Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

Accepted. I did my best on a Brass-Flicker team way up in 841/842. I can see it - its a large reason why Im not voting at all. I will gladly respond to yours.

TBH, btw, I dont think you're scummy at all -- that is to say, if I read your ISO, I would not think scum. But its PoE pretty strong for me. If you are scum, its well-played.

I will gladly respond to your lurker-team, and town-me posts. TBH, I think you can town-explain every thing I have done except the timing of the claim. The fact there is (a) I thought I had outed myself - Oxy's right, I probably hadn't, (b) I thought I was suspect by many slots (why I dont think Flicker could be my partner) and wanted to avoid a lynch wagon and less believable L-1 claim, and (c) I thought it could only help town to build a mostly town block (since Thor didnt really outline a downside to a claim).

I will leave it to others to really convince you of the no-lynch. But I think it is better than losing the game now and I think any kill allows much better pure odds AND associational analysis. (scum!you now needs to leave flicker and me alive for mislynch purposes; scum!me now needs to leave Oxy and you alive to keep barking up the team tree.) Who is killed can be indicative, as well as whether a kill takes place.)

[brassherald]

In response to questions about Oxy being town, he's constantly been reevaluating and adapting. He's constantly been analyzing the game state as well. I don't see how teacher genuinely looks at his posts and says "Yes, this is scum" other than totally BSing this entire time.

If you want, I could pull out some posts from Oxy's ISO that I could only see coming from town.

We're far too deep into the day for me to support a no lynch, by the way.

Also, reevaluating and adapting your reads is a good thing, even if you come to the same result. That's part of why I locktown Oxy.

I'm sorry I am not posting more, I might as well mention here, I am kind of burnt out on mafia right now and thought a newbie game would rejuvinate my excitement. I just need a break from playing.

[Oxy]

If you want, I could pull out some posts from Oxy's ISO that I could only see coming from town.

I lowkey want to see these to better my future scum game, but I don't want to ask you to do work for my benefit outside of this game.

so I hope that you get taken up on your offer by teacher, et al. ;P

[Oxy]

@brassherald where are you right now on who we should lynch or should never lynch?

[teacher]

In response to questions about Oxy being town, he's constantly been reevaluating and adapting. He's constantly been analyzing the game state as well. I don't see how teacher genuinely looks at his posts and says "Yes, this is scum" other than totally BSing this entire time.

Cant you say the exact same about me? Just curious since you scum me. I move end of D1 from Meji-Nauci-James to preferring James; I move D2 from NK to Nauci to Meji to Thor; I move today from Brass to Oxy/Elephant? Im just missing how this logic saves him but scums me?

If you want, I could pull out some posts from Oxy's ISO that I could only see coming from town.

Please. Pretty Please. Please please please.

We're far too deep into the day for me to support a no lynch, by the way.

Fair enough. If Meji comes back in and wants to lynch, I will give up the ghost on this one.

I am kind of burnt out on mafia right now.

I get it. Good luck, and hope you come back with more energy. But it does suck to have a lurk spot replace with a lurk.

[teacher]

By the way, if no lynch is out, I really am 100% open between (Elephant Flicker), and would like to be convinced. Im guessing Flicker will be the consensus and will put a tentative vote there.

Elephant is because of the change in playstyle today, the mislynch hunting that goes with it, and because he has more potential associatives than Oxy (including both Brass and Flicker). The counter is because he was my towniest person through today, and I dont have much of an actual case on him.

Flicker is because she had been scummy before today, has the most potential associatives outside of my most likely team (including Brass, Elephant and

possibly

Meji), and because I view her play today (seeming to buddy me) as a way to support the mislynch without being too overt about it.

VOTE: Flicker.

Again, Id rather no lynch. But this is the best shot at a consensus that is not a game-ending mislynch. So here it is. Please do not L-1 before Meji can weigh in on the no lynch.

[Oxy]

>we're in mylo
>you think the scum team is {elephant, oxy}
>you're voting flicker

k.

[teacher]

From certainty to less certain:
The only thing I know for sure is I am town, and so a teacher!lynch loses the game.
The next thing I am most certain of is that a lynch will happen today.
The third thing I am pretty positive of is that Elephant cant be lynched, much though hes my number 1, because Flicker and you have hardtowned him, he's outside Meji's tunnel, and Brass's catchup post omits him.
The fourth thing I think is that Oxy wont be lynched, because Elephant and Brass hardtown him, and Flicker has stated indifference.

That leaves me with the unsavory option of trying to direct a lynch onto a spot I think (a) can be a consensus, and (b) could be scum, even if its not my top reads. Because I know lynching me ends the game. Also, it just occurred to me that Flicker's play from today could be a way of supporting the tunnel on me (by acting in a manner consistent with being my teammate) without overtly appearing to do so.

I think this is the best play I have left for the town. If you think any of the three thoughts at the start are wrong, Im more than open to being persuaded. Id personally love no lynch so I can track. But I think thats extraordinarily unlikely.

[Oxy]

great, thanks.

