Mini Normal 2130: Mafia From Home [Game Over]

[profii]

I think battle mage is tunneling me but I hadn't really noticed

[Battle Mage]

I’m not gonna lie. I didn’t join this game to play mafia, i joined this particular game to play with one of my friends who invited me over here. But then they’ve been VL/A for 3 days and i’m stuck dealing with Battle Mage tunneling me. It’s just depressing.

Very touching. I don't buy it.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I do believe the game has been killed by this ongoing argument. Half the playerlist hasn’t posted in years.

[Battle Mage]

I think battle mage is tunneling me but I hadn't really noticed

Ah I was! But no more! Norweg is the play for today, I've decided!

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m not gonna lie. I didn’t join this game to play mafia, i joined this particular game to play with one of my friends who invited me over here. But then they’ve been VL/A for 3 days and i’m stuck dealing with Battle Mage tunneling me. It’s just depressing.

Very touching. I don't buy it.

You don’t have to buy it. Keep being a good tool and tunnel town. I don’t expect anything more from you.

[Riabi]

Ah ah ah, I've asked you 3 times to explain what YOU think. Why won't you?

Because i don't respect you as a player.

Would you answer the question if I asked? Because I think it's a valid question and I'd like to know the answer as well.

[Zantetsu]

opinions would work!

Why do you think you can trust anyone's opinion about how Norwegian behaves?

I agree there is at least 1 scum in that trio, although think we'll have a lot more clarity once Proffi is lynched.

What kind of clarity do you expect to get from a profii lynch about whether or not Norwegian and I are scumbuddies?

Well, if Proffi is scum, Norweg will be top of the list tomorrow. And if Norweg is scum, you are top of the list on Day 3. I've got it all mapped out.

OK so if profii flips scum first, then you think Norweg must be his scumbuddy. And if Norweg flips scum, then you think I must be

his

scumbuddy. And you have already stated that you think profii is definitely scum.

So by extension you must believe that you've found the entire scum trio on D1? Are you for real?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Ah ah ah, I've asked you 3 times to explain what YOU think. Why won't you?

Because i don't respect you as a player.

Would you answer the question if I asked? Because I think it's a valid question and I'd like to know the answer as well.

Alright.
Regarding Zantetsu. It is true that i initially questioned his claim about Unau because i found his defense weird and couldn’t understand the reasoning behind his claim. His response indicated mechanics related answers so i didn’t think i should dig any deeper. But considering further query might be important after all. Because i don’t see what could convince him so strongly about Una town unless for some reason they were masons. (Which seems unlikely.) so assuming Zantetsu can’t explain his reasoning it might be something to follow up on.

[NorwegianboyEE]

It seems likely that scum are in people not posting considering this gamestate.

[NorwegianboyEE]

But there is most likely scum in active posters as well.

[NorwegianboyEE]

2/1 ratio i’m guessing.

[Zantetsu]

Zantetsu can you just say why you don't believe Una shouldn't be the lynch? Because i feel like this is going nowhere.

OK well here goes. Unfortauntely Una's recent post and especially profii's recent post, both of which I isssued questions about, have kind of put a dent in my theory. But here it is, under a spoiler tag because it's quite a wall.

Spoiler:

I think that UnaBombaH is Informed that profii has a role. My evidence:

1. His first vote was on profii. That's some coincidence given that it's now profii that he claims should not be lynched.
2. In post 99 profii is first in his list of players he feels like he can read correctly. I think that is signalling that he knows something about profii.
3. post 258 bolds "I do not want profii lynched today". And says "I'll be a lot more adamant about profii once I see how this day pans out IF WE LYNCH SOMEWHERE ELSE." And the big one: "I believe profii could offer a lot for this game in the coming days, one way or another."
4. post 277 "And if you can't compromise with profii today, then go for it, and I'll try to do my best explaining afterwards."

(1) and (2) establish UnaBombaH association with profii well before profii was ever the target of any wagon.

