TM2020 | Untrod Tripod Destroys Anime! | Endgame

[Klick]

Please stop, Bitmap/RC. You're not having fun and you're not adding anything worthwhile to the thread with your posting.

[Klick]

Like there's literally nothing to be pissy about unless you're scum flailing to try and somehow reach LyLo.

[Bitmap]

Like there's literally nothing to be pissy about unless you're scum flailing to try and somehow reach LyLo.

RC said

There's so much to be pissy about when you guys decided to suddenly mech clear someone who claimed friendly neighbor on dead while having no reason to target dead (jjh) and the reasoning wasn't there?

[Jingle]

Chem has a role with visible results. This is a known quantity, because there's no reason to fake having it from scum Chem's perspective.

Chem was not blocked by jjh or Mena last night, considering both jjh and mena were, you know, dead. There is very little chance of a third blocking role in the setup.

Kerset, therefore, is either a commuter or an ascetic.

Kerset is unlikely to be a scum commuter. First of all, Commuter/RB/Strongman is pretty ridiculous as a scumteam, especially with an investigative like mastina's. Second, Kers claimed a third ability, so if no such ability materializes, he has a big problem.

Kerset is unlikely to be an ascetic. Similarly to the commuter, this doesn't really fit in a scumteam with a roleblocker very well. In fact, it's even less suited to the scumteam since it only creates a false guilty (on scum) for mastina and doesn't protect from the vig shot. Furthermore, Menalque claimed ascetic midflail, which would be a very interesting reaction if he knew there were an ascetic in the setup via partner knowledge. And, tbc, it was a flail because

jj's flip explained mastina's guilty perfectly

. Additionally, Kerset has no out if targeted by say, the missing inventor role that is known to exist and not getting an invention. It's a dead man walking claim, made by supposedly the last scum standing.

Finally, Kerset's claimed role has positive interactions with ofhrz and negative interactions with mastina and town inventor, which lends it the ring of truth.

Mechanically, as much as I want to scumread Kerset for play reasons, it's probably just a town slot.

[Jingle]

There's so much to be pissy about when you guys decided to suddenly mech clear someone who claimed friendly neighbor on dead while having no reason to target dead (jjh) and the reasoning wasn't there?

I admitted getting the answer there is worth doing, Bit. Kers can answer why he targeted jjh. Tell RC this is one of those weird games where he can trust me to be town or defending town and thus looking over my reasoning on Kers is 100% reasonable and both of you can cool down.

Mastina hasn't gotten any traction on lynching you, so you don't need to rage against the machine atm. This feels exactly like the ROFLstomp 2070 turned into, and we'll get to lynching Fumuki 100% faster if we approach this calmly.

[Chemist1422]

@RC/Bit
I have mechanical confirmation that Kerset commuted last night

It's unlikely they could do that and take the kill at the same time

RC wants to know if it's actually that they commuted or that your action failed? Even then, there wasn't a night kill...

the latter

but I doubt it's that I was roleblocked

RC wanted to know if you ever heard of a role called "Ascetic" before.

doesn't really make sense with Mena's claim, especially since he misunderstood what ascetic was which I don't think happens if he has a partner with that ability

[Bitmap]

UNVOTE:

RC seems determined it's Kerset but I will get some more opinions (NSG in particular) on it.

[hitogoroshi]

disagree with Jingle; I'm gonna claim now. There's tons of positive utility (people start sorting stuff knowing I'm town now instead of wasting brain power on dead-end spec) and hardly any negative utility (only have three talismans so I can give away the third before death tonight anyway).

I'm Mahiro Fuwa, and my power is Talismans. Each night, I

must

give away one of three talismans. Can't give one to myself.

