4 people in the "Not Town" list.
Include me as well, if you want. =|
The goal is to rule different teams out, but if you find a case for why an exact pair is the team, that's okay, too.