I just wanted to clarify that this wasn't a hard bus, just a soft one. ;P

(post 40ish% serious)

[teacher]

No, its pretty hard. Since anything requires 4 votes:

• No lynch is out -> Oxy, Elephant, Brass.
  
• Elephant is out -> Elephant, Oxy, Flicker
  
• Oxy is out -> Oxy, Elephant, Brass

Flicker is the only option at all. I see no downside from your perspective. If I was right about the team, you win. If you were right about the team, you get my scum partner and can sit in mylo tomorrow until I report my track results and decide what to do with them (lynch me?, lynch redcheck?, sleep on greencheck?). And if neither of us were correct on calling both players, there's tremendous equity in Flicker.

[Oxy]

Ya, I'm with you for the most part.

Obviously, I'm somewhat hesitant because I see red when I look into your eyes

But you're right that I'm probably lynching flicker here if it becomes clear I can't get your lynch.

[teacher]

Plus, if Flicker is scum!PR, that shows my claim is real.

[teacher]

@Oxy - doesnt the last point (again, a late idea) - that a Flicker lynch could confirm!town me - actually show Flicker is better than me in all circumstances?

I ask because I now expect Flicker to vote me, given the hard case I am making. That will bring me to essentially L-1 when either of Brass or Meji (who have sus'd me) could hammer. Thus, I am being very sensitive to the fact that this Flicker play I am making now could end the game. If you truly are town, what is the reason for not targeting the person you thought was my partner, when they could possibly confirm my role? (same logic, btw, applies to Elephant. I just see a Flicker-Elephant team as far more likely than you, when you cased Flicker D1 and Elephant defended her).

[Oxy]

BTW, I'm a fan of pretty much everyone in this game, so if any of ya'll can stand to play with teacher and me again you should /in for this. It looks like a fun setup, and it's fun to play with people you have some experience with.

Now taking signups for:

Open 723:

Purgatory

Setup:

3x Mafia Goon, 6x Vanilla Townies

Mod:

Maruchan

Players:

6/9

1. Invisibility
   
2. ejjinami
   
3. teacher
   
4. Oxy
   
5. RC most awesomest
   
6. Alchemist21

[Oxy]

@Oxy - doesnt the last point (again, a late idea) - that a Flicker lynch could confirm!town me - actually show Flicker is better than me in all circumstances?

I ask because I now expect Flicker to vote me, given the hard case I am making. That will bring me to essentially L-1 when either of Brass or Meji (who have sus'd me) could hammer. Thus, I am being very sensitive to the fact that this Flicker play I am making now could end the game. If you truly are town, what is the reason for not targeting the person you thought was my partner, when they could possibly confirm my role? (same logic, btw, applies to Elephant. I just see a Flicker-Elephant team as far more likely than you, when you cased Flicker D1 and Elephant defended her).

Okay, this is kind of obvious, mate, but here's the explanation:

I am more sure of your alignment than I am of flicker's alignment, and I'm not 100% sure that flicker is your partner.

Yes, she is my second favorite lynch. No, she isn't my favorite lynch.

Also, I'm pretty deep in the wifom rabbit hole surrounding your flicker push right now. It's dark, and I'm afraid. I'll let you know when I find my way out.

[teacher]

Happy burrowing. Seriously, I enjoy you.

To the extent it helps your WIFOMing, I AM @#$%$#@% town. I think at least one, if not both, of you and elephant are scum driving a mislynch wagon. Your play is consistent, his is not. Thus, I am pushing Flicker as both (a) the only available consensus lynch that isnt me, and (b) to get you off the feeling that I am scum if you are town.

The scumcase on me is shite. Its based primarily on the apparent contradiction between NK's actions and his words. But I seriously beg you, look at 822 and tell me thats not possible. I agree with you that the surface contradiction is there -- which is why scum!me could never have come up with the jailkept claim. I only came up with it BECAUSE IT HAPPENED, and I got results confirming it happened.

[teacher]

Also, if you are town and your read on elephant (which I had shared until today) is right, then there is a 66% chance that Flicker is in fact scum (without me), or 50% (with me) -- the same exact chance as you have on me in the abstract.

I like you, but if youre town and Im lynched Im going to be abusing the walls of my house with my head.

[Irrelephant11]

So Meji is basically out of any scumteam I come up with. Meji voting Nauci/brass for most of the game for no discernible reason is weird, but does rule out a meji/nauci team for me. If that is the team, I quit. It's the most insane gamble of a gimmick ever, and if it wins it deserves lots of praise, but meanwhile I've gotta rule it out.

Everyone else alive participated in bringing Meji to L-1 on D2, with the possibility that any other town player could hammer for scummy play. If meji is scum, maybe I'll reevaluate and figure that out after someone flips red, but meanwhile I've gotta rule it out.

