Newbie 1992 | Game Over

[Karnage]

Vote Count 2.3

Marashu (2) ~

skitter30, Maduisha,

Datisi (1) ~

Malakittens,

Not voting (4) ~

clidd, Marashu, word321, Datisi,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-04-05 13:00:00)

V/LA:

• skitter30 - Fridays and Saturdays

[clidd]

Ok, Karnage's post was NAI then. But still, mafia probably noted that TRQ was a mason with that initial joke.

If that is the case, I believe there is an SE player in the scum duo. I don't see

Scum!Newbie

selecting their kill out of the potential vocal threats, unless he has an argumentative condition to beat these players later, which means a non-newbie player there.

[Datisi]

Conclusion: Mafia was aware that TRQ's claim had been true since the beginning of the day. What happened next, such as reactions, self-confidence and proactivity that TRQ demonstrated only confirmed this feeling.

ok, so if you think the mafia realized trq is mason from the begining, does that tell you any closer on who the mafia *is*?

[clidd]

Datisi doesn't fit that profile, so a scum between Skitter and Menalque is highly likely.

I would like to hear Menalque's replacement on the current lynch and the reason for his vote.

[clidd]

Conclusion: Mafia was aware that TRQ's claim had been true since the beginning of the day. What happened next, such as reactions, self-confidence and proactivity that TRQ demonstrated only confirmed this feeling.

ok, so if you think the mafia realized trq is mason from the begining, does that tell you any closer on who the mafia *is*?

[Datisi]

[Datisi]

i'm probably being dense right now. will return to this later.

[clidd]

Wow, ok, the day's just starting and I'm already L-2.

I have a reason for thinking that I was wrong about skitt and that she is town. Also, Mena pivoting from town to town as scum doesn't make sense to me either so Mala is probably town as well. So that means the scum has to be in {clidd, Dat, Mad, word}.

I don't like how Mad jumped onto my wagon right away today. On D1 she jumped from Wu to me back to Wu, but then Mena was talking about how she was super town because of that. I know we can't ask him, but can anyone else explain how that action is town?

clidd/Mad and clidd/word make sense to me. so does Dat/Mad but less so. clidd/Dat doesn't make too much sense to me (clidd clearing Dat was based on Wu being scum, and with that pairing both know that Wu would be town). The dynamic between Dat/Mad on D1 and again today doesn't feel like they would be a team. Dat/word and Mad/word are possible - I don't remember much interaction there of note so I think I'd need to review that.

Why would

Scum!Marashu

suspect Maduisha? I understand the suspicion about my slot, but I believe it is illogical for him to raise doubts about someone who has a bigger townread by the majority.

[clidd]

I'm going to take a break too. Time to prepare coffee in the meantime.

[Malakittens]

Planning on giving my full run down tmrw

[clidd]

Ok.

[clidd]

I've been thinking.. Statistically speaking, is it possible that all three SE players are town ?

I believe that in practically every game I played there was at least 1 scum SE, but I didn't see it in the forum rules as something mandatory.

[clidd]

My alternative theory suggests

[Skitter, Menalque, Datisi]

as towns because of their period of posts between 135 to 174 where there was a short town dynamic dialogue among the trio.

And considering that Maduisha is potentially town too, PoE would suggest

[Marashu, Word]

as both scums.



However, this scenario would be very utopian and far from the game state we are in.

[clidd]

Another theory would be that both wagons were town yesterday

(Town!Marashu, Town!GeneralWu)

, so there would be a big implication on Skitter being scum for not predicting this and persisting in his push today. The possibility of Menalque being scum would not be ruled out, but it would be more timid compared to Skitter, since Menalque's push was significantly more dense and illogical since

Scum!Menalque

would be aware that

Town!Skitter

would be in a position to detect his inconsequential movement, therefore, he would be more cautious in encouraging the directing of votes from one wagon to the other. There was a motivation for that too (981, 994). The partner is something that would depend on who is killed during the night, because of PoE.

[clidd]

In any case, there is always a chance that I made a mistake in my personal read selection, so I’m looking forward to seeing what Malakittens will bring to us tomorrow.

Skitter remains the slot that I feel most uncomfortable about possibly going to lylo, considering that she is a player who normally advances to the late game as scum frequently.

And yes, Marashu is the main lynch today in all scenarios.

