less color variety rainbow reads list \o/
- I feel like a lot of attention is going to go here next after the flips but I... still think this is town? Re-ISOing Draco today has just strengthened this read honestly. For starters, I don't think
#793 ever actually comes from scum. PP is town for this too but (obviously) that's irrelevant. Basically, scum doesn't hop on this wagon like this ever. Instead of staying on the safer Micc wagon Draco shifted in a rather blunt way to a mislynch. That move makes Draco one of the prime investigation targets that night (Vedith probably chose PP for similar reasons), which compounds with the fact he'd already faced a good amount of pressure/suspicion. I don't know why a scum!Draco here wouldn't just stay on the wagon he was already on and let the lynch go through without him, it would've attracted a lot less attention. I suppose it's possible he thought he was already doomed and wanted to ensure a mislynch would go through, but that seems highly questionable to me
I still don't think the conversation in
#504 is faked. It's a very high level of detail and I don't think it's a tactic scum uses to try and save their ass. I town read his entire attitude throughout the game, particularly in posts like
#517 where despite being under pressure he's still showing a drive to solve the game and asks RC to challenge his reasoning on certain slots. Overall, he seems like somewhat frustrated town that's still trying to solve despite being under pressure.
- So, a couple people have said my argument for BBMolla is just "too wolfy to be wolf" and not a great basis. I guess that's part of it, but I also don't think there's scum motivation in entering the game like he did and not reading the thread. I'm not trying to read effort as alignment indicative, but I do think his initial vote coming into the game comes from a town place, and his lack of detailed followup does not come from a scum place. Scum would want to milk the shit out of that and analyzing people's reactions to his self vote in order to appear towny.
Other than that, I do think there's just some things BBMolla has said that scum just... don't?
#173 and
#197 are the best examples of this. Don't think scum admits to skimming the thread, at least not so readily. Don't think scum tosses out a free town read on what could be a lynch-baity slot depending on the player list's reactions to Dr Worm.
Oh also the fact that OK was one of the people who tried to invalidate my town read on BBmolla early makes me think it's correct
- Mixed on this slot. Kinda worried my early paranoia here was correct, and that I just gave xwing what they needed to be more familiarly town!xwing in my eyes. This is probably a slot I should do a proper meta dive on when I get the time, because a lot of my gut feelings on this slot comes from a sample size of 1 game I completed with them.
Reading back over the previous day, I was looking for people that were playing *not* to be investigated. Especially as a potential Micc partner, xwing really fits this bill imo.
#606 and
#663 ping me the most. In the first, xwing soft-defends Micc and then votes BBmolla, someone I'm pretty sure is town but also someone no else had really expressed interest in voting. It's a vanity vote, especially when the main two wagons of the day (excluding the surprise Vedith one) had already been established. BBmolla was never gonna be the lynch yesterday, and it's not like xwing really tries to sway people over to this wagon, which they should be doing if they really believe this slot is scum. It's too safe of a vote.
The second post also reads like someone not trying very hard to get people to vote bbmolla, and from my experience with xwing I feel like they're a stronger player than that.
1) reason for scum read is based on style? but also says they can't read the style
2) ignores the explanation bbmolla did give for voting micc that was pretty valid
3) fair ig, but had already been discussed
4) not a reason
Overall, just a very weak vanity vote that ignores the main wagons and doesn't really try to start a new one or take any strong stances. From what I know, I feel like xwing can be stronger than this as town, but tonally, they're very similar to my meta with them. next thing I do here is a proper meta dive and try to do it as objectively as possible
- The Worm pinged me on reread for mostly the same reasons xwing did. It's a vanity vote that looks more like an attempt to avoid being investigated than actually looking for scum. Worm's reasoning for his vote is much stronger than xwings. However, the reasoning was essentially setup preflip by Worm in D1, so I don't think a scum!worm setting up a place to go D2 that doesn't look too suspicious is out of the question. His reads on the two most likely wagons to go through yesterday were "Draco is town by heart but brain not sure" (fence sitty but doesn't invite suspicion) and "micc scum by poe". Neither are particularly strong stances and especially if the Draco lynch is town it's a good way to avoid an investigation there.
#650 kinda does the same thing except it's trying to lowkey pocket the person he's voting? It seems like a useless post to make otherwise as it's not enough for him to actually change his vote. I also find it weird that Dr Worm doesn't question or try to poke at the Draco push more considering he had him as a town lean. However, I still town read a few of his earlier observations on specific players that I've mentioned before. Since I think Micc is very likely scum, I think it's likely only 1 of xwing/Worm is scum
- I've explained why already. Still think this is probably the best lynch and should have happened yesterday. I'll vote here in 24 hours, just want to give a chance for others to post reads after flips and give time for me to get a few more of my thoughts together. I don't really trust people won't just speed lynch
tldr:
micc/junko still good lynch - one of dr worm or xwing as prob partner
draco/bbmolla town (and pp obviously)