In (3) UnaBombaH does not want profii lynched today. Why? There must be a specific reason. It can't be just because "he thinks someone on the profii wagon was scum", because that itself woudn't be evidence that profii is town since scum could be bussing. There is another reason UnaBombaH wants profii to live.

Also in (3) he hints that he will know more, and presumably we will know more, if profii is allowed to live - "I'll be more adamant about profii once I see how this day pans out".

And finally in (3) he suggests profii could offer a lot for the game in coming days. If that is not nearly a direct statement that profii has a role, I do not know what would be. And he says "one way or another". Note that, I'll talk about it in a second.

Finally in (4) he says that if profii is lynched he'll try explaining afterwards, which suggests to me that he knows something about profii that if profii is lynched, he will be able to explain presumably because he will be able to state that he knew that profii had whatever role profii has and give as evidence all of the quotes that I quoted above, and possibly more.

I think that there are two likely possibilities here:

a. That UnaBombaH is Informed that profii has a role, something like "profii is a roleblocker" or "profii is a cop". But his Informed info does not tell him the alignment, so it could be scum or town (remember - "one way or another"). Which is why he wants profii to live, to see if profii's actions can confirm him as town.

b. That UnaBombaH and profii are in fact masons together. This would give some reasoning to profii's first claim -- that there are no masons - because he knew that Saudade is *not* a mason with them and instead of claiming mason to prove it, he just said he is informed that there are no masons, which would discredit Saudade in the same way as claiming mason but without the bullseye on him that a mason claim would bring. Both have made some effort to keep the other alive in their recent postings. And profii has offered to allow himself to be the lynch, possibly because he knows that with all of the quotes from UnaBombaH that i made above, Una could credibly argue that he is a mason.

However, there is a big problem with (b). Una has stated numerous times that he would be happy to see profii lynched on subsequent days. This wouldn't make much sense for a mason to say about another mason. One could conjecture that he was just trying 'not to make it too obvious' that they were masons but with all of the other ways he has be 'obvious' in trying to keep profii alive, I don't know why he would have such a conflicted approach.

Therefore I think it's much more likely that it's (a) - Una is imformed of profii's role. but not his alignment.

Now we have to decide, does this make Una scum or town? And does it make profii scum or town?

Well taking Una first. The entire concept of a scum informed that a town player has a role just seems stupid to me from a setup spec perspective. It would simply be 100% utility for scum and would give them an immediate NK target. It just seems beyond comprehension that a game would ever be set up in this way. So Una, if informed of profii's role, must be town.

Now taking profii. He could be either scum or town, but if scum with a role, I just think he would have played a much quieter game. Certainly wouldn't have started with a fake informed mason claim. Just the way he's played, I would not call it careful in any way shape or form. I just expect scum to play more carefully.

Anyway, just assume for a moment that Una is Informed that profii has a role. Then go back and read Una's ISO. I feel like a lot of it makes sense with that assumption in place. You will see that as Una is

concentrating on profii

, he is signalling that he knows something about profii that the rest of us do not.

[Riabi]

It seems likely that scum are in people not posting considering this gamestate.

But there is most likely scum in active posters as well.

2/1 ratio i’m guessing.

What do you base all this on?

I mean, obviously, scum are either in the active posters or not (or both). But, what makes you say it's a 2/1 ratio? This whole line of reasoning seems like scum trying to look town without having to actually come up with any reads.

FOS Norewgian

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m basing it on me and Battle Mage being town. If i was scum in this situation and witnessed Norwegianboy/Battle Mage arguing i would probably stay back and do very little to disturb the current gamestate. Therefore i believe that most scum are staying back right now.

[Riabi]

I’m basing it on me and Battle Mage being town. If i was scum in this situation and witnessed Norwegianboy/Battle Mage arguing i would probably stay back and do very little to disturb the current gamestate. Therefore i believe that most scum are staying back right now.