[clidd]

That's all, going to bed now.

[Maduisha]

it's, in some scenarios, much better to try to divert the lynch off of your partner than to just let it be, especially if you don't think you'll get flak for it later on

Okay, but do you actually think scum!Menalque does this? I mean expecting to not get the spotlight right after doing that while playing with people that know how he plays and were watching him carefully already. I really don't think him playing as scum would ignore the fact that you were already paranoid of him, at the very least.

I've been thinking.. Statistically speaking, is it possible that all three SE players are town ?

I believe that in practically every game I played there was at least 1 scum SE, but I didn't see it in the forum rules as something mandatory.

There's no such rule, no. All combinations are possible.

[word321]

...the thread sure is quiet right now.

My alternative theory suggests

[Skitter, Menalque, Datisi]

as towns because of their period of posts between 135 to 174 where there was a short town dynamic dialogue among the trio.

And considering that Maduisha is potentially town too, PoE would suggest

[Marashu, Word]

as both scums.



However, this scenario would be very utopian and far from the game state we are in.

...I find that PoE quite disturbing, actually.
I originally pushed mad to vote mar instead of gw on 810 for the same reasons she pointed out, and voted him myself until factors completely exogenous to me or mar (gw voting mar, wich actually disturbed me quite a bit) made me change my mind (wich, retrospectevely as skitter points out, was a wrong decision). I rly cant follow your train of thoughts from your own perspective on this, to consider that more likely than a scum on those 3.
Btw the possibility of no SE scum is 5/12, wich is quite high actually.

[Datisi]

If you've got anything you want to talk about word, I'm around. I think we're mostly waiting for Mala's revision of the game and vote explanation, so. I don't think I've got anything to add in the meantime.

[word321]

Yeah, I think we r all in the same boat on that. Mens slot is being suspected by a lot of players after all.
Im still trying to follow the events of the game. As I see, mar is going to be the next lynch.
What do u think about maras flip?

[clidd]

...the thread sure is quiet right now.

My alternative theory suggests

[Skitter, Menalque, Datisi]

as towns because of their period of posts between 135 to 174 where there was a short town dynamic dialogue among the trio.

And considering that Maduisha is potentially town too, PoE would suggest

[Marashu, Word]

as both scums.



However, this scenario would be very utopian and far from the game state we are in.

...I find that PoE quite disturbing, actually.
I originally pushed mad to vote mar instead of gw on 810 for the same reasons she pointed out, and voted him myself until factors completely exogenous to me or mar (gw voting mar, wich actually disturbed me quite a bit) made me change my mind (wich, retrospectevely as skitter points out, was a wrong decision). I rly cant follow your train of thoughts from your own perspective on this, to consider that more likely than a scum on those 3.
Btw the possibility of no SE scum is 5/12, wich is quite high actually.

That would only be valid for me if there was any evidence that

Scum!Word

would not be able to deliver his partner via buss. I don't see any difficulties in redirecting votes either.

But, fortunately, there are other indications that point to the improbability of the scenario that I suggested. The kill try, for example, is one of them.

[Datisi]

if mara flips green, then the town is about to have one of the most painful 5p lylos. i remember vaguely thinking "one scum in mara/skit" due to reasons i can't even fking remember right now, but in all honesty i would have to reread a good portion of the game to even know where to start.

if it's a red flip, then i guess mena!slot is the most logical partner.

Do we think that claiming VT is likely from scum!mara here?

this post (right after mara claimed VT) is bothering me. nobody (other than wu, who flipped green so it doesn't really matter) went "ah yes Mara claimed VT, scum would fish for PRs, mara is Town". If Mara flips red here, then I guess it implicates mena!slot even more?

having typed this out however, now there's a point that scum potentially knew we had Masons.

at this point i don't even know. i just want to hear *something* from mena's replacement i guess.

[word321]

The kill try, for example, is one of them.

What do you refer as "kill try"?

[clidd]

The kill try, for example, is one of them.

What do you refer as "kill try"?

Correction: ''kill''.

[Marashu]

If that is the case, I believe there is an SE player in the scum duo. I don't see

Scum!Newbie

selecting their kill out of the potential vocal threats, unless he has an argumentative condition to beat these players later, which means a non-newbie player there.

Could you explain this for me? Because this sounds a lot like you're patting yourself on the back here.