N1, I gave bulletproof to mastina. My main goal was just to dodge N1 kill, since talisman didn't turn on the night I gave it out.
I think Bitmap is pretty much just lock-scum, so my pool of likely NKs was: menal as a 'default' kill, Alisae close behind especially if NSG wants to pivot to more convenient fake suspicion. And then a tier below, myself if the team was exactly Bitmap/Shadoweh and jjh if Bitmap wanted to get saucy with the 1v1 D2, since jjh was the most influential Bitmap voter. And then I had chemist as my outside fifth of "mafia really want to dodge docs and watchers and are just picking someone who'd probably be a hard ml." I figured that mastinas flip would implicate Bitmap more than her presence, if that makes sense, so she seemed like the best intersection of "potential target N2, but unlikely target N1". I didn't really believe mastinas PR softing at all so total luck I protected her on that score. The only person I seriously considered was Jingle, because Jingle seemed the most likely player to go for a gambit handshake. I was planning to post something like:

@{recipient}: I gave you a talisman. the flavor for you only hints at what it does, but I can tell you explicitly. Given what you know about your own stuff, do you think that knowledge on how to use it correctly is worth it being public info?

and quote some sort of juicy fakeclaim that makes it seem like a worthy target to shoot on an affirmative answer - I think the one I was leaning towards is "Gives you an extra shot of x-shot abilities: when you use that extra shot I also get your results" to both add kp and explain why I would out it to thread. But in the end mastinas more likely N2 KP (presuming a Bitmap redflip) was a more compelling reason than Jingle's higher likelihood to notice a gambit handshake instead of calling me out for 'lying'.

(As an aside, I think that killing Alisae makes tons of sense for Bitmap scum and wouldn't be surprised if it was a double kill on Alisae, lmao.)

N2, I gave hated to Bitmap. I think hated is a pretty bad and anti-town modifier - even though I think Bitmap is scum I don't want to trick someone into hammering before they think they are or whatever. But my talismans are compulsory, and I had to do this to save my last one (which I'm obviously not claiming today).

Anyway it's probably just still Bitmap and y'all being silly. I'm gonna use the Bitmap case I drafted up during the night N1, because I'm proud that I used a deliberately silly tone to try to mask the fact I was also softing the BP. In the interests of integrity I'll even keep in the bit that I thought Shadoweh was third scum

Hi everyone! Don't get stupid about the fact that Bitmap was the second biggest wagon; he is just also scum. Remember that if he is scum 2 there is only one unaccounted for partner, and it is probably Shadoweh who was on neither wagon because she parked me the entire day. so arguments that Bitmap was a counterwagon are irrelevant because both wagons were probably just all town. Please do not let the two day gap distract you from the fact that Bitmap blatantly lied about his frustration to dodge accountability. If you have forgotten why Bitmap is scum, please perform the following steps:

1.) Get a snack ready at hand.
2.) Start playing some sick tunes.
2a.) If you are underprivileged and deprived of sick tunes, a copy of La Roux's Grammy award-winning debut album "La Roux" will be provided to you.
3.) Go read 1908 again.
3a.) As per clarifications to Alisae, the snack is not strictly necessary. But if you get bored or hungry partway through go ahead and eat that sucker. That's what it's there for!
4.) Also read Bitmap 1760, naked requesting a reundo unvote despite reundo being an ostensible scumread for nsg in 1425, with her response in 1930 just saying "I didn't want a hammer" (with no explanation why a hammer on a top-4 suspect would be a bad thing.)
5.) Check out the greatest hits of Bitmap doing hot and fresh buddy posting: 241, 545, 921, 925.
6.) Go read my 958 and give praise to my gut for knowing they were buddies before my conscious mind did. Great job, hitos gut!
7.) VOTE: Bitmap
8.) What the heck, go get another snack. You earned it champ!

mastina I'm ~obviously~ willing to listen on Shadoweh if you wanna get more on your reasons to go there first, but to me this feels pretty clear. Also, Jingle:

I'm saying that the people who were on neither the wagon or the counterwagon, but who were both around enough to push something and WEREN'T pushing something with legs are town

This is a silly point because 'with legs' is a function of the other townies, right? I was pushing Bitmap and Bitmap was pushing myself/Alisae. The reason my wagon 'had legs' and Bitmaps didn't is because three confirmed townies agreed with my reasoning and no one agreed with Bitmap - it's not as though if Bitmap was scum, he would have mind-controlled people on to Alisae, right?