Ok, but, that "2/1 ratio" bit is oddly specific. Where does that come from?

[NorwegianboyEE]

It is also the fact that nobody is really supporting Battle Mage. Showing that he is alone and not group!scum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m basing it on me and Battle Mage being town. If i was scum in this situation and witnessed Norwegianboy/Battle Mage arguing i would probably stay back and do very little to disturb the current gamestate. Therefore i believe that most scum are staying back right now.

Ok, but, that "2/1 ratio" bit is oddly specific. Where does that come from?

It’s just a guess. You don’t find it likely all 3 scum are lurkers do you?

[Riabi]

I’m basing it on me and Battle Mage being town. If i was scum in this situation and witnessed Norwegianboy/Battle Mage arguing i would probably stay back and do very little to disturb the current gamestate. Therefore i believe that most scum are staying back right now.

Ok, but, that "2/1 ratio" bit is oddly specific. Where does that come from?

It’s just a guess. You don’t find it likely all 3 scum are lurkers do you?

No, but I also don't necessarily find lurking/posting infrequently to be alignment indicative.

[Churros]

I'm here, page 8. I'm...vibing a lot with the scum reads on Profii. Her posting looks like she's trying to deflate the wagon on her and get a standing in the game but I don't feel it in a positive way.

[Churros]

UNVOTE: Saudade Not because my read has changed here,

I still think he should be lynched.

But, with all the evidence against Profii, I feel like the right move is to
VOTE: Profii

???

Didn't you say that you were voting Saudade so he would speak up? When did that switch to you being confident he should be lynched?

Also I haven't forgotten to make my post explaining my very early guts but I think it's better I catch up now because they are probably quite a bit outdated with 10 more pages in the game.

[Churros]

I'd guess Egix, Norway, Luca, in that order until you hit scum

Not Riabi? I thought you were pretty happy with the Norway and Luca votes?

Yeah, Riabi/Anorota vote on her weren't great but it doesn't feel like she's interested on them for some reason.

[Churros]

For clarity, I'm happy with a Proffi lynch today, but no rush on that.

For now, all I'm willing to say is that profii shouldn't be the lynch D1. I'll get back to this D2, I think.

And you’ve already made it clear you’re not masons.

At this point in time, although I might have forgotten something, I don't quite get the impression they did make it clear they aren't masons. It feels slightly rolefish to press on it like this but I also could see it coming from town!Norwegian anyway. Just to note.

By the way my town read on him had quite a bit of self-amusement because I wanted to town read him/wanted him to be town here, but I'm not really in that mood anymore so I'll just treat his slot normally.

I feel like his slot is pretty ok. Don't feel strongly either way.

[Churros]

We thinking scum!profii apparently?

For clarity, I'm happy with a Proffi lynch today, but no rush on that.

For now, all I'm willing to say is that profii shouldn't be the lynch D1. I'll get back to this D2, I think.

Like, these posts are a pretty shitty defense of someone he apparently believes is town.

My early TR on him might have been right after all, either that or his scum game improved quite a bit.

I'm not giving him a read yet though.

[Churros]

My way too early theory is that 72offsuit+1/2 in the profii wagon make up for the team

That 72off read seems to come from absolutely nowhere. I don't feel his posts up to this point actually let you have this much confidence even if you say it's early.

[Churros]

If anything though, we can see Norgey boy being open minded so whe we go look at my wagon, I'd probably rule him out more easily now

Oh wow, then you go saying something like this.
I have the complete opposite PoV on this.

Norwegian fits the scum agenda PERFECTLY.
Eager to jump off from your wagon to chase someone who is acting suspiciously..in this case? Me.

Why dont we lynch me today... if we wagon Una, it will get to l-1 claim and he might not be a VT.... lynching me isn't a big deal

I'm trying to get my head around the fact that Profi/Una doesn't seem like partners in the interactions but individually they are the scummiest slots right now along with Rabi and maybe Anotora. Mostly Riabi.