I'm playing out potential worlds where teacher isn't scum, so currently ruling that out.

dds and nauci were never a team, so oxy and brassherald aren't a team.

that leaves oxy/flicker, brassherald/flicker. Interesting. I do feel terrible about Flicker's D2 regardless of partner, so that makes sense. I'm only now realizing that I ruled out oxy/flicker pretty quickly (plus the other team has been cased today), so I'm ISOing that first.

Hmmm. D1, DDS townread Flicker, but Oxy scumread them hard at entrance (around 163). Could maybe be a way of early distancing? 260 and 265 are super weird if they're a team, though. As are 333 and 349. Okay, yeah, I'm remembering why I didn't think this was the team. SidenoteL In this world, teacher's "town block" is hilariously bad. Not sure what to do with 409 while analyzing teamy-ness.

Then their reads actually match a lot of the time D2 (e.g. voting Meji), except that Oxy has consistently included Flicker in scumread lists all game, which would be weird and unnecessary for a scumteam, especially since no one else has pushed as hard against Flicker until today. 476 Oxy says he's happy to help Flicker bus her partner Meji, which is a weird form of sideways bussing in a world these are scum. 504 and 506 really make this team crash into the ground. It's sorta similar to DDS/Nauci.

Today, both players have given each other "not quite my favorite lynch" status which does slightly strengthen the scum case, but overall I find it unlikely that Oxy has thrown Flicker's name around so casuallywhile Flicker has been quiet about Oxy in return. D3 co-reads aside, I find this team very very unlikely, especially based on their overall tone with one another throughout the game.

Which leaves me with brass/Flicker, which honestly seems sorta reasonable...

Actually, to add teacher back in (sorry I know this semi breaks our proposal but mostly it doesn't), I find oxy/teacher

extremely

unlikely, and almost nothing has pushed me toward teacher/brass. Flicker might actually be the best way to go? I have to leave early today, so I'll maybe try to check in late tonight if I get a chance

[Irrelephant11]

Re: 938 I would love to play more with y'all! Just concerned I might be too busy rn, at least until this game finishes. I'll hopefully run into you more here in the newbie list or other games, though

[teacher]

@Elephant, as part of our deal I said I would respond. My response is - I AGREE.

The potential teams are: (Oxy-Elephant), (Flicker-Teacher), (Flicker-Brass), (Flicker-Elephant), (Brass-Meji)

The first is my windmill that is never going to happen.

The second is Elephant's and Oxy's windmill that they just might lynch. But the important point is that it is my only option. For Oxy, I will direct the question again-how does a pairing between Brass and me make sense given my actual push on Nauci D2 (which Flicker defended), and the push on Brass D3 (until Elephant made the DDS-Nauci point)> If flicker is my only partner, but potentially paired with others and could town me, isnt she the better lynch.

The third I've covered before, and now so too has Elephant. My one concern with this team is that they might have chosen to sit out N2 for WIFOMING, given that both NK and I were expected to hunt (a move that could have succeeded given JK claim).

The fourth is something nobody has discussed, but Elephant's defending Flicker D1, largely overlooking her D2, and now tunnel on me D3 makes at least possible. I suppose Brass-Elephant belongs in this category too, but Brass's pressure makes that seem less likely.

The fifth is something I think I should at least reraise - this game could well be scum sit on their hands and let town handle it. I think it is unlikely for the reasons Elephant states.

So there's my reaction, as promised. I remain voting where I am, but preferring no lynch.

[Oxy]

yeah, i don't know mate.

You're definitely making this difficult, if you're scum.

If you're town, you're doing a pretty good job, except for the oxy+elephant thing (wut?)

You're the sort of player who only goes down kicking and screaming - like Thor? =P

[Flicker]

In a pretend world where:

A, E, I, and O are town while U and Y are scum,

and A, E, and I say U is scum while O, U, and Y say E is scum, how does a nightkill help more than playing today out? (this is intentionally not a perfect parallel to our game, it's just a talking point)

Seems like one of Ab/Ef/Ij always dies, leaving the game easier for scum to win. Until now, all players but you have shared lotsa reads info, so scum only has 1 source of guesswork overnight, or 0 if somehow you're town and die tonight. What's left for town to gain from this?

I think the best advantage is that we'll have another confirmed townie's reads to look through to help make or unmake any cases. Also, A/E/I dies and their reads - right or wrong - are at least genuine, and therefore another data point of "this is what town play looks like."

Furthermore, I think in this particular situation, E is always left alive as the easiest mislynch for scum to win. So A or I dies, leaving the other torn between their correct read and the push on the mislynch, and the minute A/I or O is on the E wagon, the scum jump on to win. Oh - I think I just argued

against

a no lynch. Hmm...

I just don't see myself being able to trust three of you the way I might be able to trust two of you (if I'm not nightkilled, and why would I be? I'm basically E right now). And I know town needs me to win. But, if y'all are really dead-set against a no lynch today, I'll concede and come back with my reads.

[Meji Fan]

I did town read Flicker yesterday which no-one included in their exhaustive reams of Flicker discussion, I'm not convinced at all Flicker is our best bet

[Oxy]

who do you want to lynch

[mhsmith0]

.