I am happy to believe Kerset because actually I think Kerset's dayplay was really good at the end there, the fear about reundo 'getting away with it' seems like not what you'd do as buddy even if you wanted to bus. Especially when I gave him an easy out in 1763. Also I feel like the jjh feels like a pretty unlikely kill if you don't think Bitmap is scum. Also, it makes menals attempts to deepwolf instead of following the bloc with me on to Bitmap much more sensible.

[Bitmap]

So I'm talking to RC and there's one really good point that I'd like some answers to.

Why would this game have a friendly neighbourizer and a loyal neighbourizer in the same game?

[Chemist1422]

do I need a snack if I'm about to go eat dinner

[Chemist1422]

So I'm talking to RC and there's one really good point that I'd like some answers to.

Why would this game have a friendly neighbourizer and a loyal neighbourizer in the same game?

Because they're very different abilities?

[hitogoroshi]

Why would Five Guys have burgers *and* fries?

[mastina]

Okay, so as promised, my writeup is below. It is modified from the last draft I made, since I edited it as the night went on and thus the original was more stream of consciousness less coherent, added teammate thoughts that weren't there, from the day thusfar realized some things needed further clarity and some thoughts have changed from what I last wrote, but here it is more or less:

I don't really think there's much debate that I am pretty much conftown. I don't expect my input to be valued disproportionately highly--or rather, that might happen but I would strongly prefer it not and to the contrary would indeed prefer it be just another voice. I feel like I've done the most to help the town already that I can do. Between the D2 guilty and the D1 contributions, I actually don't think that I, personally, will have much to add, that I, personally, won't be able to magically find the third scum in addition to the other two.
That's no excuse for me to not try, so I am still going to attempt it, to still try for the final correct solve.
And, heck--even if I cannot, then my teammates have a reasonable chance of catching the third, as a fresh set of eyes to go over the critical D1.

But I believe that the rest of the town players in this game in tandem with their teammates reading this game will

probably

be the actual ones to catch the third--their teammates have mostly-fresh eyes to go over the critical D1 and I expect that D1 is where the best scumhunting will come from, so other slots in the game bouncing ideas off of their teammates is the most likely source of finding the correct answer.

That said, I still feel like I should contribute

to

that. By giving my personal thoughts and process, I can hopefully maybe help guide the other players in this game with their teammates to where they need to go.

And for a start:
I don't actually want to lynch Bitmap today. I think that Bitmap shouldn't reach lylo. If Bitmap reaches lylo, autolynch the slot. But Bitmap should be lynched in 5/6p, or 7/8p (tomorrow). There's two reasons for this. The first is for the information of the slot being town; the second to keep the "was it really that easy?" question settled. I don't think we need to lynch Bitmap today and I don't think we should, but I do think Bitmap should be lynched as a precautionary measure to help clarify the game--just...not today, instead tomorrow.

Do I think Bitmap is scum and the game is that easy? It's at least 35% or so

possible

, but with that percentile, I wouldn't call it probable. High enough that I don't want Bitmap alive in lylo, but low enough that...actually. Surprise surprise. I don't want Bitmap lynched today. There's a far higher chance Bitmap is town, than there is that Bitmap is scum, in my eyes.

Right now, I am mostly looking in the grouping of {ofhrz, Shadoweh, hitogoroshi, Alisae} as containing the last scum.
Alisae flipped town.
ofhrz claimed credit for the kill, so the options there are either she's scum faking a vig kill or is genuinely a vig who killed Alisae--of the two, the latter is by far the more likely; the split is like 5-95 or so; see below for more on that, but basically ofhrz is mostly out of contention so that would leave my best guesses as one of Shadoweh or hitogoroshi.
If you asked me at the start of D3, I'd say Shadoweh > hito as the last scum, but I'm less sure now. (But, more on that below.)

For those who were excluded...
Klick was originally excluded from this because of what amounts to gut and isoing other players in the game (among them, Reundo's readslist; I don't think Reundo lists a second scumbuddy as a top townread and that is among the reasons why I lean against Bitmap being scum right now). I just got the overall feeling of his slot being town. But when I actually iso'd Klick, I got much, much stronger reasons.

Klick's early list had both Menalque and Gamma listed as nulls. That's not impossible for scum, it's just slightly less likely in my opinion. 672 felt genuine as well to me as being not-scumbuddies handling of the slot. 1048 was also good in my opinion. 1095 seems strongly anti-buddy, too. His handling of the Reundo wagon was something that I feel like was good as well. He thought that the reasons for wagoning Reundo were a stretch, but that wagoning Reundo was still a good idea for simpler reasons. Given that I have a mild suspicion of a possible double-bus (it's confirmed Menalque bussed Reundo and possible the second scum was there, too), this is the towniest possible stance to be honest. Is he my strongest townread? No, but I am still reasonably confident that Klick is town from what I've seen.

Chemist is excluded because Chemist is

probably

(see below note) my top townread, obviously town from everything including being the only slot yesterday who had an actually alignment-indicative handling of it in my opinion and whose handling of it was immensely town. This dude radiates obvtown to me--so if you think this slot is scum, then if you are right you'll need to ignore me.

You're more than free to because like I said, I don't think I'll actually catch the last scum. But if you were to listen to me, Chemist is (probably) my strongest townread. His iso looks town the entire way, including him being one of the few slots to have a stance on Reundo which looks like a town stance and also having a stance on Menalque which looks anti-buddy.

However, worthy of note: kuribo had an alternative take; in his skimming, he thought that Chemist calling Mena scum and giving an out was forced, and has a hard time buying that someone tells a scumread to shoot the investigative that guiltied them.
At daystart I would've hard-disagreed with this take and dismissed it offhandedly; this has softened to a soft-disagree because of me agreeing with Jingle's setup spec of the last scum being probably investigative in nature and Chemist having softed an investigative role. I still feel like he is far more likely town than not, though.

Jingle is excluded because I did a rule of 3 to Reundo's townread list, where he listed Menalque in the same tier as Chemist, top townread, and Jingle. Then, when I iso'd Jingle, everything just seemed town from him.
This is probably a read I need to elaborate on, but I don't feel like doing it right now. (Sorry!)

Kerset was originally excluded for similar reasons to Klick--mostly gut with a side of isoing other players in the game, and thinking that the slot is less likely to be scum.
But upon an iso of Kerset, I've got to place Kerset as second-strongest town behind Chemist. Maybe even STRONGEST town. I could go into the exact posts that elicited this change, but long story short: I doubt that Kerset calls his scumbuddy a 'bully', and lean towards the opinion that the early fos on Mena wasn't distancing.

Kerset was one of the few to have Menalque as an early suspicion in fact. Kerset was pushing Menalque as scum the whole game.
It could've been, a la Star Wars Rogue One, the scum who was meant to take the fall for the deepscum, setting up the deepscum for success...only to have the deepscum be cop guiltied...

...But far far more likely is that Kerset is just town.

That left the four mentioned above, and Bitmap.

If my solve is correct, we could theoretically afford to lynch all of them thanks to the kill on Alisae. But that would only be IF my solve is correct, and I fully admit to it being a rather notable 'if'.

Originally, my preference was ofhrz > Shadoweh > hitogoroshi with Alisae deliberately unsorted because fuck reading Alisae, I don't care if I'm conftown, I am not going to pretend that I can try this in good faith and come to an actually informed stance on em. (Fortunately, that is no longer an issue.)

But to give my thoughts on others:
When I put in the time to read Menalque's iso, posts like this one reaffirm my stance that the big four probably contain the final scum, and of them, ofhrz looks by far the worst of them in Menalque's iso.

When I isoed ofhrz, her iso looked like the very best fit for being the third scum. In isolation, this game separate from others, ofhrz stuck out as the most suspicious of the three I analyzed...

...But there were things which gave me doubt. Specifically, I had a source of strong hesitation in the form of, "the things I am looking at which look like scum, I remember thinking looked like scum in Any Non-Dead Person Can Post, when they weren't". That in of itself made me doubt the accuracy of the scumread due to the past experience.

Then comes the killer of the scumread. The main thing which gives me doubt in Mena's iso about ofhrz being the scumbuddy: it would be Menalque diverting attention away from one scumbuddy (ofhrz) onto another (Gamma/Reundo). This sounds like the sort of "big-brain" type play that could be made, especially by an upcoming star of scumplay, but feels less likely to be made because to my knowledge--that's not something anyone actually does? Like...I've never heard of anyone, ever, diverting attention away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another.

I have heard plenty of cases where players were

accused

of doing this. Accused of diverting attention away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another; accused of the flipped scum player diverting away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another; etc. But as far as I can recall, these people were wrong each and every single time because nobody actually does that as far as I know.

Menalque might be the type of player who could pull it off as a first of its kind maneuver, but like...would he actually?

Which is why I say: the majority of Menalque's iso strongly suggests ofhrz as a scumbuddy, but things like this give me reasonable doubt on that conclusion because it requires a course of action I don't think I've ever seen an actual scum player actually pull off.

Between "the reasons I am scumreading her sound like the same reasons I wrongly scumread her when she was town", "Menalque's iso would, if she were scum, require a scum interaction I've never seen ACTUALLY be true in spite of countless games of people proposing it", and the vig claim on having killed Alisae, there's pretty damn strong evidence suggesting ofhrz is town.
For her to be scum would require that she fake a vig, HOPE that there was an explanation for a lack of a second nightkill, have a weird-ass never-before-seen scum interaction with Menalque, and to have play very very very closely resembling one of her notable towngames.
To say that's an absolutely ridiculous violation of Occam's Razor would be a bit of an understatement. So she is by far the most town and probably conftown at this point in time.

When I isoed Shadoweh, her iso was a whole bunch of, "this could be scum, but also could be town", with zero inkling as to which way it would lean. She's an utter dead zone in terms of reads. It's possible she's the last scum; it's possible she's town; I can't tell the difference in spite of having tried.

When I isoed hitogoroshi, immediately I could tell: "this

could

in

theory

be scum, but is almost certainly not"--hitogoroshi is a top-tier scum player and Menalque is an upcoming prodigy of scumplay. Their interactions could thus be scum theater with them slow-rolling intricate, dynamic interactions that naturally weave themselves into a perfect storm where they both look town from it but if one of them were to flip scum the other wouldn't. That

could

be the case, because hitogoroshi is that good and deserves a healthy amount of respect, and Menalque is probably that good.

But while they could be scumbuddies, everything about their interactions suggests that they aren't. Everything in that interaction, strongly, makes it look like they aren't. I can see them being scum, but the narrative for it requires a specific narrative that takes specific interpretations of facts that leads to a narrative that is most definitely a violation of occam's razor--an interaction that by necessity requires paranoia, because on its own, it looks town.

He deserves healthy paranoia, sure, yes, respecting his skill as a scum player does warrant a certain level of caution...but there is such a thing as too much caution. Last night, my inclination was that calling him scum was exactly that, too cautious, and that of ofhrz/Shadoweh/him, he was the least scummy of them.

With the things others have said and ofhrz being cleared, I am no longer as certain and want to revisit this assessment.

When it comes to thoughts from my teammates: I mentioned kuribo above and his take.
Xtoxm wants to just lynch Bitmap and then next day (D4), massclaim and assess the situation. (If we do that, that's not a bad choice I suppose, but we should all be on the same page. But this assessment of that plan is mine, everything in this specific parenthesis does not come from him.)

So those are my basic thoughts with what I've gotten from my team, and I want to hear the feedback of other players and their teams on their own takes on this.
I did put my utmost thought into it, but this is about as good as I can give in terms of thoughts.

I THINK that covers everything?

[mastina]

Please stop, Bitmap/RC. You're not having fun and you're not adding anything worthwhile to the thread with your posting.

I mean.
It's pretty apparent at this point that there's one of two options for Bitmap.
Either he's trolling town or he's just legit the last scum.

I favor the former over the latter.

[Bitmap]

So I'm talking to RC and there's one really good point that I'd like some answers to.

Why would this game have a friendly neighbourizer and a loyal neighbourizer in the same game?

Because they're very different abilities?

RC is saying that the odds of having two innocent child roles in a heavy PR heavy role madness game that also has vig/jk/etc is tremendous. Too much town power.

Scum, in this game, has not had close to enough powers flipped for this to be balanced with 2 IC roles, let alone one of them that can be unstoppable and protect itself.

[Jingle]

I'm gonna claim now.

You were possibly the only person who should have claimed as inventor.

Spicy AF though.

[Bitmap]

*unstoppably protect itself

fixed.

[Jingle]

Why would Five Guys have burgers *and* fries?

Wait, they have burgers and fries? I thought that was a peanut restaurant.

[Bitmap]

Why would Five Guys have burgers *and* fries?

Wait, they have burgers and fries? I thought that was a peanut restaurant.

I usually skip the fries and just grab a bunch of peanuts with a normal cheeseburger with everything.

[Bitmap]

Since we're in an anime game and I wanna just post dank memes and not only RC stuff.

Has anyone played Arknights? It just released as a mobile game yesterday.



Give me your friend codes if you got em.

[hitogoroshi]

hitogoroshi is a top-tier scum player

lmaooo mastina you are for sure thinking of some other player, I have not been forum scum since literally 2014 and I've always been infamous as a transparent player who does way better as town. Chemist was in grade school the last time I was forum scum. I did put in some good scum games on Copper, but I think the detached tone I used there was a key part of it. Good thing I am just confirmed or this would have been hilariously frustrating

I think the alien means you can put in more 1-shot power than you'd think because it causes a lot of town PRs to just not go off

[mastina]

Also, obviously, above was written before I saw hito's post.

hitogoroshi is conftown now no matter what angle you take.
ofhrz is last scum faking vig? Well, then, hito can't be scum.
Kerset is last scum who commuted last night instead of killing? Well, then, hito can't be scum.
Scum is not either of them?
Well then for hitogoroshi to be scum, he would need to have either deliberately no-killed to fake a false-bp hit, or deliberately submitted a kill on me he knew from his own role was guaranteed to fail. In a game where there could be any number of PRs that could poe the game still, and if there was a vig (as there was), give what amounts to a free lynch to the town since by no-killing and letting the vig kill, the game would remain on odds rather than going to evens.

I don't know about you, but I very much sincerely doubt that hito in a role madness game looks at the above plan and goes, "yeah, that sounds like a good idea to me".
Soyeah.
hito conftown; ofhrz conftown.
Kerset very likely town; Chemist quite likely town.
Jingle and Klick no mechanical reasons to be town, but townreads of mine based on play.

That leaves Shadoweh and Bitmap.

[mastina]

RC is saying that the odds of having two innocent child roles in a heavy PR heavy role madness game that also has vig/jk/etc is tremendous. Too much town power.

Okay so Bitmap's legit the final scum because RC knows roles well enough to not make this mistake.
VOTE: Bitmap.
Loyal Neighborizer isn't an IC--it is a cop. I am not conftown because of my role, I am conftown because of how the usage of my role played out. PenguinPower I believe even sent a message to me when I confirmed my role as masonizer reminding me, 'technically you are not conftown to the player you neighborize'.

Friendly Neighbor IS an IC.

They do opposite things. Friendly Neighbor confirms to the target that the player doing the action is town (but does nothing to confirm the player receiving the action as town); Loyal Neighborizer confirms the target as town (but does nothing to confirm the player doing the action is town).

A game with an IC and an investigative is absolutely fine especially considering both actions could run afoul of a town role AND a scum role.
His post to the contrary is 100% flailing.

[Shadoweh]

I'm just glad im not the only vanilla town in the game, i was beginning to get seriously concerned
I dunno how you could look at this and see kerset scum tbh that's the last person id call scum r/n
being lynched after hito in holy matrimony sounds fun (b/c the game will be over prob :V)

[Jingle]

Oh. That's boring, mastina touched on none of the actual reasons I'm town.

Mena's claim never comes from one of my partners. (Mechanical)
Mena's lurking in one game to clynch the other thing makes no sense if I'm his scumbuddy. (Gamestate)
My paranoia about Mena in the other game isn't something I can fake. (Subjective)

Also, for bonus points, voteblocking, but I totally would subvert that in this setting because there are almost definitely V/CA people on some of your teams.